Why chemical weapons remain post-Assad Syria’s unfinished nightmare

A member of opposition forces receives medical treatment after Assad regime's alleged chemical gas attack over oppositions' frontline, where is included in deconfliction zone in East Ghouta of Damascus, Syria on July 20, 2017. (Getty Images)
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Updated 16 December 2024
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Why chemical weapons remain post-Assad Syria’s unfinished nightmare

  • President Obama’s 2012 retreat on Damascus’s chemical weapons pledge left a deadly legacy still unresolved
  • Bashar Assad’s downfall renews fears over hidden arsenal as OPCW calls for safe access to inspect sites

LONDON: In August 2012, exactly two months after the UN had officially declared Syria to be in a state of civil war, US President Barack Obama made a pledge that he would ultimately fail to keep, and which would overshadow the rest of his presidency.

Since the beginning of protests against the government of Bashar Assad, Syria’s armed forces had been implicated in a series of attacks using banned chemical weapons.

During a press briefing in the White House on Aug. 12, Obama was asked if he was considering deploying US military assets to Syria, to ensure “the safe keeping of the chemical weapons, and if you’re confident that the chemical weapons are safe?”




A Syrian couple mourning in front of bodies wrapped in shrouds ahead of funerals following what Syrian rebels claim to be a toxic gas attack by pro-government forces in eastern Ghouta, on the outskirts of Damascus on August 21, 2013. (AFP)

Obama replied that he had “not ordered military engagement in the situation.  But … we cannot have a situation where chemical or biological weapons are falling into the hands of the wrong people.”

The US, he said, was “monitoring that situation very carefully. We have put together a range of contingency plans. We have communicated in no uncertain terms with every player in the region that that’s a red line for us and that there would be enormous consequences if we start seeing movement on the chemical weapons front or the use of chemical weapons.”

In the event, Obama stepped back from the action he had threatened — with devastating consequences for hundreds of Syrians.

INNUMBERS

360+

Tonnes of mustard gas missing from Syria despite admission of its existence in 2016.

5

Tonnes of precursor chemicals used to make the nerve agent sarin also unaccounted for.

Despite Syrian promises and, as part of a deal brokered by its ally Russia, commitments it made in 2012 by joining the Chemical Weapons Convention in a successful bid to stave off US military intervention, experts from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) believe that stocks of chemical weaponry still exist in the country.




Medics and other masked people attend to a man at a hospital in Khan al-Assal in the northern Aleppo province, as  Syria's government accused rebel forces of using chemical weapons for the first time. (AFP)

With the fall of Damascus and the toppling of the Assad regime, the whereabouts of those weapons is a matter of great concern.

The nightmare scenario feared by the OPCW is that the weapons will fall into the hands of a malign actor. Among the missing chemicals, the existence of which was admitted by the Syrian authorities in 2016, is more than 360 tons of mustard gas, an agent used to such devastating effect during the First World War that it was among the chemicals banned by the Geneva Protocol in 1925.

Also unaccounted for, according to a confidential investigation leaked to The Washington Post, are five tons of precursor chemicals used to make the nerve agent sarin. When pressed by investigators to explain where it had gone, the Syrians told OPCW investigators it had been “lost during transportation, due to traffic accidents.”




United Nations (UN) arms experts collecting samples as they inspect the site where rockets had fallen in Damascus' eastern Ghouta suburb during an investigation into a suspected chemical weapons strike near the capital. (AFP)

On Thursday, the OPCW said it was ready to send investigation teams to Syria as soon as safe access to the country could be negotiated.

Reassurance has been offered by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, the armed group that toppled the Assad regime and has now set up an interim government, that it has “no intention to use Assad’s chemical weapons or WMD (weapons of mass destruction), under any circumstances, against anyone.”

In a statement issued on Dec. 7, it added: “We consider the use of such weapons a crime against humanity, and we will not allow any weapon whatsoever to be used against civilians or transformed into a tool for revenge or destruction.”

There would be enormous consequences if we start seeing movement on the use of chemical weapons.

Barack Obama, Former US president in 2012

The fact that chemical weapons might still exist in Syria at all is testimony to the failure of international efforts to rid the country of them back in 2012.

“Whether Obama had meant to say that these were real red lines, or they’re sort of pinkish lines, everybody in the region thought they were red lines,” Sir John Jenkins, former British ambassador to Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, who was in Saudi Arabia at the time, told Arab News.

“That whole episode was pretty squalid. The fact was, Obama didn’t want to get into any sort of conflict, even restricted action, involving Syria — and a lot of that was the legacy of Iraq — and the Russians gave him an excuse.”




Barack Obama, Former US president in 2012

In August 2013, almost one year after Obama’s “red line” pledge, as the civil war raged and the civilian death toll mounted into the tens of thousands, shocking photographs emerged of child victims of chemical attacks carried out against areas held by militant groups in the eastern suburbs of Damascus.

By chance, a UN inspection team was already in the country, having arrived on Aug. 18 to investigate reports of several earlier chemical weapons attacks, in Khan Al-Asal and Sheik Maqsood, Aleppo, and Saraqib, a town 50 km to the southwest.

Instead, the inspectors headed to Ghouta. After interviewing survivors and medical personnel, and taking environmental, chemical and medical samples, they concluded there was no doubt that “chemical weapons have been used … against civilians, including children on a relatively large scale.”




A picture downloaded from Brown-Moses' blog, a Leicester-based blogger monitoring weapons used in Syria, on August 30, 2013, shows the size of the back of a rocket used in the alleged chemical attack on Damascus' eastern Ghouta suburb. (AFP)

Sarin, a highly toxic nerve agent, had been delivered by artillery rockets.

On Aug. 30, 2013, the White House issued a statement concluding with “high confidence” that the Syrian government had carried out the attacks, which had killed at least 1,429 people, including 426 children.

Obama’s “red line” had clearly been crossed. But the promised “enormous consequences” failed to materialize.

In a televised address on Sept. 10, 2013, Obama said he had determined that it was in the national security interests of the US to respond to the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons through a targeted military strike, “to deter Assad from using chemical weapons … and to make clear to the world that we will not tolerate their use.”

But in the same speech, the president made clear that he had hit the pause button.

Because of “constructive talks that I had with President Putin,” the Russian government — Assad’s biggest ally — “has indicated a willingness to join with the international community in pushing Assad to give up his chemical weapons.”




People are brought into a hospital in the Khan al-Assal region in the northern Aleppo province, as Syria's government accused rebel forces of using chemical weapons for the first time. (AFP)

The Syrian government had “now admitted that it has these weapons, and even said they’d join the Chemical Weapons Convention, which prohibits their use.”

As part of the unusual collaboration between the US and Russia, later enshrined in UN Resolution 2118, the threatened US airstrikes were called off and on Oct. 14, 2013 — less than two months after the massacre in Ghouta — Syria became the 190th state to become a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention, administered by the OPCW.

Syria’s accession to the convention was supposed to lead to the total destruction of its chemical weapons stockpiles.

The fact was, President Obama didn’t want to get into any sort of conflict, even restricted action, involving Syria.

Sir John Jenkins, former British ambassador to Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq

At first, everything seemed to be going to plan. On Jan. 7, 2014, the OPCW announced that the first consignment of “priority chemicals” had been removed from Syria. The chemicals were transported from two sites and loaded onto a Danish vessel, which left the port of Latakia.

Transporting these materials, said then-director-general of the OPCW Ahmet Uzumcu, was “an important step … as part of the plan to complete their disposal outside the territory of Syria.”

He added: “I encourage the Syrian government to maintain the momentum to remove the remaining priority chemicals, in a safe and timely manner, so that they can be destroyed outside of Syria as quickly as possible.”

In fact, as a joint statement by the US and 50 other countries a decade later would declare, “10 years later, Syria, in defiance of its international obligations, has still not provided full information on the status of its chemical weapons stockpiles.”

Not only that, added the statement on Oct. 12, 2023, investigations by the UN and the OPCW had established that Syria had been responsible “for at least nine chemical weapons attacks since its accession to the CWC in 2013,” demonstrating that “its stockpiles have not been completely destroyed and remain a threat to regional and international security.”

Over a year on, little has changed. In a speech to the EU Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Consortium in Brussels on Nov. 12, the director-general of the OPCW admitted the organization’s work in Syria was still not complete.

“For more than 10 years now,” said Fernando Arias, the organization’s Declaration Assessment Team “has strived to clarify the shortcomings in Syria’s initial declaration.”

Of 26 issues identified, “only seven have been resolved, while 19 remain outstanding, some of which are of serious concern,” and two of which “relate to the possible full-scale development and production of chemical weapons.”

This may have occurred at two declared chemical weapons-related sites where, according to Syria, no activity was supposed to have taken place but where OPCW inspectors had detected “relevant elements.” Questions put to Syria had “so far not been answered appropriately.”

Under the Convention, Syria is obliged to submit “accurate and complete declarations” of its chemical weapons program. The OPCW’s mandate, said Arias, “is to verify that this has indeed happened, and so far, we have not been able to do so.”

Meanwhile, the organization’s fact-finding mission “is gathering information and analysing data regarding five groups of allegations covering over 15 incidents,” while investigators have issued four reports to date linking the Syrian Armed Forces to the use of chemical weapons in five instances and the terrorist group Daesh in one.

This, said Arias, “highlights the ever-present risk posed by non-state actors … acquiring toxic chemicals for malicious purposes.”

“Everyone knew there were still secret sites, undeclared sites,” Wa’el Alzayat, a former Middle East policy expert at the US Department of State, told Arab News.

“Even the US intelligence community had assessments that there were still other facilities and stockpiles, but the more time passed, and with the change of administration, the issue not only got relegated but new political calculations came into place, particularly, I would say, during the Biden years, and also because of pressure from some neighboring countries that wanted to normalize with Assad and bring him back in from the cold.”

Twelve years on from Obama’s failure to act over Syria’s crossing of his infamous “red line,” it seems that an American intervention is once again unlikely in Syria.

Right before the fall of the regime, US intelligence agencies, concerned that Syrian government forces might resort to the use of chemical weapons to stall the advance of militant groups, let it be known that they were monitoring known potential storage sites in the country.

Just before the sudden collapse of the Assad regime, both the Biden and the incoming Trump administrations signalled a lack of willingness to become embroiled in the conflict.

President-elect Trump, employing his trademark capital letters for emphasis, posted on social media that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH” the “mess” that is Syria. “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT,” he added. ‘LET IT PLAY OUT.”

It remains to be seen whether the sudden collapse of the Assad regime has altered this calculation. What is certain, however, is that chemical weaponry remains at large in Syria and HTS is now under international pressure to allow OPCW inspectors into the country, for the sake of the entire region.

 

 


Summer comes early for Iraq with 49 degrees Celsius in Basra

Updated 4 sec ago
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Summer comes early for Iraq with 49 degrees Celsius in Basra

BAGHDAD: Summer has come early for Iraq this year with temperatures hitting 49 degrees Celsius (topping 120 degrees Fahrenheit) in the southern city of Basra on Thursday, the national weather center said.
“It is the highest temperature recorded in Iraq this year,” weather center spokesperson Amer Al-Jabiri told AFP.
He said the early heat was in contrast to last year, when the temperature was “relatively good” in May and “it only began to rise in June.”
In Iraq, summer temperatures often exceed 50 degrees Celsius, especially in July and August, and sometimes reach these levels earlier.
On Sunday, two cadets died and others were admitted to hospital with heat stroke at a military academy in the southern province of Dhi Qar, authorities said.
The defense ministry said nine cadets “showed signs of fatigue and exhaustion due to sun exposure” while waiting to be assigned to battalions.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani ordered an investigation into the deaths of the two cadets.
Iraq is one of the five countries most impacted by some effects of climate change, according to the United Nations. It has also seen a prolonged drought and frequent dust storms.

Israel army issues evacuation warning for 14 areas of north Gaza

Updated 42 min 54 sec ago
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Israel army issues evacuation warning for 14 areas of north Gaza

  • The army told residents that it was operating with intense force

JERUSALEM: The Israeli army issued an evacuation warning on Thursday for 14 neighborhoods in the northern Gaza Strip, including parts of Beit Lahia and Jabalia.

The army told residents in an Arabic-language statement that it was “operating with intense force in your areas, as terrorist organizations continue their activities and operations” there.

A similar warning for parts of northern Gaza was issued on Wednesday evening in what the army said was a response to rocket fire.

It said that one “projectile that was identified crossing into Israel from the northern Gaza Strip was intercepted” by the air force.

It later announced three more launches from northern Gaza, but said the projectiles had fallen inside the Palestinian territory.

Israel has ramped up its Gaza operations in recent days in what it says is a renewed push to destroy Hamas.

The territory’s civil defense agency said Israeli attacks had killed at least 19 people on Thursday.


Turkiye’s Erdogan says Damascus must keep focused on Kurdish SDF deal

Updated 59 min 39 sec ago
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Turkiye’s Erdogan says Damascus must keep focused on Kurdish SDF deal

  • Ankara views the SDF and its factions as a terrorist group

ANKARA: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Syria’s government must keep focused on its deal with the Kurdish, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) under which it is to integrate into the Syrian armed forces, pressing Damascus for its implementation.

Speaking to reporters on a flight from Budapest, he said Turkiye, Syria, Iraq and the United States had a committee to discuss the fate of Daesh militants in prison camps in northeast Syria, which have been run by the SDF for years.

Ankara views the SDF and its factions as a terrorist group.

“We are especially following the YPG issue very, very closely. It is important for the Damascus administration not to take its attention away from this issue,” his office on Thursday cited him as saying. The YPG militia spearheads the SDF.

He added that Iraq should focus on the issue of the camps, as most women and children at the Al-Hol camp there were from Iraq and Syria, and that Iraq should repatriate its nationals.


Israel intercepts two missiles launched from Yemen, military says

Updated 22 May 2025
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Israel intercepts two missiles launched from Yemen, military says

  • Houthi Military Spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group launched a ballistic missile toward Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport and two drones toward the Tel Aviv area

Israel’s military said it intercepted two missiles launched from Yemen and that sirens had sounded twice across the country including in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank on Thursday, as the Houthis stepped up attacks.
Houthi Military Spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group launched a ballistic missile toward Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport and two drones toward the Tel Aviv area.
Undeterred by Israeli strikes on Yemen, the Houthis said they would continue to fire at Israel even though they have agreed to a ceasefire with the United States to halt attacks on US ships in the Red Sea.
Israel has carried out retaliatory strikes including one on May 6 that damaged Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa, and another last week targeting the Red Sea ports of Hodeidah and Salif.
Since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in October 2023, the Houthis have launched dozens of missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, most of which have been intercepted or have fallen short.
The group says it is acting in support of Gaza’s Palestinians. 


ICC prosecutor says Netanyahu arrest warrant should remain as Israel jurisdiction challenge is heard

Updated 22 May 2025
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ICC prosecutor says Netanyahu arrest warrant should remain as Israel jurisdiction challenge is heard

  • Prosecutors argue there is ‘no basis to withdraw or vacate’ the pending warrants for Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant
  • Israel is not a member of the court and contends the ICC has no authority to prosecute Israeli nationals

THE HAGUE, Netherlands: International Criminal Court prosecutors have urged judges to reject a request by Israel to scrap arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister while the court reconsiders its jurisdiction over Gaza and the West Bank.
In a 10-page written submission posted on the ICC website late Wednesday, prosecutors argue there is “no basis to withdraw or vacate” the pending warrants for Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.
The warrants were issued in November, when judges found there was “reason to believe” Netanyahu and Gallant used “starvation as a method of warfare” by restricting humanitarian aid and intentionally targeted civilians in Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza. Israeli officials strongly deny the accusations.
The prosecution document was signed on behalf of prosecutor Karim Khan, who temporarily stepped down on Friday pending the outcome of an investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct.
The filing argues it is important for the underlying investigation to continue in the “current situation where crimes are ongoing and escalating.”
Last month, appeals judges ordered a pretrial panel to reconsider an Israeli challenge to the court’s jurisdiction.
Israel argued in its application for the warrants to be withdrawn that the court “doesn’t have, and never had” jurisdiction to issue warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant.
Israel is not a member of the court and contends the ICC has no authority to prosecute Israeli nations. The Hague-based institution, however, has accepted “The State of Palestine” as one of its 126 member nations.
ICC chief prosecutor Khan is currently on leave until the conclusion of an external probe into accusations that he tried for more than a year to coerce a female aide into a sexual relationship and groped her against her will.
An investigation by The Associated Press last year found that two court employees, in whom the alleged victim confided, reported the alleged misconduct in May 2024 to the court’s independent watchdog.
Along with the warrants for the Israeli officials, the court also issued a warrant for Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ armed wing, over the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks that triggered Israel’s offensive in Gaza. The warrant was withdrawn in February, after his death in an Israeli airstrike was confirmed.