New political fault lines in coronavirus hit Pakistan
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As the month of February came to an end, Pakistan recorded its first coronavirus case. Over the next more than 50 days, the virus spread within all provinces and administrative regions of the country challenging not only the leadership skills of the respective federal and provincial governments but also their governance capacity. Although a mantra of political unity against the pandemic has been propped up by almost all political entities, they have tried their best to exploit the situation and achieve political dividends. The politics of coronavirus have centered around thematic issues ranging from the arrival of infected patients in the country to the failure or success of governments in containing the spread of the virus.
Pakistan found itself in a unique and sensitive position as two of its neighbors, China and Iran, subsequently emerged as hotspots of the deadly disease. The federal government made a somewhat controversial decision to not repatriate Pakistani students in China for which it did receive harsh criticism from various political and media quarters but as it turned out, the decision helped the country prolong its corona free status and was eventually hailed as the right choice. But the government didn’t meet the same degree of success when dealing with pilgrims returning from Iran and they eventually became the first cluster of disease carriers into the country.
The federal government’s decision to open Taftan border crossing with Iran came under fire as it defied the very logic being used in the case of China. Once the pilgrims were back in Pakistan, it increasingly became clear that the local administration at Taftan lacked the capacity and expertise to handle the affair. The quarantine facilities were insufficient and dirty while authorities also failed to test all pilgrims as a number of them tested positive once they reached their homes across the country. The politics on the issue took a rather nasty and sectarian turn, but it seems the federal government has managed to evade at least for now, any substantial political cost for the episode.
Regardless of his active presence, Sharif and his party have failed to make themselves relevant within the pandemic debate in the country. And it is apparent that the political tussle ensuing out of the pandemic whether in the policy realm or performance domain, has been within the PPP and PTI, while the wildcard in all of this remains the country’s powerful security establishment.
Umer Karim
Once the pandemic started gripping the country, the political debate became further heated with opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) returning from London. Regardless of his active presence, Sharif and his party have failed to make themselves relevant within the pandemic debate in the country. And it is apparent that the political tussle ensuing out of the pandemic whether in the policy realm or performance domain, has been within the PPP and PTI, while the wildcard in all of this remains the country’s powerful security establishment.
After locking horns with the federal government on the issue of pilgrims returning from Iran, the Sindh government has actively advocated for a stricter enforcement of a lockdown to ensure virus dissemination can be contained. The federal government on the other hand has argued for a rather softer closure of public life as this could be disastrous for those working in undocumented sectors of the economy and often have to depend upon daily wages.
Clearly, both sides consider coronavirus governance mechanisms to be a make or break time. For Sindh government, the current episode is a unique opportunity where it can project itself as a competent entity by strictly enforcing a lockdown and containing the spread of virus relative to other parts of the country. Imran Khan’s narrative of a selective closure and giving relief to the most economically vulnerable segments of the society in the form of monthly payments is geared to tap into this political demography.
The civil-military relationship appeared to be a bit off-balance at the start when there was a discrepancy between the statements of the Prime Minister and the actions of his provincial governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhawa. Yet, the presence of the Army Chief in subsequent meetings held on the pandemic as well as one on one meetings between the PM and security hierarchy confirm that the personal chemistry between the leadership has again helped to streamline matters. The active presence of National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) chief Lt. General Muhammad Afzal in government meetings and defending steps taken by the government in media briefings shows that the military and civilian leadership are on the same page.
Clearly these are extraordinary times, and political calculations of all of these actors may also change over time. For now the confirmed deaths from coronavirus in Pakistan are relatively low, so politics on the issue can still be used for image building. But God forbid, if the situation worsens, the emergent risks will be unbearable for the whole political class of the country.
*Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, conflict in Syria, and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. Twitter: @UmarKarim89
