Biden avoids a further Mideast spiral as Israel and Iran show restraint. But for how long?

Biden avoids a further Mideast spiral as Israel and Iran show restraint. But for how long?
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza could shadow US President Joe Biden right up to Election Day. (Reuters)
Short Url
Updated 21 April 2024
Follow

Biden avoids a further Mideast spiral as Israel and Iran show restraint. But for how long?

Biden avoids a further Mideast spiral as Israel and Iran show restraint. But for how long?
  • The situation remains a delicate one for Biden as he gears up his reelection effort in the face of headwinds in the Middle East, Russia and the Indo-Pacific

WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden can breathe a bit easier, at least for the moment, now that Israel and Iran appear to have stepped back from the brink of tipping the Middle East into all-out war.

Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran and Syria caused limited damage. The restrained action came after Biden urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to temper its response to Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel last week and avoid an escalation of violence in the region. Iran’s barrage of drones and missiles inflicted little damage and followed a suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus this month that killed two generals.
Iran’s public response to the Israeli strikes Friday also was muted, raising hopes that Israel-Iran tensions — long carried out in the shadows with cyberattacks, assassinations and sabotage — will stay at a simmer.
The situation remains a delicate one for Biden as he gears up his reelection effort in the face of headwinds in the Middle East, Russia and the Indo-Pacific. All are testing the proposition he made to voters during his 2020 campaign that a Biden White House would bring a measure of calm and renewed respect for the United States on the world stage.
Foreign policy matters are not typically the top issue for American voters. This November is expected to be no different, with the economy and border security carrying greater resonance.
But public polling suggests that overseas concerns could have more relevance with voters than in any US election since 2006, when voter dissatisfaction over the Iraq War was a major factor in the Republican Party losing 30 House and six Senate seats.
“We see this issue rising in saliency, and at the same time we’re seeing voter appraisals of President Biden’s handling of foreign affairs being quite negative,” said Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. “That combination is not a great one for Biden.”
Biden has staked enormous political capital on his response to the Israel-Hamas war as well as his administration’s backing of Ukraine as it fends off a Russian invasion.
The apparent de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran also comes as the House on Saturday approved $95 billion in wartime aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, a measure that Biden has pushed for as Ukrainian forces run desperately short on arms.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, pushed the package forward after months of delay as he faced the threat of ouster by his party’s right flank. The legislation now awaits a vote in the Senate. The new money would provide a surge of weaponry to the front lines, giving the White House renewed hope that Ukraine can right the ship after months of setbacks in the war.
Biden also has made bolstering relations in the Indo-Pacific a central focus of his foreign policy agenda, looking to win allies and build ties as China becomes a more formidable economic and military competitor.
But Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, have an argument to make that Biden’s policies have contributed to the US dealing with myriad global quandaries, said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington think tank Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
Republicans have criticized Biden’s unsuccessful efforts earlier in his term to revive a nuclear deal with Iran brokered by the Obama administration and abandoned by Trump, saying that would embolden Tehran. The agreement had provided Iran with billions in sanctions relief in exchange for the country agreeing to roll back its nuclear program.
GOP critics have sought to connect Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and they blame the Obama administration for not offering a strong enough response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea.
“You can make an intellectual case, a policy case of how we got from Point A to B to C to D and ended up in a world on fire,” said Goldberg, a national security official in the Trump administration. “People may not care about how we got here, but they do care that we are here.”
Polling suggests Americans’ concerns about foreign policy issues are growing, and there are mixed signs of whether Biden’s pitch as a steady foreign policy hand is resonating with voters.
About 4 in 10 US adults named foreign policy topics in an open-ended question that asked people to share up to five issues for the government to work on in 2024, according to The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll published in January. That’s about twice as many as mentioned the topic in an AP- NORC poll conducted in the previous year.
Further, about 47 percent of Americans said they believe Biden has hurt relations with other countries, according to an AP-NORC poll published this month. Similarly, 47 percent said the same about Trump.
Biden was flying high in the first six months of his presidency, with the American electorate largely approving of his performance and giving him high marks for his handling of the economy and the coronavirus pandemic. But the president saw his approval ratings tank in the aftermath of the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 and they never fully recovered.
Now, Biden finds himself dealing with the uncertainty of two wars. Both could shadow him right up to Election Day.
With the Israel-Hamas war, Republicans pillory him as not being adequately supportive of Israel, and the left wing of his party harshly criticizes the president, who has shown displeasure with Netanyahu’s prosecution of the war, for not doing more to force the Israelis to safeguard Palestinian lives.
After Israel’s carefully calibrated strikes on Iran, Middle East tensions have entered a “gray area” that all parties must navigate carefully, said Aaron David Miller, an adviser on Middle East issues in Republican and Democratic administrations.
“Does what has occurred over the last 10 days strengthen each sides’ risk-readiness or has it made them drop back from the brink and revert into risk aversion?” Miller said. “Israel and Iran got away with striking each other’s territory without a major escalation. What conclusions do they draw from that? Is the conclusion that we might be able to do this again? Or is it we really dodged a bullet here and we have to be exceedingly careful.”
Israel and Hamas appear far away from an agreement on a temporary ceasefire that would facilitate the release of remaining hostages in Hamas-controlled Gaza and help get aid into the territory. It’s an agreement that Biden sees as essential to finding an endgame to the war.
CIA Director William Burns expressed disappointment this past week that Hamas has not yet accepted a proposal that Egyptian and Qatari negotiators had presented this month. He blamed the group for “standing in the way of innocent civilians in Gaza getting humanitarian relief that they so desperately need.”
At the same time, the Biden administration has tried to demonstrate it is holding Israel accountable, imposing new penalties Friday on two entities accused of fundraising for extremist Israel settlers that were already under sanctions, as well as the founder of an organization whose members regularly assault Palestinians.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan and other administration officials met on Thursday with Israel’s minister for strategic affairs, Ron Dermer, and national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi. US officials, according to the White House, reiterated Biden’s concerns about Israel’s plans to carry out an operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where some 1.5 million Palestinians have taken shelter.
Ross Baker, professor emeritus of political science at Rutgers University, said Biden may have temporarily benefited from Israeli-Iranian tensions driving attention away from the deprivation in Gaza.
“Sometimes salvation can come in unexpected ways,” Baker said. “But the way ahead has no shortage of complications.”


Xi and Putin hold phone call on Ukraine war anniversary, state media says

Xi and Putin hold phone call on Ukraine war anniversary, state media says
Updated 58 min 18 sec ago
Follow

Xi and Putin hold phone call on Ukraine war anniversary, state media says

Xi and Putin hold phone call on Ukraine war anniversary, state media says
  • China and Russia earlier declared a ‘no limits’ strategic partnership
  • Beijing has refused to condemn Moscow for its role in the war

BEIJING: China’s President Xi Jinping spoke with his ally Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on Monday, China’s state media reported, on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
China and Russia declared a “no limits” strategic partnership, days before Putin sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022. Xi has met Putin over 40 times in the past decade and Putin in recent months described China as an “ally.”
Beijing has refused to condemn Moscow for its role in the war, straining its ties with Europe and the US as a result.
It was the second call both leaders have held this year, after they discussed how to build ties with US President Donald Trump, along with prospects for a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, in January.
Trump is pushing for a quick deal to end the war in Ukraine, alarming Washington’s European allies by leaving them and Ukraine out of initial talks with Russia and blaming Ukraine for Russia’s 2022 invasion, political gifts for Moscow that could also bring strong economic benefits.


Turkiye says Ukraine-Russia talks should involve ‘both sides’

Turkiye says Ukraine-Russia talks should involve ‘both sides’
Updated 24 February 2025
Follow

Turkiye says Ukraine-Russia talks should involve ‘both sides’

Turkiye says Ukraine-Russia talks should involve ‘both sides’
  • Moscow and Washington have begun a direct dialogue in recent weeks
  • Russian and US officials held talks in Saudi Arabia in a meeting denounced by Volodymyr Zelensky

ANKARA: Turkiye’s foreign minister on Monday said Ankara backed a US initiative to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict but stressed that talks should involve both warring sides.
Moscow and Washington have begun a direct dialogue in recent weeks, against a backdrop of rapprochement between new US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
“We attach great importance to the new US initiative as a result-oriented approach. We believe that a solution can be reached through negotiations in which both sides participate,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told a news conference with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Ankara.
Lavrov’s visit comes on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to the Turkish capital.
Lavrov said Russia is ready for negotiations on the Ukraine war but will only stop fighting when a peace settlement “suits” Moscow.
“We will stop hostilities only when these negotiations produce a firm and sustainable result that suits the Russian Federation,” he said.
Russian and US officials held talks in Saudi Arabia in a meeting denounced by Zelensky, who fears an agreement reached without him.
Fidan, whose country hosted talks between Ukraine and Russia during the start of the war, said Turkiye was ready to take any step that would help bring peace.
“Turkiye is always prepared to assume any facilitating or accelerating role... Our goal is to end this devastating war as soon as possible and to heal the wounds in the region,” he said.
NATO member Turkiye has sought to maintain good relations with its warring Black Sea neighbors, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pitching himself as a key go-between and possible peacemaker between the two.
Ankara has provided drones for Ukraine but shied away from Western-led sanctions on Moscow.
Lavrov is due to meet with Erdogan later in the day.


Russia says blasts at Marseille consulate look like terrorism, TASS reports

Russia says blasts at Marseille consulate look like terrorism, TASS reports
Updated 24 February 2025
Follow

Russia says blasts at Marseille consulate look like terrorism, TASS reports

Russia says blasts at Marseille consulate look like terrorism, TASS reports
  • There was no word on any casualties, and no immediate information on the extent of any damage

MOSCOW: Russia on Monday demanded a full French investigation into explosions at its consulate in Marseille which it said looked like an act of terrorism, state news agency TASS said.
There was no word on any casualties, and no immediate information on the extent of any damage.
“The explosions on the territory of the Russian Consulate General in Marseille have all the hallmarks of a terrorist attack,” TASS quoted Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as saying.
“We demand (from France) exhaustive and prompt measures to investigate, as well as steps to strengthen the security of Russian foreign missions.”
The incident in the southern French city took place on the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war.
French media earlier reported that a blast was heard near the consulate and firemen were at the site.


Thousands in limbo on Thai-Myanmar border after scam center crackdown

Thousands in limbo on Thai-Myanmar border after scam center crackdown
Updated 24 February 2025
Follow

Thousands in limbo on Thai-Myanmar border after scam center crackdown

Thousands in limbo on Thai-Myanmar border after scam center crackdown
  • Authorities from China, Thailand and Myanmar have attempted to dismantle scam centers and illegal online operations on the border
  • Thai and Cambodian police raided a building in a border town and freed 215 foreigners, a senior Thai official said on Sunday

BANGKOK: Thousands of foreigners freed from online scam-operating centers in Myanmar are stuck in limbo on the border with Thailand after a multinational crackdown on the compounds run by criminal gangs, three sources told Reuters on Monday.
In recent weeks, authorities from China, Thailand and Myanmar have attempted to dismantle scam centers and illegal online operations on the border, part of a network of illegal compounds across Southeast Asia where hundreds of thousands have been trafficked by gangs, according to the United Nations.
Thai and Cambodian police raided a building in a border town and freed 215 foreigners, a senior Thai official said on Sunday.
Two Myanmar armed groups – the Karen National Army (KNA) and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) – are currently holding around 7,000 former scam center workers but are unable to send them to Thailand, a Thai security official and two aid workers said.
“Many are stuck in limbo and Thailand’s lack of response is causing great harm,” said one of aid workers, currently on the Thai side of the border. “It is like these victims are being revictimized again.”
Thailand’s foreign ministry said that agencies are currently planning for future handovers of those freed, which would “proceed based on the readiness of the embassies or the countries of origin.”
KNA and DKBA officials did not respond to calls from Reuters.
The majority of these workers are Chinese, with about 1,000 from other foreign countries, according to the aid workers.
Many of the former scam center workers are being held in dire conditions and local authorities are concerned about the lack of sanitation and health facilities, they said.
Thai Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said last Thursday that Thailand doesn’t have the capacity to accept more people unless foreign embassies repatriate those crossing over.
Thailand this month accepted 260 scam center workers, more than half of whom were from Ethiopia, which has no embassy in the country.
Thai authorities also allowed China to repatriate 621 of its nationals via a series of flights from a border town last week.
Scam centers have been operating in the region for years, but face renewed scrutiny after the rescue of Chinese actor, Wang Xing, who was lured to Thailand with the promise of a job, and then abducted and taken to one such center in Myanmar.
Southeast Asian countries have since stepped up efforts to tackle scam centers, including Thailand cutting power, fuel and Internet supply to areas linked with scam centers.
Since March 2022, financial losses incurred by victims of telecom scams in Thailand alone stand at 80 billion Thai baht ($2.4 billion), Thai Police Col. Kreangkrai Puttaisong told reporters on Monday.


Russian veteran haunted by ‘terrible’ memories of Ukraine front

Russian veteran haunted by ‘terrible’ memories of Ukraine front
Updated 24 February 2025
Follow

Russian veteran haunted by ‘terrible’ memories of Ukraine front

Russian veteran haunted by ‘terrible’ memories of Ukraine front
  • In October 2023, Yury signed up with a private paramilitary company as a radio operator in an artillery brigade
  • Yury took part in an assault on the town of Chasiv Yar and on Bogdanivka, which fell to Russia in April 2024

ISTRA, Russia: In his kitchen in a Russian town near Moscow, Yury stirs his tea and tries to settle into a normal routine after months on the front line in Ukraine.
But the memories of a conflict that he says is “more terrible” than anything shown on Russian television still haunt the 39-year-old school employee.
“My wife says I came back bitter,” says Yury, 39, whose military call sign is “Lokomotiv” — a reference to his favorite Moscow football club.
He also brought back reflexes like scanning the sky for drones or not wearing a seat belt in order to evacuate quickly from the car in case of enemy fire.
This last habit has earned him several fines in Istra, 40 kilometers (25 miles) northwest of Moscow, where he lives with his wife and their four-year-old son.
When Russia announced partial mobilization in September 2022, Yury, who already had combat experience from the Russian Caucasus, was sure he would be one of the first to be called up.
“But it was my friends without any experience who were mobilized instead. Why them and not me? I felt then that I should go,” he said.
“My friends told me I was an idiot. ‘Why do you want to go? You have a family, a child, a good job’.”
In October 2023, he signed up with a private paramilitary company as a radio operator in an artillery brigade.
The brigade was based in Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine that was captured by Russian forces in May 2023 after one of the bloodiest battles of the offensive launched by Moscow in February 2022.
Yury took part in an assault on the town of Chasiv Yar, where Ukraine’s troops are still clinging to the outskirts, and on Bogdanivka, which fell to Russia in April 2024.
Since returning, Yury is bored with “daily routine.”
On the front line “there was always something new — you are afraid for the first two weeks and after that it is an adventure,” he said.
His wife Albina, 40, said she had made “a huge fuss” when she found out he was planning to go to Ukraine.
“It was tough. I was afraid of losing him,” she said, sitting on a sofa in their modest apartment.
She said his nine-month deployment felt “like five years.”
“I rushed to my phone every time I received a notification. I was afraid of reading or hearing some bad news. Every morning started with this fear. It was terrible,” she said, crying.
“In reality it was more frightening more terrible than anything they show on television,” Yury said.
“If they showed everything that happens there on television, people might change their mind” about the conflict, he said.
In Istra cemetery there are around 30 graves with Russian flags and pictures of men in military uniform who died in Ukraine.
The area is known as an “Alley of Glory,” like similar corners of cemeteries across Russia, where thousands have died on the front.
The overall toll is a state secret.
Yury points to the grave of a school friend and says in total five of his friends have died on the front.
“The majority die or are injured by shrapnel, from artillery fire or from explosive drones,” he said.
“I think every Russian understands that this war is against the West,” he said, repeating the official rhetoric which portrays the conflict as a wider confrontation initiated by Western countries.
Yury said he was skeptical about the outcome of possible truce talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
“It would be good if they could agree, if the war ended, but it will not finish immediately,” he said.
“A ceasefire will only make the situation worse. We have to get to the end of this!” he said. “If it’s not over by the New Year, I’ll go back.”