NAJAF, Iraq: Powerful Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is laying the groundwork for a political comeback two years after a failed and ultimately deadly high-stakes move to form a government without his Shi'ite rivals, multiple sources said.
His return, likely planned for the 2025 parliamentary election, could threaten the growing clout of rivals including Iraqi Shi'ite parties and armed factions close to Iran, and undermine Iraq's recent relative stability, observers say.
However, many among Iraqi's majority Shi'ite population are likely to welcome Sadr's re-emergence, especially his masses of mostly pious and poor followers who view him as a champion of the downtrodden.
Reuters spoke to more than 20 people for this story, including Shi'ite politicians in Sadr's movement and in rival factions, clerics and politicians in the Shi'ite holy city of Najaf, and government officials and analysts. Most spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
"This time, the Sadrist movement has stronger plans than the last time round to win more seats in order to form a majority government," a former Sadrist lawmaker said, though the final decision to run has not officially been made.
Sadr won the 2021 parliamentary election but ordered his lawmakers to resign, then announced a "final withdrawal" from politics the next year after rival Shi'ite parties thwarted his attempt to form a majority government solely with Kurdish and Sunni Muslim parties.
A dominant figure in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, self-styled nationalist Sadr has railed against the influence of both Iran and the United States in Iraq.
Iran views Sadr's participation in politics as important to maintaining Iraq's Shi'ite-dominated political system in the long term, though Tehran rejects his aspirations to be recognised as its single most dominant force.
The United States, which fought Sadr's forces after he declared a holy war against them in 2004, sees him as a threat to Iraq's fragile stability, but also views him as a needed counter to Iranian influence.
Many Iraqis say they have lost out no matter who is in power while elites siphon off the country's oil wealth.
CLERICAL NOD
Since March, Sadr has stepped back towards the limelight.
First, he held a rare meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a prominent cleric revered by millions of Shi'ites who played a central role in ending the deadly intra-Shi'ite clashes in 2022 that preceded Sadr's political exit.
Sadrists interpret the March 18 audience with Sistani, who stays above the fray of Iraq's fractious politics and does not typically meet politicians, as a tacit endorsement, according to six people in Sadr's movement.
A cleric close to Sistani said Sadr spoke about a possible return to political life and parliament and "left this important meeting with a positive outcome". Sistani's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Days after the meeting, Sadr instructed his lawmakers who resigned in 2021 to gather and re-engage with the movement's political base.
He then renamed his organisation the Shi'ite National Movement, a swipe at rival Shi'ite factions he deems unpatriotic and beholden to Iran as well as a bid to further mobilise his base along sectarian lines, a person close to Sadr said.
While some analysts fear the disruption of a Sadr return to frontline politics, others say he could re-emerge humbled by the routing of his forces during the intra-Shi'ite strife as well as the relative success of the current Baghdad government, including its balancing of relations between Iran and the U.S.
"Of course, there is always a greater risk of instability when you have more groups balancing power, especially when they are armed. But the Sadrists should return less hostile," said Hamzeh Hadad, an Iraqi analyst and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
"The political parties know it's best to share power than to lose it all together," he said.
A senior Sadrist politician said the movement might seek to ally with some ruling Shi'ite factions, such as popular Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, while isolating others including arch-rival Qais Al-Khazaali, leader of the powerful, Iran-backed political and military group Asaib Ahl al-Haq.
Advisers to Sudani said he was keeping his options open.
"There are groups in the framework that we have long-time relations with and could ally with before or after elections. What we don't accept is to get into deals with corrupt militias," the senior Sadrist said.
In Sadr City, Sadr's sprawling, long-impoverished stronghold on the east side of Baghdad, many supporters await his return in the hope this could translate into jobs and services.
"This city supports Sadr and I don't think he would forget us after all the sacrifices we have made for him," said Taleb Muhawi, a 37-year-old father of three who was waiting to hear back on a government job.
"He needs to shake things up when he comes back."

JERUSALEM: Israelis stood still and flags flew at half-mast on Sunday as the country marked an especially painful Memorial Day following the carnage of the October 7 attack.
At 8:00 p.m. local time (1700 GMT), sirens sounded across Israel, prompting a minute’s silence in honor of its fallen soldiers and civilian victims of attacks.
“Tonight, we have no peace, and there is no silence,” President Isaac Herzog said at a special ceremony on Sunday evening at Jerusalem’s Western Wall, the holiest site where Jews can pray.
“I stand here, next to the remnants of our temple, in torn garments. This tearing, a symbol of Jewish mourning, it is a symbol of the mourning and sorrow of an entire people this year.”
The annual day of commemoration has always weighed heavily on Israelis, who have fought numerous wars since Israel’s creation in 1948.
However, following the attack by Palestinian militants on October 7 and the ensuing war in the Gaza Strip, which has now lasted more than seven months, the day has new meaning for many.
Top Israeli officials have repeatedly acknowledged failure in preventing the attack, and on Sunday evening army chief Herzi Halevi said he was “fully responsible” for what happened on October 7.
“Every day, I feel its weight on my shoulders, and in my heart I fully understand its significance,” he said at the Western Wall ceremony.
“I am the commander who sent your sons and daughters into battle, from which they did not return, and to positions from which they were kidnapped.”
As with Jewish religious holidays, Israelis commemorate Memorial Day from sunset into the following day, with several events planned at the country’s 52 military cemeteries.
Memorial Day comes ahead of the country’s 76th Independence Day on Tuesday, when Israelis celebrate the creation of their state.
Palestinians remember the creation of Israel as the “Nakba” or catastrophe, marking the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.
For Israelis this Memorial Day is a stark reminder of the October 7 attack.
“The spirit of the fallen holds the promise of our future,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a separate ceremony marking the Memorial Day.
He said it was a “sacred mission to bring home all the hostages” held in Gaza.
Some 250 Israelis and foreigners were kidnapped by militants and taken to Gaza during the October 7 attack by Hamas.
Israel estimates that 128 are still being held captive there, including 36 who the military says are dead.
The Hamas attack itself resulted in the deaths of more than 1,170 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
“Today is like every other day we have experienced since October 7. We are all mourners,” said Reouven Adam, owner of a wine bar in Jerusalem.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign aimed at eliminating Hamas in Gaza has killed at least 35,034 people, most of them women and children, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry.
Israel has added more than 1,500 names to the list of soldiers and civilians killed in attacks this year since October 7.
Israel estimates that a total of 25,040 soldiers, members of the security forces and fighters have died on duty since 1860, when the first Jewish inhabitants of Jerusalem’s Old City created new neighborhoods outside the city walls.
Israelis are also paying tribute to 5,100 civilians killed in attacks since then, according to figures from the National Insurance Institute, which keeps the records.
The sirens will sound again on Monday at 11:00 local time, beginning a series of solemn events at Israeli military cemeteries.
These ceremonies will then pave the way for Independence Day festivities on Tuesday, the anniversary of the declaration of the State of Israel on May 14, 1948.
However some celebrations have been canceled this year because of the war in Gaza.