China should allay concerns over its intentions
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US President Joe Biden on Tuesday criticized China for the failure of President Xi Jinping to show up at the COP26 climate change summit, amid wider international concern.
“China can do more, and it should,” said Tina Stege, climate ambassador for the Marshall Islands, which could soon be submerged by the rising Pacific Ocean. These comments were underscored by Alf Wills, a former chief climate negotiator for South Africa, who said that other developing nations were loath to publicly criticize Beijing on this issue, given that Chinese diplomats can be instrumental in delivering funding for them.
Nevertheless, it is the US that has been most forceful in its critique, with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan doubling down on the president’s comments by asserting that the Chinese are “significant outliers” among the countries that have made commitments in an attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as agreed in Paris in 2015. He asserted that Beijing had “an obligation to step up to greater ambition as we go forward,” and that China is “a big country with a lot of resources and a lot of capabilities” that is “perfectly capable of living up to (its) responsibilities.”
While Sullivan’s critique needs to be seen in the context of the current tensions in US-China relations, the fact that other countries share at least some of his sentiment risks exacerbating the soft power challenges that Beijing already faces. These have the potential to become a growing headache for the ruling Chinese Communist Party. China cares deeply about its international image and, according to David Shambaugh, a leading sinologist at George Washington University, the nation is expected to spend some $10 billion a year as part of its soft power campaign.
COP26 aside, a significant driver of China’s soft power problems is, ironically, its success in rapidly becoming a nascent superpower. Indeed, the nation’s rise to greater prominence has been one of the defining features of the post-Cold War period, and this has been reinforced by major trade and diplomatic initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative.
Take the example of Beijing’s growing economic power. International Monetary Fund data has asserted that, since 2014, the nation’s economy is now larger than that of the US on a purchasing power parity basis, which adjusts for the fact that goods are cheaper in China and other countries relative to America.
However, the consequences of the country’s generally strong growth in recent decades have been more than economic. In terms of perception, many believe the global balance of power has swung very significantly. Pew Global Research has highlighted this stark change in international perceptions of Beijing. A significant number of nations in its surveys now assert that China is the world’s “leading economic power.”
Many of the reasons for these changed perceptions of China’s strength stem from the aftermath of the 2008-09 financial crisis. While much of the developed world subsequently recovered, at a sometimes slow pace, from the worst economic downturn in a generation, China has enjoyed mostly strong growth.
Soft power is recognized by Beijing as a key political commodity, but one it has had limited success in cultivating to date.
Andrew Hammond
While welcomed by many in China, who understandably like recognition of the country’s growing might, this opinion shift is not without its headaches for Beijing. It has exposed the country to greater foreign scrutiny and fed into perceptions, seized upon by politicians, which tap into concerns about China’s rise.
The significantly harsher spotlight on the country, especially since 2008, has exposed a deficit of soft power, which is complicating its rise to power. Soft power is recognized by Beijing as a key political commodity, but one it has had limited success in cultivating to date.
As international perceptions of the country’s power have changed, its global favorability has shown weakness in multiple key countries, as underlined by the Pew Research Center. And this has been exacerbated by the pandemic.
According to a survey conducted by Pew in 14 countries, a median of 61 percent of respondents said China has done a bad job dealing with the coronavirus outbreak. Confidence in Xi also fell in the surveyed countries, with the poll showing a median of 78 percent having little or no confidence in the leader.
Beijing must find better ways to tackle this soft power deficit, especially if such critical scrutiny intensifies. This could include enhanced international public diplomacy to win more foreign hearts and minds.
China should also restart a process of addressing foreign concerns about its intentions as a rising power. Here, it could intensify efforts to be seen as a responsible, peaceful global stakeholder — and match this rhetoric with action.
In the post-pandemic era, this agenda will pose significant challenges. However, unless it is tackled, the nation’s soft power deficit will only grow bigger.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
