Ceasefire agreement has raised hopes for easing tensions in South Asia
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The latest ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan signifies a thaw in the relations between the two nuclear-armed nations. The development has raised hopes of the two countries restoring full diplomatic relations that were downgraded after India’s unilateral annexation of the disputed state of Kashmir some two years ago.
But it’s still too early to expect a complete normalization of relations between the two hostile neighbors with the main causes of tension remaining unresolved. The breakthrough came after a virtual meeting this week between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) of the two countries.
The two sides recommitted themselves to the 2003 ceasefire arrangement at the Line of Control and agreed to address the ‘core issues’ that could undermine peace and stability. It was the first contact between the two militaries after the breakdown of relations following the Indian incursion inside Pakistan in February 2019.
Both sides have also agreed to utilize existing mechanisms of hotline contact and border flag meetings to resolve any unforeseen situations or misunderstandings. The two militaries would also be pulling back their offensive units from the Line of Control.
India and Pakistan had signed a ceasefire agreement in 2003 that worked to some extent for the first few years in ceasing hostilities but fell apart with the rising tension over Kashmir. The recommitment to implement on the accord is seen as a major breakthrough.
It apparently took months of secret diplomacy between New Delhi and Islamabad and nudging from some outside actors that got the ceasefire deal. The new US administration has welcomed the development and has urged the two sides to resume talks to peacefully resolve their outstanding problems.
Curiously, the thaw in India and Pakistan relations came as New Delhi and Beijing agreed to disengage their forces in Ladakh. The standoff between Indian and Chinese forces in the sensitive region was ominous given emerging regional geopolitics.
Zahid Hussain
Interestingly, the development came on the second anniversary of the Indian warplanes intruding into Pakistani territory and Pakistan downing an India air force jet. It was the first time since the 1971 war that Indian jets intruded into Pakistan territory. It was a brazen military offensive though the Narendra Modi government claims it was a pre-emptive strike against alleged militant camps and not military action.
The situation worsened after India revoked the autonomous status of the disputed state of Kashmir in August 2019. In retaliation, Pakistan called back its High Commissioner from Delhi. There has not been any official level contact between them since and trade between the two countries has come down to a bare minimum.
The past year saw tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations taking a more serious turn with clashes along the LoC exacting heavy casualties on both sides. According to Pakistani officials, Indian troops committed more than 2,900 ceasefire violations across the restive Line of Control (LoC) in 2020, leaving many civilians dead and wounded. The clashes have also killed some two dozen Pakistani soldiers. The number of casualties on the Indian side have also been significant. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of infiltrating militants in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Mounting tension triggered a war of words between New Delhi and Islamabad. Both sides accused each other of border escalation. In December last year Pakistan’s foreign minister warned of a possible Indian military misadventure in the cover of a so-called surgical strike. It was not the first time that Islamabad had cautioned about India’s aggressive designs, but the latest warning sounded most alarming.
However, things have dramatically changed since the ceasefire announcement. The guns have gone silent now at what has been described as a potential flashpoint for a wider regional conflagration. It has brought with it a sigh of relief to the people living along the LoC who were the major victims of a relentless exchange of fire between the two forces. There are also some tangible signs of easing of tension with the lowering of hostile rhetoric. Both sides are cautiously optimistic about moving forward.
According to Indian media reports, New Delhi may drop its refusal to attend South Asia Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) summit conference scheduled to be held in Pakistan. In that case, there would be a possibility of the Indian prime minister coming to Pakistan. But there has not been any official confirmation in this regard.
Curiously, the thaw in India and Pakistan relations came as New Delhi and Beijing agreed to disengage their forces in Ladakh. The standoff between Indian and Chinese forces in the sensitive region was ominous given emerging regional geopolitics. Ladakh lies at the confluence of three nuclear states: India, China and Pakistan.
The latest development is seen as shifting sands of regional geopolitics. The main issue now is whether India will agree to resume constructive engagement on the Kashmir dispute, which remains the major source of tension between the two countries.
– Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
