How serious an impact will reduced rice supplies have on the Arab world following India’s export ban?

Rice is a food staple in the Gulf but India’s ban on the export of non-basmati varieties owing to delayed sowing could lead to price hikes. (AFP)
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Updated 02 August 2023
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How serious an impact will reduced rice supplies have on the Arab world following India’s export ban?

  • Indian decision to prioritize the domestic market follows delayed monsoon rains and price rises
  • Effect of reduced supplies and higher prices to vary from country to country in the Middle East and North Africa

DUBAI/NEW DELHI: India’s decision to ban the export of several varieties of rice in order to ensure sufficient supplies at home is pushing up prices on the global market, a development whose impact on food-insecure countries is being viewed with concern by experts.

Although the ban does not include the popular basmati variety, which is a staple at Gulf dinner tables, it is triggering an increase in the prices of all rice varieties, adding to the vulnerabilities of import-reliant economies of the Middle East and Africa.

While the Indian restrictions might contribute to food price inflation in the Arab region, economists who specialize in the field of agriculture do not anticipate a rice shortage.

“The impact is not going to be restricted to exporters to the Arab countries, nor rice production levels in the Arab region,” Fadel El-Zubi, lead consultant for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Jordan and the agency’s former chief in Iraq, told Arab News.




Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said last week that the move would increase price volatility and should be reconsidered. (AFP)

“The impact will be seen on global prices in stock exchange markets.”

He said the price increases would not be limited to the cereal coming out of India but would apply to rice produced in other markets too, from the US to Australia.

“This is going to be the main impact. Yet, the increase in prices won’t be similar to the increase in wheat prices. (Also) the increase in rice prices will be for a short term. This is my expectation.”

El-Zubi was referring to the soaring price of wheat on the world market as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which before February 2022 were jointly responsible for almost a third of the world’s wheat and barley production.

Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports following its invasion led to fears of grain shortages and spiraling food prices, whose impact would have been felt most by the world’s most food-insecure nations, particularly in Africa.

Last summer, a UN- and Turkiye-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine allowed both nations to continue exporting grain. But earlier this month, Moscow withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, renewing fears of food-price inflation.

The ban on exports of non-basmati white rice imposed on July 20 by India — the world’s largest supplier of rice, accounting for almost 40 percent of global trade — has added to those fears.

Responding to the Indian decision, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said last week that the move would increase price volatility and should be reconsidered.

“In the current environment, these types of restrictions are likely to exacerbate volatility in food prices in the rest of the world and they can also lead to retaliatory measures,” he said.

“We would encourage the removal of these type of export restrictions because they can be harmful globally.”

But Indian food policy analyst Devinder Sharma believes the ban was the correct response to guarantee India’s own food security. He said the IMF was not justified in criticizing India’s market controls when Western nations continued to use vast quantities of grain for making biofuels.

“Despite the threat from the IMF, I think the Indian government has taken the right decision. India’s own domestic food security is of paramount importance,” Sharma told Arab News.

“Regarding the shortfall in the global supply, why don’t you ask America and Europe to cut down on ethanol production? The former consumes 90 million tons of food grain for its ethanol production, while the EU uses 12 million tons. They should stop it.

“India has to take care of its own food security. Imagine, 3 million people died in the 1943 Bengal famine because food was diverted. I think India has taken the right decision.”

For now, anecdotal evidence suggests few consumers in Arab countries are concerned about the impact of India’s export ban.

“We in Jordan consume basmati rice and not the white non-basmati rice that was included in the ban,” Jamal Amr, foodstuff representative at Jordan’s Chamber of Commerce, told Arab News.

He said Jordan bought most of its rice from the US, the EU, East Asian countries, Uruguay and Argentina.

“I am not stockpiling rice and I am not planning to. Things look normal to me,” Emirati housewife Umm Mohamed, a resident of Dubai, told Arab News. “My family and the domestic helpers all eat rice as a main staple.”




A farmer harvests at a rice paddy on the outskirts of Srinagar, India. (AFP)

The picture is the same in Saudi Arabia. “Rice is the main source of food in Saudi Arabia,” retired engineer Abu Akram said.

“In every main meal, we have to put basmati rice on the table. Saudi families usually store rice in quantities that can last for a month or two.”

He said he was not concerned about a possible price rise, but was thinking of asking his sons to buy extra rice, “just in case.”

In the era of globalization, involving free movement of goods, people and capital, the shopping habits of rice eaters in the Arab world are not immune to fluctuations in the fortunes of Indian agriculture.

India’s farmers typically start planting rice and other water-intensive crops from June 1 to coincide with the annual monsoon season. However, the country received 10 percent less rain than the average for June, with that figure rising to 60 percent in some states.

Although the monsoon rains have now arrived, the delay held up the planting of summer crops, a setback that experts believe prompted the Indian government to curb exports of rice.

Just a few days after the restriction was imposed, the UAE announced its own four-month ban on the export and re-import of all rice varieties, starting from July 28.

The UAE imports almost 90 percent of its food, making it especially vulnerable to fluctuations in global prices. According to Reuters data, the UAE was among the top 10 importers of non-basmati rice from India in 2020, buying almost 346,000 tons.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the UK and the US also feature among the top 10 importers.




A farmer spreads unpolished rice to dry along a highway in Toopran Mandal in the Medak district, some 55 km from Hyderabad on November 11, 2021. (AFP)

Large quantities of rice imported by the UAE are later exported after packaging in the free zones. The ban on re-importing will therefore affect countries that buy packaged rice from the UAE.

Other countries that are likely to feel the squeeze of India’s export ban are African importers such as Benin. But even big economies like China will be affected, despite it being a major rice producer in its own right.

Arab countries that are likely to suffer the most from India’s export ban are Egypt, Algeria and Sudan, all of which already face economic turbulence and the effects of rising wheat prices. In Sudan’s case, a deadly feud between two generals since April 15 has compounded the woes of a population ravaged by hunger and malnutrition.

Unsurprisingly, some observers believe India made the wrong call, undermining its carefully cultivated image as a reliable trade partner and aspiring leader of the Global South.

“I feel the ban on the export of rice is a knee-jerk reaction to control prices in the domestic market with elections in view,” said Gokul Patnaik, former chairman of India’s government-affiliated Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority.

“But it gives a very bad name to India which is emerging as an agri-exporter. Earlier, India was a net importer and of late it had earned a good reputation as an exporter. Countries which are buying from India will definitely feel this kind of reaction. To switch on and off is not good if one is to be a consistent exporter.”

He added: “What the government could have done was to control the taxes. It could have increased export tax. If you are going to be in international trade, you should always be open to import and export. You should not ban.

“Importing countries expect you to be consistent and you should not only be a fair-weather friend. Export-import is a question of trust. If you lose trust, people don’t want to continue.”




The ban on exports of non-basmati white rice imposed on July 20 by India. (AFP)

It is not just rice that has become costlier in India in recent weeks. The prices of tomatoes and other staples have also risen following the late arrival of the monsoon rains in some parts of the country and unexpectedly heavy downpours in others.

With heavy rains damaging standing crops in some regions, predictions now are of poor harvests and even higher prices of farm produce. Public anger over food inflation could become a clear disadvantage for the government, which faces several regional elections this year in the run-up to the national vote.

Brajesh Jha, a professor at the Institute of Economic Growth in Delhi, takes the view that India is ill equipped to be a major exporter, but believes the ban is largely tied to the general election next year, which takes primacy over international relations.

“India is an exporter of food grains. (But) the kind of arable lands and the population that is dependent on foodgrains (means) India cannot be an exporter,” he told Arab News.

“Rice is exported from those areas which are semi-arid. The way the population is increasing, India needs lots of food grains.

“No doubt India’s standing among the community of nations will get a beating with this kind of decision, but the election is way more important (for the government) than the impression people form about it.”

Other experts say the Indian government should have implemented alternative policies that would have avoided compounding the global food crisis while at the same time stabilizing domestic prices.

“India could have used this opportunity to be a global leader that is helping against a potential food crisis,” Anupam Manur, an international trade economist at the Takshashila Institution in Bengaluru, told Arab News.

“Instead, imposing a ban on an essential commodity at such a time will weaken India’s arguments against other countries weaponizing supply chains by imposing export controls on semiconductors, rare earth elements or medical application programming interface.”




Workers transplant rice paddy in West Bengal, India. (Getty Images)

He added: “If it truly wants to mitigate a domestic price rise, the government can open up the warehouses which have more than adequate rice stocks.

“India might not bend to international pressure, but if domestic production increases, it might yet make a grand gesture of relaxing the ban.”

While such a gesture would ease global concerns, El-Zubi says that many Arab countries, including Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Jordan, are in no position to meet their own demand for wheat and rice as they lack the necessary water resources.

“Jordan produces only 3 percent of the wheat it needs,” he told Arab News.

According to him, Arab countries with fragile economies face serious challenges from food shortages, so they should expand the sources from which they buy strategic food staples, diversify payment methods and broaden their food supply chains and routes.


Explosive drone intercepted near Irbil airport in northern Iraq, security statement says

Updated 7 sec ago
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Explosive drone intercepted near Irbil airport in northern Iraq, security statement says

The “Flight operations at the airport continued normally,” the Irbil airport authority said

IRBIL, Iraq: An explosive drone was shot down near Irbil airport in northern Iraq on Thursday, the Iraqi Kurdistan’s counter-terrorism service said in a statement.

There were no casualties reported, according to two security sources.

The “Flight operations at the airport continued normally and the airport was not affected by any damage,” the Irbil airport authority said in a statement.

The incident only caused a temporary delay in the landing of one aircraft, the statement added.

Jordanian and Vatican officials discuss promotion of Petra as destination for Christian pilgrims

Updated 27 min 8 sec ago
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Jordanian and Vatican officials discuss promotion of Petra as destination for Christian pilgrims

  • They say there is a strategic opportunity to integrate the UNESCO World Heritage Site into routes for Christian travelers
  • Head of tourism authority says highlighting Petra’s significance to Christian heritage itineraries could enhance Jordan’s position on global religious tourism map

LONDON: Officials from Jordan and the Vatican met on Thursday to discuss ways in which they can cooperate to advance religious tourism, including the promotion of the ancient city of Petra as a destination for Christian pilgrims.

Fares Braizat, who chairs the board of commissioners of the Petra Development and Tourism Regional Authority, said that highlighting the significance of the UNESCO World Heritage Site as part of Christian heritage itineraries could enhance Jordan’s position on the global religious tourism map.

The country has a number of important Christian sites, the most significant of which is the location on the eastern bank of the Jordan River where Jesus is said to have been baptized by John the Baptist. Several popes have visited it, including Francis and John Paul II.

Archbishop Giovanni Pietro Dal Toso, the Vatican’s ambassador to Jordan, confirmed the interest in collaborating with Jordanian authorities, and praised the nation’s stability and its rich historical and religious heritage.

Both officials acknowledged the strategic opportunity that exists to integrate Petra into pilgrimage routes for Christian travelers, the Jordan News Agency reported.

The Petra tourism authority recently lit up the Colosseum in Rome with the signature colors of the historic Jordanian site to celebrate a twinning agreement as part of a marketing strategy to attract European visitors, and to raise Petra’s profile globally as a premier cultural and spiritual tourism destination.

The Vatican itself is also a major tourism destination, for Christian pilgrims in particular. In 2025 it is expected to welcome between 30 and 35 million visitors during its latest Jubilee Year, a significant ecclesiastical event that takes place every 25 years.


Last lifelines in Gaza are being cut, UN chief warns

Updated 03 July 2025
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Last lifelines in Gaza are being cut, UN chief warns

  • Secretary-General Antonio Guterres again raises alarm over increasingly dire humanitarian crisis as restrictions on aid mount and civilians run out of safe places to shelter
  • He expresses grave concern over series of attacks in recent days that hit locations in which Palestinians were seeking shelter or trying to obtain food

NEW YORK CITY: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday said he was “appalled” by the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, condemned recent deadly strikes against displaced people, and warned that the enclave is on the brink of total collapse as fuel supplies run out.

He expressed grave concern over a series of attacks in recent days that hit locations in which Palestinians sought shelter or were trying to access food.

Guterres’ spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, read a statement that said: “Multiple attacks (have) killed and injured scores of Palestinians. The secretary-general strongly condemns the loss of civilian life.”

Civilians in Gaza are running out of safe areas in which to shelter as Israeli evacuation orders continue to expand, Dujarric added as he warned of a dire humanitarian crisis amid mounting restrictions on the delivery of aid and rising casualties among relief workers.

Israeli authorities issued a new displacement order on Thursday targeting parts of Gaza City, citing as a reason rocket fire from Palestinian groups. It affected an estimated 40,000 people, including those living in a displacement site, a medical facility, and a neighborhood previously spared evacuation orders since a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas ended in March.

“As of earlier today, about 900 families are estimated to have fled,” Dujarric said, adding that approximately 78 percent of the Gaza Strip has now been affected by the cumulative effects of more than 50 such orders. When combined with the effects on areas designated as Israeli militarized zones, the figure rises to 85 percent, leaving just 15 percent of the territory available for civilians to live.

“Those areas are, of course, overcrowded,” Dujarric said. “They also severely lack basic services or proper infrastructure.”

He described the remaining habitable zones as fragmented and unsafe, and compared the humanitarian conditions there to having more than 2 million crammed into Manhattan but

“instead of buildings, the area is strewn with the rubble of demolished and burnt-out structures without any infrastructure or basic support.”

The UN Population Fund has reported that an estimated 700,000 women and girls in Gaza are experiencing “a nightmare” situation as a result of lack of access to menstrual hygiene products, water and privacy. It said it has nearly 170 truckloads of supplies ready for delivery but they remain blocked from entering Gaza.

Meanwhile, the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said that nine more aid workers from five organizations have died in Gaza since last Thursday, bringing the death toll among aid personnel to 107 in 2025, and 479 since the war began in October 2023; 326 members of UN staff are among the dead.

OCHA also highlighted the significant obstacles humanitarian operations faced in June. Out of nearly 400 attempts to coordinate with Israeli authorities, 44 percent were denied, and 10 percent were initially approved but later obstructed. Only a third of the missions were fully facilitated, while 12 percent were canceled due to logistical or security issues.

Four out of 16 humanitarian coordination efforts were denied on Thursday alone, Dujarric said, hindering efforts to relocate medical supplies and clear debris.

“The space left for civilians to stay is shrinking by the day,” he added.

In his statement, Guterres underscored the fact that international humanitarian law is “unambiguous” in its requirement for civilians to be protected and their basic needs met.

He warned that the continuing blockade on fuel deliveries, now entering an 18th week, threatens to bring remaining humanitarian operations to a halt.

“Without an urgent influx of fuel, incubators will shut down, ambulances will be unable to reach the injured and sick, and water cannot be purified,” he said, adding that the UN and its partners might soon be unable to deliver even the limited amount of aid that remains in Gaza.

Guterres repeated his call for “full, safe and sustained humanitarian access,” and said the UN has a ready, proven plan to deliver aid “safely and at scale” to civilians across the territory.

He also renewed his appeal for an “immediate, permanent ceasefire” and the “immediate and unconditional release of all hostages,” and stressed that all parties involved in the conflict must uphold their obligations under international law.


UAE president, king of Bahrain discuss ties in Abu Dhabi

Updated 03 July 2025
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UAE president, king of Bahrain discuss ties in Abu Dhabi

  • Several Emirati and Bahraini officials attended the meeting
  • Leaders explored ways to strengthen Abu Dhabi-Manama ties in support of shared interests

LONDON: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan visited King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa of Bahrain at his residence in Abu Dhabi on Thursday to discuss relations between the two countries.

The two leaders discussed cooperation between Manama and Abu Dhabi, exploring ways to strengthen their ties in support of shared interests and aspirations for continued progress, development and prosperity, the Emirates News Agency reported.

Several UAE officials attended the meeting, including Sheikh Theyab bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy chairman of the Presidential Court for Development and Martyrs Families affairs, and Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy chairman of the Presidential Court for Special Affairs.

The Bahraini side included Lt. Gen. Sheikh Nasser bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, the national security adviser, Royal Guard commander and secretary general of the Supreme Defense Council of Bahrain, and Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, the first deputy chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth and Sports and president of the General Sports Authority of Bahrain.


Wildfires kill two in western Turkiye, little-known group claims arson attacks

Updated 03 July 2025
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Wildfires kill two in western Turkiye, little-known group claims arson attacks

  • The latest casualty was a backhoe operator, Ibrahim Demir, who died while battling the flames in the Odemis district
  • A group calling itself “Children of Fire” claimed responsibility

ISTANBUL: A wildfire killed a second person in Türkiye’s western Izmir province on Tuesday as blazes raged for a seventh day across several regions, while a little-known group claiming ties to Kurdish militants said it was behind dozens of arson attacks.

The latest casualty was a backhoe operator, Ibrahim Demir, who died while battling the flames in the Odemis district, the state-run Anadolu news agency said.

Earlier, an 81-year-old bedridden man who was home alone in the same area died when fire reached his house, marking the first death since the fires began.

A group calling itself “Children of Fire” claimed responsibility for “tens of fires across six Turkish cities”, according to a statement shared online.

The group, which is little known, says it is affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), designated a terrorist group by Türkiye, the United States and European Union. The PKK, which said in May that it was ending a 40-year insurgency and disbanding, has not commented on the claim.

Firefighters continued to battle flames with helicopters and planes dropping water over mountainous terrain in Izmir, while authorities closed some roads to the Aegean resort town of Cesme, Anadolu said.

Broadcasters showed footage of flames lining the main highway as water tankers arrived.

Türkiye, Greece and other countries in the Mediterranean are in an area scientists dub “a wildfire hotspot” — with blazes common during hot and dry summers. These have become more destructive in recent years due to a fast-changing climate.

Wildfires across Türkiye’s west have damaged around 200 homes and victims have been provided alternative accommodation, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said. Some 50,000 people were temporarily evacuated earlier this week from areas of fires fueled by high temperatures, low humidity and strong winds.

New fires also broke out on Thursday in the southern resort province of Antalya and in forested areas near Istanbul, Türkiye’s largest city, Anadolu said. Authorities have managed to contain several of the blazes.