As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe

A US nuclear-powered Ohio-class submarine is in the Middle East to help prevent the Israel-Hamas war from spiraling into a broader conflict, the Pentagon said on November 6, 2023. (AFP file photo)
A US nuclear-powered Ohio-class submarine is in the Middle East to help prevent the Israel-Hamas war from spiraling into a broader conflict, the Pentagon said on November 6, 2023. (AFP file photo)
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Updated 09 October 2024
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As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe

As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe
  • Israel has a broad range of choices of targets – from Iranian government buildings and military bases to sensitive oil installations to heavily fortified nuclear facilities hidden deep below ground
  • “Unlike Lebanon and Gaza, every Israeli attack on Iran has international and global repercussions,” said Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem

JERUSALEM: Israel has promised to retaliate for Iran’s massive missile attack last week. How it does so involves great risk, and could have major repercussions for the archenemies, the Middle East and the world.
Israel’s options range from symbolic strikes on military targets to crippling attacks on Iran’s vital oil industry or its secretive and heavily fortified nuclear program.
The intensity and timing of any retaliatory strike was expected to top the agenda of a planned meeting this week at the Pentagon between Israel’s defense minister and his US counterpart. But late Tuesday, the Pentagon said the meeting was abruptly postponed.
In a sign of possible disagreement over the right approach, President Joe Biden has already urged Israel not to hit Iran’s nuclear program and discouraged it from hitting the oil industry.




A view of a road sign directing towards the city of Dimona, close to the nuclear power plant in the southern Israeli Negev desert. (AFP file photo)

The Associated Press spoke to two former Israeli prime ministers and other experts to explore Israel’s options. There is broad consensus that Israel must strike back, but deep disagreement over the best way to do so.
“The question is not whether Israel will retaliate or respond,” former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told AP. “The question is which way.”
Why is Israel threatening Iran?
Israel and Iran have been involved in a bitter shadow war for years — primarily through Israel’s battles against Iranian-backed militant groups across the region. Israel also has been suspected of killing Iranian nuclear scientists and carrying out attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, but it rarely acknowledges involvement.
Direct clashes have been rare. But things changed after Hamas attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023, and Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel the following day. Both groups receive support from Iran.
In April, Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles toward Israel after accusing it of killing two Iranian generals in a diplomatic compound in Syria. Nearly all of the missiles malfunctioned or were intercepted, and Israel responded with a limited strike that signaled it did not want any further escalation.
After last week’s Iranian attack, Israel signaled its next response would be different.
Iran said the barrage of at least 180 ballistic missiles was to avenge a series of Israeli strikes against its close allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, including the assassination of the group’s longtime leader. Although the missiles caused little damage or casualties, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had made a “big mistake and it will pay for it.” Members of his hard-line coalition have called for a harsh response.
What options does Israel have?
Israel has a broad range of choices of targets – from Iranian government buildings and military bases to sensitive oil installations to heavily fortified nuclear facilities hidden deep below ground. Israel accuses Iran of developing nuclear weapons — a charge Iran denies.
Striking anywhere in Iran is a logistical challenge for Israel. Warplanes would need to fly over 1,500 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) to their target, requiring a complicated midair refueling operation, potentially over hostile skies. Any strike would also mean confronting Iran’s Russian-made air-defense systems.
“Remember that Iran is 1,500, 1,600 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) away from Israel, and you have countries in between — Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia. Some are friends. Some are foes,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a former adviser on Iranian affairs on Israel’s National Security Council.
“You don’t want to embarrass your friends. You don’t want to get hostile fire from other countries,” he said.
Olmert, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2009, said Israel is more than capable of coping with these challenges.
“We have the capabilities,” he said. “I’m not certain it would be wise and responsible to expose them.”
Even if Israel has the means, there are diplomatic considerations. A strike on the oil sector, Iran’s economic backbone, or on the nuclear program would almost certainly guarantee an Iranian response and raise the risk of further escalation.
Such strikes could rattle global oil markets and shake the US economy on the eve of a presidential election. They also could risk Iranian retaliation not only against Israel, but against American troops stationed in the region or Gulf Arab countries aligned with the West.
“Unlike Lebanon and Gaza, every Israeli attack on Iran has international and global repercussions,” said Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
So how will Israel respond?
Former leaders are divided on what path Israel should choose.
Olmert said a strike on multiple military targets, spread across Iran’s vast territory, would be more than enough to send a message. The goal, he said, is to show that Israel can strike anywhere and anytime.
“That’s precisely what deterrence is all about,” he said.
Olmert said hitting Iran’s oil sector would be an unnecessary escalation that invites a response, and that striking the nuclear program is not worth the risk. Not only would it trigger Iranian retaliation, but the odds of success are uncertain, he said.
“Trying to attack the nuclear program will be a mistake,” he said.
Another former prime minister, Yair Lapid, believes Israel should strike Iran’s oil industry infrastructure.
“That is the most painful target for the Iranian regime,” Lapid, who served as premier in 2022, said in a written response to a question from The Associated Press.
“Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel must be met with a forceful response,” he said, adding that Iran must understand “there is a high cost to its regional aggression.”
In an interview with the Israeli news site Ynet, Lapid said a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities should only be done as part of an international coalition in coordination with the United States.
Lapid’s predecessor as prime minister and former governing partner, Naftali Bennett, takes an even tougher line, saying now is the time for Israel to bomb the Iranian nuclear project.
Bennett said in a video posted on social media Tuesday that Iran and its allies have been weakened, and that Israel has a rare chance to deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s leadership, economy and nuclear program.
“We must not settle for Iranian military bases or noisy-yet-meaningless actions that are meant only to deliver a message,” Bennett said. “The time for messages is over.”
Olmert, however, said he hopes cooler heads will prevail.
“What do we want to achieve and how far do we want to go and how arrogant do we want to be?” he said. His advice: “Try to be smart.”

 


Hamas calls on ‘anyone who can bear arms’ worldwide to fight Trump’s Gaza plan

Hamas calls on ‘anyone who can bear arms’ worldwide to fight Trump’s Gaza plan
Updated 55 min 8 sec ago
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Hamas calls on ‘anyone who can bear arms’ worldwide to fight Trump’s Gaza plan

Hamas calls on ‘anyone who can bear arms’ worldwide to fight Trump’s Gaza plan
  • Netanyahu said Israel was working toward a plan proposed by Trump to displace Gazans to other countries

CAIRO: A senior Hamas official on Monday called on supporters worldwide to pick up weapons and fight US President Donald Trump’s plan to relocate more than two million Gazans to neighboring countries such as Egypt and Jordan.
“In the face of this sinister plan — one that combines massacres with starvation — anyone who can bear arms, anywhere in the world, must take action,” Sami Abu Zuhri said in a statement.
“Do not withhold an explosive, a bullet, a knife, or a stone. Let everyone break their silence.”
Abu Zuhri’s call comes a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered to let Hamas leaders leave Gaza but demanded that the Palestinian militant group disarm in the final stages of the war in Gaza.
Hamas has expressed a willingness to relinquish Gaza’s administration, but has warned its weapons are a “red line.”
Netanyahu said Israel was working toward a plan proposed by Trump to displace Gazans to other countries.
Netanyahu said that after the war, Israel would ensure overall security in Gaza and “enable the implementation of the Trump plan” — which had initially called for the mass displacement of all 2.4 million people living in the Palestinian territory — calling it a “voluntary migration plan.”
Days after taking office in January, Trump floated a proposal to move Gaza’s population out of the war-battered territory, suggesting that Egypt or Jordan could take them in.
Both countries, along with other Arab allies, governments around the world and the Palestinians themselves, have flatly rejected the notion.
Trump later appeared to backtrack on the proposal, saying he was “not forcing” his widely condemned plan.
“Nobody’s expelling any Palestinians,” Trump said at the White House in mid-March, remarks welcomed by Egypt, Jordan and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).


Arab nations have since come up with an alternative plan for rebuilding the Gaza Strip without relocating its people, which would take place under the future administration of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority.
For Palestinians, any attempts to force them out of Gaza would evoke dark memories of what the Arab world calls the “Nakba,” or catastrophe — the mass displacement of Palestinians during Israel’s creation in 1948.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz in February said that a special agency would be established for the “voluntary departure” of Gazans.
A defense ministry statement said an initial plan included “extensive assistance that will allow any Gaza resident who wishes to emigrate voluntarily to a third country to receive a comprehensive package, which includes, among other things, special departure arrangements via sea, air, and land.”
Israel resumed intense bombing of Gaza on March 18 and then launched a new ground offensive, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire in the war with Hamas.
Since the fighting restarted, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza says that at least 1,001 people have been killed.
The war was sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign has killed at least 50,357 people in Gaza, the majority of them civilians, according to the territory’s health ministry.


US airstrikes pound Yemen overnight, killing at least 3, Houthis say

US airstrikes pound Yemen overnight, killing at least 3, Houthis say
Updated 31 March 2025
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US airstrikes pound Yemen overnight, killing at least 3, Houthis say

US airstrikes pound Yemen overnight, killing at least 3, Houthis say
  • Strikes around Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, and Hajjah governorate also wounded 12

DUBAI: Suspected US airstrikes struck around Yemen’s Houthi-held capital overnight into Monday morning, attacks that the group said killed at least three people.
The full extent of the damage wasn’t immediately clear. The attacks followed a night of airstrikes early Friday that appeared particularly intense compared to other days in the campaign that began March 15.
The strikes around Sanaa, Yemen’s capital held by the Houthis since 2014, and Hajjah governorate also wounded 12 others, the rebels said.
Their Al-Masirah satellite news channel aired footage of broken glass littering homes in Sanaa after the concussive blast of the bombs, but continued not to show the targets of the attacks — suggesting the sites had a military or intelligence function. Strikes there killed one person, the Houthis said.
Another strike targeting a pickup truck in Hajjah killed two people and wounded a child, the Houthis said. It marked the first, publicly known time the American strikes targeted a vehicle in this campaign.
An Associated Press review has found the new American operation against the Houthis under President Donald Trump appears more extensive than those under former President Joe Biden, as the US moves from solely targeting launch sites to firing at ranking personnel as well as dropping bombs in cities.
The new campaign of airstrikes, which the Houthis now say have killed at least 61 people, started after the group threatened to begin targeting “Israeli” ships again over Israel blocking aid entering the Gaza Strip. The rebels in the past loosely defined what constitutes an Israeli ship, meaning other vessels could be targeted.
The Houthis had targeted over 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two vessels and killing four sailors from November 2023 until January of this year. They also launched attacks targeting American warships, though none has been hit so far.
The attacks greatly raised the Houthis’ profile as they faced economic problems and launched a crackdown targeting any dissent and aid workers at home amid Yemen’s decadelong stalemated war that has torn apart the Arab world’s poorest nation.


Syria president says new authorities can’t satisfy everyone

Syria president says new authorities can’t satisfy everyone
Updated 31 March 2025
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Syria president says new authorities can’t satisfy everyone

Syria president says new authorities can’t satisfy everyone
  • President Ahmed Al-Sharaa announced transitional 23-member cabinet on Saturday
  • Sharaa said the new government’s goal was rebuilding the country

DAMASCUS: Syria’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa said Monday a new transitional government would aim for consensus in rebuilding the war-torn country but acknowledged it would be unable to satisfy everyone.
The transitional 23-member cabinet — without a prime minister — was announced Saturday, more than three months after Sharaa’s Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) led an offensive that toppled longtime president Bashar Assad.
The autonomous Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria has rejected the government’s legitimacy, saying it “does not reflect the country’s diversity.”
Sharaa said the new government’s goal was rebuilding the country but warned that “will not be able to satisfy everyone.”
“Any steps we take will not reach consensus — this is normal — but we must reach a consensus” as much as possible, he told a gathering at the presidential palace broadcast on Syrian television after prayers for the Eid Al-Fitr Muslim holiday.
Authorities are seeking to reunite and rebuild the country and its institutions after nearly 14 years of civil war.
Some of Sharaa’s closest supporters and other figures aligned with him make up the majority of the new cabinet.
Sharaa said the ministers were chosen for their competence and expertise, “without particular ideological or political orientations.”
Most members are Sunni Muslim, reflecting the demographic make-up of Syria, ruled for decades by the Assad clan which belongs to the Alawite minority.
Amid international calls for an inclusive transition, the new government has four ministers from minority groups in Syria — a Christian, a Druze, a Kurd and an Alawite, none of whom were handed key portfolios.
Sharaa said the new government’s make-up took into consideration “the diversity of Syrian society” while rejecting a quota system for religious or ethnic minorities, instead opting for “participation.”
“A new history is being written for Syria... we are all writing it,” he told the gathering.
This month, Sharaa signed into force a constitutional declaration regulating the country’s transitional period, set for five years.
Some experts and rights groups have warned that it concentrates power in Sharaa’s hands and fails to include enough protections for minorities.
This month also saw the worst sectarian bloodshed since Assad’s overthrow, with civilian massacres in Alawite-majority areas.
Sharaa has previously vowed to prosecute those behind the “bloodshed of civilians” and set up a fact-finding committee.


Freed Israeli hostage Bibas calls on Trump to stop Gaza war

Freed Israeli hostage Bibas calls on Trump to stop Gaza war
Updated 31 March 2025
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Freed Israeli hostage Bibas calls on Trump to stop Gaza war

Freed Israeli hostage Bibas calls on Trump to stop Gaza war
  • Palestinian militants abducted Yarden Bibas, his wife Shiri nad their two young boys Ariel and Kfir
  • Bibas said Israel’s resumption of military operations this month would not help free the dozens of hostages still held in the Palestinian territory

JERUSALEM: Former Israeli hostage Yarden Bibas, whose wife and children were killed while held by Gaza militants, has urged US President Donald Trump to press Israel to end the war to rescue the remaining captives.
In a first interview since being released from the Gaza Strip in February, under a truce deal that has since collapsed, Bibas said Israel’s resumption of military operations this month would not help free the dozens of hostages still held in the Palestinian territory.
“Please stop this war, and help bring all the hostages back,” Bibas said, addressing Trump in an interview with CBS News “60 Minutes” aired late Sunday.
“I know he can help,” said Bibas.
“I’m here because of Trump, I’m here only because of him, I think he’s the only one who can stop this war again.”
Palestinian militants abducted Yarden Bibas, his wife Shiri nad their two young boys Ariel and Kfir, during the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 which triggered the war.
The family — and particularly four-year-old Ariel and Kfir, who was just eight months old when taken captive — became a symbol of the hostage tragedy in Israel.
Israeli authorities have accused Hamas of murdering Shiri, Ariel and Kfir Bibas “in cold blood.”
Hamas said in November 2023 that all three were killed in an Israeli air strike that hit the location where they were being held. Their bodies were returned in February, after the father’s release.
Yarden Bibas, asked if he thought the resumed fighting in Gaza could encourage Hamas to release hostages, replied: “No.”
Israel resumed intense bombing on March 18 and then launched a new ground offensive, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire in the war in what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued was proving effective in swaying Hamas negotiators.
Bibas told CBS News that while he was held in Gaza, Israeli bombardment was “scary, you don’t know when it’s going to happen, and when it happens, you’re afraid for your life.”
Of the 251 hostages seized during the 2023 attack, 58 are still held in Gaza including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
The truce since January saw the return of 33 Israeli hostages, including some who were deceased, in exchange for about 1,800 Palestinians in Israeli custody.


Israeli military orders evacuation of most of Gaza’s southern city of Rafah

Israeli military orders evacuation of most of Gaza’s southern city of Rafah
Updated 31 March 2025
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Israeli military orders evacuation of most of Gaza’s southern city of Rafah

Israeli military orders evacuation of most of Gaza’s southern city of Rafah
  • Israel ended ceasefire with Hamas and renewed its war earlier this month
  • The evacuation orders appear to cover nearly all of Rafah and nearby areas

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: The Israeli military on Monday issued sweeping evacuation orders covering most of Rafah, indicating it could soon launch another major ground operation in the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip.
Israel ended its ceasefire with the Hamas militant group and renewed its air and ground war earlier this month. At the beginning of March it cut off all supplies of food, fuel, medicine and humanitarian aid to the territory’s roughly 2 million Palestinians to pressure Hamas to accept changes to the truce agreement.
The evacuation orders appeared to cover nearly all of the city and nearby areas. The military ordered Palestinians to head to Muwasi, a sprawl of squalid tent camps along the coast. The orders came during Eid Al-Fitr, a normally festive Muslim holiday marking the end of the fasting month of Ramadan.
Israel launched a major operation in Rafah, on the border with Egypt, last May, leaving large parts of it in ruins. The military seized a strategic corridor along the border as well as the Rafah crossing with Egypt, Gaza’s only gateway to the outside world that was not controlled by Israel.
Israel was supposed to withdraw from the corridor under the ceasefire it signed with Hamas in January under US pressure, but it later refused to, citing the need to prevent weapons smuggling.
Israel has vowed to intensify its military operations until Hamas releases the remaining 59 hostages it holds — 24 of whom are believed to be alive. Israel has also demanded that Hamas disarm and leave the territory, conditions that were not included in the ceasefire agreement and which Hamas has rejected.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel would take charge of security in Gaza after the war and implement US President Donald Trump’s proposal to resettle Gaza’s population in other countries, describing it as “voluntary emigration.”
That plan has been universally rejected by Palestinians, who view it as forcible expulsion from their homeland, and human rights experts say it would likely violate international law.
Hamas, meanwhile, has insisted on implementing the signed agreement, which called for the remainder of the hostages to be released in exchange for a lasting ceasefire and an Israeli pullout. Negotiations over those parts of the agreement were supposed to have begun in February but only preliminary talks have been held.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, rampaging through army bases and farming communities and killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians. The militants took another 251 people hostage, most of whom have since been released in ceasefires or other deals.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not say how many were civilians or combatants. At its height, the war had displaced some 90 percent of Gaza’s population, with many fleeing multiple times.
Large areas of Gaza have been completely destroyed, and it’s unclear how or when anything will be rebuilt.