As truce talks progress, Lebanon’s army cornered by politics, funding

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Updated 19 November 2024
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As truce talks progress, Lebanon’s army cornered by politics, funding

A photo taken from southern Lebanon’s area of Marjayoun shows smoke billowing after Israeli strikes in the village of Khiam.
  • Hezbollah has long been stronger militarily than the Lebanese Armed Forces, which have stayed on the sidelines of the conflict
  • While the army will likely be required to deploy thousands of troops to the south after any ceasefire deal, it will need Hezbollah’s nod to do so

BEIRUT: Intensifying efforts for a truce in Lebanon have brought into focus the role of the country’s army, which would be expected to keep the south free of Hezbollah weapons but is neither willing nor able to confront the Iran-backed group, seven sources said.
Hezbollah, though weakened by Israel’s year-long offensive, has long been stronger militarily than the Lebanese Armed Forces, which have stayed on the sidelines of the conflict even after Israel sent ground forces into south Lebanon on Oct. 1.
While the army will likely be required to deploy thousands of troops to the south after any ceasefire deal, it will need Hezbollah’s nod to do so and will avoid confrontations that could trigger internal strife, said the sources — three people close to the army and four diplomats, including from donor countries.
“The Lebanese army is in a situation that is sensitive and difficult. It cannot practice normal missions like the armies of other countries because there is another military force in the country,” said retired Lebanese brigadier general Hassan Jouni, referring to Hezbollah, which enjoys a semi-formal military status as a resistance force.
This week, both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah agreed to a US truce proposal, a senior Lebanese official told Reuters, while cautioning Lebanon still had “comments” on the draft. Hezbollah’s approval is needed for any ceasefire to take effect, given its arsenal and sway over the Lebanese state.
A second official said exactly how the army would be deployed to the south was still under discussion.
The United States is keen to see the army confront Hezbollah more directly and shared that view with Lebanese officials, said two Western diplomats and one of the sources close to the army.
But Hezbollah’s military strength, its shares of Lebanon’s cabinet and parliament, and the proportion of army troops who are Shiite Muslim, means such a move would risk internal conflict, they said.
Scenes of the army “storming into houses looking for Hezbollah weapons” would lead to a civil war, one of the diplomats said, arguing that the army could instead work alongside UN peacekeeping troops to patrol the south without confronting Hezbollah directly.
Neither the army, Hezbollah or Israel’s military responded to questions for this story.
Last week, Hezbollah spokesman Mohammad Afif told reporters at a press conference that Hezbollah’s relationship with the army remained “strong.”
“You will not be able to sever the connection between the army and the resistance (Hezbollah),” he said, addressing those he said were trying to nudge the army to take on the group. Afif was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut on Sunday.
The White House declined to comment for this story. Asked by Reuters about the role of Lebanon’s military, the US State Department said it could not comment on “ongoing, private negotiations.”
Lebanese, Israeli and US officials all agree that the cornerstone of a long-lasting truce lies in better implementing United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last round of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
Resolution 1701 says southern Lebanon should be free of weapons that do not belong to the state, and foresees as many as 15,000 Lebanese troops deployed to the south. It was never fully implemented by either side and Hezbollah was able to arm itself and build up fortifications in the south after 2006.

Unused watchtowers 
For months, watchtowers donated by Britain for the army to install in the south have gathered dust in a warehouse near Beirut, awaiting a truce, while diplomats negotiate how they could be erected in a way that would antagonize neither Israel nor Hezbollah, two diplomats and a source familiar with the situation said.
The plight of the watchtowers highlights some of the challenges the army will face with any deployment to the southern border.
The army has long avoided fighting Hezbollah, standing aside when the Shiite group and its allies took over Beirut in 2008.
Lebanese troops have also been careful not to clash with Israel, withdrawing from the border as Israeli forces prepared to invade in October. The army has held fire even when Israel has struck them directly, killing 36 Lebanese soldiers so far.
The army’s reliance on foreign funding, especially hundreds of millions of dollars from Washington, further complicates its predicament.
Last year, Washington began disbursing cash to fortify troop salaries slashed by Lebanon’s financial crisis after army canteens stopped serving meat and the military resorted to offering sightseeing tours in its helicopters to raise cash.
Two of the sources familiar with the army’s thinking said the risk of losing US support was a major concern for army chief Joseph Aoun, as was keeping the army unified to deploy once a truce is reached.
“Their priority now is to remain intact for the day after,” one of them said.
In response to questions about the army’s role in Lebanon, Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for the transition team of US President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office in January, said he would act to restore “peace through strength around the world” when he returns to the White House.
Trump has nominated staunchly pro-Israel figures to influential diplomatic posts, including real estate developer Steve Witkoff as his Middle East envoy. Witkoff did not reply to questions.
One of the sources close to the army said it had no choice but to wait until the conflict ends to assess the state of Hezbollah’s military strength before its own role becomes clear.
Founded in 1945, the army’s troops are split almost evenly between Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims and Christians, making it a longstanding symbol of national unity.
Consisting of approximately 40,000 active personnel, the army sees itself primarily as the guarantor of civil peace, a Lebanese security source and the two sources familiar with the army’s thinking said, particularly as tensions rise with hundreds of thousands of displaced Shiites seeking refuge in primarily Christian, Sunni and Druze areas in the current war.
It has also fought hard-line Sunni groups — in Palestinian camps in 2007 and along Lebanon’s border with Syria in 2017.
The army fractured along sectarian lines in 1976, in the early years of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war, catalyzing Lebanon’s descent into militia rule, which ended in 1990 with armed groups relinquishing their weapons — except Hezbollah.

Aid delayed
Some international aid to the army has already been held up, three more diplomats said.
World powers pledged $200 million to the force in Paris last month on the expectation that it would go toward recruiting new troops, but differences have emerged.
US officials have sought to withhold funds until a ceasefire is agreed to pressure Lebanon to make concessions, while Lebanon says it needs to recruit first to be able to implement a ceasefire, a European diplomat, a senior diplomat and a UN source told Reuters.
A US official disputed that Washington was using aid as leverage. The State Department said Washington was committed to supporting the Lebanese state and its sovereign institutions. The White House declined to comment.
However, there is precedent. US lawmakers in 2010 briefly blocked funding for Lebanon’s military after a deadly border clash between Lebanon and Israel. In late September, a Republican US lawmaker introduced a bill aiming to halt all financial aid, including for salaries, to the army until the Lebanese state barred Hezbollah as a political party.
Since 2008, ministerial statements have given Hezbollah legitimacy as an armed entity in the country alongside the military, without clearly detailing limits on its role.
“The situation needs internal political understandings to determine the role of Hezbollah in the security and military sphere in Lebanon,” said Jouni, the retired brigadier general. 


Jordan reopens airspace to civilian aircraft

Jordan reopens airspace to civilian aircraft
Updated 51 min 46 sec ago
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Jordan reopens airspace to civilian aircraft

Jordan reopens airspace to civilian aircraft
  • Jordan said airlines would be provided with the “necessary” information to notify passengers and stakeholders of the latest data on air traffic

DUBAI: Jordan has reopened its airspace to civilian aircraft on Saturday, signaling belief there was no longer an immediate danger of further attacks after crossfire between Israel and Iran disrupted East-West travel through the Middle East.
But the country “is continuing to assess risks to civil aviation and monitor developments after Jordan’s airspace was reopened this morning,” a statement from the civil aviation authority said, and reported by state-run Petra news.
The Kingdom on Friday closed its airspace to all flights due to the barrage of missiles and rockets from Iran.
The statement also said airlines would be provided with the “necessary” information to notify passengers and stakeholders of the latest data on air traffic.
Lebanon’s government also temporarily reopened its airspace on Saturday.
Lebanon reopened its airspace on Saturday at 10:00 a.m. (0700 GMT).
The airspace will be shut again starting from 10:30 p.m. (1930 GMT) until 6:00 a.m. (0300 GMT) on Sunday, NNA reported, citing the Lebanese civil aviation authority.


Iran warns US, UK and France against helping stop strikes on Israel

Iran warns US, UK and France against helping stop strikes on Israel
Updated 35 min 37 sec ago
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Iran warns US, UK and France against helping stop strikes on Israel

Iran warns US, UK and France against helping stop strikes on Israel
  • Tehran warns their bases and ships in the region will be targeted

 SUMMARY

Tehran has warned the US, UK and France that their bases and ships in the region will be targeted if they help stop Iranian strikes on Israel.

Around 60 people, including 20 children, were killed in an Israeli attack on a housing complex in Iranian capital Tehran.

Israel’s defense chief warns that ‘Tehran will burn’ if it keeps firing missiles at Israeli civilians.

Iran’s civil aviation authority has declared the country’s airspace closed “until further notice.”

Iran says Israel killed three more nuclear scientists, total now nine.

CAIRO: Iran has warned the United States, United Kingdom and France that their bases and ships in the region will be targeted if they help stop Tehran’s strikes on Israel, Iran state media reported on Saturday.

Iran’s state TV also reported that around 60 people, including 20 children, were killed in an Israeli attack on a housing complex in Iranian capital Tehran. Two people were also killed in an Israeli attack on a missile site in Assadabad in western Iran.

Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported an Israeli strike near the northwestern Tabriz refinery, saying smoke was rising from the facility.

Three Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed in Israeli attacks, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Saturday. The scientists were identified as Ali Bakaei Karimi, Mansour Asgari, and Saeid Borji, Tasnim said.

Iran’s strikes against Israel will continue, with targets set to expand to include US bases in the region in the coming days, Iran’s Fars news agency reported on Saturday, citing senior Iranian military officials.

READ: Iran strikes back at Israel as flights across the region are cancelled

“This confrontation will not end with last night’s limited actions and Iran’s strikes will continue, and this action will be very painful and regrettable for the aggressors,” Fars reported, citing senior military officials.

They were quoted saying that the war would “spread in the coming days to all areas occupied by this (Israeli) regime and American bases in the region”.

Iran’s Esfahan and Natanz nuclear sites significantly damaged

Iran’s Esfahan and Natanz nuclear sites were significantly damaged due to Israeli strikes on the two facilities, an Israeli military official said on Saturday.

The official said that it would take more than a few weeks for Iran to repair damage at the two sites, adding that the strikes also killed nine senior nuclear Iranian scientists.

Israel attacked over 150 targets in Iran with hundreds of munitions, the official said, adding that the aerial road to the Iranian capital Tehran was effectively open.

He said that Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel, most of which were intercepted.

‘Tehran will burn’

Defense Minister Israel Katz on Saturday warned that “Tehran will burn” if Iran fired more missiles at Israel, as the arch foes traded fire for a second day.

“The Iranian dictator is turning the citizens of Iran into hostages and bringing about a reality in which they – especially the residents of Tehran – will pay a heavy price because of the criminal harm to Israeli civilians,” Katz was quoted as saying in a statement.

“If (Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei continues to fire missiles toward the Israeli home front – Tehran will burn.”

READ: How Israeli strikes have pushed Iran’s leadership into a corner

The threat of a wider war comes as Iran and Israel continue targeting each other on Saturday after Israel launched its biggest-ever air offensive against its longtime foe in a bid to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran airspace closed ‘until further notice’

Iran’s civil aviation authority has declared the country’s airspace closed “until further notice,” state media reported Saturday, as Israel and Iran continued to trade fire for a second day.

“No flights will be operated at any airports in the country in order to protect the safety of passengers... until further notice,” the official IRNA news agency said.


How Israeli strikes have pushed Iran’s leadership into a corner

How Israeli strikes have pushed Iran’s leadership into a corner
Updated 14 June 2025
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How Israeli strikes have pushed Iran’s leadership into a corner

How Israeli strikes have pushed Iran’s leadership into a corner
  • Severely degraded missile capabilities and military network mean Tehran is unable to respond with effective strikes
  • Regional security experts believe Tehran is left with limited options, each more perilous than the other

DUBAI: Israel has gutted Iran’s nuclear and military leadership with airstrikes that leave a weakened Tehran with few options to retaliate, including an all-out war that it is neither equipped for nor likely to win, according to four regional officials.

The overnight strikes by Israel – repeated for second night on Friday – have ratcheted up the confrontation between the arch foes to an unprecedented level after years of war in the shadows, which burst into the open when Iran’s ally Hamas attacked Israel in 2023.

READ: Iran warns US, UK and France against helping stop strikes on Israel

Regional security sources said it was unlikely that Tehran could respond with similarly effective strikes because its missile capabilities and military network in the region have been severely degraded by Israel since the Hamas attacks that triggered the Gaza war.

State news agency IRNA said that Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel on Friday in retaliation. But the Israeli military said the missiles numbered fewer than 100 and most were intercepted or fell short. No casualties were immediately reported.

Rescue personnel work at an impact site following missile attack from Iran in Ramat Gan, Israel on June 14, 2025. (Reuters)

The regional security sources said Iran’s leaders, humiliated and increasingly preoccupied with their own survival, cannot afford to appear weak in the face of Israeli military pressure, raising the prospect of further escalation – including covert attacks on Israel or even the perilous option of seeking to build a nuclear bomb rapidly.

“They can’t survive if they surrender,” said Mohanad Hage Ali at the Carnegie Middle East Center, a think tank in Beirut. “They need to strike hard against Israel but their options are limited. I think their next option is withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”

Withdrawing from the NPT would be a serious escalation as it would signal Iran is accelerating its enrichment program to produce weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, experts said.

READ: UN chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ after Israel strikes Iran

Iran’s leadership has not confirmed whether it would attend a sixth round of deadlocked talks with the US over its nuclear program scheduled for Sunday in Oman.

Tehran’s regional sway has been weakened by Israel’s attacks on its proxies – from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq – as well as by the ousting of Iran’s close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

Western sanctions have also hit Iran’s crucial oil exports and the economy is reeling from a string of crises including a collapsing currency and rampant inflation, as well as energy and water shortages.

People gather for a protest against Israel’s wave of strikes on Iran in central Tehran on June 13, 2025. (AFP)

“They can’t retaliate through anyone. The Israelis are dismantling the Iranian empire piece by piece, bit by bit … and now they’ve started sowing internal doubt about (the invincibility of) the regime,” said Sarkis Naoum, a regional expert. “This is massive hit.”

Israel strikes targeting key facilities in Tehran and other cities continued into the night on Friday. The Iranian foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was defiant on Friday, saying Israel had initiated a war and would suffer “a bitter fate.”

Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center think tank, said Iran has been backed into a corner with limited options. One possibility would be to offer assurances – in private – that it will abandon uranium enrichment and dismantle its nuclear capabilities, since any public declaration of such a capitulation would likely provoke a fierce domestic backlash.

Sites of strikes and explosions following the attack of June 13.

He said another option could involve a return to clandestine warfare, reminiscent of the 1980s bombings targeting US and Israeli embassies and military installations.

A third, and far more perilous option, would be to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and accelerate its uranium enrichment program.

Such a move, Sager warned, would be tantamount to a declaration of war and would almost certainly provoke a strong international response – not only from Israel, but also from the US and other Western powers.

Trump has threatened military action to ensure Iran does not obtain an atomic weapon. He reiterated his position on Thursday, saying: “Iran must completely give up hopes of obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

First responders gather outside a building that was hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 13, 2025. (Tasnim News/AFP)

Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60 percent purity, close to the roughly 90 percent it would need for nuclear weapons. It has enough material at that level, if processed further, for nine nuclear bombs, according to a UN nuclear watchdog yardstick.

Israel’s strikes overnight on Thursday targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, military commanders and nuclear scientists. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was the start of a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.

At least 20 senior commanders were killed, two regional sources said. The armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guards Chief Hossein Salami, and the head of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, were among them.

People chant slogans during a protest against Israel’s wave of strikes on Iran in Enghelab (Revolution) Square in central Tehran on June 13, 2025. ( AFP)

“It’s a big attack: big names, big leaders, big damage to the Iranian military leadership and its ballistic missiles. It’s unprecedented,” said Carnegie's Hage Ali.

Sima Shine, a former chief Mossad analyst and now a researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said Israel would probably not be able to take out Iran’s nuclear project completely without US help.

“Therefore, if the US will not be part of the war, I assume that some parts of (Iran’s) nuclear project will remain,” she said on Friday.

Above, a handout satellite image released by Planet Labs on June 13, 2025, shows the Natanz nuclear facilities (Shahid Ahmadi Roshan Nuclear Facilities) near Ahmadabad, Iran on May 20, 2025. (Planet Labs/AFP)

Friday’s strikes have not only inflicted strategic damage but have also shaken Iran’s leadership to the core, according to a senior regional official close to the Iranian establishment.

Defiance has transformed into concern and uncertainty within the ruling elite and, behind closed doors, anxiety is mounting, not just over the external threats but also their eroding grip on power at home, the official said.

“Panic has surged among the leadership,” the senior regional official said. “Beyond the threat of further attacks, a deeper fear looms large: domestic unrest.”

A moderate former Iranian official said the killing in 2020 of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the overseas arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, on the orders of President Donald Trump, started the rot.

Since then, the Islamic Republic has struggled to reassert its influence across the region and has never fully recovered. “This attack might be the beginning of the end,” he said.

If protests erupt, and the leadership responds with repression, it will only backfire, the former official said, noting that public anger has been simmering for years, fueled by sanctions, inflation and an unrelenting crackdown on dissent.

In his video address shortly after the attacks started, Netanyahu suggested he would like to see regime change in Iran and sent a message to Iranians.

“Our fight is not with you. Our fight is with the brutal dictatorship that has oppressed you for 46 years. I believe the day of your liberation is near,” he said.

The hope for regime change could explain why Israel went after so many senior military figures, throwing the Iranian security establishment into a state of confusion and chaos.

“These people were very vital, very knowledgeable, many years in their jobs, and they were a very important component of the stability of the regime, specifically the security stability of the regime,” said Shine.

Iranian state media reported that at least two nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, were killed in Israeli strikes in Tehran.

Iran’s most powerful proxy in the region, Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, is also in a weak position to respond.

In the days leading up to the strikes on Iran, security sources close to Hezbollah told Reuters the group would not join any retaliatory action by Iran out of fear such a response could unleash a new Israeli blitz on Lebanon.

Israel’s war last year against Hezbollah left the group badly weakened, with its leadership decimated, thousands of its fighters killed, and swathes of its strongholds in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburbs destroyed.

Analysts said Trump could leverage the fallout from the Israeli strikes to bring Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table – but this time more isolated, and more likely to offer deeper concessions.

“One thing is clear: the Iranian empire is in decline,” said regional expert Naoum. “Can they still set the terms of their decline? Not through military terms. There’s only one way to do that: through negotiations.”


Iran still undecided on joining US in nuclear talks

Iran still undecided on joining US in nuclear talks
Updated 14 June 2025
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Iran still undecided on joining US in nuclear talks

Iran still undecided on joining US in nuclear talks
  • "You cannot claim to negotiate and at the same time divide work by allowing the Zionist regime (Israel) to target Iran’s territory,” says Iran's foreign ministry spokesman

CAIRO/TEHRAN: Iran has yet to decide whether to join a sixth round of nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday, state media reported, as Israel and Iran traded fire for a second day.

“It is still unclear what decision we will make for Sunday,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said of the talks in Oman, quoted by the official IRNA news agency on Saturday.

Baghaei said on Friday the dialogue with the US over Tehran’s nuclear program is “meaningless” after Israel’s biggest-ever military strike against its longstanding enemy, accusing Washington of supporting the attack.

“The other side (the US) acted in a way that makes dialogue meaningless. You cannot claim to negotiate and at the same time divide work by allowing the Zionist regime (Israel) to target Iran’s territory,” the semi-official Tasnim news agency quoted Baghaei as saying.

He said Israel “succeeded in influencing” the diplomatic process and the Israeli attack would not have happened without Washington’s permission.

Iran earlier accused the US of being complicit in Israel’s attacks, but Washington denied the allegation and told Tehran at the United Nations Security Council that it would be “wise” to negotiate over its nuclear program.

The sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks was set to be held on Sunday in Muscat, but it was unclear whether it would go ahead after the Israeli strikes.

Iran denies that its uranium enrichment program is for anything other than civilian purposes, rejecting Israeli allegations that it is secretly developing nuclear weapons.

US President Donald Trump said that he and his team had known the Israeli attacks were coming but they still saw room for an accord.


UN chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ after Israel strikes Iran

UN chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ after Israel strikes Iran
Updated 14 June 2025
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UN chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ after Israel strikes Iran

UN chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ after Israel strikes Iran
  • Peace and diplomacy must prevail,” Antonio Guterres said on X after Israel’s “preemptive” strikes on Iran and Tehran’s counter-attack

UNITED NATIONS, United States: UN chief Antonio Guterres urged Israel and Iran to “show maximum restraint” after Israel’s wave of air strikes, the secretary-general’s spokesman said in a statement late Thursday.

While broadly condemning “any military escalation in the Middle East,” the statement by Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq noted Guterres was “particularly concerned” by Israel’s strikes on nuclear installations amid the ongoing US-Iran negotiations.

“The Secretary-General asks both sides to show maximum restraint, avoiding at all costs a descent into deeper conflict, a situation that the region can hardly afford,” it added.