ANKARA: Turkiye’s threat to strike Kurdish militant sites across its border is a “shot across the bow” to the US and other actors in the Syrian conflict, analysts have told Arab News.
The warning on Wednesday — that all PKK and YPG sites are “legitimate military targets” — is viewed as a precursor to a high-level cross-border Turkish operation.
With normalization between Ankara and Damascus “already losing momentum,” a new offensive could involve “jets, drones and howitzers” striking specific targets, said Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Syria studies at the ORSAM think tank.
And Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s vague warning for “third parties” to “steer clear” of Turkish targets is also a show of force by Ankara to the US, Damascus, Iran and Russia, Orhan added.
Fidan said on Wednesday that all infrastructure and energy facilities belonging to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, and its Syrian Kurdish affiliate, People’s Protection Units YPG in Syria and Iraq, are now legitimate military targets.
The bombing outside the Interior Ministry in Ankara on Sunday was claimed by the HPG, a faction associated with the PKK, according to Turkish authorities.
“I recommend that third parties steer clear of these targeted facilities,” Fidan — former head of the country’s National Intelligence Organization — warned on Wednesday, without specifying the identity of any “third parties.”
The ambiguity surrounding the statement has sparked vigorous debate over Fidan’s warning to the US and other actors in the Syrian conflict.
Turkish officials have confirmed that the two attackers responsible for the Sunday bombing were PKK members who entered Turkiye from Syria, potentially from Tal Rifaat or Manbij.
The PKK has led a decades-long insurgency in Turkiye and is considered a terror organization by the US, the EU, and Turkiye.
One of the assailants detonated an explosive device, while the other was killed in a subsequent gunfight with police.
Two police officers were injured.
The two attackers had stolen their vehicle from a veterinarian, who they killed in the Central Anatolian province of Kayseri, a city located southeast of Ankara.
In response to the Sunday attack in northern Iraq, Turkish jets have carried out several cross-border airstrikes against PKK bases in caves, shelters and depots.
Unmanned armed drones belonging to Turkiye’s National Intelligence Agency also hit several targets in Hasakah city in northern Syria on Wednesday evening and Thursday, destroying critical YPG bases.
Earlier this week in Hasakah, the Turkish National Intelligence Organization also killed Nabo Kele Hayri, code-named Mazlum Afrin, the figure believed to be behind last year’s bloody bomb attack on Istanbul’s famous Istiklal Street.
Amid tension following the airstrikes, Iraqi Defense Minister Thabit Mohammed Al-Abbasi will visit Ankara on Thursday to meet his Turkish counterpart Yasar Guler.
Rich Outzen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and Jamestown Foundation, told Arab News: “The public statements by Foreign Minister Fidan, coupled with high-level security meetings being held in Ankara, indicate that a high-profile operation will likely be conducted in the next day or so.”
According to Outzen, on one level, any operation would be a direct response to the PKK attack, while on another level, it would also serve as a shot across the bow to the US and its anti-Daesh coalition partners that the continued — and in some cases increasing — proximity of Western forces to PKK-linked strategy contravenes Turkish security red lines.
For example, the presence of US advisers in Iraq with SDF/YPG leader Mazloom Abdi in Sulaymaniya earlier this year “indicates an apparent erosion in carefully delimiting support to Daesh in Iraq,” he said.
But Outzen added that Fidan’s latest warning does not appear to be a threat or demand for US withdrawal from northeast Syria.
He said that the statement concerns the when, where and why of US-YPG operations.
“There is low risk in the eyes of the Turks for the known US operating locations or in the field during Daesh operations. But there is a higher risk with YPG fighters in convoys, Iraq, or areas of Syria near the Turkish border,” he said.
“Especially given that the Turks believe the YPG facilitated the entry of the terrorists in this week’s attack from Syria into Turkiye, they view all PKK/YPG locations in northern Syria as potential terror launching points and, therefore, legitimate targets,” Outzen said.
He added that US forces “will almost certainly have to adjust their rules of engagement to account for this.”
Outzen believes that Washington’s response to Fidan’s statement will be to discretely, via diplomatic and defense channels, strongly reiterate its red line of safeguarding the US presence in the region.
“It would be well advised to also communicate at the same time clear rules of engagement about when and where US forces will travel with SDF/YPG personnel, and which locations likely have US presence,” he said.
Outzen added that this will be necessary from a force protection point of view.
“There may be some public push back from Congress or commentators about implied or veiled threat, but I don’t think that’s the real story here.”
Speaking at the opening session of the Legislative Year of the 28th Term of the Turkish parliament, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan highlighted the country’s strategy to protect its southern border with a security zone at least 30 km deep.
“The new steps we will take are just a matter of preparation, time and the right conditions. That is why the saying ‘we may turn up suddenly one night’ should never fall on deaf ears,” he said.
Orhan of the ORSAM think tank said that recent military maneuvers by Turkiye, along with statements made by prominent figures such as Fidan and Erdogan, may signal an impending offensive in the region.
“The normalization process between Ankara and Damascus has already lost momentum due to Syria’s uncompromising demands for a complete Turkish military withdrawal from the northern regions of the war-torn country,” said Orhan.
Ankara “had initially advocated for dialogue with the Syrian regime, expecting cooperation against the presence of PKK/YPG forces on Syrian soil. However, no substantial progress has been achieved in this regard,” he told Arab News.
Orhan said that Fidan’s warning to third parties conveyed a message to all factions engaged in the Syrian conflict.
This message extended not only to the US, but also to Damascus, Russia and Iran, he added.
“Previously, Turkish drones hit energy facilities belonging to the PKK/YPG several times. This time, a new offensive along the borders could involve jets, drones and howitzers to strike specific targets,” he said.
However, Orhan added that a full Turkish ground offensive appears unlikely.
Instead, he suggested that any potential operation would be tactical, primarily intended to communicate Turkiye’s security priorities to all actors in the region.
The military maneuvers coincide with the restart of work on a crude oil pipeline from Iraq this week after the February earthquakes suspended operations.
