China likely ‘to benefit from $10 trillion Mideast sovereign funds boost’

Nicolas Aguzin, CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd.
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Updated 13 June 2023
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China likely ‘to benefit from $10 trillion Mideast sovereign funds boost’

RIYADH: China is likely to benefit from the Middle East’s sovereign funds, as their investment capital is forecast to reach $10 trillion by 2030, according to the CEO of the Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and Clearing Ltd.

Speaking on the second day of the 10th Arab-China Business Conference, Nicolas Aguzin, predicted regional sovereign funds’ resources to swell by 150 percent, up from the current $4trillion.

“As investment capital goes to $10 trillion, we think that more than somewhere between 10 and 20 percent will be invested in China. That’s between $1 trillion and $2 trillion that will be reallocated in investments in that part of the world which is, like, massive,” the CEO said.

He also reflected current and future collaborations involving the HKEX and Saudi Arabia, such as the recent memorandum of understanding with the Kingdom’s stock exchange, also known as Tadawul.

“In Saudi Arabia, we signed an MoU with Tadawul whereby we’re looking at areas that range from fintech to cross listings to ESG, to see ways in which we could collaborate,” Aguzin said.

The CEO also highlighted the attractiveness of the Hong Kong market.

“The key attractiveness that I would say an international company has in terms of leveraging the opportunities that are provided by the Hong Kong market is that it’s the only market in the world where you can get the best investors from the global international markets and the best investment based on the domestic Chinese capital markets, including retail and institutional investors,” he clarified.

Investment opportunities, economic growth, and closer trade relations are on the agenda at the 10th Arab-China Business Conference.  

The two-day event seeks to explore synergies in technology, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, agriculture, real estate, and strategic minerals.  

The conference has been organized by the Saudi Ministry of Investment in partnership with the Chinese Council for the Promotion of International Trade and a host of other regional associations.

The  event saw a series of plenaries, workshops, special meetings, and side events dedicated to topics such as environmental, social and governance, and supply chain resilience. It attracted more than 3,500 business leaders, innovators, and policymakers from 26 countries.


Qatar, Kuwait, UAE see steady June PMI growth; Lebanon slows decline

Updated 6 sec ago
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Qatar, Kuwait, UAE see steady June PMI growth; Lebanon slows decline

RIYADH: Business activity across Middle Eastern economies showed mixed trends in June, with Qatar leading growth, Kuwait and the UAE holding steady, and Lebanon remaining in contraction despite easing declines, market trackers showed. 

According to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index data from S&P Global, Kuwait’s PMI fell to 53.1 in June from 53.9 in May — a three-month low but still well above the neutral 50 mark, signaling a solid improvement in business conditions in the country’s non-oil private sector. 

In the UAE, the PMI ticked up to 53.5 in June from 53.3 in May, while Qatar’s figure for the non-energy private sector rose to 52 in June from 50.8 in May,

Lebanon’s PMI edged up to 49.2 in June from 48.9, remaining below the 50 threshold for a fourth consecutive month.

The broadly positive figures are in line with World Bank forecasts that Gulf Cooperation Council economic growth will accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, driven by the easing of OPEC+ oil cuts and strong non-oil sector expansion. 

Kuwait growing despite slowdown

Kuwait’s PMI rating, which still shows growth despite a deceleration, comes amid expectations of an economic rebound, with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank projecting Kuwait’s real gross domestic product growth at 1.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, for 2025. 

Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Sustained rises in workloads and increasing confidence for the year ahead have been good news for the Kuwaiti labor market, with companies looking to take on additional staff to keep on top of orders. 

That said, he noted that even a record increase in employment in June failed to prevent a further buildup of outstanding business, suggesting the need for additional capacity improvements in the months ahead. 

“All in all, the first half of 2025 has been a successful one for Kuwait’s non-oil private sector, and firms go into the second half of the year in good shape to continue expanding,” Harker added. 

UAE PMI edges higher 

Despite the UAE’s PMI figure inching up in June to 53.5 from 53.3 in the previous month, new business growth in the country slowed due to geopolitical tensions, faster output and stable inventories kept overall activity in expansion territory, according to newly released data from S&P Global.

The rise was attributed to firms ramping up efforts to clear backlogs, which boosted output growth and stabilized stock levels after May’s record decline. 

Non-oil private sector firms in the country experienced softer demand toward the end of the second quarter, as heightened regional tensions led to more cautious client spending. 

Geopolitical uncertainty also disrupted supply chains, though input cost pressures eased. 

“The UAE non-oil sector showed signs of a minor setback in June due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. The impact was primarily felt on the demand side, as some businesses reported a slowdown in orders driven by heightened tensions,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

He explained that this led to a further slowdown in overall new business growth, which fell to its lowest level in almost four years. 

“However, with firms instead able to turn their attention to addressing the substantial level of outstanding work — evidenced since early 2024 — the impact on overall business conditions was negligible,” Owen said. 

The senior economist noted that input costs rose at their slowest pace in nearly two years, allowing businesses to offer price reductions to customers. With consumer inflation remaining subdued, the data suggests a recovery in sales growth is likely in the near future — provided regional tensions ease, he explained. 

Qatar extends expansion 

Qatar’s PMI rise of 1.2 points marked the strongest growth since March and the 18th consecutive month of expansion. The uptick was driven by higher output and employment, though declines in new orders, input stocks, and faster supplier delivery times slightly offset the overall improvement. The reading of 52 remained just below the long-term average of 52.2. 

The latest data signaled a stronger overall improvement in business conditions in Qatar’s non-energy sector at the halfway point of 2025, supported by a sharp rise in employment and renewed growth in activity. 

Employment rose at one of the fastest rates since the survey began eight years ago, partly reflecting efforts to manage a quicker buildup of backlogged work. Output expanded despite a slight decline in new business. 

“Growth remained modest overall, however, as the PMI has not beaten its long-run average of 52.2 so far this year. This can mainly be attributed to intermittent and muted growth of output and new orders, with the non-energy sector not registering concurrent growth in these two indicators since December 2024,” said Trevor Balchin, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

“The overall strength of the headline PMI figure continues to be underpinned by rising employment, with companies seemingly undeterred by a lack of sustained demand growth. Ongoing hiring was corroborated by another rise in outstanding business in June, and at the fastest rate since last October,” he added. 

Balchin also noted that wage growth accelerated in June, approaching the record set in January. 

However, overall inflation remained moderate, as purchase price inflation eased to its lowest level in nearly a year, allowing companies to once again reduce the prices of their goods and services. 

Lebanon contracts 

Lebanon’s PMI signaled a slower pace of decline in private sector conditions as employment and inventory levels stabilized. 

S&P data showed that Lebanon’s private sector remained in contraction at the end of the second quarter, though the pace of decline eased compared to May. Output fell more moderately despite weaker sales, while employment and inventory levels held steady. However, heightened regional tensions weighed on business confidence and pushed up purchasing costs. 

“The escalation of the war between Iran and Israel resulted in weaker customer sales and client cancelations, leading to a drop in business activity,” said Fadi Osseiran, general manager of BLOMInvest BANK. 

He noted that purchase prices incurred by companies had surged at the fastest pace in eight months, with these increases being passed on to clients. “What is unfortunate is the sharp drop in the Future Output Index, revealing pessimism at private sector companies regarding future outlook, as 53 percent of respondents expect activity levels to diminish in the upcoming 12 months,” Osseiran said. 


Saudi Arabia’s POS spending climbs 24.4% to $3.6bn in final week of June

Updated 57 min 1 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia’s POS spending climbs 24.4% to $3.6bn in final week of June

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s point-of-sale transactions climbed to SR13.6 billion ($3.6 billion) in the week ending June 28, marking a 24.4 percent rise compared to the previous seven-day period, according to the latest official figures.

The point-of-sale transactions bulletin issued by the Saudi Central Bank showed that the number of transactions also rose by 8.6 percent to reach 219.9 million.

Spending on recreation and culture posted the highest weekly increase, surging 49.3 percent to reach SR294.7 million. The number of transactions in this category rose slightly to 2.26 million.

Clothing and footwear followed with a 44.2 percent surge in spending, totaling SR830.9 million. The number of transactions in this section rose 34.5 percent to 6.2 million.

Telecommunications came third, with a 38.7 percent increase in value to SR123.9 million and a rise in transactions to just over 2 million.

Spending on public utilities increased by 28.8 percent, reaching SR52.3 million through 690,000 transactions.

Gas stations registered SR963.5 million in transactions, up 18.4 percent from the prior week. Transaction volume climbed to 17.2 million.

Expenditures in the health sector reached SR840 million, an increase of 17.9 percent, while spending on transportation rose 18.7 percent to SR746 million. The number of transportation transactions hit 2.9 million.

Jewelry sales rose by 34.7 percent to reach SR352.7 million from 280,000 sales.

Education services recorded sales of SR 212.1 million, up 9.7 percent, with the number of transactions in the sector reached 118,000.

Sales at hotels reached SR212.5 million, a 28.3 percent weekly increase, while transactions advanced 26.4 percent to 680,000.

Spending on construction and building materials totaled SR328 million, representing a 7.9 percent boost from the previous week. The number of transactions stood at 1.7 million.

Among cities, Hail recorded the highest increase in POS transaction value, rising 41.5 percent to SR226.2 million across 4 million transactions.

Abha followed with a 37.6 percent rise in spending, totaling SR195.3 million from 3.48 million transactions.

Additional cities across the Kingdom contributed SR3.93 billion in POS sales, reflecting a 32.6 percent increase from the previous week.

Madinah posted SR516 million in transactions, up 27.7 percent, while Jeddah recorded SR1.93 billion, marking a 20.4 percent increase.

Makkah followed with SR471.7 million, up 20.2 percent from the prior week.

Riyadh remained the highest in overall value with SR4.68 billion in sales, a 19.7 percent weekly rise, and 70.3 million transactions.

Dammam registered SR673.3 million, increasing 18.1 percent.

Khobar and Buraidah posted SR385.7 million and SR327.7 million, respectively, while Tabuk reported SR278.5 million in POS spending.


Saudi PMI rises to 57.2 in June as non-oil sector hits 3-month high

Updated 03 July 2025
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Saudi PMI rises to 57.2 in June as non-oil sector hits 3-month high

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector expanded at its fastest pace in three months in June, supported by rising domestic demand, accelerated hiring, and a pickup in purchasing activity, a survey showed. 

According to Riyad Bank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global, the headline PMI rose to 57.2, up from the 55.8 figure recorded in May, signaling a strong improvement in business conditions and surpassing the long-run average of 56.9.

The index remains well above the neutral 50 mark, indicating sustained expansion across the Kingdom’s non-oil economy. 

The robust growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil business activity aligns with the broader goals of the Vision 2030 program, which seeks to diversify the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil revenues. 

Saudi Arabia’s PMI for June outpaced that of its regional peers, with the UAE and Kuwait recording readings of 53.5 and 53.1, respectively. 

Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, said: “The latest reading reflects a strong improvement in overall business conditions, supported by higher output levels, rising demand, and an active labor market.”  

He added: “Firms largely linked the pickup in activity to improving sales, new project starts, and better demand conditions, although the pace of output growth was softer compared to previous highs.” 

In May, a report released by Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics revealed that the Kingdom’s gross domestic product grew 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by strong non-oil activity. 

Commenting on the GDP figures at the time, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim, who also chairs GASTAT’s board, noted that the contribution of non-oil activities to the Kingdom’s economic output reached 53.2 percent — an increase of 5.7 percent from previous estimates. 

The minister also added that the Kingdom’s economic outlook remains positive, supported by structural reforms and high-quality, state-led projects across various sectors. 

In its latest PMI report, S&P Global stated that non-oil firms in the Kingdom reported a further rise in new orders in June, with the rate of growth continuing to accelerate from its recent low in April. 

Companies that participated in the survey noted that the acquisition of new clients and the benefits of enhanced marketing had improved demand growth across non-oil sectors. 

“New orders continued to lead the expansion, registering the fastest growth in four months and surpassing the long-run trend. Businesses credited this increase to stronger demand, effective marketing strategies, and improved client acquisition,” added Al-Ghaith. 

According to the report, non-oil private companies in Saudi Arabia hired staff at the fastest rate since May 2011, as firms expanded teams to manage increased workloads. 

This historically strong increase continued a robust period of job creation seen since the start of 2025, with companies citing high demand for skilled staff as a driving force behind intensified recruitment efforts and increased salary offers. 

Consequently, overall staff costs rose at the fastest pace since the survey began in 2009. 

Purchasing activity accelerated to a two-year high as firms responded to rising input needs, with nearly 40 percent of respondents increasing their purchases. 

Input prices also rose sharply, aligning with the trend observed in the second quarter of the year. This compelled companies to pass on higher costs to customers, although some businesses opted to reduce prices as part of competitive pricing strategies. 

Despite price pressures, non-oil firms in Saudi Arabia remained confident of an uplift in activity over the next 12 months, with sentiment ticking up to a two-year high. 

S&P Global stated that this optimism for future growth was largely driven by resilient domestic economic conditions, robust demand, and improving sales pipelines. 

“On the future outlook, sentiment among non-oil businesses remains highly positive. Confidence about future activity climbed to a two-year peak, supported by healthy order pipelines and stronger domestic economic conditions. However, cost pressures became more pronounced in June,” said Al-Ghaith. 

He noted that staff costs had risen at a record pace as firms sought to retain talent, while purchase prices recorded their fastest increase since February, partly due to stronger demand and rising geopolitical risks.

“Despite these cost challenges, firms broadly raised their selling prices, reversing the declines seen in May and signalling an improved ability to pass on higher costs to customers,” said Al-Ghaith. 

The PMI survey data were collected from around 400 private sector companies across the manufacturing, construction, and wholesale sectors, as well as retail and services. 


Oil Updates — prices retreat as US tariff uncertainty looms, OPEC+ set to raise output

Updated 03 July 2025
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Oil Updates — prices retreat as US tariff uncertainty looms, OPEC+ set to raise output

SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell on Thursday after gaining 3 percent in the previous session as investors are wary higher US tariffs may be reinstated, which could cause lower fuel demand, and as major producers are expected to announce an output hike.

Brent crude futures fell 45 cents, or 0.65 percent, to $68.66 a barrel by 8:45 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude declined 44 cents, or 0.66 percent, to $67.01 a barrel.

Both contracts rose to their highest in one week on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, raising concerns the lingering dispute over the Middle East producer’s nuclear program may again devolve into armed conflict, and the US and Vietnam reached a preliminary trade deal.

Still, there is increasing uncertainty around US trade policy as the 90-day pause on the implementation of higher tariffs will end on July 9 without any new trade deals with several large trading partners such as the European Union and Japan.

Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+ will likely agreed to raise their output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) at their meeting this weekend.

With the uncertainty around both events, and the upcoming July Fourth Independence Day holiday in the US, “market participants will probably not want to carry too much risk into the long US weekend,” ING analysts said in a note on Thursday.

Adding to the negative sentiment, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday service activity in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in June as demand weakened and new export orders declined.

A surprise build in US crude inventories also highlighted demand concerns in the world’s biggest crude consumer.

The US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels.

Gasoline demand on a weekly basis dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, prompting concerns about consumption in the peak US summer driving season.

The market will be watching the release of the key US monthly employment report on Thursday to shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, analysts said.

Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand.

A private payrolls report on Wednesday showed a contraction for the first time in two years though analysts cautioned there is no correlation between it and the government data.


Global oil demand rose 1.5% in 2024 despite production dip: OPEC report

Updated 02 July 2025
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Global oil demand rose 1.5% in 2024 despite production dip: OPEC report

RIYADH: Global oil demand climbed by 1.49 million barrels per day, or 1.5 percent, year on year in 2024 to reach an average of 103.84 million bpd, according to newly released data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Demand rose across nearly all regions, with the strongest gains recorded in non-OECD Asia, particularly China and India, followed by the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and OECD Europe. Within OPEC member countries, oil demand rose by 0.12 million bpd, or 1.3 percent, year on year.

However, total world crude oil production declined for the first time since 2020, falling by 0.77 million bpd, or 1 percent, to average 72.58 million bpd in 2024. OPEC attributed the drop to lower output from both its members and non-OPEC producers participating in the Declaration of Cooperation.

OPEC nations cut production by 0.57 million bpd, or 2.1 percent, while non-OPEC DoC participants saw a steeper decline of 0.78 million bpd, or 5.2 percent. In contrast, crude production from countries not involved in the DoC rose by 0.58 million bpd, or 1.8 percent.

Refining capacity

Global refining capacity increased by 1.04 million bpd in 2024 to reach 103.80 million bpd. Most of this expansion came from the non-OECD region, notably China, India, and the Middle East.

For the first time since 2019, members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also saw a modest increase in refining capacity—up by 0.16 million bpd—driven by additions in the Americas, although partially offset by closures in Europe and Asia Pacific.

Refinery throughput also saw a modest rise, growing by 0.52 million bpd, or 0.6 percent, to 85.97 million bpd. This was largely due to increased run rates in OECD Americas and non-OECD regions, including the Middle East, Africa, India, and Other Asia.

Exports down, product shipments up

OPEC’s crude oil exports declined by 0.70 million bpd, or 3.5 percent, in 2024 to average 19.01 million bpd. Asia continued to be the primary destination for OPEC crude, receiving 13.67 million bpd, or 71.9 percent of total exports.

In contrast, exports of petroleum products from OPEC members rose by 0.29 million bpd, or 6.1 percent, reaching an average of 5.07 million bpd during the year.

Global proven crude oil reserves stood at 1,567 billion barrels at the end of 2024, marking a slight increase of 2 billion barrels, or 0.1 percent, from the previous year. Proven reserves in OPEC members remained unchanged at 1,241 billion barrels.