INTERVIEW: Djibouti president stresses importance of preserving peace in ‘sensitive’ Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region

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Updated 27 November 2022
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INTERVIEW: Djibouti president stresses importance of preserving peace in ‘sensitive’ Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region

• No alternative to Saudi Arabia’s leading role in region, Ismail Omar Guelleh tells Arab News en Francais

• French military cooperation treaty expiring this year will be renewed, he reveals

• Our people are ready to defend ourselves against Al-Shabab, stresses the president

DJIBOUTI: The president of Djibouti has lauded Saudi Arabia’s efforts to protect and ensure the safety of transportation and prevent “interventions” from sabotaging security of transportation along the “very sensitive” area of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

In an exclusive interview, Ismail Omar Guelleh told Arab News en Francais that efforts to hold an upcoming summit of the Council of Arab and African Countries of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in Saudi Arabia was the result of an initiative led by the Kingdom,  and that these efforts have been welcomed strongly by his country.

“This is a translation of the Kingdom’s seriousness, and the role it is playing in this area. Internationally, it will be a great representative for peace in the region and the world,” he said.




In an exclusive interview with Arab News, Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh praised Saudi Arabia’s efforts to ensure security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. (AN photo by Abdullah Al-Jaber)

The council, which consists of eight countries, was originally announced in Riyadh in January 2020, prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The member states of the council are: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and Yemen.

Announcing the news at the time, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said that Riyadh “is very keen to coordinate and cooperate with the member states of this council, to face these challenges and the risks that surround us from every side.”
The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are two of the world’s busiest shipping routes connecting Europe to Asia and the Middle East.

In the wide-ranging interview, President Guelleh also spoke about the devastating consequences of the Houthi actions in Yemen, which has resulted in the overthrow of the legitimate UN-backed government and a war which has now entered its seventh year.

“Djibouti fell victim because we have received a very large number of Yemeni refugees, and if it were not for the contribution, support and solidarity of the Saudi government, headed by King Salman, the situation would have been truly exacerbated by the behavior of Houthis, who have completely destroyed the country and have posed risks to maritime peace and security,” he said.


COUNTRY PROFILE

How Djibouti emerged as a commercial and strategic crossroads of the world


Host to a number of foreign military bases, Djibouti is remarkably home to both the US and Chinese armed forces in the Horn of Africa. It also hosts Japanese and Spanish troops and a diminishing French presence.

Whether or not Djibouti will renew a military treaty with Paris is unclear, with some observers considering this a sign of a deteriorating relationship, something Guelleh denies.

“The relations between Djibouti and France date back to the 19th century. The signed treaty expires this year; we will renew it,” he said. “We are in the process of working with the legal experts. However, there is no position to be taken because we are ... as we say in our country, a husband and his wife are never friends nor enemies.”

President Guelleh also warned of the consequences of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, saying that it has reached the point “where it risks having nuclear consequences” and that he believes that “neither Russia nor Ukraine will come out of it as winners.”

The following is a translation of the interview which was conducted in both French and Arabic:


Q: Talk to us about the strategic value of the planned Summit of the Arab and African countries of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and what it seeks to achieve?

A: Indeed, this summit is the result of a Saudi initiative because it has been too long. The Red Sea strategy is clear and after what happened in Yemen and the foreign forces interventions, and as you know, the Bab Al-Mandab Strait is very important for international security, the security of Arabs and all countries, and it is their responsibility as well.

This initiative was launched by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We welcomed it and for the first time the summit will be held, God willing, in Jeddah and the foreign ministers have prepared for it. This is a translation of the Kingdom's seriousness, and the role it is playing in this area. Internationally, it will be a great representative for peace in the region and the world.

Q: What are the hopes and aspirations of the planned summit for the region and for Djibouti specifically?

A: The results will be strengthening and assuming the international responsibility that falls on the neighboring countries … because you have with you NATO, certainly the institution that assumes responsibility for the safety of transportation and navigation in the world.

Q: Many of the participating countries, especially on the African side, do not get along among each other. How will there be security coordination and will conflicts be put to one side to achieve the goals of the council?

A: The only country that enjoys good relations with all the countries of this region is Saudi Arabia. And it is responsible for being the player and the only force that defends the opinion and the initiative, and provides the services to build peace between Port Said, Bab Al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden, and prevent the satanic interventions that always seek to sabotage peace in this sensitive region.

Q: But how will you coordinate among yourselves to prevent piracy and impacting global energy shipments? Will we see a unified force in the Red Sea for example?

A: I think that it would be appropriate to think and we will discuss attending the next summit to put things into perspective. Let each one assume their responsibilities. What can we achieve for the population and the whole world? The transition from this phase for the global navigation against all forms of terrorism or piracy that can emerge in the region. That is why we should demonstrate or look into how we can, in a collegial manner, address any external threats we might face.

 Q: Moving on to Yemen, how has the seven-year war impacted you so far and do you see the current truce prevailing?

A: As you know, Yemen is a country that is very close to Djibouti. It is 20 km away from here. And Yemen was a victim of what happened in Syria, of what happened in Libya, and what certain Arab states were truly the victims of: Some sort of conspiracy targeting Arab unity. And the Yemeni people were lured by another evil or another conspiracy, another blow, if you will, that came from a country outside the region.

Djibouti fell victim because we have received a very large number of Yemeni refugees, and if it were not for the contribution, support and solidarity of the Saudi government, headed by King Salman, the situation would have been truly exacerbated by the behavior of Houthis, who have completely destroyed the country and have posed risks to maritime peace and security.




Yemenis displaced by rampaging Houthis fetch water at the UNHCR refugee camp in Obock, Djibouti on March 26, 2016. (AFP file photo)

However, they have failed, as the vigilance of the international forces, namely the Saudi forces, prevented them from doing so. The attempts to block this route and create insecurity and prevent the guarantees from working in good conditions … if it were not for Saudi Arabia, we would not have this peace in this corridor.

Q: Does your position regarding the war against Ukraine stem from the same position which is supporting legitimate governments and opposing attacking another country’s sovereignty? How has that war impacted you?

A: You know, it is very far away. Ukraine is very far away from us. We have, since the beginning, declared our position, considering that the heavy shelling that is hitting civilian populations is not a solution and cannot be a solution. However, with what is happening, what is needed is dialogue and consultations, there is no other alternative.

The destruction continues to the point where it risks having nuclear consequences in this region. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will come out of it as winners and we will have in our region — even if it (the war) is happening far away — consequences that might affect us. However, up until now we have not been affected by any repercussions.

Q: Djibouti hosts military bases for opposing world powers, how do you manage these relationships and the conflicting interests of these countries? And what is the mechanism to regulate the presence of foreign troops in your country?

A: We have not yet had any complaints coming from the countries that have deployed some Armaments and are conducting exercises in our country. One should always look for the reasons behind everything.

The main reason of the US presence, which started after the incident (in 2002) of the American ship (USS Cole) that was the target of an attack in Aden, which was launched by Al-Qaeda in the region, and the fight against terrorism. The first one was our contribution toward fighting international terrorism. This is what motivated the US presence in Djibouti.

After that, the Japanese also wanted to come and they have measured the dangers facing their fleets, their commercial fleets in particular, in the regions of Somalia, the Gulf of Aden. They have also asked us to deploy a plane so they can monitor the coasts, even though we, economically, do not have the capabilities to assume all these responsibilities.




Chinese troops attend the opening ceremony on August 1, 2017, of China's new military base in Djibouti, the Asian superpower's first overseas naval base. (AFP)

We participated by providing them with a space allowing them to secure international navigation and international peace, our share of the responsibility. Then there was China, which also, for the first time in its existence, had a platform and a military presence in Djibouti. These countries are big countries. However, they do not have any problems among themselves in regard to their presence in Djibouti and that is why everything is going well.

Q: But how will changing global geopolitics impact you? For example, do you fear a US-China confrontation because of Taiwan? What if you were asked to choose a side?

A: We have not even considered this. It is linked and they are fighting there, in Taiwan, in the South China Sea. However, the battleground is not here. The war zone is not here and it is not nearby either. That is why there is no fear, in my opinion. There is no fear of a confrontation between China and the US in Djibouti, I do not think so. It is something that God decides, it is not up to us to decide it.

Q: There seems to be a diminishing French military presence here. Word is that the military cooperation treaty between you and Paris might not be renewed. How do you see the future of your relationship with France?

A: The relations between Djibouti and France date back to the 19th century. The signed treaty expires this year. We will renew it, we are in the process of working with the legal experts, all these people.




French troops take part in a two-week military training in the desert in Ali Sabieh, Djibouti, on January 30, 2021. (AFP)

However, there is no position to be taken because we are ... as we say in our country, a husband and his wife are never friends nor enemies. This is the metaphor that illustrates that we can be angry at each other but we are very committed in our relations. We are not planning to have problems with them. It is like a family, in a way. We might fight sometimes. However, it is not a big deal.

Q: But it is that French military presence, as well as the American one, that has driven the terrorist group Al-Shabab to threaten your country directly. Doesn’t this worry you? What measures have you taken to defend yourself?

A: We were victims of an attack in 2014. Some people lost their lives and others were injured (a reference to the 2014 suicide attack on a restaurant that killed three foreigners). Our services only have one purpose now, which has always been to defend ourselves, we are here to defend ourselves. There is no problem. They can say whatever they want but our people are ready.

Q: You have always stood against extremist views and perhaps this is something in common with the current reforms in Saudi Arabia. Tell me how are the changes of the Kingdom seen in your country?

A: We have been waiting for this initiative for a long time and now, with the initiative of the crown prince and the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, we are heading in the right direction. And our true religion, centrism and moderation, for a long time we have lived in Djibouti with this belief with ease.

However, the takfiris are seeking to turn half of the Muslims to infidels and expel them from the religion without mercy, without tolerance, and without any respect for Muslim women.

All of this created hatred among Muslims. We welcome and have welcomed moderation with our brothers in the Kingdom; the leadership and the people alike. It is in the best interests of the ummah, Arabs and Muslims, and to Islam all over the world.

Q: Apart from the religious aspect, how does Vision 2030 impact you? How do you see the Saudi-Djibouti relationship developing?”

A: Going back in time, since our independence and to this day, Saudi Arabia has always supported and helped us in development, and we always consult and coordinate with Saudi Arabia in various fields, from security to the Saudi Fund. I mean, we are very satisfied and we want to continue on this path while there is no alternative to the Kingdom’s leading role in the region.

 


No place to pray for Muslim workers in Italian city

Updated 59 min 23 sec ago
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No place to pray for Muslim workers in Italian city

  • Urban planning regulations tightly limit the establishment of places of worship, mayor says
  • Islam is not among the 13 religions that have official status under Italian law

MONFALCONE, Italy: It’s Friday prayers in the northeastern Italian city of Monfalcone, and hundreds of men are on their knees in a concrete parking lot, their heads bowed to the ground.
They are just a fraction of the city’s Muslims who since November have been banned from praying inside their two cultural centers by Monfalcone’s far-right mayor.
Instead, they assemble in this privately owned construction site as they await a court decision later this month to settle a zoning issue they say has barred their constitutional right to prayer.
Among them is Rejaul Haq, the property’s owner, who expresses frustration over what he and many other Muslims see as harassment by the city they call home.
“Tell me where I should go? Why do I have to go outside of Monfalcone? I live here, I pay taxes here!” lamented Haq, a naturalized Italian citizen who arrived from Bangladesh in 2006.
“Catholics, Orthodox, Protestants, Jehovah’s, if they all have their church — why can’t we have one?”
Immigrants make up a third of this city of 30,000 inhabitants outside Trieste, most of them Bangladeshi Muslims who began arriving in the late 1990s to build cruise-liners for ship builder Fincantieri, whose Monfalcone shipyard is Italy’s largest.
Their presence is immediately visible, whether the Bangladeshi men on bicycles peddling to and from work or the ethnic grocery stores on street corners.
For Mayor Anna Cisint, the restriction on prayer is about zoning, not discrimination.
Urban planning regulations tightly limit the establishment of places of worship, and as a mayor in a secular state, she says it is not her job to provide them.
“As a mayor, I’m not against anybody, I wouldn’t even waste my time being against anybody, you see, but I’m also here to enforce the law,” Cisint said.
Still, she argues the number of Muslim immigrants, boosted by family reunifications and new births, has become “too many for Monfalcone.”
“There are too many... you have to tell it like it is,” she said.
Her warnings about the “social unsustainability” of Monfalcone’s Muslim population have propelled Cisint to national headlines in recent months.
They have also assured her a spot in upcoming European Parliament elections for Matteo Salvini’s anti-immigrant League party, part of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s coalition government.
The League for decades has obstructed mosque openings in its stronghold of northern Italy. But the problem is nationwide in Catholic-majority Italy.
Islam is not among the 13 religions that have official status under Italian law, which complicates efforts to build places of worship.
There are currently fewer than 10 officially recognized mosques, said Yahya Zanolo of the Italian Islamic Religious Community (COREIS), one of the country’s main Muslim associations.
That means that out of Italy’s estimated more than two million Muslims, most are relegated to thousands of makeshift places of worship that “feed prejudice and fear in the non-Muslim population,” said Zanolo.
Cisint, who has been under police protection since receiving online death threats in December, complains about a resistance to integration by what she called a “very closed” community.
She asks why Arabic and not Italian is taught in the community centers and calls “intolerable” wives walking behind husbands or schoolgirls in veils.
In the run-up to European elections, the League has once again seized on illegal immigration to Italy — where nearly 160,000 migrants arrived by boat last year, mostly from Muslim countries — as a vote-winner.
Salvini has called the June vote “a referendum on the future of Europe,” to decide “whether Europe will still exist or whether it will be a Sino-Islamic colony.”
But Monfalcone’s Muslims don’t fit the stereotypes exploited by the League, armed as they are with work permits or passports.
“It’s not like we came here to see the beautiful city of Monfalcone,” jokes Haq. “It’s because there’s work here.”
Many Muslims said they feel a palpable sense of distrust, if not outright hatred, from some of the long-time residents.
Ahmed Raju, 38, who works at Fincantieri installing panels, has mostly prayed at home since the cultural centers have been off-limits.
Such is the reach of the mayor’s rhetoric that “even I get scared” about Muslims, Raju said.
Of the prejudice the community faces, Raju added: “You feel like you’re in front of a big wall, that you can’t break down.”
“We’re foreigners. We can’t change the situation.”
Outside a classroom where volunteers teach Italian to recently immigrated women, Sharmin Islam, 32, said the animosity is acutely felt by her young son who was born in Italy.
“He comes back from school and asks, ‘Mum, are we Muslims bad?’”
An administrative court in Trieste will rule on May 23 whether to uphold or strike down the mayor’s ban on prayer within the cultural centers.
Haq says Monfalcone’s Muslims have “no Plan B” if they lose, but worries even if they win the scars from the stand-off will remain.
Meanwhile Cisint has been actively promoting her book, “Enough Already: Immigration, Islamization, Submission,” warning Monfalcone’s situation could be duplicated elsewhere.
On a recent public holiday, Bangladeshis filled the city’s main square, from little girls with unicorn balloons to groups of young men enjoying a day off.
Looking on was barman Gennaro Pomatico, 24.
“The locals won’t ever accept them,” said Pomatico.
“But ultimately they don’t bother anyone.”


Philippines, US fire at ‘invasion’ force in South China Sea war games

Updated 06 May 2024
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Philippines, US fire at ‘invasion’ force in South China Sea war games

  • Thousands of troops are conducting maneuvers against a backdrop of increased confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels around shoals in the South China Sea

LAOAG, Philippines: US and Filipino troops fired missiles and artillery at an imaginary “invasion” force during war games on the Philippines’ northern coast Monday, days after their governments objected to China’s “dangerous” actions in regional waters.
Thousands of troops are conducting land, sea and air maneuvers against a backdrop of increased confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels around shoals in the South China Sea claimed by Manila, as well as stepped-up Chinese air and naval activity around nearby self-ruled Taiwan.
US troops massed at a strip of sand dunes on Luzon island’s northwest coast — around 400 kilometers south of Taiwan — let loose more than 50 live 155mm howitzer rounds at floating targets about five kilometers off the coast, AFP journalists saw.
Filipino troops followed up by firing rockets aimed at wearing down the attackers, before the two forces finished the job with machine guns, Javelin missiles and more artillery rounds.
Lt. Gen. Michael Cederholm, commander of the US First Marine Expeditionary Force, said the exercise was “to prepare for the worst” by “securing key maritime terrain.”
“It’s designed to repel an invasion,” Cederholm told reporters at the exercise site.
“Our northwestern side is more exposed,” Major General Marvin Licudine, exercise director for the Filipinos, said ahead of the live firing at the La Paz sand dunes near Laoag city.
“Because of the regional problems that we have... we have to already practice and orient ourselves in our own land in these parts,” he added.
Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea despite an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.
It deploys hundreds of coast guard, navy and other vessels to patrol and militarise the waters.
Just last week, Manila said the China Coast Guard damaged a Philippine Coast Guard ship and another government vessel in water cannon attacks around the disputed China-controlled Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on April 30.
More than 16,700 Filipino and American troops are taking part in the annual military drills — dubbed Balikatan, or “shoulder to shoulder” in Tagalog — in multiple locations across the Asian archipelago.
Maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines have raised fears of a wider conflict that could involve the United States and other allies.
Monday’s exercise came days after the defense ministers of the Philippines, the United States, Japan and Australia met in Hawaii and issued a joint statement on their strong objections to the “dangerous and destabilising conduct” of China in the South China Sea.
The ministers “discussed opportunities to further advance defense cooperation” and to “work together to support states exercising their rights and freedoms in the South China Sea.”
Last week, US forces taking part in the Balikatan exercises fired HIMARS precision rockets into the South China Sea from the western island of Palawan, the nearest major Philippine landmass to the hotly disputed Spratly Islands.
The US Marine Corps said the maneuver was a rehearsal for the rapid deployment of the missile system across the Philippines’ South China Sea coast to “secure and protect Philippines’ maritime terrain, territorial waters and exclusive economic zone interests.”
The confrontations between the Philippines and China comes as tensions have ratcheted up between Beijing and Taipei, which is about to inaugurate a new president regarded by China as a dangerous separatist.
Taiwan’s defense ministry said Friday it had detected 26 Chinese aircraft and five naval vessels around the self-ruled island in the previous 24 hours.
“To a degree, military exercises are a form of deterrence,” Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo was quoted as saying in remarks delivered on his behalf by an aide at a public workshop on Friday.
“The more we simulate, the less we actuate,” he added.


Italy’s pragmatic prime minister leads charge for EU far right

Updated 06 May 2024
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Italy’s pragmatic prime minister leads charge for EU far right

  • Her strong support for Ukraine has won her friends in Washington and Brussels, particularly after she helped persuade Hungary’s Viktor Orban to drop his veto of EU aid to Kyiv
  • Meloni has also worked closely with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, particularly on migration, a priority for the far-right premier

ROME: Having fostered pragmatic relations with Brussels, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is for many the “moderate” face of Europe’s radical right — and is leading the charge for June elections.
The ascent to power of Meloni’s post-fascist, euroskeptic Brothers of Italy in 2022 sent shockwaves through the European Union, sparking fears of a lurch to the right within a founding member of both the bloc and NATO.
But her strong support for Ukraine has won Meloni friends in Washington and Brussels, particularly after she helped persuade Hungary’s Viktor Orban — a long-time ally sympathetic to Moscow — to drop his veto of EU aid to Kyiv.
Meloni has also worked closely with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, particularly on migration, a priority for the far-right premier.
“At a European level, she’s trying to present herself as a sort of moderate conservative and mediator” with the rest of the radical right, noted Lorenzo Castellani, a political analyst at Rome’s LUISS University.
At home, Meloni has pursued a nationalist populist agenda focused on traditional family values, law and order, and migration, including a clampdown on rescue ships operating in the central Mediterranean.
It has raised hackles among the Italian left — particularly moves to exert influence over the RAI public state broadcaster — but nothing yet to spark alarm in Brussels, as with judicial reforms in Hungary and Poland.
Fiscal policy meanwhile has been relatively prudent, reflecting the constraints of being part of the EU’s single currency.
“She wants to be in many aspects the acceptable extreme for the rest of the European political establishment,” Castellani told AFP.
“She’s like the last island before the border.”

With her Atlanticism and pragmatic relations with Brussels, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is for many the "moderate" face of Europe's radical right — and is leading the charge for the upcoming European elections. (AFP)

More credible

Meloni heads the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament, which includes Spain’s Vox, Poland’s populist Law and Justice (PiS), and France’s Reconquete!.
Marked by a pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO stance, it is viewed as more credible by the Brussels establishment than the other far-right grouping, the euroskeptic Identity and Democracy group (ID).
ID includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France, Germany’s anti-immigrant AfD and Meloni’s own coalition ally, Matteo Salvini’s far-right League.
Rosa Balfour, director of the Carnegie Europe think tank, says both Rome and Brussels have benefited from a pragmatic working relationship.
“What the Commission has been doing is embrace Meloni and isolate Orban,” who is not part of either grouping, she told AFP.
“And that’s worked very well for Italy because Meloni has managed to extract concessions.”
This has mainly entailed EU support for the premier’s efforts to stop the tens of thousands of migrants who land on Italy’s shores each year on boats from North Africa.
Von der Leyen joined Meloni on the island of Lampedusa last year after a surge in arrivals, and the two women joined EU delegations to Egypt and Tunisia in recent months to agree new deals on energy and migration.

Building bridges

Analysts say the shift to a tougher EU approach on migration was well underway before Meloni arrived — but that has not stopped her claiming credit.
“We want Italy to be central to changing what doesn’t work in Europe,” she said during her election campaign launch last month.
She is standing in the vote — despite an EU rule barring government ministers from taking up their seats — and urged the European right to follow her example.
“We want to do in Europe exactly what we did in Italy on September 25, 2022,” she said.
But Castellani calls this a “bluff.”

With her Atlanticism and pragmatic relations with Brussels, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is for many the "moderate" face of Europe's radical right — and is leading the charge for the upcoming European elections. (AFP)


“The real game she’s playing is trying to enter within the European game of alliances,” he said, notably building bridges between the ECR and Von der Leyen’s conservative European People’s Party (EPP).
The divisions in the European right are echoed within Meloni’s coalition, notably between her and Salvini — they share similar domestic priorities but differ on foreign affairs.
Salvini’s League has a history of warm ties with Moscow, while he never misses an opportunity to criticize Brussels.
But he has been eclipsed. The League came top in 2019 European elections in Italy with 34 percent, but is now polling closer to eight percent, compared to more than 27 percent for Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.

Fresh face, skilled communicator
Surveys show voters are supportive of Meloni’s foreign policy — and less so of her migration efforts — but Lorenzo Pregliasco, founder of polling company YouTrend, says personality plays a big role.
Meloni is also seen as “more credible” than other Italian leaders, a skilled communicator and a “genuine figure, someone who says what she thinks,” he told AFP.
He notes her 2022 victory was driven by her image as a fresh face, the only party leader who did not join Mario Draghi’s technocratic government.
With the opposition still divided, as they were back then, he predicts she could stay in power for the full five-year term.
But by then the political landscape may be very different, not least if Donald Trump wins the November US presidential election.
Balfour suggests Meloni may have to reposition herself.
If Trump wins, “then you’ve got all the political leaders elbowing each other to lead the right. And Orban has already positioned himself there.”
 


Chad votes in first Sahel presidential poll since wave of coups

Updated 06 May 2024
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Chad votes in first Sahel presidential poll since wave of coups

  • Monday's vote pits military ruler Mahamat Idriss against his prime minister Succes Masra, previously a political opponent who fled into exile in 2022 but was allowed back a year later

N’DJAMENA: Chadians go to the polls on Monday three years after their military leader seized power, in the first presidential election in Africa’s Sahel region since a wave of coups.

Analysts say Mahamat Idriss Deby, who seized power the day rebels killed his long-ruling father Idriss Deby in April 2021, is most likely to win, although his chief opponent has been drawing larger-than-expected crowds on the campaign trail.
Deby has promised to bolster security, strengthen the rule of law and increase electricity production.
The vote coincides with a temporary withdrawal of US troops from Chad, an important Western ally in a region of West and Central Africa courted by Russia and wracked by jihadism.
Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 5 p.m., with some 8.5 million people registered to vote.
Soldiers began early voting on Sunday.
Provisional results are expected by May 21 and final results by June 5. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the votes, a run-off will be held on June 22.
Since replacing his father at the helm of the oil-producing Central African country, Deby has remained close with former colonial power and longtime ally France.
While other junta-ruled Sahel countries including Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have told Paris and other Western powers to withdraw and turned to Moscow for support, Chad remains the last Sahel state with a substantial French military presence.
The US, however, announced a temporary withdrawal of at least some troops last month, saying it would continue with a review of security operations after the election.

Opposition concerns
Monday’s vote pits Deby against his prime minister Succes Masra, previously a political opponent who fled into exile in 2022 but was allowed back a year later. Also running are former prime minister Albert Pahimi Padacke and seven other candidates.
Yaya Dillo, an opposition politician who had been expected to run against Deby despite coming from the same clan, was shot and killed in the capital N’Djamena on Feb. 28, the day the election date was announced.
Padacke has accused Masra of collaborating with Deby. But Masra has attracted large crowds to his own rallies.
Some opposition members and civil society groups have called for a boycott, citing concerns about possible vote-rigging.
That has raised fears of potential violence.
“This presidential election is of capital importance for the country because an entire people aspires for change,” said Baniara Yoyana, a former minister and magistrate.
“The process must be conducted with transparency to avoid any risk of confrontation.”
One Deby supporter, however, said he expected no problems.
“We want the election to go well and peacefully,” said Abdelkhader Sougui, a 28-year-old student.
“My wish is to go out and vote the morning of May 6 to confirm our victory... in the first round.”


Exiled Russian historian rallies fellow emigrants in dark times

Updated 06 May 2024
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Exiled Russian historian rallies fellow emigrants in dark times

  • Tamara Eidelman is part of a group of exiled anti-war Russian public intellectuals and cultural figures who are rebuilding their careers abroad
  • More than 800,000 Russians are estimated to have left the country in just the past two years after Russia invaded Ukraine

WASHINGTON: Russian dissident historian Tamara Eidelman was on vacation in Greece when Moscow’s tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022 and she realized that she would not be going back to her home country.

With her single suitcase, Eidelman, 65, flew to Portugal, where her daughter had been living, and began a new life in exile.
“I am operating under the assumption that I will not return. I am building my life in Portugal,” Eidelman, who has over 1.6 million followers on her history channel on YouTube, told AFP. “I want to come back... but if I sit every day thinking ‘When will it finally happen?’ I will go mad.”
Eidelman, who was declared a “foreign agent” by the government in Moscow, is part of a group of exiled anti-war Russian public intellectuals and cultural figures who are rebuilding their careers abroad.
While they cater to a large diaspora — more than 800,000 Russians are estimated to have left the country in just the past two years — unlike the previous waves of emigration from Russia’s calamities, they are able to continue speaking to those who stayed via social media, despite growing government restrictions.
“I think it’s one of the advantages of today’s emigration, if there can be any advantages, that our ties with our homeland have not been ruptured so drastically,” Eidelman, who wore a pin in the colors of the Ukrainian flag on her black blouse, said before a lecture in a community center outside Washington.
“Today there is an opportunity to exchange ideas. And, despite all the bans, inside Russia you can still access what is being done by those who emigrated. It is extremely valuable, it must be used and cherished.”

Tamara Eidelman, who was declared a “foreign agent” by the Russian government, is part of a group of exiled anti-war Russian public intellectuals and cultural figures who are rebuilding their careers abroad. (AFP)

While exiles are unlikely to have a significant impact on political life inside Russia, “they can be the keepers of ideas, the centers of expertise and civic education,” according to Alexander Morozov, a political analyst and lecturer at Charles University in Prague.
When political change occurs, “Those who have retained trust and their symbolic capital can play a role in Russia’s renewal,” he wrote in a recent paper.

During her first few months in Portugal, Eidelman, who worked as a history teacher at a prestigious Moscow school for more than 30 years before becoming an editor, blogger and public speaker, kept herself busy looking for a place to live, reassembling her YouTube team and signing up for Portuguese lessons.
But she would catch herself thinking she was there on a brief visit and that she needed to buy a bottle of Port wine to bring back to Moscow to her mother and friends. Then it hit her.
“I felt a tremendous weight pressing on me when things had settled down a little and I realized that I am going to be in this wonderful, beautiful country for a long time,” she said. “Of course, (President Vladimir Putin’s) regime will collapse, but I don’t know if I will be around to see it.”
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Eidelman’s YouTube channel has ballooned from some 500,000 followers to 1.63 million and a team of 30 people, with lectures on Russian, Ukrainian and world history — as well as a special presentation on Putin’s assault on democracy, which she delivered in a T-shirt that read “No Putin No War.”
“I want to express my unconditional support for Ukraine in this war and I believe that all its territories, including Crimea, must be returned to it,” Eidelman told AFP, referring to the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014.
During her lecture in an auditorium of several hundred Russian speakers titled “The Judgment of History,” Eidelman examined the painful questions of countries’ and societies’ culpability and responsibility for crimes from ancient Greece to Nazi Germany — with the clear undertone of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Prosecuting those who committed direct crimes against Ukraine will not be enough, Eidelman suggested in her interview with AFP.
“I believe that there cannot be collective responsibility, that a whole people cannot be guilty,” she told AFP. “But at the same time, there must be... moral responsibility, responsibility before one’s conscience.”
Alina, a 39-year-old Russia-born quality control manager drove more than eight hours to Washington from the southern US state of Tennessee with her husband and two children to hear Eidelman speak.
To Alina, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is “a crime against a neighboring country, but it’s also a crime against my own country because crimes are being committed in the name of people like me, who don’t agree with it.”
In these tragic times, Eidelman’s talk was a breath of fresh air, Alina said.
“When I listen to her lectures, I believe that there is — if not hope, then at least some light ahead for you to follow,” she said. “You get the feeling that you are not alone in all of this, even though physically you live apart from everyone.”
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