Aoun, Abbas agree Lebanon will not be used as launchpad for strikes against Israel

Special Aoun, Abbas agree Lebanon will not be used as launchpad for strikes against Israel
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun walks alongside Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas as they review an honor guard at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, May 21, 2025. (AFP)
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Updated 21 May 2025
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Aoun, Abbas agree Lebanon will not be used as launchpad for strikes against Israel

Aoun, Abbas agree Lebanon will not be used as launchpad for strikes against Israel
  • ‘Era of weapons outside the authority of the Lebanese state has ended,’ presidents say
  • Leaders also call for ‘just and lasting peace in the region’

BEIRUT: The Lebanese and Palestinian presidents have agreed that Palestinian factions will not use Lebanon as a launchpad for any attacks against Israel.

The two sides also agreed on Wednesday to remove weapons that are not under the authority of the Lebanese state.

The announcement came at the start of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ three-day visit to Lebanon.

Abbas and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun affirmed their “commitment to the principle of exclusive possession of weapons by the Lebanese state and to ending any manifestations that fall outside the framework of the Lebanese state.”

In a joint statement they highlighted “the importance of respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and their belief that the era of weapons outside the authority of the Lebanese state has ended — especially since the Lebanese and Palestinian peoples have for many decades borne heavy losses and made great sacrifices.”

They said also that the Palestinian side “affirmed its commitment not to use Lebanese territory as a launchpad for any military operations and to respect Lebanon’s declared policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries and avoiding regional conflicts.”

Both sides agreed the need to reach “a just and lasting peace in the region that would allow the Palestinian people to establish their independent state following relevant international legitimacy resolutions, while also ensuring that all countries and peoples in the region obtain their rightful and legitimate rights.”

The statement condemned the “ongoing Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and the resulting severe human losses and unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe” and called on the international community “to take immediate and serious action to stop it and to provide full protection for Palestinian civilians.”

Abbas arrived at Beirut airport at about 1 p.m. and immediately headed to the presidential headquarters. A presidential source said the talks focused on the issue of “Palestinian weapons in the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, the extension of full Lebanese state authority over these camps and the implementation framework for the plan.”

Aoun and Abbas underscored “the urgent need to strengthen the role of the UN and its institutions in safeguarding the Palestinian people, upholding international law and ensuring the enforcement of the resolutions of international legitimacy.”

They condemned the “repeated Israeli attacks on Lebanon” and called on “the international community, particularly the US and France, to pressure Israel to follow the agreement reached under their auspices in November 2024. The agreement stresses a cessation of hostilities, the withdrawal from Israeli-occupied hills and the release of Lebanese prisoners.”

Implementing such measures was “essential for allowing the Lebanese army to complete its deployment to the internationally recognized borders, following Resolution 1701, to which Lebanon remains fully committed,” they said.

The two sides highlighted the need to “enhance coordination between official Lebanese and Palestinian authorities to maintain stability within and around the Palestinian camps” and their commitment to “strengthening cooperation in the fight against terrorism and extremism and to ensuring that the camps do not serve as safe havens for extremist groups.”

On the issue of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, they stressed the importance of “continued support for UN agency UNRWA, the continuation of its services to refugees and increasing its financial resources to enable it to fulfill its obligations.”

They also agreed to form a joint Lebanese-Palestinian committee to monitor the situation in the Palestinian camps in Lebanon and work to improve the living conditions of refugees, “while respecting Lebanese sovereignty and adhering to Lebanese laws.”

During his visit, Abbas is scheduled to hold meetings with parliament speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and other senior officials and representatives of Palestinian factions from the refugee camps.

Also, the Hani Fahas Academy for Dialogue and Peace will honor Abbas with the 2025 Peacemakers Award at a ceremony on Thursday in Beirut, “in recognition of his efforts to promote Lebanese-Palestinian reconciliation.”

This is not the first time the issue of weapons in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon has been raised. The matter was included as a clause in the 2006 Doha Agreement and was discussed during the Lebanese National Dialogue in 2008, chaired by former President Michel Suleiman.

The discussion focused on the need to disarm Palestinian factions in refugee camps and in politically protected Palestinian communities.

The clause was not enforced however, leading to clashes in the Nahr Al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp between the Lebanese army and Palestinian factions supported by the former Syrian regime.

The issue was tackled again during Abbas’ visit to Lebanon in 2013. In a meeting with Suleiman he said Palestinians were “guests in Lebanon and are subject to the law.”

“The Palestinian presence in Lebanon is temporary and the Lebanese territory’s unity and sovereignty are a sacred matter for us. We count on the Lebanese government to protect the safety of Palestinian refugees and ensure their well-being,” he said.

Ain Al-Helweh — the biggest and most populated Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon — witnessed armed clashes in 2013 between the Jund Al-Sham and Fath Al-Islam factions, resulting in the death of 16 Lebanese soldiers.

Abbas also visited Lebanon in 2017 and held talks with former President Michel Aoun. The following year, bloody clashes erupted within Ain Al-Helweh between the Fatah Movement and armed extremists, resulting in rifts between Palestinian factions there.

Further clashes took place in 2023 between members of Fatah and individuals affiliated with extremist groups close to Hamas.

According to a 2017 census by the Central Administration of Statistics in Lebanon and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, 174,422 Palestinian refugees were living in camps and other pockets across Lebanon.

There were also Palestinian military centers affiliated with Palestinian factions loyal to the Syrian regime located outside the Palestinian camps, specifically in Bekaa, which were handed over to the Lebanese army following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime.

The Palestinian arms crisis reached its peak following the implementation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in November last year, when members of Hamas repeatedly launched rockets toward the Israeli side from southern Lebanon.

The Lebanese army pursued and apprehended several suspects but four evaded capture and went into hiding in Palestinian refugee camps in Tyre. Three were later surrendered by Hamas following pressure from the Lebanese government on its leadership, while the fourth, reportedly a religious figure, remains at large.

Haitham Zaiter, a member of the Palestinian National and Central Council, said in a statement that Abbas’ visit carried “a message of support for Lebanon.”

“During the meetings, it will be emphasized that Palestinians are guests on Lebanese territory, respect sovereignty and abide by Lebanese laws until their return to their homeland. This is a right that cannot be waived and does not expire with time,” he said.

“Discussions will also address issues related to the living, social and civil rights of refugees, as well as the right to work and own property in Lebanon, which require amending some laws. It will also be emphasized that Palestinians in Lebanese territory are subject to the law.”


Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar

Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar
Updated 24 June 2025
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Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar

Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar
  • Trump posted on Truth Social that the 24-hour phased-in ceasefire will begin about midnight Tuesday Eastern time. He said it would bring an “Official END” to the war
  • A senior White House official said Trump communicated directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure the ceasefire

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a US military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites. Iran said that as long as Israel stopped its attacks early Tuesday morning, it would halt theirs.
Israel did not immediately acknowledge any ceasefire, but there were no reports of Israeli strikes in Iran after 4 a.m. local. Heavy Israeli strikes continued in Tehran and other cities until shortly before that time.

“As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a post on X. “However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”
His message was posted at 4:16 a.m. Tehran time. Araghchi added: “The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.”
Trump posted on Truth Social that the 24-hour phased-in ceasefire will begin about midnight Tuesday Eastern time. He said it would bring an “Official END” to the war.

Iran targetted a US base in Qatar. (AFP)


The Israeli military declined to comment on Trump’s statement and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment.
Speaking on Iranian state television, an overnight anchor repeatedly referred to a “Trump-claimed” ceasefire, without saying whether Tehran accepted it. The anchor noted: “Simultaneously with Trump’s claim of a ceasefire, the Zionist enemy targeted several points in the cities of Tehran, Urmia and Rasht, including a residential area in the capital.”
Israel’s military put out a warning earlier that District 6 in Tehran could be struck.
Early Tuesday, Iran, mirroring the language and maps of the Israeli military, put out a warning telling people in Ramat Gan it would target “military infrastructure” there.

HIGHLIGHT

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that there was no ceasefire agreement with Israel as of now, but if it stopped its attacks then Tehran would also stop firing

Iran’s attack Monday indicated it was prepared to step back from escalating tensions in the volatile region. The US was warned by Iran in advance, and there were no casualties, said Trump, who dismissed the attack as a “very weak response.”
Qatar condemned the attack on Al Udeid Air Base as “a flagrant violation” of its sovereignty, airspace and international law. Qatar said it intercepted all but one missile, though it was not clear if that missile caused any damage.
Iran said the volley matched the number of bombs dropped by the United States on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Iran also said it targeted the base because it was outside of populated areas.
Those comments, made immediately after the attack, suggested Iran wanted to de-escalate with the United States, something Trump himself said after the strikes early Sunday on Iran.
Qatar Maj. Gen. Shayeq Al Hajjri said 19 missiles were fired at the base that is home to the Combined Air Operations Center, which provides command and control of air power across the region, as well as the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing, the largest such wing in the world. Trump said 14 missiles were fired, 13 were knocked down and one was “set free” because it posed no threat.


Iran announced the attack on state television, with a caption calling it “a mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression.”
Just before the explosions, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X: “We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer.”
Earlier reports that a missile was launched at a base housing American forces in Iraq were a false alarm, a senior US military official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said debris from a malfunctioning Iranian missile targeting Israel had triggered an alert of an impending attack on the Ain Assad base.
Israel expands war to include symbolic targets
On the 11th day of the conflict, Israel and Iran traded airstrikes that have become a reality for civilians in both countries since Israel started the war to target Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.
Iran struck Israel with a barrage of missiles and drones while Israel said it attacked “regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran.”
But Israeli officials insisted they did not seek the overthrow of Iran’s government, their archenemy since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The latest strikes unfolded only hours after Trump himself mentioned the possibility of regime change a day after inserting America into the war with its stealth-bomber strike on three Iranian nuclear sites.
“If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” he asked on his Truth Social website.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later described Trump as “simply raising a question.”

A US Marine watches as Iranian-US demonstrators gather to call for regime change in Iran, as US President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, in Los Angeles. (AFP)


The US strikes over the weekend prompted fears of a wider regional conflict. Iran said the US had crossed “a very big red line” with its risky gambit to strike with missiles and 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs.
Israel aims to wind down the war in the coming days, but that will depend on the Iranians, an Israeli official said on condition of anonymity to discuss high-level internal deliberations. The official spoke before Trump’s announcement about a ceasefire.
Israel’s preferred outcome is for Iran to agree to a ceasefire and reenter negotiations with the US over its nuclear program, the official said. But Israel is prepared for the possibility of an extended low-intensity war of attrition or period of “quiet for quiet,” in which it would closely monitor Iran’s activities and strike if it identifies new threats.
Tehran strikes open new chapter of war
Before the ceasefire announcement, the Israeli military warned Iranians it would continue to attack military sites around Tehran as its focus shifted to include symbolic targets. The military issued the warning on the social platform X, though Iranians are struggling to access the outside world due to an Internet shutdown.
In Tehran, Israel hit the headquarters of the military force that suppressed recent protests and blew open a gate at Evin prison. That facility is known for holding political activists. Iranian state television shared black-and-white surveillance footage of the strike at the facility known for holding dual nationals and Westerners often used by Iran as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West.
Evin also has specialized units for political prisoners run by the paramilitary, all-volunteer Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The facility is the target of both US and European Union sanctions.
There were no immediate reports of casualties in Iran or significant damage.

The price of oil tumbled. (AP)


Iranian state television aired footage it said was shot inside Evin, with prisoners under control. However, the Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran said many families of detainees “have expressed deep concern about the safety and condition of their loved ones” in the prison.
According to an Israeli official familiar with the government’s strategy, Israel is targeting these sites to put pressure on the Iranian administration but is not actively seeking to topple it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations.
The Israeli military also confirmed it struck roads around Iran’s Fordo enrichment facility to obstruct access to the site. The underground site was one of those hit in Sunday’s attack by the United States. The Israeli military did not elaborate.
In Vienna, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said he expected there to be heavy damage at the Fordo facility following Sunday’s US airstrike there with sophisticated bunker-buster bombs.
Several Iranian officials, including Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi, have claimed Iran removed nuclear material from targeted sites ahead of time.
Iran presses on attacking Israel
Iran said its Monday attacks targeted the Israeli cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv, according to Iranian state television.

Global airlines had been suspended or reduced flights in the Middle East as the conflict between Israel and Iran raged. (AFP)


Explosions were also heard in Jerusalem, possibly from air defense systems in action, and Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency rescue service said there had been no reports of injuries.
In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the war. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 974 people and wounded 3,458 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists.
The group, which has provided detailed casualty figures from Iranian unrest such as the protests surrounding the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, said of those killed, it identified 387 civilians and 268 security force personnel.
The US has evacuated some 250 American citizens and their immediate family members from Israel by government, military and charter flights that began over the weekend, a State Department official said.
There are roughly 700,000 American citizens, most of them dual US-Israeli citizens, believed to be in Israel.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who leads one of Iran’s closest allies, said Monday after meeting in Moscow with the Iranian foreign minister that they had explored “how we can get out of today’s situation.”
Putin called the Israeli and American attacks on Iran an “absolutely unprovoked aggression.”

 

 


NGOs urge closing of Gaza aid group, warn of possible ‘war crimes’ liability

An Israeli aircraft fires a flare, in Gaza City, June 22, 2025. (REUTERS)
An Israeli aircraft fires a flare, in Gaza City, June 22, 2025. (REUTERS)
Updated 24 June 2025
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NGOs urge closing of Gaza aid group, warn of possible ‘war crimes’ liability

An Israeli aircraft fires a flare, in Gaza City, June 22, 2025. (REUTERS)
  • The signatories include the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, the American Center for Constitutional Rights, and the International Commission of Jurists

UNITED NATIONS, United States: More than a dozen human rights organizations called Monday on the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), whose aid distribution has seen chaotic and deadly scenes, to cease its operations, warning of possible complicity in war crimes.
“This new model of privatized, militarized aid distribution constitutes a radical and dangerous shift away from established international humanitarian relief operations,” the 15 organizations said in an open letter.
It called the US-backed group’s operations “dehumanizing, repeatedly deadly and (contributing) to the forced displacement of the very population it purports to help.”
The groups urged GHF and all the organizations and individuals who have been supporting its work, to “to cease their operations.”
“Failure to do so may expose these organizations... to further risk of criminal and civil liability for aiding and abetting or otherwise being complicit in crimes under international law, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, or genocide in violation of international law,” the letter warned.
The signatories include the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, the American Center for Constitutional Rights, and the International Commission of Jurists.
An officially private effort with opaque funding, GHF began operations on May 26 after Israel completely cut off supplies into Gaza for more than two months, sparking warnings of mass famine.
The United Nations and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the foundation over concerns it was designed to cater to Israeli military objectives.
According to figures issued by the health ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, at least 450 people have been killed and nearly 3,500 injured since GHF began distributing meal boxes in late May.
GHF has denied responsibility for deaths near its aid points, contradicting statements from witnesses and Gaza rescue services.

 


Demand by UN for access to Iran’s uranium

Demand by UN for access to Iran’s uranium
Updated 24 June 2025
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Demand by UN for access to Iran’s uranium

Demand by UN for access to Iran’s uranium
  • ‘We must ... go back to Iran’s nuclear sites and account for the stockpiles of uranium, including, most importantly, the 400 kg enriched to 60 percent,’ IAEA chief says

VIENNA: The UN nuclear watchdog on Monday demanded access to highly enriched uranium that Iran is thought to have moved before US attacks last weekend on its nuclear development sites.

“Iran, Israel and the Middle East need peace,” said Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. “We must ... go back to Iran’s nuclear sites and account for the stockpiles of uranium, including, most importantly, the 400 kg enriched to 60 percent.”

US strikes on the underground Fordow nuclear site had probably caused “significant damage,” Grossi said, but it was impossible to assess without a visit.

Meanwhile Israel launched new strikes on Monday on the notorious Evin prison and Revolutionary Guard command centers in Tehran. Video footage showed rescue workers combing the flattened wreckage of a building at the prison, and carrying an injured man on a stretcher.

Israel said its strikes on Tehran were intended to hit the Iranian ruling apparatus broadly, and its ability to sustain power. Evin has long been Iran’s primary jail for political and security detainees. Several high-profile foreign prisoners are also held there.
 


Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat

Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat
Updated 24 June 2025
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Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat

Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat
  • South Korea ow restricts only chicken meat from the region affected by the bird flu, the ministry said, without providing more details

SAO PAULO: Iraq removed a trade ban it had imposed on Brazilian chicken meat after a bird flu case on a commercial farm last month, while South Korea eased its restrictions, the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry said on Monday.
South Korea ow restricts only chicken meat from the region affected by the bird flu, the ministry said, without providing more details. Both Iraq and South Korea had imposed nationwide trade bans to Brazilian chicken meat.
Brazil hopes to reverse trade bans after declaring last week itself free of the bird flu virus in commercial flocks following a 28-day period without any new commercial farm outbreaks.

 


What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy

What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy
Updated 24 June 2025
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What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy

What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy
  • Efforts in Geneva to restart diplomacy now hang in the balance, with Iran and the US hardening positions after recent strikes
  • Analysts warn that without regional diplomacy led by powers like Saudi Arabia, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiralling into a wider war

LONON/DUBAI: The Iranian missile attack which was intercepted by Qatar on Monday night when it launched missiles against US troops stationed at Al-Udeid Air Base comes as a major setback for peace in the region.

As Iranian missiles lit up the sky over Doha in a retaliatory strike targeting the US military, a diplomatic solution to the Israel-Iran conflict, which has now drawn in the US, seemed further away than ever, with Tehran appearing to wash its hands of further nuclear talks.

Although no casualties were reported at Al-Udeid Air Base — the largest US base in the region — Iran’s counterattack is likely to invite additional American strikes and further regional escalation.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both condemned the attack on Qatari sovereignty. The Saudi foreign ministry lambasted Iran for its “unjustifiable” attack, offering to deploy “all its capabilities” to support Doha.

Since the Israeli-Iran conflict dramatically escalated over the weekend, the mixed global response to Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities is testing the limits of modern diplomacy and exposing deep divisions among major powers.

This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)

What most seem to agree on is that while diplomacy is on the decline, it could have been the solution.

Experts say the fractured international reaction to the escalation reflects a shifting global order and the erosion of the post-Cold War consensus.

“There is no ‘global response’ to speak of at this moment,” Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News. “This Israel-Iran war is taking place in a fractured geopolitical context.”

He argues that divisions among the US, China and Russia “make it next to impossible to marshal a collective diplomatic effort in the way that the world did in previous eras, like the immediate post-Cold War period of the 1990s.

“That’s why we will continue to see a lot of empty words disconnected from the actions that are actually reshaping the Middle East as we know it.”

On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites including Natanz, Isfahan and Tehran, reportedly killing senior officials, nuclear scientists and civilians. In response, Iran launched “Operation True Promise III,” firing missiles and drones into Israel. Several struck Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities, causing civilian casualties.

Despite initially assuring G7 allies that the US would stay out of the conflict, President Donald Trump reversed course on June 22, ordering B-2 bombers to strike Iran’s underground nuclear facilities with MOP “bunker-buster” bombs — weapons only the US possesses.

Although Trump declared that the strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, it remains unclear whether Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was destroyed or relocated in time. If material and technical capacity remain, diplomacy may be the only path to prevent Iran from eventually building a nuclear weapon — a goal the regime could now prioritize more urgently.

Even with severe military losses and the effective loss of airspace control, Iran appears undeterred. Hostilities with Israel continue, and the possibility of Iranian retaliation against US targets is growing. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that the war will not end until Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is removed from power.

Israeli rescuers search through the rubble at the site of an overnight Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam on June 15, 2025. (AFP)

The US entry into the conflict has triggered a range of diplomatic responses — from enthusiastic support to fierce condemnation. Netanyahu praised Trump’s decision as a “courageous choice” that would “alter history.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, called it an “outrageous, grave and unprecedented violation” of international law, insisting Tehran reserves “all options” to defend its interests.

Iran’s ambassador to the UN demanded an emergency Security Council session and called the strikes “premeditated acts of aggression.”

Russia, a close ally of Iran, “strongly condemned” the US action. Its Foreign Ministry labeled the strikes a “gross violation of international law,” while Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, dismissed their impact and provocatively suggested some states might now help Iran obtain nuclear weapons.

China echoed the condemnation. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the strikes “seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter,” and warned of regional destabilization.

FASTFACTS

  • China and Russia have condemned US strikes on Iran while the UN and Europe have appealed for deescalation.
  • Analysts say without regional diplomacy led by powers like Saudi Arabia, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiraling into wider war.

Chinese Ambassador to the UN Fu Cong called on Israel to halt hostilities immediately and backed a UN resolution demanding an unconditional ceasefire. Chinese analysts have also warned that the conflict threatens global trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Other voices have called for diplomacy. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a “hazardous escalation,” stressing that “military solutions are not viable” and urging a return to negotiations.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — positioning himself as a bridge between the US and Europe — highlighted the danger of the war spreading beyond the region. While stopping short of endorsing the US strikes, he reiterated that Iran must not develop nuclear weapons and called for negotiations to stabilize the region.

European powers had previously been pressing for a deal requiring Iran to halt uranium enrichment, curb its missile program and stop supporting proxy groups. But Iran has rejected a full halt, claiming its enrichment is for peaceful purposes.

With Western diplomacy faltering, regional actors are stepping in. Most Arab states — including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf states — have condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran and are working to deescalate tensions.

Still, these efforts have so far achieved little. Strikes continue, ceasefire mechanisms remain absent and attempts to coordinate sanctions or arms embargoes have stalled.

A narrow diplomatic window may remain. Recent Geneva meetings involving Iranian, US, and European officials showed conditional openness to talks. But the latest US strikes have likely hardened positions.

A plume of heavy smoke and fire rise over an oil refinery in southern Tehran, after it was hit in an overnight Israeli strike, on June 15, 2025. (AFP)

Analysts say the only viable path forward begins with renewed diplomacy, ideally starting with a ceasefire. Yet fundamental disagreements over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and widespread distrust leave a comprehensive solution elusive.

Some fear that Israel, emboldened by US support, may escalate its military campaign to seek regime change in Tehran — a move that would risk greater instability across the Middle East, as the world has seen in the recent attack over Qatar. 

Others argue that Iran’s military retaliation is a necessary step before negotiations can resume. However, nobody seems to safely conclude just how far this retaliation will go. 

Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN that without such a response, Iran would lack both international leverage and domestic legitimacy to reenter talks.

Still, he later added: “Diplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future.”

With Iran and Israel entrenched and global powers divided, prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear slim. Yet Katulis believes regional “swing states” — such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE — could help shift the dynamic.

“One of the biggest brakes on further escalation lies right in the heart of the Middle East itself,” he said. “The key ‘swing states’ like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could lead more regional collective efforts to avoid further escalation by working publicly and quietly with the main combatants to find pathways toward a diplomatic settlement.”

In geopolitical terms, these “swing states” balance relationships with Washington, Moscow and Beijing — and can influence outcomes through neutrality or engagement. Katulis believes Riyadh, in particular, could help change the calculus.

Right now, he said, Israel and Iran “have more incentives to engage in military action than they do to pursue diplomacy.” But “the key powers in the region like Saudi Arabia could do even more than they are already doing to change the calculus for Israel and Iran.”

Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s actions as violations of international law and warned that continued escalation threatens long-term regional stability. The Kingdom has urged the UN Security Council to take meaningful steps to prevent further deterioration and has refused to allow its airspace to be used in military operations — a clear signal of its neutrality and strategic caution.

Israeli first responders gather in front of a building destroyed by an Iranian strike in Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025. (AFP)

Looking ahead, the stakes remain dangerously high. Maksad has warned that unchecked escalation could have serious consequences.

“The last step in that escalatory ladder is to go after American bases, whether it is in the GCC, or perhaps even attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20 percent of global energy passes through,” he told CNN.

As the war drags on, the fragmented international response highlights the fragility of global diplomacy and the difficulty of conflict resolution in an increasingly multipolar world.

For Tehran, halting enrichment altogether would not only undermine decades of strategic investment but also damage regime legitimacy. As Maksad put it, Tehran’s “entire prestige rests on enrichment.”

Still, he sees a potential way forward: Focusing not on enrichment itself, but on preventing a weapon. “That,” he said, “opens up the possibility of a negotiated outcome.”