Turkey-Greece crisis talks: An exercise in minimal expectations

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This handout picture taken and released on January 25, 2021, by the Turkish Foreign Ministry press office shows Greek diplomat Pavlos Apostolidis (2L), Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal (2R), Turkish President's spokesman Ibrahim Kalin (3R) and their delegation meeting at Dolmabahce palace in Istanbul as talks resumed over Eastern Mediterranean dispute. (AFP/Turkish Foreign Ministry)
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Updated 03 February 2021
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Turkey-Greece crisis talks: An exercise in minimal expectations

  • Following a five-year pause, Greece and Turkey held a meeting in January to address their many disputes
  • In order to give diplomacy a chance, the US and the EU are unlikely to slap further sanctions on Turkey

WASHINGTON D.C.: After a tumultuous four years of Donald Trump’s rule, Joe Biden has entered the White House with a packed domestic agenda, not least the ongoing pandemic and its economic repercussions but also the gnawing issue of race relations. As such, one might expect Biden to place America’s foreign relations on the backburner, at least for the time being.

However, Biden has a strong track record on high-level diplomacy, chalking up several years of engagement with America’s friends and foes, projecting US national interests abroad. Now that he has assumed the highest office in the land, he has pledged to restore America’s image on the world stage.

Coincidentally, Biden’s tenure began just days before long-awaited talks between Greece and Turkey took place in Istanbul — the latest in the protracted territorial dispute which has long threatened the peace of the Mediterranean Sea.




A handout photo released by the Greek National Defence Ministry on August 26, 2020 shows ships of the Hellenic Navy taking part in a military exercise in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, on August 25, 2020. (AFP/Greek Defense Ministry/File Photo)

Delayed by several months, and following a relative easing of tensions, talks between Greece and Turkey are, on the surface at least, an exercise in minimal expectations. Exploratory talks resumed after a pause of five years, picking up where they left off in 2016.

Little progress toward normalizing relations was made between 2002 to 2016, during which time some 60 rounds of talks took place. There is little sign things will be any different this time around.

However, Biden is not Trump. He will need very little time getting up to speed on the dispute in the eastern Mediterranean and his active involvement in the State Department’s handling of the issue is beyond doubt.

Furthermore, Biden will end the Trump-era practice of direct diplomacy between the White House and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, preferring instead to act through the standard institutional channels.

Greece has reason to feel optimistic about the US stance. Biden has on numerous occasions endorsed the Greek position on de-escalation, solving outstanding issues through dialogue and recourse to international law. He is also a supporter of the religious rights of the Greek minority in Turkey, and especially of the role of the patriarchate in Istanbul.

By any measure, Greek-US relations are at their peak, having been strengthened during the Trump years and made stronger through multiple agreements on trade and mutual defense.

FASTFACT

Greece-Turkey

* 11 Turkey’s rank in Global Firepower military strength.

* 29 Greece’s rank in Global Firepower military strength.

* $18.2b Turkey’s annual military budget.

* $7b Greece’s annual military budget.

Biden has also surrounded himself with seasoned diplomats and advisers who worked with him during his eight-year tenure as Barack Obama’s vice president, and whose concern for peace and stability in the region is echoed in Greek rhetoric and policy initiatives.

By contrast, a big question mark hangs over Washington’s Turkey file. Ankara’s flourishing relationship with Moscow and its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system has led to US sanctions that Biden will be in no hurry to lift.

Turkey’s position in NATO has been weakened, leaving member states including France questioning its reliability. Indeed, Washington considers the presence of S-400s on Turkish soil as a threat to its F-35 fighter jets and to NATO defense systems in general.

This is not the only issue blighting the bilateral relationship. Ankara continues to complain about the perceived US role in the 2016 coup attempt and rejects US charges levelled against its state-owned Halkbank concerning its alleged role in helping Iran evade US sanctions.




Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (R) shake hands in front of the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (C) during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit at the Grove hotel in Watford, northeast of London. (AFP/Murat Cetinmuhurda/Turkish Presidential Press Service/File Photo)

More telling still is the view which emerged from talks between Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, and Bjoern Seibert, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s cabinet chief, who “agreed to work together on issues of mutual concern, including China and Turkey,” according to a White House statement.

Linking Turkey with China, the main US geopolitical adversary, is a blow to Erdogan’s hopes of a close relationship with the new Biden administration.

If the US chooses to get involved in the Greece-Turkey dispute, Athens rightly expects to reap the rewards. Yet it would be premature to assume the Biden administration will automatically apply pressure on Turkey.

Firstly, the exploratory talks are informal and require no mediation. Talking directly to one another, even if disagreements are substantial, is preferable to having external sponsors.

Secondly, Turkey is currently trying to recalibrate its relations with the West as well as countries closer to home, including the Gulf states and Israel. The US is likely to give Turkey the benefit of the doubt, at least in the initial stages of the new administration, and give it time to prove its willingness for constructive cooperation.

Thirdly, for all of Turkey’s recent acts of bravado, the country remains a potentially critical ally for the US in an intensely volatile region. Not only does Turkey possess NATO’s second largest army, it also has the strategic positioning to act as a brake on Russia’s ambitions in the Middle East, particularly in Syria.

By the time talks concluded on Jan 25, a few facts stood out.




Turkish President and leader of the Justice and Development (AK) Party Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a parliamentary group meeting on January 27, 2021 at the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (GNAT) in Ankara. (AFP/File Photo)

Although the talks were intended to take place at a merely technical level, the Turkish delegation included Erdogan’s trusted advisor Ibrahim Kalin. The move was likely designed to underscore Turkey’s sincerity in bringing the talks to a successful conclusion, a message that its foreign minister communicated to EU officials the previous day.

Another interesting fact is that both sides followed standard practice by not revealing the content of their talks. This is largely a positive sign, since press leaks are usually aimed at shifting the blame onto the opposite side and undermining prospects for a positive result.

More encouraging still, Greece and Turkey have agreed to proceed with the next round of talks in March, this time in Athens.

Washington, just like Brussels, welcomed the talks and highlighted the importance of dialogue between the two sides. Confirming its attempt to adopt an equidistant approach, the US will continue to encourage both Athens and Ankara to resolve at least some of their disputes.

For Greece, these are limited and specific: the determination of the continental shelf in the Aegean Sea and the delimitation of the two countries’ respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).

For Turkey, on the other hand, the list includes issues such as minority rights, the demilitarization of the Greek Dodecanese islands and the alignment of Greece’s sea borders on the Aegean (6 miles) with its airspace in the same region (10 miles).




Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has reason to be optimistic about the US stance during the Biden administration. (AFP/File Photo)

What is certain, save for any big surprises, is the US (and the EU) will refrain from further sanctions on Turkey.

Pre-existing problems pertaining to the Aegean dispute and the Cyprus issue, the primary bone of contention for many decades, have recently been compounded by zero-sum games on hydrocarbon exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, as well as the migrant and refugee crisis, fueled further by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The fact that other states with interests in the region, such as Cyprus, Israel, France, Italy, Libya and Egypt, are now part of the larger Eastern Mediterranean dispute raises the stakes and pushes Greece and Turkey to adopt maximalist positions.

For all of Washington’s desire to see normalization, it is highly unlikely that concrete progress will be made in the coming months.

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Twitter: @dimitsar


Iranian official warns US against involvement in Israel-Iran conflict

Updated 13 sec ago
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Iranian official warns US against involvement in Israel-Iran conflict

  • Kazem Gharibabadi: Iran has ‘all the necessary options on the table’
DUBAI: Iran’s deputy foreign minister warned against any direct US involvement in the conflict between Israel and Iran, saying Iran had “all the necessary options on the table,” in comments reported by Iranian state media on Thursday.
“If the US wants to actively intervene in support of Israel, Iran will have no other option but to use its tools to teach aggressors a lesson and defend itself ... our military decision-makers have all necessary options on the table,” Kazem Gharibabadi said, according to state media.
“Our recommendation to the US is to at least stand by if they do not wish to stop Israel’s aggression,” he said.

Governments scramble to evacuate citizens from Israel, Iran

Updated 33 min 10 sec ago
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Governments scramble to evacuate citizens from Israel, Iran

  • Foreigners have rushed to leave both countries after Israel launched an unprecedented bombing campaign last Friday
  • Pakistan has shut its border crossings with neighboring Iran, except to Pakistanis wanting to return home

HONG KONG: Governments around the world are attempting to evacuate thousands of their nationals caught up in the rapidly spiraling Israel-Iran conflict, organizing buses and planes and in some cases assisting people crossing borders on foot.

Foreigners have rushed to leave both countries after Israel launched an unprecedented bombing campaign last Friday targeting Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, sparking retaliation from Tehran.

But with Israel’s air space closed and the two countries exchanging heavy missile fire, many people are being evacuated from third countries.

European countries have already repatriated hundreds of their citizens from Israel.

The Czech Republic and Slovakia said Tuesday they had taken 181 people home on government planes.

“It was not possible to send the army plane straight to Israel,” the Czech defense ministry said in a statement, citing the air space closure.

“The evacuees were taken to an airport in a neighboring country by buses. They crossed the border on foot.”

The German government said flights were scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday via Jordan, while Poland said the first of its citizens were due to arrive back on Wednesday.

Greece said it had repatriated 105 of its citizens plus a number of foreign nationals via Egypt, while a private plane with 148 people landed in the Bulgarian capital Sophia on Tuesday.

The US ambassador to Israel on Wednesday announced plans for evacuating Americans by air and sea.

The embassy is “working on evacuation flights & cruise ship departures” for “American citizens wanting to leave Israel,” Ambassador Mike Huckabee posted on X.

Australia has started evacuating around 1,500 citizens from Iran and more than 1,200 from Israel – but missile barrages have made it too risky for civilian aircraft to land in either country, it’s foreign minister said.

“There’s no capacity for people to get civilian aircraft in, it is too risky, and the airspace is closed,” Foreign Minister Penny Wong told national broadcaster ABC.

“We have taken the opportunity to get a small group of Australians out of Israel through a land border crossing.

“We are seeking to try and do more of that over the next 24 hours.”

Pakistan has shut its border crossings with neighboring Iran, except to Pakistanis wanting to return home.

Around 1,000 Pakistanis have fled so far, including at least 200 students.

The foreign ministry said the families of diplomats and some non-essential staff from Iran had been evacuated.

Around 110 Indian students have been evacuated from Iran on a special flight from Armenia, India’s foreign ministry said Thursday.

New Zealand said Thursday it had closed its embassy in Iran, evacuating two staff members and their family to Azerbaijan by land.

“If and when opportunities arise to assist the departure of other New Zealanders in Iran and Israel, we will pursue them with urgency,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters said in a statement.

Japan has ordered military planes to be on standby for around 1,000 Japanese nationals believed to live in Israel, and around 280 in Iran, according to government ministers.

The Japanese embassies in Iran and Israel are preparing to use buses to evacuate citizens to neighboring countries, a government spokesman said, as the war entered its seventh day.


US military move aircraft and ships from bases in the Middle East

Updated 19 June 2025
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US military move aircraft and ships from bases in the Middle East

  • Senior US officials preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days – Bloomberg report
  • Move of aircraft and ships a part of plans as ‘force protection is the priority’

WASHINGTON: The US military has moved some aircraft and ships from bases in the Middle East that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack, two US officials said on Wednesday.

The moves come as President Donald Trump kept the world guessing whether the United States would join Israel’s bombardment of Iran’s nuclear and missile sites, as residents fled its capital on the sixth day of the air assault.

Senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The report, citing the people, noted that the situation is still evolving and could change. Some of the people, according to Bloomberg, pointed to potential plans for a weekend strike.

Speaking to reporters earlier on Wednesday outside the White House, Trump declined to say if he had made any decision on whether to join Israel’s campaign. “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” he said.

Separately, the US embassy in Qatar issued an alert on Thursday temporarily restricting its personnel from accessing the Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military installation in the Middle East, which is located in the desert outside Doha.

The embassy told personnel and US citizens in Qatar to step up vigilance in “an abundance of caution and in light of ongoing regional hostilities.”

The two US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the move of aircraft and ships was a part of plans to protect US forces, but declined to say how many had been moved and where to.

One of the officials said aircraft that were not in hardened shelters had been moved from Al-Udeid base and naval vessels had been moved from a port in Bahrain, where the military’s 5th fleet is located.

“It is not an uncommon practice,” the official added. “Force protection is the priority.”

Reuters was first to report this week the movement of a large number of tanker aircraft to Europe and other military assets to the Middle East, including the deployment of more fighter jets.

An aircraft carrier in the Indo-Pacific is also heading to the Middle East.

Israel launched an air war on Friday after saying it had concluded Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons.

Iran has conveyed to Washington that it will respond firmly to the United States if the latter becomes directly involved in Israel’s military campaign, the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva said on Wednesday.


Iranian missile hits main hospital in southern Israel

Updated 10 min ago
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Iranian missile hits main hospital in southern Israel

  • ‘A direct hit has been reported at Soroka Hospital in Beersheba, southern Israel’
  • Iranian media reported a new barrage of missiles as rivals trade fire for a seventh day

TEL AVIV: An Iranian missile slammed into the main hospital in southern Israel early Thursday, wounding people and causing “extensive damage,” according to the medical facility. Israeli media aired footage of blown-out windows and heavy black smoke.

Another missile hit a high-rise building and several other residential buildings in at least two sites near Tel Aviv. At least 40 people were wounded in the attacks, according to Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue service.

Israel, meanwhile, carried out strikes on Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, in its latest attack on the country’s sprawling nuclear program, on the seventh day of a conflict that began with a surprise wave of Israeli airstrikes targeting military sites, senior officers and nuclear scientists.

Missile hits main hospital in southern Israel

Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, though most have been shot down by Israel’s multi-tiered air defenses, which detect incoming fire and shoot down missiles heading toward population centers and critical infrastructure. Israeli officials acknowledge it is imperfect.

The missile hit the Soroka Medical Center, which has over 1,000 beds and provides services to the approximately 1 million residents of Israel’s south.

A hospital statement said several parts of the medical center were damaged and that the emergency room was treating several minor injuries. The hospital was closed to all new patients except for life-threatening cases. It was not immediately clear how many were wounded in the strike.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the attack and vowed a response, saying: “We will exact the full price from the tyrants in Tehran.”

Many hospitals in Israel activated emergency plans in the past week, converting underground parking to hospital floors and move patients underground, especially those who are on ventilators or are difficult to move quickly.

‘No radiation danger’ after strike on reactor

Israel’s military said its fighter jets targeted the Arak facility and its reactor core seal to halt it from being used to produce plutonium.

“The strike targeted the component intended for plutonium production, in order to prevent the reactor from being restored and used for nuclear weapons development,” the military said. Israel separately claimed to have struck another site around Natanz it described as being related to Iran’s nuclear program.

Iranian state TV said there was “no radiation danger whatsoever” from the attack on the Arak site. An Iranian state television reporter, speaking live in the nearby town of Khondab, said the facility had been evacuated and there was no damage to civilian areas around the reactor.

Israel had warned earlier Thursday morning it would attack the facility and urged the public to flee the area.

Iran has long maintained its program is for peaceful purposes. However, it also enriches uranium up to 60 percent, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to enrich at that level.

Israel is the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East but does not acknowledge having such weapons.

The strikes came a day after Iran’s supreme leader rejected US calls for surrender and warned that any military involvement by the Americans would cause “irreparable damage to them.” Israel had lifted some restrictions on daily life Wednesday, suggesting the missile threat from Iran on its territory was easing.

Already, Israel’s campaign has targeted Iran’s enrichment site at Natanz, centrifuge workshops around Tehran and a nuclear site in Isfahan. Its strikes have also killed top generals and nuclear scientists.

A Washington-based Iranian human rights group said at least 639 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed in Iran and more than 1,300 wounded. In retaliation, Iran has fired some 400 missiles and hundreds of drones, killing at least 24 people in Israel and wounding hundreds.

Arak had been redesigned to address nuclear concerns

The Arak heavy water reactor is 250 kilometers (155 miles) southwest of Tehran.

Heavy water helps cool nuclear reactors, but it produces plutonium as a byproduct that can potentially be used in nuclear weapons. That would provide Iran another path to the bomb beyond enriched uranium, should it choose to pursue the weapon.

Iran had agreed under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers to redesign the facility to relieve proliferation concerns.

The reactor became a point of contention after President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018. Ali Akbar Salehi, a high-ranking nuclear official in Iran, said in 2019 that Tehran bought extra parts to replace a portion of the reactor that it had poured concrete into to render it unusable under the deal.

Israel, in conducting its strike, signaled it remained concerned the facility could be used to produce plutonium again one day.

“The strike targeted the component intended for plutonium production, in order to prevent the reactor from being restored and used for nuclear weapons development,” the Israeli military said in a statement.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, has been urging Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear sites. IAEA inspectors reportedly last visited Arak on May 14.

Due to restrictions Iran imposed on inspectors, the IAEA has said it lost “continuity of knowledge” about Iran’s heavy water production — meaning it could not absolutely verify Tehran’s production and stockpile.

As part of negotiations around the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to sell off its heavy water to the West to remain in compliance with the accord’s terms. Even the US purchased some 32 tons of heavy water for over $8 million in one deal. That was one issue that drew criticism from opponents to the deal.


Israel strikes Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, state television says

Updated 19 June 2025
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Israel strikes Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, state television says

  • Heavy water helps cool nuclear reactors and produces plutonium as a byproduct that can potentially be used in nuclear weapons

DUBAI: Israel has attacked Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, Iranian state television said Thursday.

The report said there was “no radiation danger whatsoever” and that the facility had already been evacuated before the attack.

Israel had warned earlier Thursday morning it would attack the facility and urged the public to flee the area.

The warning came in a social media post on X. It included a satellite image of the plant in a red circle like other warnings that preceded strikes.

The Israeli military said Thursday’s round of airstrikes targeted Tehran and other areas of Iran, without elaborating. It later said Iran fired a new salvo of missiles at Israel and told the public to take shelter.

Israel’s seventh day of airstrikes on Iran came a day after Iran’s supreme leader rejected US calls for surrender and warned that any military involvement by the Americans would cause “irreparable damage to them.” Israel also lifted some restrictions on daily life, suggesting the missile threat from Iran on its territory was easing.

Already, Israel’s campaign has targeted Iran’s enrichment site at Natanz, centrifuge workshops around Tehran and a nuclear site in Isfahan. Its strikes have also killed top generals and nuclear scientists.

A Washington-based Iranian human rights group said at least 639 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed in Iran and more than 1,300 wounded. In retaliation, Iran has fired some 400 missiles and hundreds of drones, killing at least 24 people in Israel and wounding hundreds. Some have hit apartment buildings in central Israel, causing heavy damage.

The Arak heavy water reactor is 250 kilometers southwest of Tehran.

Heavy water helps cool nuclear reactors, but it produces plutonium as a byproduct that can potentially be used in nuclear weapons. That would provide Iran another path to the bomb beyond enriched uranium, should it choose to pursue the weapon.

Iran had agreed under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers to redesign the facility to relieve proliferation concerns.

In 2019, Iran started up the heavy water reactor’s secondary circuit, which at the time did not violate Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Britain at the time was helping Iran redesign the Arak reactor to limit the amount of plutonium it produces, stepping in for the US, which had withdrawn from the project after President Donald Trump’s decision in 2018 to unilaterally withdraw America from the nuclear deal.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, has been urging Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear sites. IAEA inspectors reportedly last visited Arak on May 14.

Due to restrictions Iran imposed on inspectors, the IAEA has said it lost “continuity of knowledge” about Iran’s heavy water production — meaning it could not absolutely verify Tehran’s production and stockpile.

As part of negotiations around the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to sell off its heavy water to the West to remain in compliance with the accord’s terms. Even the US purchased some 32 tons of heavy water for over $8 million in one deal. That was one issue that drew criticism from opponents to the deal.