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LONDON: Researchers at the American University in Cairo have identified a disturbing link between rising temperatures and increases in cases of breast, cervical, ovarian and uterine cancers among women in the Middle East and North Africa region.

The key message of a study that has identified “a significant correlation between prolonged exposure to high ambient temperatures and all four cancer types” is as simple as it is urgent, said Wafa Abu El-Kheir-Mataria, senior researcher at the Institute of Global Health and Human Ecology at the American University in Cairo.

“Our findings make it clear that climate change is not a distant or abstract threat. It is already impacting women’s health in tangible ways,” said Dr. Kheir-Mataria, co-author with Prof. Sungsoo Chun, associate director of the institute, of a new paper published in the journal Frontiers in Public Health.

“In the MENA region, rising temperatures are significantly correlated with increased prevalence and mortality of several cancers affecting women.”

She added: “This evidence highlights the urgent need to integrate climate risks into cancer control strategies today, not tomorrow.”

The study looked at 17 countries in the MENA region and examined how increasing average temperatures coincided with how often women were getting certain cancers and dying from them.

The connection between rising temperatures and increasing cases of the four types of cancer was found to be significant in just six countries — Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Syria and Jordan.

The finding that the four wealthy Gulf states featured significantly was a “very important observation,” said Dr. Kheir-Mataria, and one that merits urgent further investigation.

“The Gulf countries have some of the strongest healthcare systems in the region,” she said.

“However, what our findings may reflect is that even high-performing systems are now facing new, complex challenges brought about by climate change — challenges that may not yet be fully addressed within traditional cancer control strategies.”

The Gulf states, she added, “are also among those experiencing the most extreme and rapid increases in temperature, which can amplify environmental exposures that are not always visible or easily managed, such as air pollution or heat-related physiological stress.”

At the same time, “social and behavioral factors, like health-seeking behaviors or cultural barriers to early screening, may continue to influence outcomes despite strong system capacity.”

Dr Kheir-Mataria wants “more in-depth, country-specific research in countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Our study is an important starting point, but it has clear limitations. We worked with publicly available data and focused primarily on the relationship between temperature and cancer outcomes, while controlling for income.

“However, many other important factors such as air pollution levels, urban heat islands, occupational exposure, genetic predispositions, and healthcare utilization patterns were beyond the scope of this analysis.”

To fully understand all the factors at play, “we need access to more granular data and the opportunity to examine these additional variables in context.

“That’s why we are actively seeking local partnerships with research institutions, ministries of health, and environmental agencies and funding to support collaborative studies.”

The Gulf states, she said, “are uniquely positioned to lead the way in advancing global understanding of climate-related health risks, and we would be honored to work together to generate evidence that informs national policy and protects women’s health in the face of climate change.”

Meanwhile, it is necessary to “acknowledge that environmental stressors such as rising temperatures and air pollution can exacerbate cancer risks, particularly for vulnerable groups such as women, and incorporate climate change adaptation into cancer control plans.”

Adaptation strategies “might include strengthening early detection and screening services in high-risk areas, ensuring healthcare facilities remain accessible during climate-related disruptions, and integrating environmental risk monitoring into public health planning.”

Dr Kheir-Mataria said this “involves cross-sectoral collaboration between health, environmental, and planning ministries to build climate resilient healthcare systems.”

The study combined two decades of data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Global Burden of Disease with statistics on temperature change from the FAOSTAT Climate Change database of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, for every year from 1998 to 2019.

Applying a method of statistical analysis called multiple linear regression, which adjusted results to take account of socioeconomic differences between countries that might influence health outcomes, the researchers were able to identify “a clear pattern: where temperatures rose, cancer rates and deaths often rose too.”

This was expressed in the percentage increase in cases and deaths for each degree Celcius the temperature rose. For example, the largest increase in deaths was found in ovarian cancer, with an overall average increase across the 17 countries of 0.33 percentage points per degree.

But increased numbers of deaths from ovarian cancer were higher than average in Jordan and the UAE (both 0.48).

Although the overall increase in deaths from cervical cancer was the lowest of the four diseases (0.171), the increase was higher than average in Iran (0.3), Jordan (0.45), and Qatar (0.61).

In Saudi Arabia, significant increases in cases were detected in ovarian (0.29) and uterine (0.36) cancers. An above-average increase in deaths in the Kingdom was found in breast cancer (0.31). 

The paper points out that, with a temperature rise of 4 C expected by 2050, “the MENA region is particularly at risk due to global warming.”

In 2019, 175,707 women in the region died from cancer. But, Dr Kheir-Mataria said, it was not possible to simply multiply the study’s findings by four to predict the number of additional cancer deaths by 2050 related to rising temperatures.

“This is a question we fully understand the interest in, but we must be very careful not to overstate what our data can tell us,” she said.

“Our study found a statistical association between rising temperatures and cancer deaths among women. However, these are correlations, not predictions, and they were based on historical data over a specific period, with many other contributing factors.

“Projecting the number of additional deaths by 2050 based on a hypothetical 4 C rise would go beyond what our data allows, as it would require complex modelling that includes population growth, healthcare system changes, adaptation measures, and other environmental or behavioral variables.

“We did not conduct such a projection in this study, and doing so responsibly would require a separate research design.”

She added: “That said, the potential implications of a 4 C increase are certainly concerning, particularly in countries already experiencing extreme heat.

“This is why we strongly advocate for further research, including dynamic modelling and country-level analyses, to understand and prepare for the possible long-term health impacts of climate change, especially on women.”