Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?

Thom Serafin: Trump as a potential broker for regional peace in the Middle East
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Updated 17 November 2024
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Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?

  • Political consultants believe president-elect’s rapport with Israeli PM positions him uniquely to influence regional dynamics
  • Jeff Davis and Thom Serafin unpacked the ramifications of the US election results on The Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO: The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States is expected to open pathways to peace in the Middle East, according to predictions from two prominent political consultants from both the Republican and Democratic parties.

Republican strategist Jeff Davis, president of Victory Media Inc., and Democratic consultant Thom Serafin suggested on Thursday that Trump’s leverage and strong relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could facilitate a ceasefire with the Palestinians and potentially pave the way for support from Saudi support.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)

Appearing on The Ray Hanania Radio Show, both consultants agreed that Trump’s rapport with the Israeli leadership and his previous initiatives in the region, including the Abraham Accords, position him uniquely to influence Middle East dynamics.

“(Trump) is well respected, especially in Israel. When he was president last time, Jerusalem became the capital,” Serafin said. “There’s a lot of good blood there. He thought they were coming to an accord where they would have the long-term peace at the time.”

Trump’s first term saw the official US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, marked by the controversial relocation of the US Embassy in 2018. Concurrently, he spearheaded the Abraham Accords, paving the way for normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and later Morocco.




This photo taken on September 15, 2020, shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (3R) and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan with the historic Abraham Accords document at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

Although these accords encountered resistance from some neighboring Arab nations, they laid the groundwork for potential US-mediated discussions between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. However, that prospect was cut short following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel and the subsequent escalation in Gaza, dashing hopes for a new era of Middle East peace and stability.

“Everything blew up on Oct. 7 when they were, (rather) they thought they were getting very, very close (to a deal). But you need somebody who’s full-time there and goes toe to toe with Netanyahu. And I think Trump is the guy who could do that,” he said.

Serafin, who has an extensive background in media and political consultancy, having worked as press secretary on several US Senate election campaigns and served on the staffs of Senator Alan Dixon and Representative Dan Rostenkowski, highlighted the significance of the hostages held by Hamas as a key element in negotiating peace with regional powers, including Iran and its proxies.




In this photo taken on October 24, 2024, relatives of hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Palestinian militants during the October 7, 2023 attacks protest outside the Israeli prime minister's residence in central Jerusalem, calling for action to release the hostages. (AFP)

“If he’s capable of reaching the Israelis, and I think he is, that’s the key,” he said. “If you can get Israel to be accommodating to what he needs to do, you can bring peace, at least ceasefire, to that part of the world.”

Since October last year, escalating violence in the Middle East has spread from Gaza to Lebanon, drawing diplomats worldwide into urgent efforts to mediate a solution.

INNUMBERS

• 2,600 Trump’s margin of victory over Harris in Arab-majority Michigan suburb of Dearborn.

• 17,400 Joe Biden’s margin of victory over Trump in the same city in 2020.

The conflict, driven by clashes involving Iran-backed groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, has seen limited restraint from Israeli officials, further fueling tensions. This crisis has also taken center stage in the US election season, especially among Arab Americans some of whom view the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the situation as a betrayal, given their community’s crucial support for the Democrats’ 2020 win.

Davis noted that while many Arab Americans declined to endorse Harris due to her stance on the conflict, Trump garnered substantial support within the community resulting in his re-election on Tuesday, but still has “some way to go” to fully solidify these ties.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, right, looks on as local Muslim leaders speak during a campaign rally on Oct. 26, 2024, in Novi, Michigan. (AP)

He pointed to Michigan’s Arab-majority Dearborn as a case in point, where Trump won 42.5 percent of the Arab American vote compared to Harris’s 36.3 percent. Notably, anti-war critic Dr. Jill Stein drew 18.3 percent in the area, reflecting broader discontent within the community.

“Let’s talk about Michigan a little bit. Because of the population centers in Michigan being Arab American and how Trump did well there. And he did well there, but he won those areas,” Davis said.

Analyzing data from Dearborn, he noted that Trump still has ground to cover with the Arab American community, acknowledging that Stein’s appeal in Dearborn was significantly stronger than her national average.

Davis, a seasoned Republican strategist who has advised campaigns across several battleground states, emphasized that although Stein’s Green Party did not reach the 5 percent threshold needed for major party status, Trump’s support within the Arab American community was bolstered by endorsements from figures like former Democrat Dr. Bishara Bahbah and Dr. Massad Boulos, father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, second right, greets local Muslim leaders during a campaign rally in Novi, Michigan on Oct. 26, 2024. (AP)

Both Davis and Serafin noted that Trump made unexpected inroads into traditional Democratic voter bases, securing 45 percent of the Hispanic vote and nearly 27 percent of the Black vote. Surprising many experts, Trump’s success in gaining support from key demographics enabled him to outpace Harris in critical swing states. However, the two consultants emphasized that Harris’s primary setback was her struggle to connect with voters on a personal level.

“I recall that old phrase, ‘I feel your pain.’ She did not exhibit that on the campaign trail,” Serafin said. “She had the joy and all these other things, but ironically, she wasn’t feeling the pain of the average voter that was struggling.”

He argued that Harris’ lack of empathy during the campaign failed to fully address concerns around the economy and rising inflation.




Democratic consultant Thom Serafin believes Vice President Kamala Harris’ lack of empathy during the campaign failed to fully address concerns around the economy and rising inflation. (Supplied)

“Everything I learned in college, over the last 50 years, 60 years in life, is (that) inflation is the hidden pain, hidden taxation. You know, all of a sudden you get your hundred-dollars paycheck every week, but the bills are getting higher and higher. You just can’t meet ends,” Serafin added.

Polling throughout the campaign, including an Arab News/YouGov survey, consistently highlighted economic concerns as top priorities for voters, also among Arab Americans, who indicated them as nearly on par with foreign policy issues in the Middle East.

Davis and Serafin also contended that media coverage frequently misrepresented Trump’s statements, including attributing to him a comedian’s reference to Puerto Rico as a “garbage island,” or claims that Trump suggested aiming guns at Liz Cheney.




Republican strategist Jeff Davis, president of Victory Media Inc. (Supplied)

In reality, Trump was not present when the comedian made his remark, and his statements on Cheney referred to her lack of military experience, not an incitement to violence.

The consultants also said that Democratic efforts to emphasize Trump’s legal battles, many of which originated from the Democrat-led Department of Justice, further deepened the polarization, arguably contributing to his game. Trump currently faces multiple felony charges related to fraud, election interference and obstruction.

“Every time they called him the felon, I thought to myself, what a mistake. Because everybody knows he’s only a felon because the Democrats wanted him to be one. It wasn’t because he was legitimately a felon,” Serafin said. “And, so, I thought that was always a mistake when she called him that way and some other people. After a while, they stopped doing that because they probably tested that term, and it was backfiring.”




T-shirts on display for sale at a shopping mall in Las Vegas, Nevada, on November 6, 2024, including one reading "I vote for the convicted felon", the day after former US President Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election. (AFP)

Both Davis and Serafin believe these cases may be dismissed, setting the stage for another four years under Trump’s leadership — one that will inherit a divided domestic landscape and face the immense challenge of upholding his promise to end the conflict that has claimed nearly 50,000 lives, while working toward the peace and stability long desired in the Middle East.

Serafin and Davis shared their insights on The Ray Hanania Radio Show, aired Thursday on the US Arab Radio Network in Michigan and sponsored by Arab News.

For more information or to listen to past shows, visit ArabNews.com/rayradioshow.

 


Israel carries out strikes on two Syrian cities, Syrian state news agency says

An Israeli fighter jet fires a rocket as it flies over an area near the Syrian capital Damascus on April 30, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 03 May 2025
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Israel carries out strikes on two Syrian cities, Syrian state news agency says

  • Israel bombed Syria frequently when the country was governed by Assad, targeting a foothold established by his ally Iran during the civil war

CAIRO: Israeli strikes targeted the vicinity of Syria’s Damascus, Hama and Daraa countryside late on Friday, Syrian state news agency SANA reported.
The strikes on Damascus countryside killed one civilian and injured four others in Hama, SANA added.
Israel’s repeated strikes on Syria act as a warning to the new Islamist rulers in Damascus, which Israel views as a potential threat on its border.
The Israeli army confirmed the strikes on Syria on Friday, saying it targeted “a military site, anti-aircraft cannons, and surface-to-air missile infrastructure.”
The Israeli army has previously said it targeted Syria’s military infrastructure, including headquarters and sites containing weapons and equipment, since mainly Sunni Muslim Islamist fighters toppled President Bashar Assad in December.
Earlier on Friday, Israel bombed an area near the presidential palace in Damascus, in its clearest warning yet to Syria’s new Islamist-led authorities of its readiness to ramp up military action, which has included strikes it said were in support of the country’s Druze minority.
Israel bombed Syria frequently when the country was governed by Assad, targeting a foothold established by his ally Iran during the civil war.

 


Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claims to have seized strategic western town

Updated 02 May 2025
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Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claims to have seized strategic western town

  • RSF paramilitaries say they took key town of Al Nahud in West Kordofan state
  • Area is home to the headquarters of the 18th Infantry Brigade

CAIRO: Sudan’s notorious paramilitary group claimed a “sweeping victory” Friday saying it took control of the key town of Al Nahud in West Kordofan state in a fight that intensified a day earlier.
A victory there by the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, would mark a strategic loss for Sudan’s military in its war with the paramilitary force as the territory is home to the headquarters of the 18th Infantry Brigade.
The Sudanese army didn’t immediately comment on its social media channels on whether it lost Al Nahud to its rival.
Sudan’s Culture and Information Minister Khalid Ali Aleisir said on his Facebook account on Friday the RSF committed crimes against defenseless citizens in the town, looting their properties and destroying public facilities.
The RSF said on its Telegram channel Friday that it destroyed vehicles belonging to the army and seized their weapons and ammunition during the battle for Al Nahud. The paramilitary group also claimed that it managed to secure the city’s facilities and markets after defeating the army.
The war erupted on April 15, 2023, with pitched battles between the military and the RSF in the streets of the capital Khartoum that quickly spread to other parts of the country.
RSF attacks in Al Nahud have killed more than 300 unarmed civilians, the Preliminary Committee of Sudan Doctors’ Trade Union said on Facebook on Friday. The Associated Press couldn’t independently verify that figure.
The Resistance Committees of Al Nahud condemned the RSF attacks, which it said began Thursday morning.
“They invaded the city, stormed residential neighborhoods, terrorized unarmed civilians, and committed cold-blooded murders against innocent civilians whose only crime was to cling to their dignity and refuse to leave their homes to the machine of killing and terror,” the Resistance Committees said Thursday on Facebook.
An army loss of Al Nahud would impact its operational capabilities in Northern Kordofan state, according to the Sudan War Monitor, an open source collaborative project that has been documenting the two-year-war. Al Nahud is a strategic town because it’s located along a main road that the army could use to advance into the Darfur region, which the RSF mostly controls.
Al Nahud also shelters displaced people fleeing from Al-Obeid, Umm Kadada, Khartoum and El-Fasher — the provincial capital of North Darfur province, according to the Darfur Victims Support Organization.
Meanwhile, in North Darfur, the fighting has killed at least 542 people in the last three weeks, though the actual death toll is likely higher, according to UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk. This figure includes the recent RSF attacks on El Fasher and Abu Shouk displacement camp, which killed at least 40 civilians.
“The horror unfolding in Sudan knows no bounds,” said Türk i n a statement on Thursday.
Türk also mentioned “extremely disturbing” reports of extrajudicial killings committed by RSF, with at least 30 men in civilian clothing executed by the paramilitary fighters in Al Salha in southern Omdurman.
“I have personally alerted both leaders of the RSF and SAF to the catastrophic human rights consequences of this war. These harrowing consequences are a daily, lived reality for millions of Sudanese. It is well past time for this conflict to stop,” said Türk.
The war in Sudan has killed at least 20,000 people, but the real toll is probably far higher. Nearly 13 million people have fled their homes, 4 million of them streaming into neighboring countries.
Half the population of 50 million faces hunger. The World Food Program has confirmed famine in 10 locations and warns it could spread further, putting millions at risk of starvation.


Tunisia court jails former officials including former PM Larayedh

Updated 02 May 2025
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Tunisia court jails former officials including former PM Larayedh

  • The sentences are for 18 to 36 years, and apply to eight people

TUNIS: A Tunisian court on Friday handed down lengthy prison sentences against former officials, including former Prime Minister Ali Larayedh, a senior figure in the opposition Ennahda party, on charges of facilitating the departure of militants to Syria over the past decade.
TAP state news agency quoted a judicial official as saying that the sentences are for 18 to 36 years, and apply to eight people.


West Bank residents losing hope 100 days into military assault

Updated 02 May 2025
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West Bank residents losing hope 100 days into military assault

  • Israel’s military in late February deployed tanks in Jenin for the first time in the West Bank since the end of the second intifada

JENIN: On a torn-up road near the refugee camp where she once lived, Saja Bawaqneh said she struggled to find hope 100 days after an Israeli offensive in the occupied West Bank forced her to flee.
Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced in the north of the territory since Israel began a major “anti-terrorist operation” dubbed “Iron Wall” on Jan. 21.
Bawaqneh said life was challenging and uncertain since she was forced to leave Jenin refugee camp — one of three targeted by the offensive, along with Tulkarm and Nur Shams.
“We try to hold on to hope, but unfortunately, reality offers none,” she said.
“Nothing is clear in Jenin camp even after 100 days — we still don’t know whether we will return to our homes, or whether those homes have been damaged or destroyed.”
Bawaqneh said residents were banned from entering the camp and that “no one knows ... what happened inside.”
Israel’s military in late February deployed tanks in Jenin for the first time in the West Bank since the end of the second intifada.
In early March, it said it had expanded its offensive to more city areas.
AFP footage this week showed power lines dangling above Jenin’s streets blocked with barriers made of churned-up earth.
Wastewater pooled in the road outside the Jenin Governmental Hospital.
Farha Abu Al-Hija, a member of the Popular Committee for Services in Jenin camp, said families living in the vicinity of the camp were being removed by Israeli forces daily.
“A hundred days have passed like a hundred years for the displaced people of Jenin camp,” she said.
“Their situation is dire, the conditions are harsh, and they are enduring pain unlike anything they have ever known.”
Medical charity Doctors Without Borders in March denounced the “extremely precarious” situation of Palestinians displaced by the military assault, saying they were going “without proper shelter, essential services, and access to health care.”
It said the scale of forced displacement and destruction of camps “has not been seen in decades” in the West Bank.
The UN says about 40,000 residents have been displaced since Jan. 21.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said the offensive would last several months and ordered troops to stop residents from returning.
Israeli forces put up barriers at several entrances of the Jenin camp in late April, AFP footage showed.
The Israeli offensive began two days after a truce came into effect in the Gaza Strip between the Israeli military and Gaza’s Hamas rulers.
Two months later, that truce collapsed and Israel resumed its offensive in Gaza, a Palestinian territory separate from the West Bank.
Since the Gaza war began in October 2023, violence has soared in the West Bank.
Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 925 Palestinians in the territory since then, according to the Ramallah-based Health Ministry.

 


Gaza rescuers say 42 killed in Israeli strikes

Updated 02 May 2025
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Gaza rescuers say 42 killed in Israeli strikes

  • Nine people were killed when an Israeli air strike hit a home in Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza
  • In Gaza City, a strike on a community kitchen claimed the lives of six more

GAZA CITY: Gaza’s civil defense agency said Israeli strikes killed at least 42 people Friday in the Palestinian territory, devastated by war and under a total Israeli aid blockade for two months.
Israel resumed its military campaign in the Gaza Strip on March 18 after the collapse of a ceasefire that had largely halted the fighting.
Nine people were killed when an Israeli air strike hit a home in Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza, civil defense official Mohammed Al-Mughayyir told AFP.
AFP footage in the aftermath of a strike on Bureij camp showed Palestinians searching for casualties in the rubble of a flattened building.
“They gave us no warning, no phone call — we woke up at midnight to smoke, rubble, stones, and shrapnel raining down on us,” said Mohammed Al-Sheikh, standing among collapsed concrete slabs.
“We pulled out martyrs — bodies and limbs from under the rubble.”
Another six people were killed in a strike targeting the Al-Masri family home in the northern city of Beit Lahia, civil defense official Mughayyir added.
In Gaza City, a strike on a community kitchen claimed the lives of six more, the civil defense agency reported.
Across the Gaza Strip, at least 21 other deaths were reported in similar attacks, the agency said.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said on Thursday that at least 2,326 people have been killed since Israel resumed its campaign in Gaza, bringing the overall death toll since the war broke out to 52,418.
The war erupted after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023.
That attack resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people on the Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official figures.
Militants also abducted 251 people, 58 of whom are still being held in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
The Israeli government says its renewed campaign aims to force Hamas to free the remaining captives, although critics charge it puts them in mortal danger.
Israel halted aid deliveries to Gaza on March 2, days before the collapse of the ceasefire which had come into effect on January 19.
The United Nations has repeatedly warned of the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe on the ground, with famine again looming.
On Friday, the International Committee of the Red Cross said the humanitarian response in Gaza was on the “verge of total collapse.”
“This situation must not — and cannot — be allowed to escalate further,” its deputy director of operations, Pascal Hundt, said in a statement.