NEW DELHI: Oil prices took a breather in Asian trade on Wednesday after the previous session’s spike of more than 3 percent, as investors awaited developments from US President Donald Trump’s tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

Most-active Brent crude futures rose 1 cent, or 0.01 percent, to $71.69 a barrel by 8:33 Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2 cents, or 0.03 percent, to $69.19 a barrel.

The Brent crude September contract expiring on Wednesday was up 5 cents at $72.56 per barrel.

Both contracts had settled on Tuesday at their highest since June 20.

On Tuesday, Trump said he would start imposing measures on Russia, such as secondary tariffs of 100 percent on trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline.

“The $4 to $5 per barrel of supply-risk premium injected in recent days can be expected to be sustained, unless Putin makes a conciliatory move,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

The US had warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a news conference in Stockholm, where the US was holding trade talks with the EU.

JP Morgan analysts said in a note that while China was not likely to comply with US sanctions, India has signalled it would do so, putting at risk 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports.

The US and the EU averted a trade war with a deal for 15 percent US tariffs on European imports, easing concerns about the impact of trade tensions on economic growth and offering support to oil prices.

In Venezuela, foreign partners of state oil company PDVSA are still waiting for US authorization to operate in the sanctioned country after talks last week, which could return some supply to the market, so easing pressure for prices to rise.

“The oil market is keeping an eye on the US trade deals and talks, and on the Fed, but those are marginal influences on sentiment,” Hari added.

Despite President Donald Trump’s objections, the US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting later on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund raised global growth forecasts slightly for 2025 and 2026, but warned the world economy faced major risks, such as a rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tension and larger fiscal deficits. 

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council inflation rates remained stable throughout the second quarter of 2025 despite heightened geopolitical instability, a new report showed.

According to the latest analysis by Kuwait-based non-banking firm Kamco Invest, Dubai recorded a monthly inflation rate of 2.4 percent in June, unchanged from May, followed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, both registering inflation rates of 2.3 percent in June.

This aligns with recently released data from the Statistical Center for the GCC, which shows that the region’s average inflation rate fell to 1.7 percent in 2024, down from 2.2 percent in 2023.

It also supports the fact that the GCC economies are expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 4 percent, as rising oil output and resilient non-oil sector activity offset global trade headwinds, according to a recent economic update by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales prepared with Oxford Economics.

“The war in the Middle East affected crude oil prices that surged to almost $79 per barrel. But quietly receded in the subsequent weeks as OPEC+ accelerated the output hikes aiming to unwind the full 2.2 mb/d by September-2025,” Kamco said.

It added: “Brent crude oil is trading at $68.4 per barrel, 8.3 percent lower than its level at the end of 2024. The quarter also witnessed the start of the global tariff war that affected financial markets and expectations for future economic growth.”

The Kamco report also said that the conflict’s limited impact on regional inflation was largely because increases in commodity and shipping costs occurred gradually over time, rather than through sudden spikes.

The ongoing application of prudent economic policies across the GCC has also played a key role in controlling inflation, keeping rates well below those in other parts of the Middle East and the world.

Inflationary pressures in the US intensified in June, with the annual rate climbing to 2.7 percent, the highest in five months, up from 2.4 percent in May. The uptick was primarily attributed to rising prices in core goods, which hit their highest level in two years.

“These increases are largely attributed to new tariffs affecting household furnishings, appliances, electronics, apparel, and toys. Meanwhile, the US consumer price index registered a m-o-m (month-on-month) growth of 0.3 percent in June-2025. Excluding the typically volatile food and energy sectors, US core inflation increased by 0.2 percent m-o-m, with the annualized core rate rising to 2.9 percent in June,” Kamco said.

“It is important to highlight that prior to this uptick, US inflation had been on a generally downward trajectory. Similarly, inflation in the Eurozone rose in June-2025, reaching 2.0 percent, down from 2.5 percent in June-2024 but slightly higher than May-2025’s rate of 1.9 percent. The Services sector experienced the highest y-o-y growth at 3.3 percent, followed by the Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco category, which rose by 3.1 percent,” it added.

Earlier in July, Kamco Invest said that foreign investors sharply increased their exposure to Gulf stock markets in the second quarter of 2025, with net inflows surging 50 percent compared to the previous three months to reach $4.2 billion. 

The momentum extended the streak of net foreign inflows into GCC equities to six consecutive quarters, with total net purchases in the first half of 2025 rising 39.8 percent year on year to $7 billion.