With militaries upgraded, risks multiply in any potential India-Pakistan conflict

With militaries upgraded, risks multiply in any potential India-Pakistan conflict
This handout photograph taken on May 1, 2025, and released by Pakistan's Inter Service Public Relation (ISPR) shows military tanks taking part in military 'Hammer Strike', a high-intensity field training exercise conducted by the Pakistan Army’s Mangla Strike Corps at the Tilla Field Firing Ranges (TFFR) in Jhelum, Punjab province. (AFP)
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Updated 05 May 2025
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With militaries upgraded, risks multiply in any potential India-Pakistan conflict

With militaries upgraded, risks multiply in any potential India-Pakistan conflict
  • India and Pakistan have significantly upgraded military capabilities since nuclear-armed neighbors clashed in 2019
  • In particular, India believes that it was at a disadvantage in 2019 because it had to rely mainly on aging Russian jets

ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI: India and Pakistan have significantly upgraded their military capabilities since the nuclear-armed neighbors clashed in 2019, posing increased risks of escalation even in a limited conflict, former military officers and experts say.

Pakistan says India plans a military incursion after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly attack on domestic tourists in Indian Kashmir last month. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to punish the backers of the attack “beyond their imagination.”

Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack but has warned it will hit back if it is targeted.

In 2019, India carried out air strikes inside Pakistan after the bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir and said it destroyed “terrorist camps.” Pakistani jets conducted a retaliatory air strike and shot down an Indian aircraft during actions spread over two days.

The neighbors have fought three wars — in 1948, 1965 and 1971 — and clashed countless times since gaining independence, mostly over the Kashmir region which both claim. Both acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s and Kashmir is considered one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world.

Military experts say neither side will consider nuclear weapons unless pushed to the wall, but even a limited conflict would carry high risks of escalation.

They say such a conflict is likely to involve aircraft, missiles or drones, where India and Pakistan are considered closely matched, although India’s far greater resources would come into play over a longer period.

“Decision makers in both states now have a higher risk appetite for conflict initiation and escalation than prior to 2019,” said Frank O’Donnell, a non-resident fellow at the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, a think-tank in Washington, as they had managed then to clash without nuclear weapons being used.

“But without a clear mutual sense of the precise actions, that could trigger inadvertent escalation,” he added.

Both sides have acquired new military hardware since 2019, opening up new conventional strike options.

“Each side will think they are in a better position than last time,” said Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher based at the University of Technology, Sydney. “It is only when we see actual combat that we will find out.”

In particular, India believes that it was at a disadvantage in 2019 because it had to rely mainly on aging Russian jets. It has since inducted 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets, a top Western aircraft, with more on order for its navy.

To counter, Pakistan got one of China’s most advanced war planes, the J-10, a rough equivalent of the Rafale, in batches since 2022. It has at least 20 of the aircraft, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The planes carry advanced capabilities, with the Rafale armed with Meteor air-to-air missiles that operate beyond visual range. The J-10 is armed with the comparable PL-15 missile, according to a Pakistani security official who declined to be identified because they were not authorized to brief the media.

To plug the gaps in air defenses exposed on both sides in the 2019 conflict, India secured Russia’s battle-tested S-400, a mobile anti-aircraft missile system. Pakistan obtained the HQ-9 from China, which is based on Russia’s S-300, one notch down.

’CLAMOUR FOR ACTION’

“Most certainly in some respects we are better off (than 2019),” said Anil Golani, a former air vice marshal in the Indian Air Force, and the director general of the Delhi-based Center for Air Power Studies think tank.

“There’s a lot of clamor for action in the country but, in my personal assessment, both India and Pakistan are not looking for an all-out conflict,” he added.

Hanging over any conflict is China, India’s rival and Pakistan’s close ally and biggest supplier of military equipment. Although the US has urged India and Pakistan to ease tensions, it will closely watch any conflict for insights on Beijing’s aerial strength.

The Chinese plane and its PL-15 missile have not previously been tested in combat.

“It could be a contest between Western and Chinese technology,” said Faisal, adding “for India, there is the dilemma of how many air squadrons to commit to the Pakistan front, as it must also guard against China.”

China and India fought a brief border war in 1962 and the two armies have clashed, most recently in 2022, along their tense Himalayan frontier.

Pakistan has a fleet of F-16s, the US aircraft acquired decades back when ties with Washington were stronger. These F-16s were deployed in the 2019 tussle, leading India to lodge protests with the US, although New Delhi now enjoys far closer ties with Washington.

This time, to avoid the political fallout with the F-16 and to take advantage of having a more advanced aircraft, Pakistan will likely spearhead with the Chinese J-10, experts said.

But a drone or ground-launched missile strike is considered more likely since neither would risk a pilot being shot down.

India has turned to Israel for combat-capable drones, getting the Heron Mark 2, and it has UA Predator drones on order. Pakistan has acquired Turkiye’s Bayraktar TB2 — used by Ukraine in its war with Russia — and the Akinci, also from Turkiye, according to the Pakistani security official.

Amid the standoff, Pakistan tested a surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450 km (280 miles) on Saturday, to show that the armed forces were ready to “safeguard national security against any aggression,” according to a statement from the country’s military. Pakistan also has a range of short-range and medium-range missiles, capable of being fired from ground, sea and air.

There was no immediate comment from India on the test. India’s capabilities include the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile of about 300 km range as well the Agni series of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The 2019 skirmish almost spiraled out of control, with multiple missile strikes threatened before US intervention calmed the situation down.

Kaiser Tufail, a former fighter pilot in the Pakistani air force, said that India did not manage to establish deterrence in 2019, so it would aim for a more incisive strike this time, bringing more risks in its wake.

Modi said following the 2019 skirmishes that the country had felt the lack of Rafale fighters at the time, which were on order, and suggested that the results of the clash could have been different if it had the French fighter.

“If you go beyond what we saw in 2019, it is very risky,” said Tufail. “Nuclear-armed countries slugging it out is extremely dangerous.”


AI chatbot Grok sowed misinformation during India-Pakistan military conflict

AI chatbot Grok sowed misinformation during India-Pakistan military conflict
Updated 10 sec ago
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AI chatbot Grok sowed misinformation during India-Pakistan military conflict

AI chatbot Grok sowed misinformation during India-Pakistan military conflict
  • Grok wrongly identified old video footage from Sudan’s Khartoum airport as missile strike on Pakistan’s Nur Khan air base
  • Unrelated footage of building on fire in Nepal was misidentified as “likely” showing Pakistan’s response to Indian strikes

WASHINGTON, US: As misinformation exploded during India’s four-day conflict with Pakistan, social media users turned to an AI chatbot for verification — only to encounter more falsehoods, underscoring its unreliability as a fact-checking tool.

With tech platforms reducing human fact-checkers, users are increasingly relying on AI-powered chatbots — including xAI’s Grok, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and Google’s Gemini — in search of reliable information.

“Hey @Grok, is this true?” has become a common query on Elon Musk’s platform X, where the AI assistant is built in, reflecting the growing trend of seeking instant debunks on social media.

But the responses are often themselves riddled with misinformation.

Grok — now under renewed scrutiny for inserting “white genocide,” a far-right conspiracy theory, into unrelated queries — wrongly identified old video footage from Sudan’s Khartoum airport as a missile strike on Pakistan’s Nur Khan air base during the country’s recent conflict with India.

Unrelated footage of a building on fire in Nepal was misidentified as “likely” showing Pakistan’s military response to Indian strikes.

“The growing reliance on Grok as a fact-checker comes as X and other major tech companies have scaled back investments in human fact-checkers,” McKenzie Sadeghi, a researcher with the disinformation watchdog NewsGuard, told AFP.

“Our research has repeatedly found that AI chatbots are not reliable sources for news and information, particularly when it comes to breaking news,” she warned.

NewsGuard’s research found that 10 leading chatbots were prone to repeating falsehoods, including Russian disinformation narratives and false or misleading claims related to the recent Australian election.

In a recent study of eight AI search tools, the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University found that chatbots were “generally bad at declining to answer questions they couldn’t answer accurately, offering incorrect or speculative answers instead.”

When AFP fact-checkers in Uruguay asked Gemini about an AI-generated image of a woman, it not only confirmed its authenticity but fabricated details about her identity and where the image was likely taken.

Grok recently labeled a purported video of a giant anaconda swimming in the Amazon River as “genuine,” even citing credible-sounding scientific expeditions to support its false claim.

In reality, the video was AI-generated, AFP fact-checkers in Latin America reported, noting that many users cited Grok’s assessment as evidence the clip was real.

Such findings have raised concerns as surveys show that online users are increasingly shifting from traditional search engines to AI chatbots for information gathering and verification.

The shift also comes as Meta announced earlier this year it was ending its third-party fact-checking program in the United States, turning over the task of debunking falsehoods to ordinary users under a model known as “Community Notes,” popularized by X.

Researchers have repeatedly questioned the effectiveness of “Community Notes” in combating falsehoods.

Human fact-checking has long been a flashpoint in a hyperpolarized political climate, particularly in the United States, where conservative advocates maintain it suppresses free speech and censors right-wing content — something professional fact-checkers vehemently reject.

AFP currently works in 26 languages with Facebook’s fact-checking program, including in Asia, Latin America, and the European Union.

The quality and accuracy of AI chatbots can vary, depending on how they are trained and programmed, prompting concerns that their output may be subject to political influence or control.

Musk’s xAI recently blamed an “unauthorized modification” for causing Grok to generate unsolicited posts referencing “white genocide” in South Africa.

When AI expert David Caswell asked Grok who might have modified its system prompt, the chatbot named Musk as the “most likely” culprit.

Musk, the South African-born billionaire backer of President Donald Trump, has previously peddled the unfounded claim that South Africa’s leaders were “openly pushing for genocide” of white people.

“We have seen the way AI assistants can either fabricate results or give biased answers after human coders specifically change their instructions,” Angie Holan, director of the International Fact-Checking Network, told AFP.

“I am especially concerned about the way Grok has mishandled requests concerning very sensitive matters after receiving instructions to provide pre-authorized answers.”


Pakistani delegation arrives in New York to meet UN officials, OIC members after India standoff

Pakistani delegation arrives in New York to meet UN officials, OIC members after India standoff
Updated 27 min 20 sec ago
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Pakistani delegation arrives in New York to meet UN officials, OIC members after India standoff

Pakistani delegation arrives in New York to meet UN officials, OIC members after India standoff
  • Nine-member delegation to meet UN chief, UNGA president and UN Security Council members during visit, says state media
  • Development takes place following military standoff between India and Pakistan last month before US-backed ceasefire took hold

ISLAMABAD: A nine-member Pakistani delegation led by former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has arrived in New York to meet top United Nations officials and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) members, state-run media reported on Monday, as Islamabad prepares to present its perspective on its recent military standoff with arch-rival India. 

Constituted by the Pakistani prime minister last month, the delegation received a briefing from the foreign office on Pakistan’s military standoff with India last month. Bhutto Zardari said his team also received a briefing from the foreign office on contentious issues like the Kashmir dispute, “terrorism,” and India’s unilateral move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty.

Pakistan and India last month engaged in the most serious fighting between them since 1999. Both pounded each other with missiles, drone strikes and artillery fire in four days of conflict before US President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire on May 10. Tensions had soared after India blamed Pakistan for being involved in an April 22 attack on a tourist resort in the part of Kashmir administered by India. Islamabad denied involvement. 

“A nine-member parliamentary delegation led by Chairman Pakistan Peoples Party Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is in New York to hold meetings with the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, President of the UN General Assembly, as well as the Ambassadors of Permanent and non-permanent members of the UN Security-Council,” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan reported. 

“During the visit, the delegation will present Pakistan’s perspective on the recent military clash with India and to counter New Delhi’s disinformation campaign.”

It did not specify how long the delegation would stay in New York. 

The state broadcaster said that besides these meetings, the delegation will also brief members of the OIC at the UN. Bhutto Zardari, along with other members of the delegation, will also interact with media representatives during his visit to New York. 

The development takes place as India presents its point of view to the world on its recent conflict with Pakistan. The Indian government has appointed Congress party lawmaker and author Shashi Tharoor as the head of a delegation in its attempts to convince world capitals that Pakistan supports cross-border “terrorism” and to justify New Delhi’s attacks against its neighboring country last month. 

Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have fought two out of three wars over the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir since 1947. Both govern the territory in parts but claim its ownership in full. 

India accuses Pakistan of harboring militants who carry out cross-border attacks targeting citizens and law enforcers in the Kashmir territory that it administers. Pakistan denies the allegations and says it only extends diplomatic and moral support to the people of Kashmir. 

While the ceasefire between the two countries has continued to hold since last month, tensions persist as India vows to hold in abeyance the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan has said any attempts to divert or stop its flow of water would be considered an “act of war.”


One killed, four injured in IED blast in southwestern Pakistan

One killed, four injured in IED blast in southwestern Pakistan
Updated 02 June 2025
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One killed, four injured in IED blast in southwestern Pakistan

One killed, four injured in IED blast in southwestern Pakistan
  • Unidentified individuals attached magnetic IED to vehicle in Quetta city, says police official
  • No group has claimed responsibility but suspicion likely to fall on militant groups in Balochistan

QUETTA: One person was killed while four others were injured in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province on Sunday night, a police official confirmed.

Police said the blast took place at Brewery Road near the western bypass in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s restive Balochistan. The official confirmed that a vehicle with two people in it exploded due to the blast, injuring passersby on the busy road. 

“Unidentified individuals attached a magnetic IED to a private vehicle which exploded in Quetta city,” Mehmood Kharoti, the station house officer at Brewery Road, told Arab News.

“One civilian named Hussain Ali, a resident of Kalat city, was killed in the attack and four people including three passersby were injured,” he added. 

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but suspicion is likely to fall on ethnic Baloch separatist groups involved in targeting law enforcers and state-backed tribal leaders in the province. 

Kharoti said police were investigating the possible motives behind the attack. 

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest but most impoverished province, has been the site of a long-running insurgency that has intensified in recent months, with separatist militants attacking security forces, government officials and installations and people from other provinces who they see as “outsiders.”

The Pakistani government says it has launched several development schemes relating to infrastructure, health and education for some 15 million people of Balochistan, which is also home to a deep seaport being built by China, gold, copper and coal mines, and has a long coast on the Arabian Sea.

The most prominent of these separatist militant groups in the province is the Baloch Liberation Army, which has carried out several attacks against law enforcers and political leaders considered close to the military leadership. 

Balochistan has seen a spike in militant violence in recent days. An IED blast killed two tribal leaders and injured seven others on Saturday in a remote mountainous town in Quetta district. 

In March, BLA fighters stormed a passenger train in Balochistan and held hostage hundreds of passengers before the military launched an operation to rescue them. 

Pakistan’s government accuses India of arming and funding separatist militant groups against the state, an allegation that New Delhi has repeatedly denied. The BLA and other similar groups accuse Islamabad of denying the local Baloch population a share in the province’s natural resources. Pakistan’s government and military deny the allegations. 


Militants free two customs officials months after abduction in Pakistan’s northwest

Militants free two customs officials months after abduction in Pakistan’s northwest
Updated 02 June 2025
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Militants free two customs officials months after abduction in Pakistan’s northwest

Militants free two customs officials months after abduction in Pakistan’s northwest
  • The incident highlights persistent security challenges in Pakistan’s northwestern tribal districts that border Afghanistan
  • The development comes amid a thaw in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations which were strained by a surge in militancy in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani Taliban militants have freed two customs officials months after they were abducted in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, police and local officials said on Sunday.

Pakistan Customs Superintendent Nisar Abbasi, Inspector Khushal Khan and Saif-ur-Rehman, president of a local chambers of commerce, were abducted in KP’s South Waziristan district in Feb. this year, according to Deputy Commissioner Nasir Khan.

While the kidnappers released Rehman the same day, the two customs officials remained in captivity and it took months of efforts by tribal elders and members of the Lower South Waziristan Chambers of Commerce to negotiate their release.

“The officers have returned safely after their captors let them go,” Habib Islam, a police spokesperson in South Waziristan district that borders Afghanistan, told Arab News.

“Their release was made possible through extensive negotiations involving multiple stakeholders.”

The development highlights persistent security challenges in Pakistan’s northwestern tribal districts where militant groups, particularly the Pakistani Taliban, have mounted their attacks against security forces, besides targeted killings and kidnappings of law enforcers and government officials.

It also comes amid a thaw in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations which were strained by a surge in militancy in Pakistan’s western regions that border Afghanistan. Islamabad frequently blamed Afghanistan for the surge in militant activities, an allegation denied by Kabul.

However, both countries have sought to mend ties in recent months and last week announced to upgrade their diplomatic missions in Islamabad and Kabul to the ambassadorial rank.

Rehman, president of the Lower South Waziristan Chambers of Commerce and Industry who was released shortly after his kidnapping along with the two customs officials, said the kidnappers had initially demanded the government free their detained associates in return for the release of the two customs officials.

“When it became clear that the government would not meet their demands even after several months, the abductors eventually relented to tribal mediation and agreed to release the officials,” he told Arab News, adding that both officials were in good health and no ransom was paid against their release. 

On Jan. 9, the Pakistani Taliban kidnapped more than a dozen workers of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), which is responsible for nuclear energy projects, from the volatile Lakki Marwat district, according to Lakki Marwat police.

Eight of the abductees were released shortly after the kidnapping, while the militants released one more and body of another hostage on Jan. 25. The fate of the remaining captives remains unknown.

Last year, the militant group had kidnapped District and Sessions Judge Shakirullah Marwat near KP’s Dera Ismail Khan district who was later recovered in a joint operation by police and security forces, officials said.


Pakistan police say four militants killed in operation in Punjab’s Dera Ghazi Khan

Pakistan police say four militants killed in operation in Punjab’s Dera Ghazi Khan
Updated 01 June 2025
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Pakistan police say four militants killed in operation in Punjab’s Dera Ghazi Khan

Pakistan police say four militants killed in operation in Punjab’s Dera Ghazi Khan
  • The operation in DG Khan was launched on intelligence reports about militant movement near the Punjab-Khyber Pakhtunkhwa border
  • Pakistan is currently battling twin insurgencies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which Punjab’s DG Khan district borders

ISLAMABAD: Police killed four militants in a successful operation in Dera Ghazi Khan district of Pakistan’s eastern Punjab province, Pakistani state media reported on Sunday.

The Dera Ghazi Khan, or DG Khan, district borders the southwestern Balochistan and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) where Pakistan has been battling twin insurgencies.

The operation was conducted in DG Khan’s Kot Mubarak area and the law enforcers recovered a sizeable cache of heavy weapons and ammunition from the site of the encounter.

“The swift and effective action of the police teams thwarted the terrorists’ nefarious plans,” the state-run Radio Pakistan broadcaster reported, citing officials.

“Inspector General of Punjab Police Dr. Usman Anwar commended the efforts of the Dera Ghazi Khan Police and said the Punjab police stand as a strong barrier against anti-state elements.”

Pakistan is currently battling twin insurgencies: one led by religiously motivated groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), mainly in its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province and the other by ethno-nationalist Baloch separatist groups in Balochistan.

Militants often seek refuge in border areas of neighboring provinces amid intensifying counter-insurgency operations in KP and Balochistan.

The operation in DG Khan was launched on intelligence reports about militant movement near the Punjab-Khyber Pakhtunkhwa border, the APP news agency reported, citing a police spokesman.

“Some suspects fled using cover from bushes and mounds,” it said. “A search-and-sweep operation is ongoing to track them down.”