Specter of instability haunts fragile neighbors of violence-torn Sudan

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In this image grab taken from handout video footage released by the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on April 23, 2023, fighters ride in the back of a technical vehicle in the East Nile district of greater Khartoum. (AFP)
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Updated 02 May 2023
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Specter of instability haunts fragile neighbors of violence-torn Sudan

  • High risk of crisis spilling over into highly unstable Chad and South Sudan and even beyond
  • What started as clashes between two Sudanese groups has begun to adversely impact the region

ROME: Now in its third week, the fighting that erupted on April 15 between Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces shows no signs of abating.

The violence, which has engulfed large swathes of the country, has Sudan’s neighbors worried that it will spill across borders, triggering off more violence and chaos in an already fragile region.

The point was underscored on Monday by the UN resident and humanitarian coordinator in Sudan, Abdou Dieng, who told a briefing of member states: “The regional spillover effect of the crisis is a serious concern.”

Sudan borders seven nations — Egypt, South Sudan, Chad, the Central African Republic, Libya, Ethiopia and Eritrea. “What happens in Sudan will not stay in Sudan,” Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group said on Twitter.

“None of Sudan’s neighbors can afford a collapsed state in Sudan or a major war that starts to spill out,” he told Arab News. “The risks that we see, if this drags on much longer, is the risk of internal fragmentation in a more complex conflict in Sudan that keeps growing. Unfortunately, we’re already starting to see that now, especially in Khartoum.”

 

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However, Boswell added, there is “this window where it’s mostly still a binary conflict between these two (Al-Burhan and Dagalo). But there’s also a window before we start to see, I think, serious external intervention. The longer it drags on, the more and more likely that is. Once that seal is broken, we’re probably only likely to see more external players get involved.”

Risk of a geopolitical spillover reflects Sudan’s geographic position at the intersection of the Horn of Africa, Indian Ocean, sub-Saharan Africa and the entire Arab world. Moreover, the Nile River as well as oil pipelines run through Sudan, a nation rich in minerals including gold, chromium, salt, gypsum and cement.

What started as clashes between two rival Sudanese groups has already begun to adversely impact the wider region.

 

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The UN has estimated that 100,000 people will flee the Sudan conflict toward Chad, which already hosts over half a million refugees. Tens of thousands of Sudanese nationals have already escaped the recent violence in their homeland, mostly to South Sudan and Chad.

“It’s a potentially catastrophic situation and we risk seeing Sudan become another failed state, because the fighting may not be contained between just these two factions,” Matt Bryden, director of the Nairobi-based Sahan Research, told Arab News. “There’s a risk of the conflict becoming more fragmented and more actors getting involved.”

While the refugee crisis in bordering nations is an immediate impact, Martin Plaut, senior research fellow at the London-based Institute of Commonwealth Studies, told Arab News that the “longer-term impacts are much more serious and could draw in all of the region, which is why everybody is working so incredibly hard to try and halt it.”

He added: “From the Arab League, the African Union, regional organizations, the Americans, the British and the Europeans, everybody is really, really struggling to get this under control.

“The problem is that it could split Sudan right down the middle.”




Sudanese refugees from the Tandelti area shelter under a tree in Koufroun, Chad, near Echbara, on April 30, 2023. (AFP)

Al-Burhan, a traditional Sudanese man from a small northern village who rose through the ranks of the army, looks north for support. Dagalo, on the other hand, was born in Darfur and is a member of the Rizigat Arab tribe in the western province who has risen through the ranks to become one of the most powerful and richest men in Sudan.

“Dagalo likes to see himself as representing the periphery and not the Nilotic population, but he was someone who was central to the creation of the Janjaweed in the Darfur conflict,” Plaut said, referencing the militia known locally as “devils on horseback” who were accused of a litany of war crimes during the war in Darfur.

Though Dagalo is hated by many in Sudan, Plaut says he has many international powerful allies that provide him weapons in exchange for Sudanese gold.

Having said that, Plaut believes the conflict is an African and an Arab issue to resolve. “It is not an international issue except for the international community if they get their troops in and their personnel and citizens out,” he said.




Evacuees stand on a ferry as it transports some 1900 people across the Red Sea from Port Sudan to the Saudi King Faisal navy base in Jeddah, on April 29, 2023, during mass evacuations from Sudan. (AFP)

The government of South Sudan is one neighbor that has already expressed deep concern over the fighting, which they fear could leak over the border and spoil the country’s fragile peace process.

The war-weary country, one of the world’s poorest, is not equipped to handle any more Sudanese refugees. Around 12 million people live in South Sudan, of which 2.3 million are internally displaced. Three-quarters of the population rely on humanitarian assistance, according to the UNHCR.

As Robert Bociaga wrote in a recent report in Arab News: “Sudan exports crude oil produced by South Sudan. Any disruption to this trade arrangement could lead to economic instability for the young republic, which has already suffered the knock-on effects of recent tribal uprisings in eastern Sudan.”

One direct result of the conflict is the price of Sudan’s oil exports, which fell on Friday from $100 per barrel to $70.

FASTFACTS

  • 5,197 People evacuated by Saudi ships from Port Sudan as of Sunday.
  • 800k + People who may have fled Sudan to escape fighting between military factions.
  • 70% Health facilities in Khartoum forced to close as a result of the fighting.

Ethiopia, still recovering from the humanitarian crisis of the war in Tigray, shares a long border with Sudan. As of April 23, civilians from 23 nations have fled strife-torn Sudan to Ethiopia, according to the country’s Amahara Regionals Communications office.

“There’s no indication that Ethiopia or Eritrea is supporting either side, but they will be alarmed by the involvement of other actors,” Aaron Maasho, an Ethiopian Horn of Africa expert, told Arab News. “Ethiopia, which still has yet to resolve its issues, has publicly called on both parties to the conflict in Sudan to launch a dialogue to resolve things peacefully.”




Sudanese migrants carrying their luggage stand in line at the Mitiga airport in the Libyan capital Tripoli, before flying back to their country voluntarily, on December 15, 2021. (AFP)

A resolution of the crisis in Libya, to Sudan’s northeast, is likely to be further delayed by events in Sudan, with the added possibility of greater political divisions and security risks. The country still relies on Sudan for commercial trade and to facilitate the return of Sudanese mercenaries from Libyan territory.

According to UN estimates, the result of a peaceful transition and reconstruction in Libya has the potential to enhance economic performance in Sudan by $22.7 billion over the course of 2021 to 2025. But now the Sudan conflict is leading to increased border insecurity in southern Libya, particularly owing to the cross-border movements of displaced citizens and fighters.

Egypt, a country suffering from inflation and a debt crisis, also has a history of conflict over sharing water with Sudan, as both rely on the Nile River which flows down from Ethiopia.




Refugees cross into Egypt through the Argeen land port with Sudan on April 27, 2023. (AFP)

Closer to home, Darfur, in western Sudan, faces renewed threat of destabilization. Boswell worries that the country’s deepening political divides could lead to fresh tribal conflicts there.

“In some ways this is a conflict that started in Darfur and is now in Khartoum,” he told Arab News. “However, Darfur is never a two-sided conflict; you have many armed groups in Darfur. As we have already seen, what happens in Darfur doesn’t stay in Darfur because the countries bordering Darfur have many ethnic links and are not able to stop cross-border flows.”

He continued: “While there has been a lot of focus on Khartoum, the conflict is already happening in Darfur and it’s easy to imagine the scenarios where Darfur ends up being the theater where this drags on the longest.”

 

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In addition to sowing chaos and sparking a humanitarian crisis in an already volatile region, the fighting in Sudan is also wreaking economic havoc on East and Central Africa and beyond.

According to Moody’s, if the clashes lead to a prolonged civil war in Sudan, a spillover into neighboring countries would weaken the region’s security environment, triggering asset quality concerns for multilateral development banks loans in South Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia and Egypt.

The only hope for an end to the Sudanese nightmare is a ceasefire, said Boswell.

As of now, Washington and Riyadh are both pushing for a ceasefire. But as large parts of Sudan continue to be wracked by violence and lawlessness, analysts and residents alike fear the worst for the wider region, where “conflicts have ravaged daily life.”

 


Two held in Iran after deadly port explosion: state TV

Updated 9 sec ago
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Two held in Iran after deadly port explosion: state TV

TEHRAN: Iranian authorities arrested two people including a government official in connection with a deadly explosion last month at the country’s main commercial port, state television reported on Sunday.
The April 26 blast at a dock in the southern port of Shahid Rajaee killed at least 57 people and injured more than 1,000, officials said, revising down an earlier death toll.
The judiciary on Sunday said the toll had been revised because “it was determined that some of the bodies considered separate were in fact one body,” adding that it could still change.
At the time of the blast, Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni blamed “shortcomings, including noncompliance with safety precautions and negligence.”
Shahid Rajaee is near Iran’s coastal city of Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil output passes.
“A government manager and another from the private sector have been arrested,” state television said on Sunday, citing a report from the investigating committee.
The committee announced on Monday that “false declarations (of goods) were made in some cases.”
It said on Sunday that “suspects have been identified and the summoning process is underway,” without elaborating.
The New York Times has quoted a person with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters, as saying that what exploded was sodium perchlorate — a major ingredient in solid fuel for missiles.
Iran’s defense ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik later told state television that “there has been no imported or exported cargo for military fuel or military use in the area.”

Palestinian detainee Najem dies in Israeli custody after medical negligence

Updated 39 min 44 sec ago
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Palestinian detainee Najem dies in Israeli custody after medical negligence

  • Mohyee al-Din Fahmi Najem is the 66th Palestinian prisoner since October 2023 to die in an Israeli prison
  • During a prison visit in March, Najem was unable to walk without assistance

LONDON: A Palestinian prisoner died on Sunday at Israel’s Soroka Medical Center after spending more than a year and a half in indefinite administrative detention, the Wafa news agency reported.

Mohyee al-Din Fahmi Najem, 60, was detained on Aug. 8, 2023 under administrative detention, a practice that allows Israeli authorities to hold individuals in prison without trial for six months, subject to indefinite renewals.

The Palestinian Commission of Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs, and the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society, said Najem died after suffering from medical neglect in Israeli prisons.

The Palestinian Authority’s affiliated groups said that Najem “suffered from chronic illnesses and was denied proper medical care during his incarceration.”

Najem was a father of six from Jenin town, in the northern occupied West Bank, who has spent 19 years in Israeli prisons because of his political activism. During a March prison visit, he was unable to walk without assistance, according to the commission and the Prisoners’ Society. They accused Israeli authorities of “compound crimes” during Najem’s prolonged detention, and medical negligence.

He was previously held in the notorious Negev Prison, known for its outbreaks of scabies last November and poor hygiene and medical infrastructure.

Najem is the 66th Palestinian prisoner to die in an Israeli prison since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023. Among those who died, 40 were from the Gaza Strip.

Since Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories in 1967, 303 Palestinian prisoners have died in Israeli custody, with 75 of those bodies still being withheld by Israel.


UAE president, Qatar emir review regional developments in Abu Dhabi

Updated 04 May 2025
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UAE president, Qatar emir review regional developments in Abu Dhabi

  • Leaders discussed efforts to address the latest developments in the Middle East

LONDON: The president of the UAE and the emir of Qatar discussed bilateral ties during a meeting at Qasr Al-Shati in Abu Dhabi on Sunday.

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani discussed regional and international issues of mutual interest, focusing particularly on the latest developments in the Middle East and sharing insights on efforts to address them.

The leaders explored ways to boost cooperation for the benefit and prosperity of both nations, the Emirates News Agency reported.

Several senior officials and ministers attended the meeting, including Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi and national security adviser, and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani.


Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 16, including 3 children

Updated 04 May 2025
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Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 16, including 3 children

  • Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a two-month truce in its war against Hamas

GAZA: Gaza’s civil defense agency on Sunday said Israeli strikes on the Palestinian territory killed 16 people, including at least three children.

Six people were killed in overnight air strikes in Khan Yunis governorate, in the south of the Gaza Strip, civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal said. They included two boys aged five and two, in an apartment in Al-Mawasi.

The civil defense later said 10 more people were killed in a strike on a tent also in Al-Mawasi, among them a child and seven women.

The Israeli military did not immediately respond for comment when contact by AFP. A spokesperson said they were gathering details.

A military statement issued in the morning said the army had “struck more than 100 terrorist targets throughout the Gaza Strip” during the past two days.

It said soldiers found “weapons caches” and killed “a number of terrorists” in the south.

Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a two-month truce in its war against Hamas, which was triggered by the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack.

The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza on Sunday said at least 2,436 people have been killed since Israel resumed its campaign in Gaza, bringing the war’s overall death toll to 52,535.

Israel halted aid deliveries to Gaza, saying Hamas had diverted supplies. Israel says the blockade is meant to pressure the militants into releasing hostages held in the Palestinian territory.

UN agencies have urged Israel to lift restrictions, saying Gazans have been experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe and warning of famine.


Lebanon holds local polls in first vote since Israel-Hezbollah war

Updated 04 May 2025
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Lebanon holds local polls in first vote since Israel-Hezbollah war

BEIRUT: Lebanon on Sunday began the first stage of long-delayed municipal elections, the first vote since a devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah and after a new national government was formed.
Polls opened at 7:00 am (0400 GMT) for voters in the Mount Lebanon district, a heavily populated area with mixed political and religious affiliations that includes Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold that was heavily damaged by Israeli strikes.
“We have come to exercise our right and have our voices heard,” said Hashem Shamas, 39, a Hezbollah supporter, after voting in south Beirut’s Shiyah neighborhood.
According to the interior ministry, 9,321 candidates including 1,179 women are running in the Mount Lebanon district.
Lebanon is supposed to hold municipal elections every six years, but cash-strapped authorities last held a local ballot in 2016.
President Joseph Aoun emphasized the vote’s importance to “give confidence to the people and internationally that Lebanon is rebuilding its institutions and is back on the right track.”
Aoun was elected in January and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam formed a government the following month, ending a more than two-year vacuum as Lebanon’s balance of power shifted following the Israel-Hezbollah war.
The new authorities have promised reforms in order to gain the trust of the international community, as well as unlock billions in bail-out funds amid a five-year economic crisis. They have also vowed a state monopoly on bearing arms.
Hezbollah was left badly weakened in more than a year of hostilities with Israel, with a slew of commanders including the group’s longtime chief, Hassan Nasrallah, killed and its strongholds pummelled in the south and east and in south Beirut.
Israel has continued to strike targets in Lebanon despite a ceasefire and still has troops in five areas it considers “strategic.”
In April 2024, the municipal polls were postponed amid the hostilities, which escalated in September into a major Israeli bombing campaign and ground incursion before the ceasefire about two months later.
Aoun urged voters not to let sectarian, “partisan or financial factors” impact their vote.
Religious and political affiliations are usually key electoral considerations in multi-confessional Lebanon, where power is shared along sectarian lines.
Municipal ballots however provide a greater margin for local community dynamics to play a role.
Polls are set to close at 7:00 p.m. on Sunday.
Areas of northern Lebanon will vote on May 11, with Beirut and the country’s eastern Bekaa Valley area set to go to the polls on May 18, while voters in the heavily damaged south will cast ballots on May 24.