Could focus on climate ease water woes between India and Pakistan?

A delegattion led by Indian Indus Water Commissioner Pradeep Kumar Saxena (2L) cross the India-Pakistan Wagah Border post, some 35 km from Amritsar on March 4, 2022, after talks in Pakistan with their Pakistani counterparts led by Syed Muhammad Mehr Ali Shah. (Photo courtesy: AFP/FILE)
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Updated 23 February 2023
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Could focus on climate ease water woes between India and Pakistan?

  • The two countries have utilized water resources under a 1960 agreement which has withstood standoffs and skirmishes
  • India says it wants to renegotiate the treaty amid changing climate, though Pakistan is reluctant due to mistrust of Delhi

SRINAGAR: As climate change impacts strengthen and water security becomes a growing concern in both India and Pakistan, India has proposed renegotiating a six-decade-old water sharing treaty – a move Pakistan so far opposes.

But renegotiation – or at least tweaking the treaty – may be as important for Pakistan as India, environmental experts say, as a dam-building push in both countries, rising water demand from growing populations and faster swings between drought and floods make water rights and access an ever-bigger worry.

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty – mediated by the World Bank – splits the Indus River and its tributaries between the South Asian neighbors and regulates the sharing of water.

The treaty has withstood standoffs, skirmishes and even wars, but diplomatic relations between the two foes have been reduced since 2019 due to tensions over disputed Kashmir, and a feud over water sharing and supplies is now intensifying.

While each country has dozens of hydropower projects in the Indus Basin currently operational or under construction, the ongoing water dispute centers around Pakistan’s opposition to India’s 330 megawatt (MW) Kishanganga project on the Jhelum river and the 850 MW Ratle project on the Chenab river.

Pakistan is seeking resolution at the Court of Arbitration in The Hague over its concerns with the two projects, while India has asked its neighbor to enter into bilateral negotiations to modify the Indus Waters Treaty, to stop third parties intervening in disputes.

Under the current terms of the treaty, the two countries can resolve disputes either through a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank, or at the Court of Arbitration.

Pakistan has taken the latter route because it is concerned that some of India’s planned and commissioned hydropower dams will reduce flows that feed at least 80 percent of its irrigated agriculture.

India, however, says that the way it is designing and constructing the hydroelectric plants is permitted under the terms of the treaty.

Analysts on both sides of the border say Pakistan is unlikely to reopen the agreement with India bilaterally because, as the smaller nation, it believes the involvement of international institutions strengths its position.

Yet some academics think the agreement should be reviewed to factor in climate change impacts for the first time.

For example, Daanish Mustafa, a professor of critical geography at King’s College London, said that doing so could ultimately benefit Pakistan, as India would be expected to take warming impacts into consideration when designing hydropower projects and making decisions about water.

A 2019 study in the journal Nature by Pakistani and Italian researchers noted that climate change was “quickly eroding trust” between the two nations and that the treaty “lacks guidelines ... (on) issues related to climate change and basin sustainability.”

However, Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, an environmental and development analyst based in Islamabad, said increasingly worrying climate change pressures are currently “the best instrument available for ensuring water cooperation and regional stability.”

Rather than “playing as victims of climate change,” the two nations should work together to create policies that work for both, he said, adding that the treaty should be updated to cover climate-related concerns from melting glaciers to more intense rainfall.

While communities in the Indus Basin are already dealing with the rising heat, longer droughts and erratic rainfall that are increasingly common across South Asia, the likelihood of reduced river flows related to climate change will have “significant impacts on various sectors of the economy,” said glacier expert Shakil Romshoo.

“Further depletion of the stream flow will jeopardize the food, energy and water security in the entire Indus basin,” said Romshoo, a professor at the earth sciences department at Kashmir University.

Neither Pakistan nor India’s respective foreign affairs and climate change ministries responded to requests for comment on the treaty or ongoing water disputes between the two countries.

ELECTION, FLOODS, MILITANTS

Last month, proceedings Pakistan had sought to resolve the disagreements over water started at the Court of Arbitration.

Pakistan is concerned about two Indian hydropower projects that it says will affect water flows on the Jhelum river and one of its tributaries, and water storage on the Chenab river.

India has boycotted the case, having previously suggested appointing a neutral expert while blaming Pakistan for dragging out the complaints process.

Just two days before the proceedings in The Hague began, New Delhi sent a notice to Islamabad asking it to agree to modify the Indus Waters Treaty within 90 days to guarantee that disputes would be handled between the two nations without any outside interference.

Neither nation can pull out of the treaty unilaterally as there is no exit clause, according to Sheikh, who said the countries “must agree over practical solutions.”

With Pakistan due to hold a general election this year, still recovering from devastating floods, and battling a financial crisis and an insurgency by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants, “there is limited bandwidth to get involved in water treaty talks,” said Delhi-based Omair Ahmad, an international relations analyst who has studied the treaty.

Ahmad Rafay Alam, a Pakistani environmental lawyer and activist, said reopening the treaty is unlikely given Pakistan’s multiplying concerns and the two nations’ mutual suspicions.

“But I understand (Pakistan’s) Ministry of Foreign Affairs is preparing a reply,” he said, adding that it was unlikely to be public as the government did not publish such documents.

CLIMATE IMPACTS LACKING

Pakistan’s Institute of Policy Studies said in 2017 that the Indus Waters Treaty now needs to be considered in light of other international agreements such as the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming, which Pakistan and India have both signed.

“There is very little in the treaty for the best possible use of the water resources of the river system, especially when we are in an era of climate change,” said Ashok Swain, a professor at Sweden’s Uppsala University and UN cultural agency UNESCO’s chair of international water cooperation.

Besides above-ground water flows, the Indus Basin’s underground water storage is the world’s second most “overstressed,” with almost no new water flowing into storage to offset extraction, a 2015 study in the journal Water Resources Research found.

The Katmandu-based International Center for Integrated Mountain Development warned in 2019 that even if global warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, glaciers that feed the Indus Basin are projected to lose a third of their total volume by the end of the century.

It is not just academics and analysts who have raised concerns about the water treaty’s challenges in dealing with climate change impacts.

In 2021, an Indian parliamentary standing committee on water resources urged the government to initiate a process for renegotiating the treaty with Pakistan as “present-day pressing issues such as climate change, global warming and environmental impacts ... were not taken into account.”

Yet India has yet to cite the climate or environment in any discussions around the treaty and that is unlikely to change, said Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the New Delhi-based South Asia Network of Dams, Rivers and People, a research group.

“The way it has panned out ... with all the hostilities and lack of trust from both sides, there is little chance of an agreement on dispute resolution bilaterally,” he added.


Journeyman Sikandar Raza blasts Lahore Qalandars to Pakistan Super League title

Updated 25 May 2025
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Journeyman Sikandar Raza blasts Lahore Qalandars to Pakistan Super League title

  • Needing 13 in last over to complete 202-run chase set by Quetta, Raza completed task during his seven-ball 22 not out 
  • Sri Lankan Kusal Perera led the chase with an undefeated 31-ball 62 studded with five boundaries and four sixes

LAHORE: Lahore Qalandars won the Pakistan Super League with a six-wicket win against Quetta Gladiators on Sunday, with Sikandar Raza hitting the winning runs after only landing back in Lahore minutes prior to the start of the final.

The 39-year old Zimbabwean landed in Lahore just ten minutes before the toss, after scoring a half century in his country’s innings defeat in the Nottingham Test against England a day before.

Needing 13 in the last over to complete a 202-run chase set by Quetta, Raza completed the task during his seven-ball 22 not out with two sixes and as many boundaries.

He hit a maximum and a four in the last over to seal the victory with one ball remaining.

Sri Lankan Kusal Perera led the chase with an undefeated 31-ball 62 studded with five boundaries and four sixes, adding 59 runs during the unbroken fifth wicket stand.

Opener Mohammad Naeem scored 46, with half a dozen sixes and one boundary, and Abdullah Shafique hit 41 to set Lahore on course for the highest-ever chase in a PSL final.

Lahore sealed their third title following triumphs in 2022 and 2023.

Raza said it was unbelievable to reach Lahore and achieve success.

“It is unbelievable, batted for 40-odd overs in the Test, flew to Dubai where I had breakfast and then lunch in Abu Dhabi and arrived minutes from the toss, so it’s incredible,” he said.

Hasan Nawaz scored a brilliant 76 to lift Quetta to 201-9 after they won the toss and batted.

Coming in at 21-2, Nawaz added 67 for the fourth wicket with Avishka Fernando (29) and another 46 with Dinesh Chandimal (22) to steady the ship.

Lahore skipper Shaheen Shah Afridi was the pick of Lahore’s bowlers with 3-24.

It was Faheem Ashraf (28) who lifted Quetta past 200, taking 23 off the last Salman Mirza over.

The six-team PSL was suspended on May 9 following the conflict between Pakistan and India.

However, the league resumed on May 17 after a ceasefire between the two countries.


Pakistan to hike defense spending in FY26 budget to counter India’s ‘hegemonistic designs’ — minister

Updated 25 May 2025
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Pakistan to hike defense spending in FY26 budget to counter India’s ‘hegemonistic designs’ — minister

  • Ahsan Iqbal says military would “certainly require more financial resources” to defend the country against India
  • Analysts say an over 40 percent hike in the current defense budget of $7.53 billion expected in budget for FY26

Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal said on Sunday Pakistan’s defense spending would be hiked in the budget for the next fiscal year as the military would “certainly require” more financial resources to defend the country against India.

Pakistan and India attacked each other with missiles, drones and artillery earlier this month in the worst military confrontation in decades between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The conflict erupted after an attack in April on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan. Islamabad has denied the charge.

The tensions erupted into a military confrontation on May 7 after India first hit what it said was “terrorism infrastructure” in Pakistan and Azad Kashmir with missiles, and Pakistan retaliated, saying it had downed six Indian fighter jets. 

Fighting between the two nations continued for four days until a ceasefire was reached on May 10.

“Obviously, Pakistan will do anything within its reach to make its defense impregnable,” Ahsan told Arab News in a telephone interview when asked if there were plans to increase defense spending in the budget for fiscal year 2025-26, which will be unveiled on June 10. 

“Our military would certainly require more financial resources to defend the country against the hegemonistic designs of Modi.”

Ahsan declined to disclose the new figures for the defense allocation. 

Beijing is Pakistan’s primary supplier of military equipment. This includes more than half its 400-odd fighters, primarily the JF-17 but also the J-10C.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China has sold Pakistan $8.2 billion in arms since 2015. China was the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter from 2020-24, and Pakistan was China’s top customer. Islamabad consumed 63 percent – nearly two thirds – of Chinese weapon sales in that period.

In response to a question about media reports China was fast-tracking delivery of its advanced J-35A fifth-generation stealth fighters to Pakistan, with the first batch expected by early 2026, planning minister Ahsan said:

“Pakistan’s fighter jets have already done well against India and the country will do anything it can to make it’s defenses stronger.”

The finance ministry declined to comment on a planned hike in defense spending but an official privy to budget talks within the government and with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said:

“We are discussing all the issues including Pakistan’s revenues and defense with the IMF but nothing has been finalized yet.”

An IMF official said the lender did not comment on any country’s defense budget.

An IMF mission led by Nathan Porter visited Pakistan last week to discuss the country’s new fiscal plan but returned without reaching an agreement.
 
“We will continue discussions toward agreeing over the authorities’ FY26 budget over the coming days,” the Washington-based lender said in a statement on May 24. 

The media wing of the Pakistan army declined to comment on the issue immediately.

“WAR-LIKE SITUATION”

Two days after the ceasefire, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned Pakistan New Delhi would target “terrorist hideouts” across the border again if there were new attacks on India and would not be deterred by what he called Islamabad’s “nuclear blackmail.”

“In the coming days, we will measure every step of Pakistan... what kind of attitude Pakistan will adopt,” Modi said, adding that India had only “paused” strikes.

Ashfaq Tola, the chairman of Karachi-based tax and corporate advisory firm Tola Associates and an adviser to past Pakistani governments on the budget-making process, said an over 40 percent hike in the current defense budget of Rs2.122 trillion ($7.53 billion) could be expected in the new financial plan. 

“Considering the ongoing situation, the country’s defense budget should stand at as much as Rs3,000 billion ($10.6 billion),” Tola said. 

“In such a big conflict, you need a lot of ammunition, surveillance, border movement, border troops management. To finance all these requirements, they will have to allocate more money this time.”

In a report published on Saturday, Tola Associates proposed raising the defense budget to Rs2.8 trillion, a 32 percent increase compared to the last fiscal year, owing to a “war-like situation” with India.

“The budgeted defense expenditure stood at Rs2,122 billion for FY25 while the actual expenditure till March 2025 was Rs1,424 billion. [However], due to the ongoing war situation with the neighboring country, defense spending may increase by up to 50 percent in the Q4FY25,” the report said. 

“Given the current regional tensions and the need to ensure Pakistan’s defense preparedness, we estimate total defense spending to reach Rs2.4 trillion by June 2025.”

After debt servicing, defense is the second biggest drain on Pakistan’s revenue, which the IMF, since approving a $7 billion bailout program for Islamabad last September, wants the government to increase through taxing incomes from agriculture, real estate and retail sectors in the new budget.

Pakistan’s historically large defense budget is attributed to a complex interplay of factors, primarily driven by regional security concerns and internal challenges. These include the perceived security threat from India as well as internal instability and security threats like terrorism. Additionally, debt servicing and the allocation of resources toward military interests have also played a role in shaping the budget.

In the last five years, Pakistan has increased its defense expenditures more than 60 percent to Rs 2.12 trillion ($7.53 billion), or two percent of GDP, according to data compiled by Karachi-based research firm Arif Habib Ltd.

“An increase [in defense spending] is certainly a possibility. The recent clash with India emboldened Pakistan’s military, as it has regained public goodwill and popularity that will give it the confidence to take potentially politically risky steps,” Michael Kugelman, a South Asia specialist based in Washington, told Arab News. 

“That includes ramping up an already-sizable defense budget at a moment when the economy, despite some recent stabilization on the macro level, remains fragile.”


Turkiye’s Erdogan, Pakistan’s Sharif discuss boosting cooperation in defense, energy, infrastructure

Updated 25 May 2025
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Turkiye’s Erdogan, Pakistan’s Sharif discuss boosting cooperation in defense, energy, infrastructure

  • Sharif is visiting Iran, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Turkiye on five-day regional diplomacy visit
  • Ankara openly supported Pakistan in recent military confrontation with archrival India

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on Sunday and said the two countries would strive to boost economic cooperation, particularly in defense production, energy, IT, infrastructure development and agriculture.

Sharif reached Istanbul on Sunday as the first stop in a five-day regional diplomacy tour that will also see him visit Iran, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan.

Ankara expressed solidarity with Islamabad in a military standoff with India earlier this month when the two nuclear-armed neighbors traded missile, drone and artillery strikes for days, killing around 70 people on both sides. A ceasefire was reached on May 10. 

Ankara also maintains cordial ties with India but after Erdogan’s expression of support for Pakistan in the recent conflict, Indian grocery shops and major online fashion retailers have boycotted Turkish products. Indian travel firms have also reported drop in Turkiye bookings over Pakistan support.

A statement released by Sharif’s office after delegation-level talks with Erdogan said the PM expressed “heartfelt gratitude” to the government and people of Turkiye for its support during the conflict with India, the worst between the two nations in decades. 

“Emphasizing the need to further strengthen economic cooperation, particularly through joint ventures and enhanced bilateral investment, the prime minister highlighted key sectors including renewable energy, information technology, defense production, infrastructure development, and agriculture as areas of mutual interest and potential,” the statement said. 

The two leaders also followed up on the implementation of key decisions taken during the 7th session of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council held in Islamabad on Feb. 13. 

“Both sides agreed to take steps for achieving 5 billion USD annual bilateral trade target as agreed earlier by the two leaders,” the statement from Sharif’s office said. 

Erdogan’s office said he told Sharif it was in the interest of Turkiye and Pakistan to increase “solidarity” in education, intelligence sharing and technological support in the fight against terrorism.

Erdogan spoke by phone with Sharif on May 7 to convey his solidarity after India first hit Pakistan and Azad Kashmir with missiles. Leaders from the two nations had several contacts subsequently and it is widely believed that Turkiye played an important role, besides the US, UAE and Saudi Arabia, in convincing India and Pakistan to back off and agree to a ceasefire. The two nations have strong ties, both being largely Muslim countries and sharing historical links.

Bitter rivals India and Pakistan have fought three wars, including two over the disputed region of Kashmir, since gaining independence from British rule in 1947. Both claim the Himalayan territory in its entirety but rule it in part. They both acquired nuclear weapons in 1998.


Delegation-level talks begin in Istanbul between Pakistan’s Sharif, Turkiye’s Erdogan

Updated 25 May 2025
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Delegation-level talks begin in Istanbul between Pakistan’s Sharif, Turkiye’s Erdogan

  • Sharif is visiting Iran, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Turkiye on five-day regional diplomacy visit
  • All four nations supported Pakistan in recent military confrontation with archrival India

ISLAMABAD: Delegation-level talks between Pakistan and Turkiye began on Sunday evening in Istanbul, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Tayyip Erdogan, the Pakistani premier’s office said.

Sharif reached Istanbul on Sunday as the first stop in a five-day regional diplomacy tour that will also see him visit Iran, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan. Ankara supported Islamabad in a military standoff with India earlier this month when the two nuclear-armed neighbors traded missile, drone and artillery strikes for days, killing around 70 people on both sides. A ceasefire was reached on May 10. 

The conflict, the worst between the neighbors in decades, was triggered by a militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22 that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan. Islamabad denies involvement. 

“During the meeting, bilateral relations, regional and international issues, including the fight against terrorism, will be discussed,” Erdogan’s head of communications, Fahrettin Altun, said on X about the Turkish president’s meeting with Sharif. 

Erdogan received Sharif at the presidential palace ahead of the talks and will later also host a dinner for the visiting premier. 

The PM’s office in Islamabad said Sharif would hold wide-ranging discussions with the leaders of Turkiye, Iran, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan during the regional tour on “an entire range of issues covering bilateral relations and matters of regional and international importance.”

“He will thank friendly countries for the support they have given to Pakistan during the recent crisis with India,” the PMO statement added. 

Erdogan spoke by phone with Sharif on May 7 to convey his solidarity after India first hit Pakistan and Azad Kashmir with missiles. Leaders from the two nations had several contacts subsequently and Turkiye publicly took Islamabad’s side. It is widely believed that Turkiye played an important role, besides the US, UAE and Saudi Arabia, in convincing India and Pakistan to back off and agree to a ceasefire. The two nations have historically strong ties. 

Bitter rivals India and Pakistan have fought three wars, including two over the disputed region of Kashmir, since gaining independence from British rule in 1947. Both claim the Himalayan territory in its entirety but rule it in part. They both acquired nuclear weapons in 1998.


Nine ‘Indian-sponsored’ militants killed in Pakistan’s northwest — army

Updated 25 May 2025
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Nine ‘Indian-sponsored’ militants killed in Pakistan’s northwest — army

  • Both India and Pakistan have traded accusations of supporting militancy on each other’s soil, a charge that each denies
  • Pakistan has blamed India for being behind recent terror attacks in the country, including suicide bombing of school bus

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan army said on Sunday it had killed nine “Indian-sponsored” militants in three separate operations in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Tensions remain high after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on May 10 following the most dramatic escalation of hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbors in decades earlier this month.

Since the military confrontation cooled off with the truce, Pakistan has blamed India for being behind several terror attacks in the country, including when three children were among at least five people killed when a suicide bomber struck an army school bus in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province earlier this week. India denies it backs militancy in Pakistan.

In a statement released on Sunday evening, the army said it had carried out three operations in KP’s Dera Ismail, Tank and Khyber districts. 

“An intelligence-based operation was conducted by the security forces in Dera Ismail Khan District … and after an intense fire exchange, four Indian sponsored khwarij [militants] were sent to hell,” the statement said.

It added that two militants were separately killed in Tank and three in Khyber.

“Sanitization operations are being conducted to eliminate any other kharji found in the area, as the security forces of Pakistan are determined to wipe out the menace of Indian-sponsored terrorism from the country,” the statement added.

Both India and Pakistan have traded accusations of supporting militancy on each other’s soil, a charge that each denies. The latest escalation, in which the two countries traded missiles and drones, was sparked when India accused Pakistan of supporting a militant assault on tourists in the Indian-administered portion of the contested region of Kashmir. Islamabad denies any involvement.

Pakistan has mostly blamed India of supporting a separatist insurgency in Balochistan, a southwestern province that borders Iran and Afghanistan. It also accuses it of backing the Pakistani Taliban who regularly carry out attacks in the country’s northwestern and other regions. 

India denies the allegations.