Collapse of Pakistan’s opposition alliance unlikely to end government’s woes
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It may not yet be the demise of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) but the fragmentation process of the opposition alliance is very much in evidence. The differences between the two major coalition partners, PPP and PML-N, appear to be unbridgeable. It may be good news for Prime Minister Imran Khan but the challenges for his government breaking under the burden of its own policy failures and fissure within are daunting.
Since its formation some six months ago, the PDM has remained divided over its narrative. It has been an alignment of expediency from the outset. Although it was able to shake a rudderless PTI government with some impressive rallies across the country, differences over strategy and objectives blunted its impact.
While PML-N sought to bring down the entire system, the PPP favored a more nuanced approach in order to not derail the political process.
Being the only party in the alliance running a provincial government, it is not in the interests of the PPP to pull out of the system. Some other factors such as its failure to build enough public pressure to undermine the authority of the PTI government has caused a widening of the cleavage.
Another contentious issue dividing the PDM was over its approach towards the security establishment. While the PPP favored a non- confrontationist approach, the PML-N believed otherwise.
There has been a marked escalation in Nawaz Sharif’s and his daughter Maryam Nawaz’s attacks on the military leadership. In his recent address to the party leadership council, the former prime minister warned the generals of reprisal, and accused them of manipulating the recent Senate chairman election.
There is certainly no indication of the establishment pulling back from its support for Khan’s government, but its involvement in electoral manipulation remains a contentious matter. The Senate elections produced a predictable outcome with the only exception that of a surprise victory for the PDM candidate on the capital seat.
Losing the Senate election for chairman, despite a clear majority in the house, came as a major setback for the PDM and once again tilted the balance in favor of the PTI-led coalition. That also brought to the fore the divide between the PML-N and PPP over the PDM’s strategy to fight the government.
The divide brought out the old demons of distrust between the two erstwhile political rivals, and it has virtually ended the brief period of bonhomie between them. This marked the parting of their ways.
Zahid Hussain
The lid was blown off during the last PDM leadership meeting. The PML-N along with some other parties, wanted to go for the jugular by resigning from the assemblies followed by the storming of the capital. For the PPP, resignation from the assemblies would create an uncertain political situation that could lead to extra-constitutional intervention.
The divide brought out the old demons of distrust between the two erstwhile political rivals, and it has virtually ended the brief period of bonhomie between them. This marked the parting of their ways.
But the break up of the opposition alliance is unlikely to end the predicament of the Khan government half way through its five-year term. It faces growing criticism over governance deficit. Unbridled inflation, slow economic growth and worsening unemployment remains a major problem for an administration with a razor thin majority.
The dissent within the ruling coalition has raised questions about the tenability of the Khan government. The unceremonious exit of finance minister Hafeez Sheikh last month in the middle of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has added to the chaos that has become the hallmark of the PTI administration.
A government spokesman said the prime minister had decided to bring in a new finance team to deal with spiralling inflation. According to him, the new finance minister will take forward the prime minister’s ‘pro-poor vision.’
Not long ago, the government was gloating over the ‘success’ of its economic policies. The nation was frequently reminded that the economy had come out of the mess created by previous governments and was taking off, though the situation on the ground remained precarious.
Some reports suggest it was differences over the economic policy framework with the prime minister that cost Sheikh his job. Many economists are critical of the prime minister’s so called economic vision and blame it for the slowdown of the economy and the failure to contain inflation.
Some of the measures taken by the government may have helped the marginal increase in the country’s exports and improved the current account situation, but overall the economic outlook remains dismal.
Now the country has a third finance minister who has been given the arduous task of fixing a fledgling economy. It’s not the opposition alliance but it’s own performance that presents the biggest challenge to the government. Its increasing reliance on the military cannot salvage the situation.
– Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
