Nile dam dispute poses a thorny challenge for Ethiopia and Egypt

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The Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, near Guba in Ethiopia, above. William Davison, below, a senior analyst on Ethiopian affairs with International Crisis Group. (AFP)
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Updated 20 July 2020
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Nile dam dispute poses a thorny challenge for Ethiopia and Egypt

  • Mini-African summit fixed for Tuesday in the latest effort to break protracted deadlock
  • Experts say disagreements run deeper than technical matters and the sharing of water

DUBAI: When Egyptian, Ethiopian and Sudanese officials meet to resolve their differences on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Addis Ababa is building on the Blue Nile, they instantly run into many thorny issues.

These disputes run deeper than technical matters and the sharing of water, experts and analysts say. Because they are also legal, historical and trust-related, a tripartite agreement has proved elusive. An eventual deal could take longer because major differences persist, mainly between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Officials from the three countries concluded two weeks of talks on July 13, supervised by the African Union (AU) and observed by US and European officials, but came no closer to an agreement. Officials were quoted as saying that the three countries would submit their final reports to the AU and that a mini-African summit would be held on Tuesday.




An aerial view shows the River Nile before sunset in the Helwan suburb south of the Egyptian capital Cairo on June 20, 2020. (Photo by Khaled Desouki / AFP)

The talks were the latest in a decade-long effort by the three African countries to resolve differences over the GERD. Ethiopia hopes the 6,000-megawatt dam will turn it into Africa’s top hydropower supplier. Egypt and Sudan fear the dam — being constructed less than 20 km from Ethiopia’s eastern border with Sudan — will substantially reduce their water share and affect development prospects.

While Addis Ababa insists the dam will benefit all Nile river basin states, the three countries are stymied by technical issues on how and when to fill the reservoir and how much water it should release, along with procedures for drought mitigation.

Experts and analysts from Africa and outside say the differences are fundamental and require sincerity. “Vital national interests are at stake, particularly on the Egyptian and Ethiopian sides,” said William Davison, a senior analyst on Ethiopian affairs with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Ethiopia considers the project important for development and thus named it the “renaissance dam,” he said, adding: “It is also seen as vital to overcoming injustices from past treaties that excluded the country and denied it water allocations.”

Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for agriculture, industry and drinking water, worries that such a large dam will reduce water supplies “in a problematic way” in the future, Davison told Arab News from Addis Ababa.

Satellite images released recently showed water pouring into the reservoir, prompting Seleshi Bekele, the Ethiopian water minister, to assuage Egyptian anxieties by insisting that the process was the product of natural seasonal flooding and not direct action by the government.

Egyptian analysts say Ethiopia is ignoring its neighbors’ interests. “The talks have failed because of continuous Ethiopian obstinacy,” said Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies. “Ethiopia has been buying time to impose a new reality on the ground . . . they don’t intend to reach an agreement.”

INNUMBERS

$4.8 billion Estimated cost of GERD.

15% Cost as share of Ethiopia’s 2012 GDP.

20,000 People in need of resettlement.

Source: International Rivers Organization

Other experts say that a positive attitude by the parties would help. “There is a tendency on each side to see the other in a more threatening manner, which I think is the key issue here,” said Mulugetta Ketema, managing director of the US-based Cogent International Solutions, a research and analysis center.

“Instead of starting negotiations based on who can dominate over which country or region, I think you should start by saying ‘How can we work together to utilize his river.’”

Ketema, who is Ethiopian-American, added: “I am sure everybody is doing their best, but there is a historical issue also at play here. For centuries Egypt and Sudan didn’t have anybody saying they could do this or that . . . they have been using the river for their own advantage.

“However, now the basin countries . . . are also growing and saying ‘Hey, we have to use or share something with our brothers and sisters up north and harvest the river.’ Apparently, this is where the problem starts.”

The Nile basin includes Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. Most were not part of the agreements signed during the British colonial years that gave Egypt and Sudan a big share of the Nile waters, Ketema said. Except for Ethiopia, those countries were under British control.

Apart from the legal differences over the term of references consultants use in their reports, drought mitigation remains a major obstacle. Egypt and Sudan seek Ethiopia’s commitment to a safe minimum release of water in dry seasons. Addis Ababa has been unwilling to do so, according to Davison.

“More recently, in the negotiations, there has been a series of legal disputes or disagreements. Sudan and Egypt would like a process of binding third-party arbitration as a last resort to resolve any future dispute (but) the Ethiopians . . . are not willing to sign up to that,” he told Arab News.

Ethiopia insists that Africa needs to solve African affairs. “Historically, Africans have been solving their own problems and did a better job than outside interference,” Ketema said. “Europeans and the UN tried to mediate in some issues, but it really never worked.” Should the AU fail to reach a solution on the GERD, other developing nations could extend their hands, he said.

To many Egyptian analysts, Ethiopia’s insistence on “African solutions” aims to “keep the negotiations going in a vicious circle until the dam is completely full and then there will be no meaning for negotiations,” Al-Ahram Center’s Raslan told Arab News.




A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia. (Photo by EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP)

“A practical solution is available already,” he said, referring to a US-drafted agreement that emerged from talks in Washington DC earlier this year. Egypt initialled the document, while Ethiopia declined.

The ministers agreed on a schedule for a staggered filling of the dam and mitigation mechanism, according to the document, but still needed to finalize details on safety and ways of handling future disputes. Praising Egypt’s readiness to sign the agreement, the US noted that Ethiopia sought internal consultations.

Davison said that the parties need to focus on specific disagreements on hydrological and legal issues “without being sidetracked by the current controversy over the act of filling (water) and . . . by the historical and geopolitical disagreements.”

“If the lawyers and engineers are allowed the space to reach a compromise on these technical issues, that will not solve everything,” he said.

“But that will allow some sort of agreement (so that) the parties can move on and build trust. Eventually, they will be able to address some of the large issues over water sharing and ultimately this historical rivalry over the river.”

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Twitter: @jumanaaltamimi

 


China says US is in ‘no position’ to point fingers over Tibet issues

Updated 7 sec ago
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China says US is in ‘no position’ to point fingers over Tibet issues

  • The Dalai Lama is acqused of engaging in anti-China separatist activities

BEIJING: China’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday that the United States was in “no position” to point fingers at the country on Tibet-related issues, urging Washington to fully recognize the “sensitivity” of the issues.

Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning made the remarks when asked to comment on US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statement on the Dalai Lama’s birthday.

Mao said at a regular press conference that the Dalai Lama “is a political exile who is engaged in anti-China separatist activities under the cloak of religion,” and has “no right” to represent the Tibetan people.


In Hiroshima, search for remains keeps war alive for lone volunteer

Updated 6 min 5 sec ago
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In Hiroshima, search for remains keeps war alive for lone volunteer

  • Volunteers still descend on Okinawa from all over Japan for excavations
  • While many remains were unearthed in the decades following the war, witness accounts suggested there were more burial grounds

NINOSHIMA: Dozens of times a year, Rebun Kayo takes a ferry to a small island across from the port of Hiroshima in search of the remains of those killed by the atomic bomb 80 years ago.
For the 47-year-old researcher, unearthing even the tiniest fragments on Ninoshima Island is a sobering reminder that the war is a reality that persists — buried, forgotten and unresolved.
“When we die, we are interred in places like temples or churches and bid farewell in a ceremony. That’s the dignified way of being sent off,” said Kayo, a researcher at Hiroshima University’s Center for Peace who spends his own time and money on the solo excavations.
After the United States dropped the atomic bomb over Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, instantly killing about 78,000 people and injuring far more, Ninoshima, about 4 km (2.5 miles) from the hypocenter, became a field hospital. Within weeks, some 10,000 victims, both dead and alive, were ferried across the water. Many perished soon after, and when cremations could not keep up, people were buried in mass graves.
While many remains were unearthed in the decades following the war, witness accounts suggested there were more burial grounds. The son of a resident informed Kayo about one area on the island’s northwestern coast in 2014 and from there, he saved up funds and began digging four years later.

NO CLOSURE
In searing heat last weekend, Kayo cut through overgrown brush to return to the spot where he had left off three weeks before. After an hour and a half of digging, he carefully picked out two thumbnail-sized bone fragments from the dirt — additions to the roughly 100 he has unearthed so far.
Every discovery brings home to him the cruelty of war. The pain was never as raw as when Kayo found pieces of a young child’s jaw and tooth earlier this year, he said.
“That hit me really hard,” he said, his white, long-sleeve shirt soaked through with sweat. “That child was killed by the bomb, knowing nothing about the world ... I couldn’t come to terms with it for a while, and that feeling still lingers.”
One day, he plans to take all the fragments to a Buddhist temple, where they can be enshrined.
Kayo’s drive for repeating the gruelling task year after year is partly personal.
Born in Okinawa, where some of the bloodiest battles during World War Two were fought, Kayo himself has three relatives whose remains were never found.
Volunteers still descend on Okinawa from all over Japan for excavations, and because the poison ivy in the forests there is prohibitive for him, Kayo returns the favor on Ninoshima instead.
As long as traces of the dead keep turning up, the war’s proximity is palpable for Kayo.
“People today who don’t know about the war focus only on the recovery, and they move the conversation forward while forgetting about these people here,” he said.
“And in the end, you’ll have people saying, ‘even if you drop an atomic bomb, you can recover’ ... There will always be people who try to justify it in a way that suits them.”


Rescuers on horseback, with dogs search for Texas flood victims

Updated 25 min 21 sec ago
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Rescuers on horseback, with dogs search for Texas flood victims

  • About 30 volunteers on horseback joined mounted police from Austin to support rescue efforts in four towns along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County

HUNT: Volunteers on horseback and others with rescue dogs are combing riverbanks alongside authorities in central Texas, searching for victims of catastrophic floods that have killed more than 100 people.
Rescuers in inflatable motorboats also searched Monday for bodies near Camp Mystic, an all-girls summer camp, where 27 campers and counselors died after being swept away by floodwaters.
Another team collected the children’s belongings from flooded cabins marked by mud lines exceeding five feet (1.5 meters) high.
About 30 volunteers on horseback, many wearing cowboy hats, joined mounted police from Austin to support rescue efforts in four towns along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County.
Michael Duncan, 55, rode Ranger, his dark brown horse, along the river, supporting rescue efforts that have deployed hundreds of searchers along several miles of the waterway.
“Obviously (on horseback)... we can gain more ground. We can get to some areas where people can’t get to as easy,” Duncan told AFP.
The horses easily navigate the hilly terrain, undergrowth and debris left behind after the rain-swollen floodwaters receded.
Perched atop Ranger, Duncan said that the “height advantage” allowed him to scan across the mounds of debris.
Volunteers on foot also scoured the area, detecting foul odours from undergrowth that could indicate decomposing animals or human remains.
They dug through earth piled near trees, using pointed sticks to probe mounds for any signs of bodies.
During their search, they found children’s swimming goggles and a football.
Tom Olson, a rescue dog trainer, deployed his eight-year-old Belgian Malinois, Abby, to assist the search.
Olson, 55, compared the dog’s search abilities to a useful tool, “just like underwater sonar boats, drone, aircraft.”
“The dog will be able to rapidly find a potential victim... lowering the risk to the people that are out here actually trying to do the search and rescue,” he told AFP.
Olson said the work to recover victims’ bodies involved “a mental debt” and “emotional debt” but was necessary to bring “closure to the families that lost (people), as well as closure for the rescuers.”
Electric company crews also worked to restore power poles and cables destroyed by the floods as the Guadalupe River receded to its normal course.
Duncan, the mounted volunteer, said the searches filled him with “a lot of sadness” but added: “It’s also great to see how many people come out... and most everybody is doing this for free.
“That’s pretty inspiring to see.”


Asia number one target of Trump’s tariff letters

Updated 28 min 37 sec ago
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Asia number one target of Trump’s tariff letters

  • South Korea is facing a 25 percent tariff hike on its remaining exports to the United States
  • A close US ally and its biggest investor, Japan has to deal with a 25 percent levy on its key auto industry

TOKYO: Donald Trump sent letters to 14 countries, mainly in Asia, informing them that higher import tariffs will kick in on August 1 unless they reach a deal with the United States.

It is the second time the US president has set a deadline after he postponed tariffs on almost all countries in April for 90 days.

Countries that have large trade imbalances with the United States have been key targets, including Japan ($68.5 billion surplus in 2024), South Korea ($66 billion), Thailand ($45.6 billion) and Indonesia ($17.9 billion).

Here is what Trump’s letters mean for these countries:

South Korea, already burdened by levies on steel and automobiles, is facing a 25 percent tariff hike on its remaining exports to the United States, but is cautiously optimistic for a deal.

Washington “hoped the two sides could reach an agreement before then (August 1),” South Korea’s national security adviser Wi Sung-lac said after meeting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday.

South Korea, one of the world’s biggest shipbuilders, agreed to “coordinate closely” with the United States to achieve “tangible and mutually beneficial outcomes,” he said.

A close US ally and its biggest investor, Japan has to deal with a 25 percent levy on its key auto industry.

It is facing similar tolls on other goods, up from 24 percent announced in April, but better than the “30 percent, 35 percent or whatever the number is that we determine” threatened by Trump last week.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told a cabinet meeting Tuesday that the tariff set out in the letter was “genuinely regrettable,” local media reported.

The reason for not making a deal, he said, was “the Japanese government has avoided making easy compromises, firmly demanding what should be demanded, protecting what should be protected, and has conducted rigorous negotiations.”

Trump has criticized Japan for not opening its market enough to US rice and vehicles.

The Japanese government says it is defending local farmers’ interests and has taken a hardline approach to talks.

“We have no intention of negotiating at the expense of agriculture,” Japan’s tariffs envoy Ryosei Akazawa said Tuesday.

Indonesia, facing 32 percent tariffs, said Tuesday it was optimistic of striking a deal as chief economic minister Airlangga Hartarto headed to the United States to resume talks.

With several weeks breathing room, Jakarta was “very optimistic about the negotiation,” presidential spokesman Hasan Nasbi said.

Indonesia plans to increase its agricultural and energy imports from the United States to finalize an agreement, Airlangga recently said.

Indonesia already announced Monday it had agreed to import at least one million tons of US wheat annually for the next five years, worth $1.25 billion.

Trump announced 49 percent tariffs on Cambodia in April, one of the highest levies in his blitz. Monday’s letter to the country that hosts many Chinese owned factories, reduces this rate to 36 percent.

Prime Minister Hun Manet assured the White House of Cambodia’s “good faith,” with reduced tariffs on 19 categories of US products.

Myanmar and Laos, which face 40 percent tolls, rely on Chinese investments, while their supply chains are closely intertwined with Asia’s largest economy.

Washington has repeatedly highlighted the risk of Chinese products passing through Southeast Asian countries to avoid US tariffs targeting China.

Thailand was told it faces 36 percent levies. Bangkok is offering more access to its market for US agricultural and industrial products, increasing its energy purchases, and boosting orders for Boeing airplanes.

Acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters Tuesday he wanted a “better deal,” adding that “the most important thing is that we maintain good relations with the US.”

Bangkok aims to reduce its US trade surplus by 70 percent within five years, achieving balance in seven to eight years, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira recently told Bloomberg News.

Thai Airways could commit to purchasing up to 80 Boeing planes in the coming years, according to Bloomberg.

Malaysia faces a 25 percent tariff and the trade ministry said Tuesday it would continue negotiations to reach a “balanced, mutually beneficial, and comprehensive trade agreement.”

The world’s second-largest textile manufacturer is facing a 35 percent tariff on its goods but was hoping to sign an agreement by early July.

Textile and garment production accounts for about 80 percent of Bangladesh’s exports, and supplies US brands including Vans, Timberland and The North Face.

Dhaka has proposed to buy Boeing planes and boost imports of US wheat, cotton and oil.

“We have finalized the terms,” Commerce Ministry Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told AFP, adding that negotiators were set to meet Tuesday.

Kazakhstan (25 percent), South Africa (30 percent), Tunisia (25 percent), Serbia (35 percent), and Bosnia (30 percent) are among the other recipients of the letters made public by Trump on Monday.


Chinese kindergarten investigated after children found to have high lead levels, state media says

Updated 39 min 19 sec ago
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Chinese kindergarten investigated after children found to have high lead levels, state media says

  • Online Chinese media outlets said students’ symptoms included stomach and leg pain, loss of appetite and hair loss

HONG KONG: Chinese authorities have arrested eight people after more than 200 children who fell ill in the northwestern province of Gansu were found to have abnormally high levels of lead in their blood, the country’s state broadcaster reported on Tuesday.
The children attended a privately owned kindergarten in Gansu’s Tianshui, which was set up in 2022, and had 251 children enrolled, the broadcaster, CCTV, said. Investigations had found lead in food served to students, it said.
Online media outlets Jimu and The Cover, citing parents, said students’ symptoms included stomach and leg pain, loss of appetite and hair loss.
CCTV said authorities were still investigating the kindergarten’s staff, including its principal and legal representative.
Reuters was not able to establish contact details for the school or verify the information independently.
Food safety has improved in China following a series of scandals, including the 2008 discovery of toxic infant milk, which undermined public trust and consumer confidence.
Inspections by regulators in 2022 found safety issues were more common in the catering industry and agricultural products, according to state media reports.
CCTV said investigators tested 223 samples of food from the school. They found two samples — a red date cake and a corn sausage roll — had lead content of 1052 mg/kg and 1340 mg/kg respectively, far above the official limit of 0.5 mg/kg, it said.
The report said investigators traced the lead to paint whose packaging had clearly marked it as inedible.
So far, 201 children have been admitted to hospital and all families are receiving free medical treatment, the broadcaster said, citing local authorities.
“The incident has caused physical and mental harm to the children and parents of Peixin kindergarten, and we are very sad. We will learn profound lessons,” the broadcaster said, citing local authorities.