Yen’s safety status at risk from corona rates collapse
Trend shift seen as good for Japan, headache for ECB
Updated 01 October 2020
Reuters
LONDON: The coronavirus epidemic — and the collapse in global interest rates it has sparked — may have blown a hole in conventional market wisdom that Japan’s yen strengthens during crises, triggering a warning bell for investors.
The yen has long been among the assets in greatest demand during disasters, when waves of overseas-held capital traditionally flee back to Japan, pushing the currency higher.
And for more than two decades, the trend has held.
Since 1997, a 5 percent fall in the US S&P500 index was accompanied 76 percent of the time by yen appreciation, according to a study by Nordea.
In mid-March, when the pandemic shock was at its height, that didn’t happen. US equities tumbled 9 percent and 15 percent in successive weeks, but the yen fell, too. In subsequent selloffs, including this month’s 4 percent equity slump, the currency has barely budged.
“The correlation with stocks didn’t hold during the corona crisis, which is a game changer as to how everyone looks at the yen,” Andreas Steno Larsen, chief global FX strategist at Nordea Markets, said.
The inverse 90-day yen-S&P500 correlation has since weakened to near decade-lows, he noted.
Between Jan. 20 and Sept. 9, the yen firmed 2 percent against a basket of major currencies, State Street calculates — a stark contrast with its 27 percent surge during the 2008 crisis.
Any lasting shift carries profound implications.
For Japan’s export-reliant economy, having frequently contended with sudden yen spikes, it is a positive. Investors though, face a hunt for other havens, should the yen lose that status.
It is a source of unease for investors such as Aaron Hurd, senior currency portfolio manager at State Street Global Markets, who uses the yen as a counterweight to risky assets in some investment models.
While Hurd doesn’t believe the yen has shed its safe-haven role, he said its gains during recent risk-off episodes had been “a bit disappointing” and needed monitoring.
The yen’s reputation stems from Japan’s stash of foreign assets, at $3.5 trillion the world’s largest international investment position. But it is also linked to a well-established market trend — the carry trade, where low-yield currencies are borrowed and then sold for higher-yield assets overseas.
That makes the yen prone to periodic spikes; when world markets go into reverse, so do carry trades, fueling a rush back into the funding currency to limit losses.
But yen-funded carry trades declined to around 8 trillion yen ($75.5 billion) in July, estimates Tohru Sasaki, JPMorgan’s head of Japan market research, down from a steady 10 trillion yen or so in recent years and a 2007 peak around 23 trillion yen.
What has changed is that this year’s worldwide collapse in short-term rates has eliminated the yield discount the yen has held since 1995, when Japanese benchmark rates fell to 0.5 percent.
Oliver Brennan, macro strategist at TS Lombard, said Swiss and euro zone interest rates were below Japan’s, so “if yen shorts from carry trades are going to be much smaller then the yen would no longer act as a risk-off currency.”
While Japanese three-month money market rates are at minus 0.1 percent, equivalent US rates have fallen to minus 0.2 percent versus 2 percent a year back and euro rates are at minus 0.52 percent, down from minus 0.4 percent.
It is still early days; after all, acute dollar shortages in March saw all other currencies being brushed aside. But guessing the identity of the next haven currency is already “the hottest topic in FX markets,” said Nordea’s Steno Larsen.
The shifting FX dynamics may test the European Central Bank.
With minus 0.5 percent interest rates, a balance of payments surplus, large capital markets and recent improvements in European cohesion, the euro might well be a candidate to replace the yen.
One central bank official recalled the euro’s sudden spike to 14-month highs in March, driven possibly by carry traders who had used it for funding before turmoil erupted.
“It may be due to the fact that running up to the COVID-19 stress there had been some shifts in the preferred funding currency for carry trades and the euro emerged as the currency you want to be short,” he said.
PIF assets rise 18% to $1.15tn as portfolio firms drive growth
Updated 4 sec ago
Nirmal Narayanan
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund boosted its total assets to SR4.32 trillion ($1.15 trillion) by the end of 2024, an 18 percent increase compared to the previous year, according to a disclosure filed with the London Stock Exchange.
The sovereign wealth fund reported gross revenues of SR413 billion for 2024, reflecting a 25 percent year-on-year rise. This growth was fueled by solid performance across several portfolio companies, including Savvy, Ma’aden, stc, Saudi National Bank, AviLease, and Gulf International Bank, as well as dividend income from Saudi Aramco.
PIF, often described as the financial engine of Saudi Arabia, plays a central role in advancing the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 goals to diversify the economy and reduce dependency on oil income.
“Long-term projects, that are beginning to mature, are also now generating significantly more revenue,” the disclosure document stated.
Despite global macroeconomic challenges such as high interest rates, inflationary pressure, and select asset impairments, the fund reported a net profit of SR26 billion in 2024.
The filing clarified that the impairments were “primarily related to changes to operational plans and increases in budgeted costs and represent less than a 2 percent reduction in total assets.”
PIF’s cash reserves held steady at SR316 billion, while loans and borrowings rose modestly to SR570 billion, reflecting continued diversification of its funding sources via international capital markets.
In 2024, the fund issued $2 billion in dollar-denominated sukuk and launched its first-ever sterling bond worth £650 million ($825.5 million). It also refinanced a $15 billion revolving credit facility, underlining market confidence in its creditworthiness and long-term investment outlook.
PIF’s debt ratio remained unchanged at 13 percent by the end of the year, the disclosure noted.
“Over 2024, PIF continued to advance its position as one of the world’s most impactful investors, while driving economic transformation in Saudi Arabia,” the document added.
It highlighted strategic progress in sectors such as leisure and tourism, industrial capabilities, capital markets, and the development of new industries.
Among standout performers, AviLease recorded a 350 percent surge in net profit to SR228 million and a 306 percent rise in revenue to SR2.1 billion. The aircraft leasing company expanded its fleet to 189 aircraft, comprising 163 owned, 22 managed, and four on order.
Meanwhile, Alat — another PIF-backed firm — invested SR401 million to establish an AI-driven robotics manufacturing facility in the Kingdom through a joint venture with SoftBank Robotics.
Riyadh leads Saudi Arabia’s commercial real estate growth with 23% rise in office rents
Average rents for office spaces in Riyadh saw an annual rise of 23%
Jeddah’s total office stock is expected to rise 1.8 million sq. meters by 2027
Updated 27 min 21 sec ago
Nirmal Narayanan
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s commercial real estate sector is witnessing exponential growth, with rents for Grade A office spaces in the Kingdom’s capital reaching SR2,700 ($719.95) per sq. meter by the end of March, an analysis showed.
In its latest report, global real estate consultancy Knight Frank said average rents for office spaces in Riyadh witnessed an annual rise of 23 percent by the end of the first quarter, driven by the success of government-led initiatives, including the ambitious regional headquarters program.
Strengthening the real estate sector is one of the key goals outlined in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 agenda, as the nation aims to position itself as a leading business and tourism destination by the end of the decade.
The Kingdom’s Real Estate General Authority expects the property market to reach $101.62 billion by 2029, with an anticipated compound annual growth rate of 8 percent from 2024.
Saudi Arabia’s regional headquarters program offers benefits to international firms, including a 30-year exemption from corporate income tax. File/SPA
“Saudi Arabia’s economic momentum continued to strengthen across key sectors in 2024, underpinned by rising private sector activity,” said Faisal Durrani, partner — head of research for the Middle East and North Africa at Knight Frank.
According to the report, the Kingdom’s Grade A office rents witnessed an occupancy level of 98 percent by the end of March.
Grade B rents grew by 24 percent year on year by the end of the first quarter, while the occupancy level of these spaces stood at 97 percent.
Grade A office spaces command higher rents than the area average, thanks to their prime locations, modern infrastructure, and newer construction.
In contrast, Grade B office spaces are more affordable, offering a lower-cost alternative to Grade A units.
Average daily rate in Madinah reached SR891 by the end of the first quarter. File/SPA
The report further said that around 600 companies have announced plans to establish their regional headquarters by the end of February, significantly boosting demand for prime office spaces.
Saudi Arabia’s regional headquarters program offers benefits to international firms, including a 30-year exemption from corporate income tax and withholding tax on headquarters activities, as well as discounts and support services.
“A total of 14,303 foreign business investment licenses were issued during 2024, a 67 percent increase from 2023, marking the highest annual figure on record and underscoring the sustained appeal of Saudi Arabia to global corporates and investors,” said Durrani.
The analysis added that Jeddah is also experiencing significant growth in the commercial real estate sector, with both Grade A and Grade B occupancies reaching 95 percent by the end of March.
Knight Frank said Grade A office rents in Jeddah reached SR1,280 per sq. meter, marking a 4 percent year-on-year growth, while Grade B office rents grew by 6 percent to reach SR845 per sq. meter.
Jeddah’s total office stock is expected to rise from 1.6 million sq. meters this year to 1.8 million sq. meters by 2027.
“As more companies expand their footprint across Saudi Arabia, Jeddah is attracting a growing number of regional and local firms. This rising interest is being supported by a healthy office development pipeline,” said James Hodgetts, partner — occupier strategy and solutions at Knight Frank.
The Saudi Real Estate General Authority expects the property market to reach $101.62 billion by 2029. Saudipedia
He added: “Upcoming projects include Jeddah Gate, which is expected to deliver 230,000 sq. meters between 2025 and 2028, and Jeddah Rose, a mixed-use development bringing 25,000 sq. meters of office space to the market by the end of 2025.”
In May, Jeddah Municipality announced 29 new investment opportunities spanning over 1.4 million sq. meters, targeting sectors including commercial, industrial, residential, and recreational.
The package includes 13 commercial opportunities featuring the development and operation of retail shops and commercial complexes across various districts.
In April, a separate report released by credit rating agency S&P Global said that the Kingdom’s retail real estate market is poised for growth in the near term, driven by population growth, expanding tourism, and economic diversification efforts under the Vision 2030 initiative.
S&P Global added that ongoing mega projects and the expansion of international brands are expected to propel further demand for retail space nationwide.
Hospitality overview
According to the study, the average daily rate in Saudi Arabia’s hospitality sector increased by 10.8 percent year on year by the end of March, while revenue per available room increased by 12.3 percent during the same period.
Growth of the Kingdom’s hospitality sector was largely driven by gains in the nation’s holy cities and Riyadh. File/SPA
The report said the growth of the Kingdom’s hospitality sector was largely driven by gains in the nation’s holy cities and Riyadh.
In the first quarter of 2025, ADR in Makkah rose by 28.9 percent year on year to SR859, while RevPAR was up by 35.7 percent to SR673.
Citing data from the Ministry of Hajj, Knight Frank said the surge in performance in Makkah reflected heightened demand linked to the rise in issued Umrah visas, which grew by 8.3 percent.
With more than 8,500 rooms under construction across 12 hotel developments, Makkah’s total inventory is set to increase from 63,428 to 71,643 rooms by 2027, the report added.
According to the analysis, ADR in Madinah reached SR891 by the end of the first quarter, representing an 11.8 percent year-on-year rise, while RevPAR rose by 15.1 percent to SR724.
Madinah currently has 20,673 hotel rooms, and an additional 2,100 keys are expected to be delivered by 2027. Major international operators continue to expand their presence, including Hilton and Marriott, with planned openings totaling over 6,000 rooms.
Rua Al-Madinah, a new giga-project situated east of the Prophet’s Mosque, is also poised to reshape the hospitality landscape, with over 47,000 planned hotel rooms.
“These latest figures point to resilient demand amid limited new supply and further highlight Madinah’s pricing strength,” said Amar Hussain, associate partner — research, Middle East at Knight Frank.
Jeddah is also experiencing significant growth in the commercial real estate sector. File/SPA
He added: “Pilgrim arrivals in the city are expected to reach 30 million by 2030, up from 17.3 million in 2025, reflecting the city’s growing role as a global hub for religious tourism.”
Data Centers
Knight Frank said Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as the Middle East’s leading data hub, with plans to grow its data center market from $1.78 billion in 2023 to $3.2 billion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10.1 percent.
The report noted that Saudi Arabia’s total IT capacity is expected to increase from around 250-300 megawatts in 2024 to more than 1,000-MW by 2030, driven by strategic government initiatives and substantial investment in digital infrastructure.
During the LEAP 2025 conference in February, Cathy Mauzaize, US-based software firm ServiceNow’s president for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said that the company is set to launch data centers in the Kingdom in 2026.
In the same month, Alfanar Global Development also announced a $1.4 billion investment plan to develop four world-class data centers in Saudi Arabia.
Knight Frank added that all tier-one US cloud providers, including Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Oracle, have either launched operations or announced further expansions in the Kingdom.
Amazon Web Services alone has committed $5.3 billion to scale up its cloud services across key cities.
Chinese firms such as Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Cloud have also established a local presence.
“Saudi Arabia is now the fastest growing market for data centers as the country continues its drive toward national digitalization,” said Stephen Beard, global head of data centers at Knight Frank.
He added: “The Kingdom’s development of data center infrastructure has been driven largely by adoption of public cloud and sustained public and private investment, transforming it into one of the top five global AI superpowers — evident in the recent launch of the $100 billion Transcendence AI Initiative.”
Saudi Arabia launched Project Transcendence in November, a $100 billion AI initiative aimed at building data centers, supporting startups, and developing infrastructure.
The initiative promises to bring together expertise, infrastructure, and innovation to position the Kingdom at the forefront of AI advancements.
Saudi banks post 5.4% loan growth in Q1 as lending accelerates
Alvarez & Marsal report says growth primarily driven by 7.5% increase in corporate lending
Loan-to-deposit ratio climbed to 106.1%, up from 104.7% in the previous quarter
Updated 16 min 5 sec ago
Nour El-Shaeri
RIYADH: Net loans and advances across the Saudi Arabia’s 10 largest listed banks rose by 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025, underscoring robust lending momentum at the start of the year.
According to Alvarez & Marsal’s latest KSA Banking Pulse report, this growth was primarily driven by a 7.5 percent increase in corporate lending, which continues to represent more than half of total gross loans.
The banking sector’s strong start reflects the wider strength of Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation efforts. Resilient credit growth signals sustained confidence among borrowers, particularly within the corporate sector, where demand for financing remains high amid ongoing large-scale infrastructure and development projects.
Meanwhile, the loan-to-deposit ratio climbed to 106.1 percent, up from 104.7 percent in the previous quarter, marking its highest level in recent times as credit expansion outpaced deposit growth.
Deposits rebounded by 4 percent after a decline in the prior quarter, supported by an 8.1 percent increase in time deposits.
The report also noted a 3.2 percent rise in operating income quarter on quarter, buoyed by a 9.6 percent surge in non-interest revenue from trade finance, foreign exchange, and investment gains.
Saudi Central Bank says Kingdom’s bank outstanding loan portfolio rose to SR3.13 trillion at the end of April. File/Asharq Al-Awsat
Sam Gidoomal, managing director and head of Middle East Financial Services at A&M, commented: “Saudi banks are entering a new strategic phase marked by stronger capital stewardship and a focus on unlocking liquidity through innovation — from potential mortgage securitization to targeted portfolio rebalancing.”
“This financial agility, combined with solid credit growth and cost control, positions the sector to actively support Vision 2030 priorities and channel capital toward infrastructure and giga-projects,” he added.
Cost discipline was evident across the sector, as operating expenses fell by 1.7 percent, contributing to a 149 basis point improvement in the cost-to-income ratio to 29.8 percent.
Aggregate net income increased 6.3 percent to SR22.2 billion ($5.9 billion), while return on equity strengthened by 44 basis points to 15.3 percent and return on assets edged up to 2.1 percent.
The strong quarterly performance detailed in A&M’s KSA Banking Pulse coincides with a broader surge in credit expansion across the sector.
According to data from the Saudi Central Bank, the Kingdom’s bank outstanding loan portfolio rose to SR3.13 trillion at the end of April, reflecting a 16.51 percent increase over the past year and marking the fastest annual growth rate since mid-2021.
The data shows that approximately SR443 billion in new credit was issued over the past 12 months, highlighting how the Kingdom’s project-driven growth model is reshaping bank balance sheets. Real estate developers remain the largest borrowers, accounting for 21.77 percent of total corporate credit.
The analysis further underscored that impairment charges declined by 15.8 percent, alleviating margin pressures associated with interest rate normalization.
Non-interest income rose to 23 percent of total operating income in the first quarter, signaling progress in revenue diversification.
The cost of risk improved to 0.27 percent, down from 0.34 percent in the prior quarter, while the capital adequacy ratio remained robust at 19.3 percent.
Yield on credit moderated to 8 percent in the first quarter, down from 8.4 percent in the prior period, while the cost of funds declined to 3.3 percent.
The net interest margin edged slightly lower to 2.87 percent from 2.94 percent, reflecting ongoing margin pressures amid interest rate normalization.
The coverage ratio decreased to 154.8 percent, and operating income relative to total assets remained stable at 3.6 percent. Return on risk-weighted assets was unchanged at 2.7 percent quarter on quarter.
Asad Ahmed, A&M managing director, Financial Services, added: “The uptick in lending and deposit mobilization reflects improving business confidence and a rebalancing of liquidity across the sector.”
“While margin pressures persist amid interest rate normalization, the decline in impairments and growth in fee-based income indicate that banks are diversifying their revenue streams and adapting effectively to the evolving environment,” he added.
Saudi Ministry of Energy, UN ink deal to propel regional emissions cooperation
Deal seeks to support MENA nations promote clean energy technologies
Updated 11 min 33 sec ago
Reem Walid
RIYADH: Middle East and North Africa countries are set to benefit from enhanced clean energy cooperation following an agreement between Saudi Arabia and the UN Environment Programme to accelerate emissions reduction.
The memorandum of understanding, signed in Riyadh by Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen, seeks to support MENA nations through the promotion of clean energy technologies, development of climate policy frameworks, and knowledge exchange to advance sustainable development, according to an official release.
The initiative aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Middle East Green Initiative, a regional platform launched to combat climate change and reduce emissions by over 60 percent from hydrocarbon production across participating countries. The initiative aims to cut 670 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 10 percent of global nationally determined contributions when first announced in 2021.
The ministry release stated: “The MoU reflects shared goals to enhance resource efficiency and lower carbon emissions through a comprehensive, balanced and sustainable approach.”
It added: “Areas of cooperation include policy research and recommendations, partnerships with international organizations, participation in climate and CCE-related events, exchange of knowledge and best practices, and the development of climate policy frameworks, supported by regional and global climate networking activities.”
Minister of Energy and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) sign an MoU to enhance regional collaboration on emissions reduction and promote climate action at the international level.
During the meeting, the two sides also held talks over advancing the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement.
“The two sides also discussed Saudi Arabia’s climate initiatives, including the Saudi Green Initiative and the Middle East Green Initiative, as well as other efforts undertaken by the Kingdom to expand renewable energy and reduce emissions through the Circular Carbon Economy framework,” the release added.
The MoU supports wider regional efforts to unlock renewable potential. MENA currently contributes less than 8 percent of global emissions from power and heat generation and is aiming to grow its clean energy capacity from under 50 gigawatts in 2022 to 200 GW by 2030, according to a June 2024 report by the International Energy Agency.
The IEA report also highlighted that the region — led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Algeria — is experiencing the fastest relative growth in renewable energy, scaling at 4.5 times its current base due to ambitious national targets.
The MENA region holds substantial hydrocarbon reserves alongside significant renewable energy potential, positioning it as a strategically important player in the global shift toward sustainable energy, according to the Natural Resource Governance Institute.
Governments across the region are adopting a dual-energy strategy — leveraging both fossil fuels and renewables — to reduce emissions while bolstering energy security.
Enhanced regional collaboration is critical to developing interconnected energy systems, boosting economic competitiveness, and securing reliable access to international energy markets.
Syria to expand stock trading week, launch market reforms to boost investment
Comprehensive development plan will be launched, says finance minister
Exchange will hold general assembly meeting in September to elect new board
Updated 7 min 27 sec ago
MOHAMMED AL-KINANI
JEDDAH: Syria is set to expand stock market trading to five days a week starting in July, part of a broader push to modernize its exchange and attract more investors, officials said.
Finance Minister Mohammad Yasser Barnieh said the Damascus Securities Exchange will implement a development plan aimed at boosting market activity and listings, according to the official Syrian Arab News Agency.
Barnieh announced in a LinkedIn post that the exchange will hold a general assembly meeting in September to elect a new board of directors.
The SANA report stated the minister explained that, in collaboration with the new board, the Capital Market Authority, and specialized experts, a comprehensive development plan will be launched.
The report added: “This plan aims to expand the supply side of securities and create favorable conditions for the listing of more family-owned businesses, private universities, and other companies and institutions.”
Finance Minister Mohammad Yasser Barnieh said the Damascus Securities Exchange will implement a development plan to boost market activity and listings. File/SANA
The minister also noted that the plan involves introducing new financial instruments and investment services aimed at stimulating market demand.
The exchange resumed trading on June 2 after a six-month suspension, with the reopening attended by government officials and key players in the financial sector.
In an earlier statement, Barnieh said the exchange would operate as a private company and become a key platform for Syria’s economic development with a focus on digital transformation.
The planned reforms come as the country looks to revive its battered economy and rebuild investor confidence after years of conflict, sanctions, and financial isolation.
The government is seeking to modernize capital markets as part of wider efforts to attract private investment and stimulate post-war reconstruction.
