Italy’s surprising new political stability under Meloni

Italy has long been famed for the large number of governments, almost 70, it has had in the post-war era. Yet this political instability might be changing under the country’s first female prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, whose administration on Thursday became the fifth-longest-serving in the almost eight-decade history of the Italian Republic.
Certainly, 887 days in power is still relatively short by the standards of governments in many other European nations. It is nonetheless a key milestone in Italy that moved the Meloni government ahead of the first Romano Prodi administration, which lasted 886 days between May 1996 and October 1998.
Moreover, with the next Italian national election potentially not taking place until December 2027, Meloni could serve about half a decade in power before going to the polls. That would be a significant feat, given that the average tenure of Italian prime ministers has been so much shorter in the post-war era.
It would not only see her government best the tenure of the fourth-longest-serving government, led by ex-Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, which served for 1,024 days from February 2014 to December 2016, she might even top the term of the longest-surviving administration, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s second government, which served for 1,412 days between June 2001 and April 2005.
Not only might Meloni be a major exception to the long-standing pattern in Italy of constantly switching political leaders in office, she could also have a reasonable shot at reelection if she can remain in power. Her rightist Brothers of Italy organization is currently polling at just below 30 percent, significantly ahead of the left-of-center Democratic Party, its closest rival.
One of the several ironies of Meloni’s political longevity to date is that few, if any, forecasters saw it coming. When she took office in 2022, many perceived her as little more than a probable footnote in the nation’s history.
Yet she has not only become the country’s key domestic politician; she is also helping Italy to “punch above its weight” on the international stage too. This is in part because of her ideological bond with US President Donald Trump and key members of his team, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who is informally leading the Department of Government Efficiency initiative in Washington.
Musk was a keynote speaker at the Brothers of Italy national political convention in 2023, and Meloni was the only European national leader invited to Trump’s second presidential inauguration in January.

One of the several ironies of Meloni’s political longevity is that few forecasters saw it coming. 

Andrew Hammond

If Meloni’s political stock has not yet peaked, it is likely to happen during Trump’s second presidency. Not only do the two share common policy goals, including clamping down on immigration, she also aspires to lead Europe’s diplomacy with the administration in Washington and has asserted that “the US-EU axis (now) passes through Italy.”
Certainly, Trump has other admirers in Europe, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. However, Meloni believes she is the political “bridge” between the Trump team and Europe as part of a populist alliance between Washington and Rome.
One key test of Meloni’s ambition to become Europe’s interlocutor with the new administration in the US will be how much she shifts her stance on foreign policy in a Trumpian direction. This includes the issue of Ukraine. While she has shown strong support for Kyiv so far, public opinion in Italy is more sympathetic to Russia than it is in much of the rest of Europe.
Meloni’s political calculus on this issue is also shaped by the sympathy that anti-establishment political parties such as The League, which forms part of her Italian coalition, have had for Russia under President Vladimir Putin.
Beyond Ukraine, another area of foreign policy over which Meloni and Trump can bond is China. Trump’s first administration was furious when, in 2019, Italy became the first G7 nation to sign up for Beijing’s massive Belt and Road infrastructure project, a decision that was reversed by Meloni for security and economic reasons.
However, her global leadership credentials are undercut by the fact that Italy is one of the lowest spenders in the NATO alliance on defense. The nation contributed just 1.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2024, which is well below the 2 percent threshold NATO says members should spend, and far from the 5 percent demanded by Trump.
While Meloni’s longevity in office so far owes much to her perceived pragmatism, she has shown some authoritarian tendencies, too. This is reminiscent of her rightist political roots, including prior praise for the former Italian dictator, Benito Mussolini.
Yet Meloni has so far avoided major international controversy. At the same time, she has benefited from the perception that her brand of rightist populism has the political winds blowing in its sails internationally.

• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.