KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to hold its policy rate on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as many analysts shifted their previous view of a cut in the wake of Israel’s military strike on Iran, citing inflation risks from rising global commodity prices.

Israel said on Friday it targeted nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders in a “preemptive strike” to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.

Several brokerages had initially expected a cut but revised their forecasts after the Israeli strikes sparked fears of a broader conflict. The escalating hostilities triggered a sharp spike in oil prices — a worry for Pakistan given the broader impact on imported inflation from a potentially prolonged conflict and tightening of crude supplies.

Eleven of 14 respondents in a snap poll expected the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 12 percent. Two forecast a 100 basis-point cut and one predicted a 50 bps cut.

“There remains an upside risk of a rise in global commodity prices in light of geopolitical tensions which could mark a return to inflationary pressures,” said Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“The resultant higher import bill could also threaten external sector performance and bring pressure to the exchange rate.”

Inflation in the South Asian country has been declining for several months after it soared to around 40 percent in May 2023.

Last month, however, inflation picked up to 3.5 percent, above the finance ministry’s projection of up to 2 percent, partly due to the fading of the year-go base effects. The SBP expects average inflation between 5.5 percent and 7.5 percent for the fiscal year ending June.

The central bank paused its easing cycle in March after cumulative cuts of 1,000 basis points from a record high of 22 percent, and resumed it with a 100-basis-point reduction in May.

The policy meeting follows the release a tight annual budget, which saw Pakistan raise defense spending by 20 percent but overall expenditure was reduced by 7 percent, with GDP growth forecast at 4.2 percent.

Pakistan says its $350 billion economy has stabilized under a $7 billion IMF bailout that had helped it staved a default threat.

Some analysts are skeptical of the government’s ability to reach the growth target amid fiscal and external challenges.

Abdul Azeem, head of research at Al Habib Capital Markets, which forecast a 50-bp cut, said a lower rate could “support the GDP target of 4.2 percent and reduce the debt financing burden.”

Separately, long-dated dollar bonds for Israel, Egypt and Pakistan slipped on Friday, and Israel’s shekel tumbled following the Iran air strikes.

The shekel was 2 percent weaker by 0713 GMT standing at 3.63 to the dollar after touching 6.793 in overnight trade, its softest in seven weeks.

Israel’s bond maturing in 2140 shed 1.45 cents, to be bid at 65.61 cents on the dollar, while Egypt’s 2049 bond fell nearly 2 cents to be bid at 77.36. Pakistan’s 2031 bond fell just over 1 cent to be bid at 78.61 cents.

GENEVA: Nuclear-armed states spent more than $100 billion on their atomic arsenals last year, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons said Friday, lamenting the lack of democratic oversight of such spending.

ICAN said Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia and the United States together spent nearly $10 billion more than in 2023.

The United States spent $56.8 billion in 2024, followed by China at $12.5 billion and Britain at $10.4 billion, ICAN said in its flagship annual report.

Geneva-based ICAN won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize for its key role in drafting the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in 2021.

Some 69 countries have ratified it to date, four more have directly acceded to the treaty and another 25 have signed it, although none of the nuclear weapons states have come on board.

This year’s report looked at the costs incurred by the countries that host other states’ nuclear weapons.

It said such costs are largely unknown to citizens and legislators alike, thereby avoiding democratic scrutiny.

Although not officially confirmed, the report said Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkiye were hosting US nuclear weapons, citing experts.

Meanwhile Russia claims it has nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus, but some experts are unsure, it added.

The report said there was “little public information” about the costs associated with hosting US nuclear weapons in NATO European countries, citing the cost of facility security, nuclear-capable aircraft and preparation to use such weapons.

“Each NATO nuclear-sharing arrangement is governed by secret agreements,” the report said.

“It’s an affront to democracy that citizens and lawmakers are not allowed to know that nuclear weapons from other countries are based on their soil or how much of their taxes is being spent on them,” said the report’s co-author Alicia Sanders-Zakre.

Eight countries openly possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

Israel is widely assumed to have nuclear weapons, although it has never officially acknowledged this.

ICAN said the level of nuclear weapons spending in 2024 by these nine nations could have paid the UN budget almost 28 times over.

“The problem of nuclear weapons is one that can be solved, and doing so means understanding the vested interests fiercely defending the option for nine countries to indiscriminately murder civilians,” said ICAN’s program coordinator Susi Snyder.

The private sector earned at least $42.5 billion from their nuclear weapons contracts in 2024 alone, the report said.

There are at least $463 billion in ongoing nuclear weapons contracts, some of which do not expire for decades, and last year, at least $20 billion in new nuclear weapon contracts were awarded, it added.

“Many of the companies that benefited from this largesse invested heavily in lobbying governments, spending $128 million on those efforts in the United States and France, the two countries for which data is available,” ICAN said.

Standard nuclear doctrine — developed during the Cold War between superpowers the United States and the Soviet Union — is based on the assumption that such weapons will never have to be used because their impact is so devastating, and because nuclear retaliation would probably bring similar destruction on the original attacker.