Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

Update  Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the weekly Cabinet session on Tuesday during which he approved the Kingdom’s budget for 2025. SPA
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the weekly Cabinet session on Tuesday during which he approved the Kingdom’s budget for 2025. SPA
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Updated 26 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia on Tuesday approved the state budget for fiscal year 2025 with revenues projected at SR1.18 trillion ($315.73 billion) and expenditure at SR1.28 trillion, leading to a deficit of SR101 billion.

The Finance Ministry forecasted Saudi Arabia’s Real GDP growth at 4.6 percent in 2025, up from the 0.8 percent estimate for 2024. This growth will be driven by a rise in non-oil sector activities, according to the statement.

The figures align with projections from the ministry’s pre-budget statement in September, showing a 4 percent decline in revenues, a 4 percent decline in expenditures, and a 12 percent lower deficit compared to the latest FY 2024 estimates.

The FY2025 forecast are based on a baseline scenario, which represents a middle ground between higher and lower revenue projections, taking into account potential changes in economic activity and global petroleum market conditions.

The ministry projects the deficit to remain at similar levels in the medium term, with SR130 billion in 2026 and SR140 billion in 2027, driven by the government’s strategic expansionary spending policies aimed at fostering economic diversification and sustainable growth. Revenues are expected to rise over the next two years, reaching around SR1.3 trillion by 2027.

The Kingdom’s total debt is projected to reach SR1.3 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 29.9 percent of GDP, reflecting a sustainable level to meet financing needs.

Revised projections for Saudi Arabia’s 2024 budget indicate a deficit of SR115 billion, with total debt expected to reach SR1.2 trillion, or 29.3 percent of GDP.

The fiscal year 2025 budget prioritizes maintaining essential services for citizens and residents, while accelerating spending on key projects and sectors.

It focuses on preserving fiscal stability and achieving long-term sustainability by managing government reserves and maintaining sustainable public debt levels, ensuring the Kingdom’s resilience against unforeseen economic shocks.

In a statement following the weekly Cabinet session, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman emphasized the government’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the Kingdom’s economic base. “We will continue to work on expanding the economic base and enhancing the Kingdom’s financial position,” he stated.

He also highlighted the pivotal role of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth funds—the Public Investment Fund and the National Development Fund—in driving economic stability and achieving Vision 2030 objectives. “These funds are essential to diversifying the economy and supporting long-term investments,” he said.

Saudi Arabia’s economy is advancing through strategic reforms and robust investment initiatives under Vision 2030, emphasizing diversification and fiscal sustainability.

Key objectives include increasing the private sector’s contribution to GDP, growing the share of foreign investment, and boosting non-oil exports.

The strategy also prioritizes reducing unemployment and accelerating investment growth by enhancing the business environment, providing innovative financing solutions, and attracting regional headquarters of multinational companies to establish a strong presence in the Kingdom.

Key enablers, including the PIF, are driving private sector growth, launching transformative projects, and fostering new industries.

These efforts, outlined in the 2025 budget statement, aim to boost social and economic outcomes while ensuring resilience against global challenges and long-term prosperity.

Breakdown of projected government revenues and expenditures

The ministry projects tax income at SR379 billion in 2025, making up around 32 percent of total revenues. This represents a 4 percent increase compared to the 2024 estimates. The majority of these levies, accounting for 77 percent, come from taxes on goods and services.

According to the ministry, this growth is driven by sustained improvements in economic activity, the ongoing development of tax administration, and enhanced collection processes, all of which have contributed to a boost in total tax revenues.

In terms of sector-specific expenditures, the military sector received the largest allocation at SR272 billion, marking a 5 percent increase compared to the 2024 estimates.

The health and social development sector followed with a 20.25 percent share amounting to SR260 billion.

General items with 14.95 percent share of 2025 budgeted expenditures will be allocated SR192 billion.

Financing the deficit

The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the National Debt Management Center develops an annual borrowing plan aligned with the Kingdom’s medium-term debt strategy, ensuring long-term debt sustainability.

This strategy not only diversifies financing sources, encompassing both domestic and external markets, but also enhances the Kingdom’s standing in global debt markets.

Additionally, the government is expanding its financing channels by tapping into bond and sukuk issuance, loans, and alternative funding models like project and infrastructure financing, as well as collaborating with export credit agencies.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the Kingdom maintains a robust fiscal position, underpinned by substantial financial reserves and manageable public debt levels.

This fiscal strength provides the government with the ability to manage potential economic shocks and meet its financing needs across short, medium, and long-term horizons, while securing favorable borrowing terms from both domestic and international markets.

The crown prince also reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms that have already improved Saudi Arabia’s credit ratings. While the projected deficit for 2025 signals short-term fiscal challenges, the government is focused on ensuring long-term economic sustainability.

He noted that this year’s budget will continue to prioritize economic diversification, with significant emphasis on empowering the private sector and fostering growth in small and medium-sized enterprises.

The crown prince stressed that, despite global economic uncertainties, Saudi Arabia is well-positioned to navigate external challenges and play an increasingly central role in regional and global economic stability.

“Our economy is well-prepared to overcome challenges,” he said.

He also emphasized the importance of long-term financial planning to maintain momentum on Vision 2030 initiatives, underscoring the government's focus on spending efficiency and transparent execution of the budget to meet its strategic goals.

Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to “Aa3” from “A1” on Friday, highlighting the country’s progress in diversifying its economy beyond oil.

The Kingdom is investing heavily in Vision 2030 initiatives, focusing on sectors like tourism, sports, and manufacturing, while also attracting foreign investment.

Despite lower oil prices and reduced production, Saudi Arabia continues to adjust its spending, delaying or scaling back some Vision 2030 projects while prioritizing others.

Moody’s revised the country’s outlook to stable, reflecting uncertainties in global economic conditions and the oil market. In September, S&P also upgraded Saudi Arabia’s outlook to positive due to strong non-oil growth.


Saudi crude output hits 8.95m bpd: JODI data 

Saudi crude output hits 8.95m bpd: JODI data 
Updated 6 sec ago
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Saudi crude output hits 8.95m bpd: JODI data 

Saudi crude output hits 8.95m bpd: JODI data 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose to 8.95 million barrels per day in February, marking a 0.34 percent monthly increase, according to the latest release from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative. 

Crude exports also climbed during the same period, rising 7.81 percent to reach 6.55 million bpd, the report showed.  

Refinery crude exports rose by 5.39 percent month on month in February to 1.41 million bpd, reflecting a 1.29 percent increase compared to the same period last year. The uptick was driven primarily by diesel shipments, which jumped 24.4 percent from the previous month to 668,000 bpd. 

Key refined products included diesel, motor gasoline, aviation gasoline, and fuel oil. Diesel accounted for the largest share of refined product exports at 47 percent, followed by motor and aviation gasoline at 18 percent, and fuel oil at 14 percent. 

Total refinery output reached 2.62 million bpd in February, a 6.6 percent monthly increase, with diesel comprising 40 percent of refined products, motor and aviation gasoline 24 percent, and fuel oil 14 percent. 

Domestic demand for refined petroleum products fell by 69,000 bpd in February compared to the previous month, reaching 1.71 million bpd. On an annual basis, demand dropped by 22.09 percent, equivalent to a decline of 485,000 bpd.  

On April 3, eight OPEC+ countries — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — reaffirmed their commitment to supporting oil market stability amid a positive demand outlook. 

In a virtual meeting, the group agreed to implement a production increase of 411,000 bpd in May 2025, representing a front-loaded adjustment equivalent to three months of scheduled increments. The move marks the beginning of a phased and flexible reversal of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts introduced in 2023, in line with the decision reaffirmed in March. 

OPEC+ emphasized that the pace of future increases may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions, with monthly meetings scheduled to assess conformity and decide on subsequent production levels. According to the latest schedule, Saudi Arabia’s required production for May is set at 9.2 million bpd. 

Direct crude usage 

Saudi Arabia’s direct crude oil burn rose to 283,000 bpd in February, reflecting a 2.9 percent increase from January, but showing a 21 percent decline compared to the same month last year. 

The reduction in direct crude oil use for power generation is influenced by multiple strategic and economic factors. 

According to the US Energy Information Administration’s 2024 report, 62 percent of Saudi Arabia’s electricity was generated from natural gas in 2023, up from previous years — a shift that has significantly reduced the country’s reliance on crude oil for power generation. The expansion of gas-fired capacity has played a central role in this transition. 

The International Energy Agency’s 2024 Oil Market Report also highlighted that Saudi Arabia is actively expanding its electricity generation capacity through both natural gas and renewable energy sources, in alignment with Vision 2030. 

Supporting this trend, the Saudi Power Procurement Co. awarded bids in 2023 for four gas-fired power plants, each with a capacity of 1.8 gigawatts, and began accepting bids for four additional projects in early 2024. As of mid-2024, the Kingdom has more than 21 GW of planned renewable energy projects, the majority of which are focused on solar power. 


Saudi Arabia tops emerging markets’ venture capital funding, overtakes Singapore 

Saudi Arabia tops emerging markets’ venture capital funding, overtakes Singapore 
Updated 20 min 33 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia tops emerging markets’ venture capital funding, overtakes Singapore 

Saudi Arabia tops emerging markets’ venture capital funding, overtakes Singapore 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has overtaken Singapore as the premier destination for venture capital funds across emerging markets after it secured $391 million in the first quarter of 2025.

The 53 percent year-on-year rise helped propel the Kingdom to becoming the highest-performing country across the Middle East, Africa, Pakistan, Turkiye, and Southeast Asia in terms of total funding during the three-month period, as revealed in the latest analysis by venture data platform MAGNiTT. 

While the standout $160 million series E round by fintech unicorn Tabby contributed significantly to the overall figure, the broader investment ecosystem showed resilience with non-MEGA deal funding, which are transactions below $100 million, rising 9 percent quarter-on-quarter. 

“This consistency signals a strengthening pipeline backed by sovereign LPs (limited partners) like SVC (Saudi Venture Capital), a growing cohort of accelerators, and successful exits like Rasan’s IPO (initial public offering),” according to MAGNiTT’s report. 

Saudi Arabia leads MENA funding and deal activity 

Saudi Arabia led the EVMs and continued its dominance in the Middle East and North Africa region. 

The Kingdom captured 58 percent of all MENA venture funding and accounted for 41 percent of transactions, far outpacing regional peers. 

According to MAGNiTT, the Kingdom achieved an 87 percent year-on-year increase in non-mega deal funding and a 437 percent rise in series A and B rounds, supported by sizable transactions such as those by Ula.me and Merit Incentives, each raising $28 million. 

The rise in Saudi venture capital investment comes amid a broader rebound in the MENA region. 

Total funding across MENA reached $678 million in the first quarter of 2025, a 58 percent increase year on year, despite a 21 percent decline in deal count to 133 transactions. 

The surge was supported by improved investor sentiment following late 2024 interest rate cuts across the Gulf, along with sustained sovereign fund activity and flagship ecosystem initiatives such as LEAP 2025. 

In terms of historical share, Saudi Arabia’s ascent has been significant. It expanded its share of MENA venture funding to 58 percent in the first quarter of the year, up from 39 percent in 2024 and 51 percent in 2023. 

This upward trajectory has positioned the Kingdom as the central engine of regional VC activity, reversing a period during which the UAE held the lead. 

The ecosystem shift also reflects a structural change in capital allocation. The first quarter saw non-mega deals rise for the fourth consecutive quarter, and early-stage investments in series A and B rounds increased by 50 percent quarter-on-quarter. 

In contrast, Southeast Asia reported its weakest early-stage quarter in seven years, with Singapore’s funding falling by 61 percent year on year to $377 million. 

The gap signals a shift in global investor preference as capital increasingly flows toward markets like Saudi Arabia, where macroeconomic stability, proactive policy, and institutional backing provide a conducive environment for venture growth. 

With 54 deals completed, the Kingdom reported the smallest year-on-year decline in deal count among the region’s top three markets, supported by a robust early-stage pipeline. 

Fintech dominates sector activity 

Fintech remained the most active and well-funded sector across MENA, particularly in Saudi Arabia, contributing 30 percent of all deals and capturing 57 percent of total regional funding. 

The sector saw a 362 percent year-on-year increase in funding, totaling $384 million, driven by Tabby’s $160 million MEGA round and strong underlying demand for digital finance solutions. 

Notably, 35 percent of all fintech deals in the first quarter of 2025 were in the $5 million to $20 million range, up 24 percentage points from the same period last year, demonstrating increasing maturity and scalability across the sector. 

Enterprise Software was the second most transacted and funded vertical, propelled by activity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, accounting for 75 percent of all sector deals. 

Within this segment, the productivity apps sub-sector achieved record performance with six deals, including Merit Incentives’ $28 million and Qeen.ai’s $10 million rounds. The enterprise category posted a 112 percent annual growth in funding to reach $61 million. 

Saudi Arabia drives top-tier transactions and investor participation 

While deal volume across MENA dropped 21 percent year on year to just 133 transactions — one of the lowest quarterly figures in five years — Saudi Arabia defied the trend, maintaining strong early-stage momentum.

MAGNiTT noted that deal activity in the up to $1 million bracket declined 8 percentage points year on year to just 31 percent, while deals in the $5 million to $20 million and over $20 million brackets saw increases of 4 percentage points and 3 percentage points, respectively. 

This reallocation of capital reflects investors’ growing appetite for scale-ready startups in more advanced funding stages. 

Pre-seed to pre-series A activity in the Kingdom saw a 14 percent increase, highlighting the nation’s strengthening foundation for long-term growth. 

The shift in capital allocation patterns also reinforced Saudi Arabia’s strategic focus. 

The share of deals in the $1 million to $5 million range rose to 46 percent, the highest proportion in five years, mirroring a broader pivot across MENA toward larger, more scalable investment opportunities. 

Simultaneously, the lowest-value ticket size, $0 to $1 million, fell to 31 percent of deals, down 8 percentage points from the previous year. 

Five of the region’s 10 largest deals originated from the Kingdom, including Tabby’s round, the sole mega deal of the quarter, alongside significant rounds by Zension, with $30 million and Merit Incentives. 

According to MAGNiTT, this concentration of large-ticket transactions underscores the depth of investor confidence in the Saudi startup ecosystem.

Investor engagement in the Kingdom was also evident in the breakdown of top deals. The nation hosted more top-10 deals than any other MENA country, with fintech leading as the most represented industry. 

Blue Pool Capital and Hassana Investment Co. emerged as the most prominent backers, jointly deploying an estimated $53.3 million across key transactions, with fintech accounting for four of the top 10 deals. 

Exit environment strengthens on record M&A activity 

Saudi Arabia’s momentum was further underscored by a robust exit environment, with the MENA region recording 21 exits, up 163 percent year on year, marking the strongest quarter for mergers and acquisitions since MAGNiTT began tracking. 

The Kingdom’s IPO pipeline also improved, adding another layer of attractiveness to its startup ecosystem. 

While the regional rebound was attributed to easing inflation, improved liquidity, and pre-US tariff optimism, MAGNiTT emphasized that: “Saudi Arabia’s IPO and M&A momentum are now integral to the region’s exit environment.” 

Despite this surge, the median time to exit via M&A lengthened to six years, up from five in 2024, reflecting continued challenges for early-stage startup liquidity. 

Geopolitical risks introduce uncertainty to venture outlook 

Despite strong regional performance, MAGNiTT highlighted emerging risks that could disrupt momentum. 

“While Q1 2025 was a positive start to the year … that momentum is now under threat,” said Philip Bahoshy, CEO of MAGNiTT. 

He added that the new US tariff policies have created uncertainty in both the public and private markets over the last couple of weeks, which can create a challenge for decision-makers who are likely to be in a risk-off mindset.

“In venture capital, this uncertainty is likely to impact three areas: the deployment of capital from LPs to VCs, VCs’ willingness to make decisions in uncertain times, and finally, startups’ ability to raise funds,” said Bahoshy.

He noted that while global volatility persists, long-term fundamentals in EVMs remain strong. 

“Despite global headwinds, emerging venture markets continue to present compelling long-term opportunities. MENA, in particular, is uniquely positioned for sustained growth thanks to deep pools of local capital, pro-entrepreneurship policy, and active sovereign support,” Bahoshy added. 

“As global investors diversify beyond traditional markets, regions like MENA and Southeast Asia are poised to attract fresh capital — particularly in tech-led sectors that are strategically positioned and less exposed to tariff volatility,” the CEO said.


Real estate demand in Saudi Arabia’s two holy cities hits $2bn

Real estate demand in Saudi Arabia’s two holy cities hits $2bn
Updated 22 April 2025
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Real estate demand in Saudi Arabia’s two holy cities hits $2bn

Real estate demand in Saudi Arabia’s two holy cities hits $2bn
  • High-net-worth individuals eye real estate in Makkah and Madinah as Saudi property sector gains momentum

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector continues to draw international attention, with high-net-worth individuals from nine Muslim-majority countries preparing to commit $2 billion toward property purchases in Makkah and Madinah, according to a new survey. 

The findings, part of Knight Frank’s latest Private Capital Report, show that 84 percent of global HNWIs surveyed expressed interest in acquiring property in Saudi Arabia — with a clear preference for its two holy cities. 

Nearly half, or 48 percent, of those respondents said they plan to use homes in Makkah as their main residence, pointing to a shift toward long-term occupancy rather than seasonal or purely investment-driven holdings. 

The trend comes as Saudi Arabia overhauls its property sector to position itself as a global tourism and business hub by the decade’s end, in line with its Vision 2030 diversification strategy. 

Faisal Durrani, partner and head of research for the Middle East and North Africa at Knight Frank, said: “The region’s sustained economic growth, underpinned by ambitious national visions and strategic policy reforms, has reinforced its position as a global investment hub.” 

Durrani added that real estate remains a preferred investment vehicle for ultra-high-net-worth individuals seeking to preserve wealth. “Across the MENA region, demand for prime and super-prime homes has reached unprecedented levels, fueled by both local and international buyers seeking security, stability and long-term growth,” he said. 

Earlier this month, S&P Global said the outlook for Saudi Arabia’s property sector remains positive in the near term, driven by population growth, rising tourism, and Vision 2030-led initiatives. The Real Estate General Authority projects the market to reach $101.62 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 8 percent starting in 2024. 

UAE draws global wealth 

Regionally, the UAE continues to attract high-net-worth migration. Knight Frank noted that 7,200 millionaires relocated to the country in 2024, boosting its total resident population of affluent individuals to 134,000. 

The report also found the number of dollar millionaires in the UAE stood at 130,500 as of December 2024, ranking it the 14th largest wealth market globally. The emirates also host 325 centi-millionaires — those with liquid wealth exceeding $100 million — and 28 billionaires. 

According to Knight Frank, 31 percent of the millionaires who moved to the UAE over the past decade came from India, followed by 20 percent from the Middle East and 14 percent from Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. 

“With a record-breaking 142,000 millionaires forecast to change their domicile globally in 2025, the UAE stands poised to capture a significant share of this wealth migration wave, strengthening its status as a wealth hub that has successfully transitioned from regional player to global force,” said Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, in a statement.  

Luxury sales surge in Dubai 

Wealth migration is translating into a property boom in Dubai, now the world’s most active market for $10 million-plus home sales for two consecutive years, ahead of London and New York. 

In 2024, the city recorded 435 ultra-luxury home transactions, compared to 434 the previous year. A record 153 such deals were closed in the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, while the first quarter of 2025 saw another 111, up 5.7 percent from the same period last year. 

“Dubai’s luxury residential market continues to defy gravity. Demand, particularly from international buyers, remains unrivaled on the global stage,” said Durrani. “In 2024 alone, Dubai not only led the world in the number of $10 million-plus home sales, but also topped total transaction value, with 435 deals worth $7.1 billion.” 

“Dubai has firmly established itself as the global epicenter for ultra-luxury real estate – surpassing legacy markets like New York, London and Hong Kong. It’s a staggering achievement for a market that, until recently, was considered relatively young,” he added. 

Palm Jumeirah retained its position as Dubai’s premier ultra-prime location, recording 34 transactions worth more than $10 million in the first quarter of 2025, with a combined value of $562.8 million. 

Emirates Hills followed, with 15 deals totaling $356.7 million. 

“Dubai has cemented its position as a premier destination for HNWI seeking real estate for personal use or for investment purposes, with a distinct focus by the global elite on making the city a permanent base or a second home,” said Nicholas Spencer, Knight Frank’s partner- Private Capital and Family Enterprises, MENA.  

Broader MENA trends  

In the wider region, Knight Frank said Qatar’s residential market is also drawing interest from GCC nationals and GCC-based expatriates. 

The firm identified $537.5 million in private capital globally that is actively seeking residential real estate in Qatar. 

Meanwhile, Egypt’s real estate market remains a key area of interest for GCC investors. 

“GCC investors’ interest in Egypt’s second homes market underscores the country’s appeal as a prime real estate destination. The combination of lifestyle benefits, potential for high rental yields, affordability and strong strategic ties to the GCC all add to the country’s allure,” added Knight Frank. 


Key tourism roles to be localized in Saudi Arabia as part of national employment push 

Key tourism roles to be localized in Saudi Arabia as part of national employment push 
Updated 22 April 2025
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Key tourism roles to be localized in Saudi Arabia as part of national employment push 

Key tourism roles to be localized in Saudi Arabia as part of national employment push 

JEDDAH: Hotel managers, travel agency directors, and tour guides are among 41 tourism roles set to be reserved for Saudi nationals under plans to boost local employment and reduce reliance on foreign labor. 

In coordination with the Ministry of Tourism, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development announced the decision, highlighting that the move targets leadership and specialist jobs in the private sector. 

Other roles earmarked for this localization designation include planning and development supervisors, tourism development specialists, procurement and sales professionals, and hotel receptionists.

The initiative is part of a broader labor market strategy to boost Saudization, a program launched in 2011 to increase domestic employment in the private sector through industry-specific quotas. 

It has helped reduce Saudi unemployment from 12.8 percent in 2018 to 7.1 percent by mid-2024, surpassing the Vision 2030 goal of 8 percent. The Kingdom has set a new target of 5 percent unemployment by 2030.

In a post on his X account, Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb reaffirmed his ministry’s commitment to job localization in partnership with the private sector. He also emphasized ongoing efforts to train and equip national talent through top local and international institutions to ensure a world-class tourism experience.

He said: “We are proud that our young men and women have become the frontlines of the tourism sector, conveying our culture and embodying the values of warmth, generosity, and authentic Saudi hospitality in their interactions with the Kingdom’s guests.”

This program will launch in three phases, starting on April 22, 2026 with the full Saudization of four tourism roles, 70 percent localization for 12 positions, and 50 percent for another 12. 

The second stage, set to begin on Jan. 3, 2027, will implement a 30 percent localization rate for one specific role.

Starting Jan. 2, 2028, the final step will focus on localizing 50 percent of leadership positions within the sector. 

In a post on his X account, Human Resources and Social Development Minister Ahmed Al-Rajhi said: “This move comes as part of the continued efforts by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development to support national talent and enhance their participation in the labor market, in line with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.”

The most recent localization push came in January, when the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development, in coordination with the Ministry of Health, announced new Saudization targets for the pharmaceutical sector. 

Starting July 27, community pharmacies and medical complexes must reach a 35 percent Saudization rate, hospitals 65 percent, and other pharmacy-related businesses 55 percent. The regulations will apply to companies with five or more pharmacy professionals.


Oil Updates — prices rise on short-covering, but tariff worries linger 

Oil Updates — prices rise on short-covering, but tariff worries linger 
Updated 22 April 2025
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Oil Updates — prices rise on short-covering, but tariff worries linger 

Oil Updates — prices rise on short-covering, but tariff worries linger 

SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as investors took advantage of the previous day’s losses to cover short positions, although concerns persisted over economic headwinds from tariffs and US monetary policy that could dampen fuel demand, according to Reuters. 

Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $66.68 a barrel at 09:20 a.m. Saudi time. The US West Texas Intermediate crude contract for May, which expires on Tuesday, was at $63.53 a barrel, up 45 cents, or 0.7 percent. 

The more actively traded WTI June contract was up 0.7 percent, or 45 cents, at $62.86 a barrel. 

Both benchmarks dropped more than 2 percent on Monday, as signs of progress in nuclear deal talks between the US and Iran helped ease supply concerns. 

“Some short-covering emerged after Monday’s sharp sell-off,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities. 

“However, concerns about a potential recession driven by the tariff war persist,” he said, predicting that WTI will likely trade in the $55–$65 range for the time being given ongoing uncertainty related to tariffs. 

On Monday, US President Donald Trump repeated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and said the US economy could slow unless interest rates were lowered immediately. 

His comments about Powell fuelled worries about the Fed’s independence in setting monetary policy and the outlook for US assets. Major US stock indexes dropped and the dollar index slid to a three-year low on Monday. 

“The growing uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy is expected to negatively impact financial markets and the broader economy, raising fears that it could lead to a decline in crude oil demand,” Kikukawa said. 

A Reuters poll on April 17 showed investors believe the tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the US economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50 percent. 

The US is the world’s biggest oil consumer. 

Progress in talks between the US and Iran, which on Saturday agreed to begin drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, could also weigh on oil prices and reduce supply concerns as the Middle Eastern country is a major producer. 

“Our view that Iran’s oil exports face imminent downside risks due to the enforcement of US sanctions has eased given ongoing talks between US and Iran,” Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note, adding that US sanctions relief was potentially on the table. 

Meanwhile, Russia’s economy ministry has cut its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in 2025 by nearly 17 percent from what it saw in its September calculations, according to documents obtained by Reuters. 

US crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week, while distillate inventories likely rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday, ahead of weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration.