Global growth forecasts plummet amid Ukraine war; Brazil’s central bank hikes interest rates — Macro Snapshot

The global growth forecast has been downgraded from 4 percent to 3.2 percent (Getty)
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Updated 23 March 2022
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Global growth forecasts plummet amid Ukraine war; Brazil’s central bank hikes interest rates — Macro Snapshot

RIYADH: The war in Ukraine has pushed global growth predictions down 0.5 percent, with Italy’s growth trailing back by 1.7 percent.

While Brazil’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rates by 100-basis point, Morocco held its interest rate at 1.5 percent. The British pound and Japanese yen saw alterations, even as Canada’s stocks hit a record high spurred by a rally in the technology stocks. 

Global growth forecast 

Independent economic research provider Capital Economics has downgraded the global growth forecast from 4 percent to 3.2 percent as the war in Ukraine continues.

Previous growth for 2022 was seen to slow from 6 percent to 4 percent. But given the Western’s aggressive response to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis will further cripple Russia’s economy, disrupt global supply chains, and fuel even higher inflation, the global growth is expected to fall to 3.2 percent.

It could drop further drop to 3 percent if Western sanctions on energy trade are backed up with secondary sanctions.

In that scenario, major central banks in advanced economies may consider scaling back tightening plans in order to support real activity, pointed out the Capital Economics report. 

Tunisia default risk to rise if IMF deal delays

Tunisia is heading for default if the current deterioration in its finances continues, investment bank Morgan Stanley warned on Monday.

“In a scenario where the current rate of fiscal deterioration continues, it is probable that Tunisia would default on its debt,” Morgan Stanley said, adding it was likely to happen next year unless they secured a quick IMF program and made major spending cuts.

It follows a similar warning from credit rating agency Fitch on Friday which downgraded Tunisia’s sovereign score to “CCC” from “B-minus”. Fitch estimated an 8.5 percent of GDP government deficit this year would push Tunisia’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio up to 84 percent.

Brazil hikes interest rate

Brazil’s central bank considered the implications of a lower rate hike of at least 75 basis points but decided on a 100-basis-point increase which would be timelier given the inflationary pressures as it approaches the end of its aggressive monetary tightening cycle.

The central bank felt the conflict in Ukraine added further uncertainty and volatility and caused a supply shock in several commodities, especially energy-related ones, before raising the benchmark rate to 11.75 percent.

Policymakers had indicated last week another 100-basis-point hike at the next meeting in May, hardening its stance to put interest rates into an even more restrictive territory to curb second-round effects of the current supply shock. 

Canada stocks hit record high

Canada’s main stock index scaled another record high at the open on Tuesday as gains in technology shares overshadowed weakness in commodity-linked stocks.

At 9:34 a.m. ET (13:34 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index GSPTSE was up 52.59 points, or 0.24 percent, at 22,061.72.

Morocco holds interest rate

Morocco’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at an all-time low of 1.5 percent on Tuesday, saying its accommodative monetary policy was needed to shore up the economy amid inflationary pressures resulting from the war in Ukraine.

Driven by imported goods, inflation is expected to surge to 4.7 percent this year from 1.4 percent in 2021, before slowing to 1.9 percent next year, the bank said in a statement following its quarterly board meeting.

The bank revised down its 2022 growth forecast to 0.7 percent from an earlier 2.9 percent, citing a severe drought that lowered prospects for this year’s cereals harvest to 2.5 million tons.

Dollar rises, yen falls

The dollar rose on Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell put the possibility of half-percentage-point interest rate hikes on the table, while the yen fell through the psychological 120 level as the Bank of Japan reiterated its support for ultra-loose monetary policy.

The yen JPY=EBS hit a six-year low, down 1.1 percent to 120.81 at 12:30 GMT, having lost around 5 percent against the dollar this month, as leaping US yields and a deteriorating trade balance suck cash from the world’s third-biggest economy.

Yen crosses also suffered, with the euro EURJPY touching a five-month high of 133.30. The Japanese currency slumped to an almost seven-year low against the Swiss franc CHFJPY.
Japan must maintain ultra-loose monetary policy lest inflation hurt the economy, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday — contrasting with hawkish overnight comments from Powell.

Italy cuts growth forecast

Italy is set to downgrade its growth outlook this year to around 3 percent from a previous 4.7 percent target, a Treasury official said on Tuesday, amid surging energy costs and turmoil linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We will revise the growth estimates, this year growth will be around 3 percent,” Treasury Undersecretary Maria Cecilia Guerra told an Italian radio station.

The euro zone’s third-largest economy grew 6.6 percent last year following a record contraction of 9.0 percent in 2020 caused by extended coronavirus lockdowns.

However, this year did not begin well. Italian industrial output dived 3.4 percent in January from the month before, its steepest fall for more than a year, even before the headwinds generated by the Ukraine war.

The conflict has exacerbated already sky-high energy costs and triggered supply crunches for agriculture, prompting the ruling coalition to put pressure on Prime Minister Mario Draghi to approve an extra borrowing package.

The Treasury will detail its fiscal plans this month, when it publishes new growth forecasts and public finance targets in its annual Economic and Financial Document (DEF).

British pound jumps

The British pound strengthened to a two-week high against the euro as it continued to retrace losses which followed what investors perceived as a dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of England on March 17.

Focus has turned to UK inflation data and British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement, both scheduled on Wednesday.

Commerzbank said the update on UK inflation could move the pound considerably if rising prices once again exceed expectations.

If this was to be the case again tomorrow the BoE rate hike expectations could be fueled again, allowing sterling to recover somewhat further against EUR, Commerzbank FX analyst You-Na Park-Heger said.

(With input from Reuters)


Qassim region sees 25% growth in business sector over 7 years: Ministry of Commerce

Updated 12 sec ago
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Qassim region sees 25% growth in business sector over 7 years: Ministry of Commerce

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s Qassim region has experienced 25 percent growth in its business sector over the past seven years, reflecting increased economic activity and contributing to the Kingdom’s goal of balanced development.

The number of commercial records in the central region rose from 68,000 in 2018 to 85,000 by the end of the first quarter of this year, the Ministry of Commerce reported in a post on its official X account.

The latest figures showed that the Qassim region saw 1,342 e-commerce registrations, contributing to the overall 6 percent year-on-year increase in the sector.

The increase comes as the Kingdom pushes ahead with its economic diversification strategy, aiming to increase the private sector’s share of the gross domestic product from 40 percent to 65 percent by 2030.

This effort is reflected in a 60 percent increase in commercial registrations in 2024 across the Kingdom, with a total of 521,969 records issued, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

Business registrations continued to rise in early 2025, with 154,638 commercial records issued in the first quarter alone, representing a 48 percent year-on-year increase.

The ministry report highlighted “critical sectors” for the Kingdom include technology, tourism, and entertainment, as well as research and development.

The report added: “These sectors offer businesses significant opportunities to grow and expand partnerships.”

According to the Ministry of Commerce, a commercial registration certificate verifies a business’s official status within Saudi Arabia. These records are essential for operating in the Kingdom, as they are required to open a bank account, hire employees, sign contracts, and conduct other business activities.

The data also showed that 71 percent of the total commercial records issued were concentrated in three key regions: Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern Province.

This surge in registrations aligns with recent reforms to Saudi Arabia’s business registration system, including the introduction of the new Commercial Register Law and Trade Names Law.

Subsidiary registers have also been abolished, meaning that one commercial register now covers all businesses, and companies no longer need to specify the city of registration, as a single enrollment is now valid nationwide.

The bulletin also revealed that 45 percent of the total commercial records issued to institutions are owned by women.

In an interview with Arab News in April on the sidelines of the Human Capability Initiative held in the capital, Zeger Degraeve, dean of Prince Mohammed Bin Salman College of Business & Entrepreneurship, emphasized that ensuring balanced regional development is crucial as Saudi Arabia accelerates its economic diversification efforts under Vision 2030.

The rise in business registrations in Qassim is aligning with its growing industrial sector, supported by its rich mineral resources, which are a key focus of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification plan.

The region’s SR122 billion ($32.5 billion) in untapped mineral wealth, including significant deposits of gold, copper, zinc, and phosphate, contributes to the area’s industrial development, which has seen substantial growth.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,543  

Updated 3 min 42 sec ago
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,543  

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dipped on Thursday, losing 127.90 points, or 1.10 percent, to close at 11,543.67.  

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.09 billion ($1.35 billion), as 52 stocks advanced, while 193 retreated.  

The MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 16.97 points, or 1.14 percent, to close at 1,471.91. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also dipped, losing 147.4 points, or 0.52 percent, to close at 28,129.77. This came as 32 stocks rose, while 41 fell. 

The best-performing stock on the main index was Saudi Printing and Packaging Co., with its share price surging by 6.18 percent to SR13.06.  

Saudi Cement Co. saw the steepest decline on the main index in Thursday’s session, with its share price slipping 5.75 percent to SR43.40.  

In a bourse filing, Banque Saudi Fransi announced that it has completed its $650 million offering of US dollar-denominated Additional Tier 1 capital notes.  

The issuance, conducted under the bank’s Additional Tier 1 Capital Note Programme, was offered to eligible investors in Saudi Arabia and internationally, with settlement set for May 7.  

The notes were issued at a return of 6.375 percent per annum and are perpetual in nature, with a call option exercisable after six years. A total of 3,250 notes were issued, each with a par value of $200,000. 

According to the bank, the instruments may be redeemed prior to the scheduled call date under certain conditions outlined in the base offering circular.  

The notes will be listed on the International Securities Market of the London Stock Exchange and were offered in reliance on Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended. 

The bank’s share price traded 0.54 percent lower on the main market to reach SR18.30.

Halwani Bros. Co. also announced its interim financial results for the first three months of the year, with net profit amounting to SR11.51 million, a 4.58 percent decline compared to the previous quarter last year.  

The company attributed the decrease to higher general and administrative expenses, as well as increased selling and distribution costs. It also said that this was due to an increase in other income as a result of the reversal of provisions that are no longer needed.  

Halwani Bros. Co’s share price traded 0.52 percent lower on the main market to reach SR47.95.  

In the first quarter of 2025, Fourth Milling Co’s net profit rose 25.154 percent quarter on quarter to SR52.6 million, according to a filing on the stock exchange.  

The group attributed the increase to sales growing by 2 percent, amounting to an increase of SR3.4 million, and zakat and tax payments decreasing by SR1.4 million.  

The company’s share price traded 0.25 percent lower on the main market to reach SR3.97.  

Saudi Steel Pipe Co. also announced its interim financial results for the first three months of the year, with net profit amounting to SR69 million, an 81.57 percent surge compared to the previous quarter.  

The company attributed the increase to higher volume, improved efficiency and product mix of products sold, and administrative expenses decreased to SR14 million in the first quarter 2025 from SR19 million in the fourth 2024. 

The company’s share price traded 0.18 percent higher on the main market to reach SR56.10. 


Arab Monetary Fund reports 4.3% annual gains across region’s stock markets

Updated 01 May 2025
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Arab Monetary Fund reports 4.3% annual gains across region’s stock markets

RIYADH: Stock markets across the Middle East and North Africa began 2025 on a strong note, with the Arab Monetary Fund Composite Index rising 4.37 percent year over year, according to a new report.

On a quarterly basis, the index — which tracks the performance of 16 Arab stock markets— posted a 1.55 percent increase, reflecting investor confidence amid shifting global monetary policy and geopolitical headwinds.

The figures were released as part of the AMF’s quarterly bulletin, which noted that sectors such as banking, real estate, and basic materials, as well as transportation, and financial services performed well, contributing to gains in several markets. 

The strong performance comes amid reforms across Arab markets to deepen liquidity and attract foreign investment. Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority is advancing its 2024-2026 strategy to elevate its global market position and enhance investor safeguards, while Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange recently launched the “New ADX Group”— a market infrastructure overhaul aligned with the emirate’s long-term economic vision. 

In its report, the AMF said: “This performance unfolded amid a tightening global monetary policy environment during the first quarter of 2025, as most central banks, both globally and across the Arab region, adopted a cautious approach to monetary easing following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady.”

The fund highlighted that while some Arab exchanges saw notable gains, others experienced declines. 

Casablanca Stock Exchange led the region with a 20.19 percent rise in its index, driven by strong performances in the banking and telecommunications sectors. 

Tunisia and Kuwait followed with increases of 10.25 percent and 9.66 percent, respectively, while Egyptian Exchange and Amman Stock Exchange posted gains of 7.68 percent and 6.12 percent.

However, not all markets fared as well. Saudi Stock Exchange, the largest in the region by market capitalization, saw a slight decline of 0.10 percent, while Abu Dhabi Securities Market and Palestine Exchange recorded drops of 0.53 percent and 0.46 percent, respectively. 

Beirut Stock Exchange faced the steepest decline, plummeting by 12.69 percent, attributed to ongoing economic challenges in Lebanon.

Despite Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis since 2019, recent data from the Central Administration of Statistics shows signs of easing inflationary pressures. 

The annual inflation rate dropped sharply to 14.2 percent in March, down from 70.36 percent a year earlier — a notable improvement attributed largely to the stabilization of the Lebanese pound, which has held steady at approximately 89,500 Lebanese pounds per US dollar since mid-2023.

Casablanca Stock Exchange led the rises across the region. Shutterstock

Market capitalization and trading activity 

The total market capitalization of Arab stock markets decreased by 1.45 percent in the first quarter of 2025, reaching $4.32 trillion, down by $63.77 billion compared to the last quarter of 2024. 

This decline was primarily due to significant losses in the Abu Dhabi and Saudi markets, which shed $18.23 billion and $75.06 billion, respectively.

In contrast, Casablanca Stock Exchange added $21.26 billion to its market value, while Kuwait Stock Exchange saw an increase of $13.77 billion. 

Trading values also reflected this mixed performance. Total trading value across Arab markets fell by 2.60 percent to $250.53 billion.  

Kuwait Stock Exchange stood out with a 45.09 percent surge in trading value, reaching $21.95 billion. This strong performance builds on 2024’s momentum, when 113 out of 142 listed companies reported profits, as highlighted in an Al-Shall Consulting report.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Securities Market saw a 31 percent drop in trading value.

Sectoral performance and global influences 

Global factors played a significant role in shaping market trends, with sectors scuh as insurance, consumer services, and media faced declines. “The cautious monetary policies of most global and Arab central banks, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stabilize interest rates, positively impacted lending and financing stability,” the study stated. 

However, it also warned that “the escalation of US trade policies, including new tariffs, has raised concerns about slowing international trade and rising production costs, which could directly affect global growth expectations, inflation rates, and investor confidence.”

Geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in oil prices further influenced market dynamics. “Oil prices experienced significant volatility during the first quarter of 2025 due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased production from some countries, impacting markets closely tied to oil and affecting liquidity and the performance of the energy sector,” the AMF explained.

Individual market highlights 

Saudi Stock Exchange is the largest in the region by market capitalization. Bloomberg

Saudi Stock Exchange, which accounts for 61.13 percent of the total market capitalization of Arab exchanges, saw its value drop to $2.64 trillion. The media and utilities sectors were among the worst performers, declining by 31 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

Despite the recent dip, Saudi Arabia’s capital markets remain a regional powerhouse.

Speaking at February’s Capital Markets Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Exchange CEO Mohammed Al-Rumaih said:  “2024 was a great year for us. We did more than 55 listings; around 45 in the equity market, 13 on the main market, which doubled compared to 2023, and the rest in the parallel market. It put us as No.1 not just in the region, but globally as the fastest-growing exchange in the world.”

Egyptian Exchange rose by 7.68 percent, with trading volumes surging by 27.28 percent, reflecting renewed investor confidence.  

Kuwait Stock Exchange outperformed other Gulf markets, with its index climbing 9.66 percent, supported by robust activity in the banking sector. 

Casablanca Stock Exchange’s 20.19 percent jump was fueled by gains in electricity, mining, and telecom stocks, with firms like Attijariwafa Bank and Maroc Telecom leading the charge.  

Risks and outlook 

The report cautioned that several risks could destabilize Arab and global markets in the coming months.

“Potential risks include trade-related pressures linked to tariffs, a possible global economic slowdown, rising inflation, fluctuations in oil prices, high debt levels in some Arab economies, and geopolitical tensions,” it stated.

Despite the relative stability of Arab exchanges in the inaugural quarter of 2025, these factors could pose challenges to future performance. 

The AMF also emphasized the importance of continued cooperation among Arab markets to enhance integration and support economic growth in the region. 

“The Fund hopes that these efforts will contribute to developing cooperation and integration among Arab financial markets, serving common interests and promoting economic growth in the Arab region,” the analysis concluded.


Peru keen to boost agricultural, food exports to Saudi Arabia, foreign minister says

Updated 01 May 2025
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Peru keen to boost agricultural, food exports to Saudi Arabia, foreign minister says

RIYADH: Peru is seeking to boost exports of agricultural and food industry products to Saudi Arabia while leveraging the tax incentives and benefits available to foreign investors, a top official said.

During a meeting in Riyadh with Federation of Saudi Chambers board member Emad Sadad Al-Fakhri, Peru’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmer Schialer Salcedo also invited investors from the Kingdom to an upcoming agricultural products exhibition scheduled for September, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

Salcedo explained that while South American exports to Saudi Arabia total about $3.8 billion annually, Peru accounts for only $70 million of that sum. 

The newly released SPA statement said: “Al-Fakhri briefed the Peruvian delegation on recent developments in the Saudi economy and the Kingdom’s efforts to strengthen its economic partnerships, including with Peru. He underscored Saudi Arabia’s competitive advantages and investment opportunities.”

It added: “Al-Fakhri also stressed the importance of enhancing bilateral cooperation between the federation and its Peruvian counterpart through signed agreements and a joint business council. He proposed increasing the exchange of trade delegations, organizing economic forums, and exploring investment prospects in sectors such as tourism, trade, and agriculture.”

Peru opened an embassy in Riyadh in 2012, and the Kingdom followed suit in Lima in 2013, marking a milestone in their relations. Since then, economic and political ties have grown progressively, reflected in trade exchanges that have reached a peak of $188 million in recent years.

Writing for Arab News ahead of his trip to Saudi Arabia, Salcedo said he is “struck by how much potential lies in building bridges between our nations.”



The minister highlighted opportunities for investors from the Kingdom across several sectors, adding that economic protections are “reinforced by a legal framework that guarantees equal treatment for foreign investors and adherence to international investment protection mechanisms.”

In energy, key initiatives include the petrochemical plant project, the Southern Peru Integrated Gas Transportation System, and the 2025–2034 Transmission Plan. 

In mining, major projects such as El Galeno and Los Chancas stand out, while infrastructure developments include the Andean Longitudinal Highway, the Ancon Industrial Park, and the Ilo Desalination Plant.

These large-scale undertakings offer opportunities for Saudi investors to contribute to Peru’s economic transformation while ensuring sustainable and profitable returns.

“Peru warmly welcomes Saudi businesses, investors and policymakers to discover the vast opportunities that this dynamic relationship can offer. Together, we can open new economic frontiers and lay the foundation for a future of shared prosperity, innovation and enduring cooperation,” said Salcedo.


Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 2.7% in Q1: GASTAT 

Updated 01 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 2.7% in Q1: GASTAT 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s economy saw annual growth of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong momentum in non-oil activities as the Kingdom continues efforts to diversify away from hydrocarbons. 

According to flash estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics, non-oil activities expanded 4.2 percent during the first three months of the year, extending their growth streak to 17 consecutive quarters. Government services rose 3.2 percent, while oil-related activities contracted 1.4 percent. 

Saudi Arabia’s growth in the non-oil sector aligns with the goals outlined in the Vision 2030 program, which aims to diversify the country’s economy by reducing reliance on crude revenues. 

This comes as the International Monetary Fund, in its latest economic outlook, noted that short-term growth in the Middle East will be driven by the expansion of the non-oil sector, projecting the region’s economy to grow by 2.6 percent in 2025 and 3.4 percent in 2026. 

In a release, GASTAT stated it has conducted “a comprehensive revision of GDP estimates as part of its efforts to achieve high levels of alignment with international standards and data quality.” 

It added: “Nominal and real GDP (annually and quarterly) time series have been revised accordingly.”  

On a quarterly basis, seasonally adjusted GDP rose 0.9 percent, with government activities jumping 4.9 percent and non-oil output increasing 1.0 percent. Oil sector GDP dropped 1.2 percent amid ongoing production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth also aligns with the broader Middle East trend, where other countries are steadily diversifying their economies. 

Qatar’s full-year GDP for 2024 grew by 1.7 percent, driven by a 1.9 percent rise in non-hydrocarbon activities. The UAE’s central bank projects 4 percent GDP growth in 2024, while Bahrain reported year-on-year expansion of 2.1 percent in the third quarter. 

Saudi Arabia is ramping up efforts to enhance its data infrastructure, drive digital transformation, and harness artificial intelligence and advanced technologies to boost the efficiency and accuracy of its statistical operations. 

Speaking at the first Saudi Statistics Forum held earlier this week, Fahad Al-Dossari, president of GASTAT, reiterated the authority’s commitment to supporting decision-makers by continuously developing the statistical system to meet national and international standards. 

“Statistics are no longer merely supportive tools; today, they are at the heart of development work and a critical enabler of sustainable development, ensuring efficient spending, enhancing service quality, and supporting economic and social growth,” Al-Dossari said during the event in Riyadh.