Pakistan’s indecisive election outcome highlights risks to new IMF deal, says ratings agency

A woman cast her ballot to vote at a polling station during Pakistan's national elections in Karachi on February 8, 2024. (AFP/File)
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Updated 19 February 2024
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Pakistan’s indecisive election outcome highlights risks to new IMF deal, says ratings agency

  • The Feb. 8 election presented no clear winner, with Khan-backed independent candidates winning majority seats
  • Fitch Ratings says extended talks or Pakistan’s failure to secure a new IMF deal will ‘raise the probability of default’

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s indecisive election outcome and the resulting political uncertainty could complicate the country’s efforts for a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program, a US-based global rating agency said on Monday.

The Feb. 8 national election in Pakistan presented no clear winner, with independent candidates, backed by former premier Imran Khan, forming the largest group in parliament, according to official results.

The indecisive vote has left the parties of former PM Nawaz Sharif and former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, which came in second and third, struggling to form a minority coalition government.

Both Sharif and Khan have claimed victory in polls, leading to uncertainty regarding the formation of the new government in the South Asian country that barely averted a default last year, thanks to a $3 billion IMF program.

“The close outcome of Pakistan’s election and resulting near-term political uncertainty may complicate the country’s efforts to secure a financing agreement with the IMF, to succeed the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) expiring in March 2024,” Fitch Ratings said in a statement.

“A new deal is key to the country’s credit profile, and we assume one will be achieved within a few months, but an extended negotiation or failure to secure it would increase external liquidity stress and raise the probability of default.”

The nuclear-armed nation of more than 241 million has been grappling with a slow growth and record inflation and needs a stable government with the authority to take tough decisions.

On Monday, Pakistan’s sovereign dollar bonds fell as much as 1.2 cents, Tradeweb data showed, with the 2024 bond standing at 95.89 cents in the aftermath of the contentious election.

Analysts say negotiating a new IMF program, and at speed, will be critical for the new government.

Fitch Ratings said continued political instability in the country could prolong any discussions with the IMF, delay assistance from other multilateral and bilateral partners, or hamper the implementation of reforms.

“We believe a government will assume office and engage with the IMF relatively quickly, but risks to political stability are likely to remain high,” it added.


Pakistan PM, Azerbaijan president vow to boost trade and investment on ECO summit sidelines

Updated 59 min 44 sec ago
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Pakistan PM, Azerbaijan president vow to boost trade and investment on ECO summit sidelines

  • The summit brought together heads of government from ECO member states to discuss economic and political cooperation
  • Pakistan, bolstered by an IMF program, is looking to capitalize on its geostrategic location as a major trade and transit hub

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday met with Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of the 17th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) summit, Sharif’s office said, with the two leaders agreeing to boost bilateral trade and investment.

The prime minister led Pakistan’s delegation at the ECO summit in Khankendi, Azerbaijan on July 3-4, which focused on the promotion of trade, sustaining development and enhancing regional connectivity.

Sharif noted that recent interactions between leaders of the two countries had helped strengthen relations and invited President Ilham to visit Pakistan at his earliest convenience, according to the Pakistan PM’s office.

“The two leaders agreed to enhance their cooperation in the fields of trade and investment while expressing satisfaction over the progress made regarding the investment prospects,” Sharif’s office said.

“Both leaders reiterated their resolve to strengthen the economic partnership, especially Azerbaijan’s investment in Pakistan.”

This is Sharif’s third visit to Azerbaijan in 2025. He last traveled to Baku in May as part of a broader push at economic diplomacy with the Central Asian republics, to whom Pakistan has offered access to its southern ports in Karachi and Gwadar.

The ECO summit, themed as “New ECO Vision for a Sustainable and Climate Resilient Future,” brought together heads of state and government from ECO member states to discuss economic and political cooperation.

Founded in 1985 by Iran, Pakistan and Turkiye, the Eurasian intergovernmental organization included Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in 1992, aiming to establish a single market for goods and services.

Pakistan, slowly recovering from a macroeconomic crisis under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal, has been looking to capitalize on its geostrategic location to boost transit trade and foreign investment for a sustainable economic recovery.

In July 2024, Azerbaijan announced a $2 billion investment in Pakistan during a visit by President Ilham Aliyev to Islamabad. In September last year, Pakistan signed a contract to supply JF-17 Block III fighter jets to Azerbaijan, marking the deepening of defense cooperation.


India plans $230 million drone incentive after Pakistan conflict

Updated 04 July 2025
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India plans $230 million drone incentive after Pakistan conflict

  • India’s push to build more home-grown drones stems from its assessment of the four-day clash with Pakistan in May
  • The standoff marked the first time New Delhi, Islamabad utilized unmanned aerial vehicles at scale against each other

NEW DELHI: India will launch a $234 million incentive program for civil and military drone makers to reduce their reliance on imported components and counter rival Pakistan’s program built on support from China and Turkiye, three sources told Reuters.

India’s push to build more home-grown drones stems from its assessment of the four-day clash with Pakistan in May that marked the first time New Delhi and Islamabad utilized unmanned aerial vehicles at scale against each other. The nuclear-armed neighbors are now locked in a drones arms race.

New Delhi will launch a 20 billion Indian rupees ($234 million) program for three years that will cover manufacture of drones, components, software, counter drone systems, and services, two government and one industry source, who did not want to be named, told Reuters.

Details of the program have not been previously reported and its planned expenditure is higher than the modest 1.2 billion rupees production-linked incentive scheme New Delhi launched in 2021 to promote drone start-ups, which have struggled to raise capital and invest in research.

India’s civil aviation ministry, which is leading the incentives program, and defense ministry did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

Reuters previously reported that India plans to invest heavily in local industry and could spend as much as $470 million on unmanned aerial vehicles over the next 12 to 24 months, in what government and military officers said would be a staggered approach.

In the past, India has mainly imported military drones from its third-largest arms supplier, Israel, but in recent years its nascent drone industry has scaled up its cost-effective offerings, including for the military, although reliance on China continues for certain components such as motors, sensors and imaging systems.

Through the incentives, India is aiming to have at least 40 percent of key drone components made in the country by the end of fiscal year 2028 (April-March), the two government sources said.

“During (the India-Pakistan) conflict there was quite a lot of use of drones, loitering munitions and kamikaze drones on both sides,” Indian Defense Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh said last week.

“The lesson that we’ve learned is that we need to double down on our indigenization efforts to ensure that we build a large, effective, military drone manufacturing ecosystem.”

India bans import of drones but not their components and the government has planned additional incentives for manufacturers that procure parts from within the country, the two government sources said.

The state-run Small Industries Development Bank of India would also support the incentive program by providing cheap loans for working capital, research and development needs for the firms, the government sources added.

Currently, there are more than 600 drone manufacturing and associated companies in India, according to estimates shared by an industry source involved in the discussions for the incentives program.


Pakistan to use $1.4 billion climate loan to expand green investment, fiscal space — IMF

Updated 04 July 2025
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Pakistan to use $1.4 billion climate loan to expand green investment, fiscal space — IMF

  • IMF says reforms will create fiscal space, embed climate goals in budgets and public investment
  • Program aims to unlock private capital, improve disaster coordination, irrigation infrastructure across provinces

KARACHI: Pakistan will use a $1.4 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund’s climate resilience fund to expand fiscal space, embed climate planning into public investment decisions and unlock private-sector capital for green projects, the IMF said on Friday.

The financing, approved by the IMF’s Executive Board in May under its Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), is part of a broader reform program that aims to help Pakistan adapt to increasingly frequent and devastating climate shocks.

Pakistan is the first country in the Middle East and Central Asia region to access the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The fund was launched in 2022 to help climate-vulnerable low- and middle-income countries make the structural changes needed to protect their economies and populations.

“The RSF will help build climate resilience in Pakistan by creating fiscal space to address climate vulnerabilities, such as the need to improve climate-resilient adaptation infrastructure,” the IMF’s country office in Islamabad told Arab News in a written response.

“It will also boost climate’s prominence in public investment management and budget processes,” the statement said, “helping Pakistan better identify and target projects needed to strengthen resilience to climate shocks.”

A third pillar of the reforms, the IMF said, is improving the overall “enabling environment for green investment” so that banks and private firms could incorporate climate-related risk considerations into their risk management and investment activities.

The RSF financing will be disbursed over a 28-month period and runs alongside Pakistan’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), whose first review was also approved in May, releasing roughly $1 billion in immediate support.

CLIMATE-FINANCE GAP

Pakistan, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, has long struggled to align its public finances with the scale of climate risk it faces. The 2022 floods alone affected over 33 million people and caused more than $30 billion in damages and economic losses.

By reforming how climate priorities are reflected in budget planning and investment screening, the IMF says Pakistan will be better equipped to attract funding and respond to future disasters.

The RSF does not fund individual infrastructure projects. Instead, it supports “policy and institutional reforms that make climate action more effective,” the statement explained.

These include reforms in disaster coordination, water and irrigation infrastructure, and provincial implementation capacity.

The IMF program supports better coordination between the federal and provincial governments on disaster risk financing, a chronic weakness in past emergency responses, and policy changes that would strengthen water and irrigation management, the lender added in the statement.

“Policy reforms that directly target Pakistan’s water management and irrigation infrastructure would help make farmers more resilient to climate shocks,” it said, adding the focus would be on improving irrigation service standards, reliability, and water supply adequacy.

The reforms also aim to reduce waterlogging, salinity, groundwater depletion, and growing water insecurity, issues that disproportionately impact poor rural communities.

The IMF said its climate program in Pakistan takes a “whole-of-government” approach, with many reforms to be implemented at the provincial level.

“Much of the focus is on improving coordination mechanisms between the federal government and the provinces.”


Six killed as residential building collapses in Pakistan’s Karachi

Updated 04 July 2025
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Six killed as residential building collapses in Pakistan’s Karachi

  • Lyari incident underscores frequent building failures in megacity plagued by poor construction oversight
  • More than 80 killed in Karachi building collapses since 2020, Sindh Building Control Authority data shows

KARACHI: At least six people were killed on Friday when a multi-storey residential building collapsed in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi, police said, the latest in a series of deadly structural failures in the country’s largest metropolis.

Local media reported the building, located in Karachi’s densely populated Lyari neighborhood, housed several families and multiple residents were still believed to be trapped under the rubble.

Television footage showed volunteers and rescue workers digging through the debris for survivors.

“So far, six bodies have been recovered from the debris, while several people are still trapped underneath. Rescue operations are currently ongoing,” Arif Aziz, a senior superintendent of police, told Arab News.

There was no immediate comment from the Sindh Building Control Authority (SBCA) — which regulates construction in the city — on whether the building had previously been declared unsafe.

Karachi, home to over 20 million people, has long faced a crisis of unregulated urban expansion, with illegal construction, aging infrastructure and weak enforcement contributing to frequent building collapses.

According to the SBCA’s own reports and official data published in local media, more than 80 people have been killed in building collapses in Karachi since 2020, including incidents in Gulbahar, Lyari, Qur’angi, Shah Faisal Colony and North Nazimabad.

In one of the worst such disasters in recent years, a five-storey residential building collapsed in Lyari’s Koyla Godam area in June 2020, killing at least 25 people and injuring dozens. In April 2024, a three-storey structure came down in North Nazimabad, killing one person and wounding four others. In October 2023, a building collapse in Shah Faisal Colony left five dead.

Despite repeated tragedies, officials have been criticized for failing to crack down on unsafe buildings and prosecute those responsible for unauthorized or substandard construction.

The SBCA has previously stated it lacks resources to inspect thousands of buildings across Karachi, while citizens have alleged widespread corruption and political interference in the issuance of permits.


Trade, connectivity, regional cooperation in focus as Pakistani PM at ECO summit

Updated 04 July 2025
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Trade, connectivity, regional cooperation in focus as Pakistani PM at ECO summit

  • Theme of this year’s summit is “New ECO Vision for a Sustainable and Climate Resilient Future”
  • Sharif will hold bilateral meetings with other leaders attending summit to discuss matters of mutual interest

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will address the 17th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) summit in Khankendi, Azerbaijan today, where he is expected to present Pakistan’s views on regional and global challenges, trade promotion, sustainable development and enhanced connectivity.

According to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Office, Sharif will also hold bilateral meetings with other leaders attending the summit to discuss matters of mutual interest.

The theme of this year’s summit is “New ECO Vision for a Sustainable and Climate Resilient Future.” 

“Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif will participate in the ECO summit in Khankendi, Azerbaijan, where he will speak on global and regional issues, trade promotion, sustainable development, regional connectivity and solutions to regional challenges,” the PMO said.

The summit brings together heads of state and government from ECO member states to discuss economic and political cooperation. 

This is Sharif’s third visit to Azerbaijan in 2025. He last traveled to Baku in May, where he held talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on strengthening bilateral cooperation in energy and trade.

The Economic Cooperation Organization was established in 1985 by Iran, Turkiye and Pakistan and later expanded to include Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The ten-member bloc aims to promote economic, technical and cultural collaboration across Central and South Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East.