The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza

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Demonstrators protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and call for new elections in the latest weekly protest against his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, in Tel Aviv, on Feb. 17, 2024. (AP/File)
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Updated 06 March 2024
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The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza

  • Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements
  • Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan

GAZA STRIP: Over the last five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that was clear from the start of the war and will ultimately determine its outcome: It can either try to annihilate Hamas, which would mean almost certain death for the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza, or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to claim a historic victory.
Either outcome would be excruciating for Israelis. Either would likely seal an ignominious end for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career. And either might be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, at least in public, denies there is any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, saying victory could come “in a matter of weeks.”
As long as the war rages, he can avoid early elections that polls strongly suggest would remove him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to delay an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, has reason to believe that as long as he holds the hostages, he can eventually end the war on his terms.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified a chink in the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate its people, especially soldiers, being held captive, and will go to extraordinary lengths to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to drag large numbers of hostages into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would be unable to rescue them, and where they could serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was accomplished, he had a powerful bargaining chip that could be traded for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top leaders serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No amount of 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the strategy’s brutal logic.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles) and some are several stories underground, guarded by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean almost certain death for the hostages that likely surround them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even if Israel somehow kills Sinwar and other top leaders, others would move up the ranks and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel said.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, all of whom were aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually bring about the release of the roughly 100 hostages, and the remains of 30 others, still held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former top general and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, said anyone suggesting the remaining hostages could be freed without a ceasefire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire, only to see Israel resume its attempt to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the idea of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s better to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s government is under mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who fear time is running out, and the wider public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most important ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, in part because of Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The war threatens to ignite other fronts across the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the phased release of all of the captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and might even hold victory parades. With time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have different opinions on whether it was all worth it.
A rare wartime poll last year found rising support for Hamas, with over 40 percent of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That support would only grow if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can keep fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and demolish more tunnels, while carefully avoiding areas where it thinks the hostages are held.
But at some point, Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country’s history, or it will be made for them.


‘Many more’ Conservative MPs back UK govt stance on Israel: MP

Updated 24 May 2025
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‘Many more’ Conservative MPs back UK govt stance on Israel: MP

  • Mark Pritchard: PM ‘on right side of history’ after joint statement condemning Gaza war
  • Britain must recognize Palestinian state in ‘huge symbol of support’

LONDON: “Many more” Conservative MPs in the UK privately support calls by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and British allies for Israel to end its Gaza war, a Conservative MP has said.

Mark Pritchard told LBC that Starmer is on the “right side of history” and “humanity,” The Independent reported on Saturday.

However, Pritchard refused to criticize Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who questioned new British sanctions on Israeli settlers and a joint UK-France-Canada statement on Gaza this week.

The leaders of the three countries condemned “egregious” Israeli actions in Gaza and threatened to take “concrete actions” if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fails to change course.

In response, Netanyahu accused the UK, France and Canada of being on the “wrong side of justice.”

Pritchard, who describes himself as strongly pro-Israel, told LBC: “Half the population of Gaza are children. They are being literally bombed to bits every single day. They are being slowly starved.

“It’s absolutely right the UK prime minister, who so happens to be a Labour prime minister right now, would stand up on the right side.

“I push it back to the Israeli prime minister. I think Keir Starmer and those standing up for the children of Gaza are on the right side of history, the right side of humanity and are making the right moral judgment.”

Pritchard said he now believes in the necessity of Britain recognizing a Palestinian state. “It may be symbolic, but I think it will be a huge symbol of support both for the Israelis that want to see that and also for the Palestinians. But the key point at the moment is the Israeli government need to be held to account,” he added.

“I support the UK prime minister and many more, by the way, in the British Conservative Party, are coming up to me privately at the moment.”

On Friday, Badenoch said the government’s new actions targeting Israeli settlers and trade relations with the country are not the “right way” to resolve differences with Netanyahu.

Pritchard told LBC: “I’m coming on to support Kemi on the comments on antisemitism and supporting the prime minister on his strong stand, finally, on what’s going on in Gaza.”


UAE hits record May temperature of 51.6C

Updated 24 May 2025
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UAE hits record May temperature of 51.6C

  • The highest temperature recorded over the country was 51.6C in Sweihan (Al Ain)
  • Scientists have shown that recurring heatwaves are a clear marker of global warming

DUBAI: The United Arab Emirates breached its May temperature record for the second day in a row, hitting 51.6 degrees Celsius on Saturday, according to the National Center of Meteorology.

“The highest temperature recorded over the country today is 51.6C in Sweihan (Al Ain) at 13:45 UAE local time (0945 GMT),” the office said in a post on X, 1.2C hotter than the temperature recorded on Friday in the Abu Dhabi area.

Both those temperatures exceeded a previous record for the month of 50.2 Celsius recorded in May 2009, according to the meteorology office.

The desert nation lies in one of the planet’s hottest regions and one which is particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Scientists have shown that recurring heatwaves are a clear marker of global warming and that these heatwaves are set to become more frequent, longer and more intense.

The number of extremely hot days has nearly doubled globally in the past three decades.

According to a 2022 Greenpeace study, the Middle East is at high risk of water and food scarcity as well as severe heat waves as a result of climate change.

The report, which focused on six countries, found the region was warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, making its food and water supplies “extremely vulnerable” to climate change.


Nine of Gazan doctor’s 10 children killed in Israeli air strike

Updated 24 May 2025
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Nine of Gazan doctor’s 10 children killed in Israeli air strike

  • Dr. Alaa Al-Najjar also saw her husband, Dr. Hamdi Al-Najjar, critically injured
  • Couple’s only surviving child, 11-year-old boy, was severely wounded

LONDON: A pediatrician working in southern Gaza has lost nine of her 10 children in an Israeli air strike that hit her family home, in what fellow medics have described as an “unimaginable” tragedy.

Dr. Alaa Al-Najjar, who was on duty at the Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Younis at the time of the strike, also saw her husband, Dr. Hamdi Al-Najjar, critically injured.

The couple’s only surviving child, an 11-year-old boy, was severely wounded and underwent emergency surgery on Friday, according to reports.

“This is the reality our medical staff in Gaza endure. Words fall short in describing the pain,” said Dr. Muneer Alboursh, director general of Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry. “In Gaza, it is not only healthcare workers who are targeted, Israel’s aggression goes further, wiping out entire families.”

Graphic footage shared by Palestinian Civil Defense, and verified by media outlets including the BBC, showed the remains of small children being pulled from the rubble of a collapsed building near a petrol station in Khan Younis.

British surgeon Dr. Graeme Groom, who is volunteering at Nasser hospital, said Dr Al-Najjar’s surviving son was his final patient of the day.

“He was very badly injured and seemed much younger as we lifted him onto the operating table,” he said in a video posted to social media.

Groom added that the child’s father, also a physician at the same hospital, had “no political and no military connections and doesn’t seem to be prominent on social media,” calling the strike “a particularly sad day.”

He continued: “It is unimaginable for that poor woman, both of them are doctors here… and yet his poor wife is the only uninjured one, who has the prospect of losing her husband.”

Relative Youssef Al-Najjar, speaking to AFP, made an emotional plea: “Enough. Have mercy on us. We plead to all countries, the international community, the people, Hamas, and all factions to have mercy on us. We are exhausted from the displacement and the hunger.”

Dr. Victoria Rose, another British doctor at the hospital, said the family had lived near a petrol station and speculated that the strike may have caused or been worsened by a large explosion. “That is life in Gaza. That is the way it goes in Gaza,” she said.

The Israel Defence Forces did not comment directly on the strike, but in a general statement said it had hit more than 100 targets across Gaza in a 24-hour period.

The Hamas-run health ministry reported at least 74 Palestinian deaths in that time frame alone.

The UN has warned that Gaza may be entering its “cruelest phase” of the war, with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres denouncing Israel’s restrictions on aid as exacerbating a humanitarian catastrophe.

Although Israel partially lifted its blockade this week, allowing limited aid to enter, the UN says the deliveries fall far short of the 500–600 trucks of supplies needed daily to meet basic needs for the territory’s 2.1 million people.

Since Israel launched its offensive after Hamas militants stormed into Israel, killing around 1,200 people and abducting 251 others, on Oct. 7, 2023, more than 53,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which includes women and children in its total but does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.


Erdogan, Syria’s Sharaa hold talks in Istanbul

Updated 24 May 2025
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Erdogan, Syria’s Sharaa hold talks in Istanbul

  • Video footage on Turkish television showed Erdogan shaking hands with Sharaa
  • The two countries’ foreign ministers also attended the talks

ISTANBUL: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was holding talks with Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Istanbul on Saturday, news channel CNN Turk and state media said, broadcasting video of the two leaders greeting each other.

The visit comes the day after US President Donald Trump’s administration issued orders that it said would effectively lift sanctions on Syria. Trump had pledged to unwind the measures to help the country rebuild after its devastating civil war.

Video footage on Turkish television showed Erdogan shaking hands with Sharaa as he emerged from his car at the Dolmabahce Palace on the shores of the Bosphorus Strait in Turkiye’s largest city.

The two countries’ foreign ministers also attended the talks, as well as Turkiye’s defense minister and the head of the Turkish MIT intelligence agency, according to Turkiye’s state-owned Anadolu news agency.

The Syrian delegation also included Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, according to Syrian state news agency SANA.

MIT chief Ibrahim Kalin and Sharaa this week held talks in Syria on the Syrian Kurdish YPG militant group laying down its weapons and integrating into Syrian security forces, a Turkish security source said previously.


US strike on Yemen kills Al-Qaeda members: Yemeni security sources

Updated 24 May 2025
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US strike on Yemen kills Al-Qaeda members: Yemeni security sources

  • “Five Al-Qaeda members were eliminated,” said a security source in Abyan
  • Washington once regarded the group as the militant network’s most dangerous branch

DUBAI: Five Al-Qaeda members have been killed in a strike blamed on the United States in southern Yemen, two Yemeni security sources told AFP on Saturday.

“Residents of the area informed us of the US strike... five Al-Qaeda members were eliminated,” said a security source in Abyan province, which borders the seat of Yemen’s internationally-recognized government in Aden.

“The US strike on Friday evening north of Khabar Al-Maraqsha killed five,” said a second source, referring to a mountainous area known to be used by Al-Qaeda.

The second security source added that, though the names of those killed in the strike were not known, it was believed one of Al-Qaeda’s local leaders was among the dead.

Washington once regarded the group, known as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), as the militant network’s most dangerous branch.

Born in 2009 from the merger of Al-Qaeda’s Yemeni and Saudi factions, AQAP grew and developed in the chaos of Yemen’s war, which since 2015 has pitted the Iran-backed Houthi militants against a Saudi-led coalition backing the government.

Earlier this month, the United States agreed a ceasefire with the Houthis, who have controlled large swathes of Yemen for more than a decade, ending weeks of intense American strikes on militant-held areas of the country.

The Houthis began firing at shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in November 2023, weeks after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, prompting military strikes by the US and Britain beginning in January 2024.

The conflict in Yemen has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, although fighting decreased significantly after a UN-negotiated six-month truce in 2022.