The need for mediators increasingly felt in intra-Afghan deadlock

With levels of violence rising in Afghanistan and intra-Afghan negotiations in Doha deadlocked since two months, scattered calls for boycotting peace talks with the Taliban have been raised. 

Besides, Afghanistan’s second Vice President Sarwar Danish and certain Afghan lawmakers have urged US President-elect Joe Biden to review the peace agreement signed by President Donald Trump’s administration with the Taliban in Doha on Feb. 29. This would put pressure on the Taliban as the deal hasn’t led to a reduction in violence by the latter or paved the way for a ceasefire. 

As for Taliban, the group argued it hasn’t violated the deal with the US as the Afghan government was not party to it and a ceasefire with Kabul will have to be decided in intra-Afghan negotiations. 

All sides in the Afghan conflict have been expressing frustration over the lack of progress in the ongoing Doha talks that began on Sept. 12, and blame each other for the stalemate. The failure of Kabul and Taliban negotiators, who are meeting without the presence of any non-Afghans or mediators, to agree even on the basic framework of the negotiations has raised concern about the uncompromising position adopted by the two sides.  

In fact, the need for mediators is increasingly being felt even though the two sides, following a Taliban proposal, had decided to keep non-Afghans out of the peace negotiations to make the process truly Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. 

The US had offered to mediate and its special envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad-- who warned recently that high levels of violence could threaten the Taliban-US peace deal-- has been actively engaged in the mediation effort, more so with the Taliban. As host of the talks, Qatar due to its considerable influence on Taliban has also been trying to help overcome the impasse. 

Pakistan, on account of its old ties with Taliban is often asked to play a role in removing the hurdles impeding the Afghan peace process. However, nothing has worked, much to the dismay of war weary Afghans and their well-wishers.  

The escalating violence hasn’t and is unlikely at this stage, to cause the breakdown of the Doha talks, but it may have stiffened the position of the Afghan government and made a breakthrough difficult. 

Kabul is hoping to gain leverage in the talks in case the Biden administration puts pressure on Taliban to reduce violence as the Doha deal is condition based and the complete withdrawal of US-led foreign forces is linked with fulfilment of commitments made by Taliban.

The need for mediators is increasingly being felt even though the two sides, following a Taliban proposal, had decided to keep non-Afghans out of the peace negotiations to make the process truly Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. 

Rahimullah Yusufzai

In a recent quarterly report to the US Congress, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said attacks against Afghan forces and civilians were 50 percent higher in the three months to the end of September when compared to the previous quarter. The US watchdog reported 2,561 civilian casualties this quarter, including 876 deaths, up 43 percent from the April to June period, and characterized these attacks as ‘above seasonal norms.’  

Two terrorist attacks in particular caused much anguish in Afghanistan. Both targeted educational institutions, including Kabul University, and resulted in nearly 50 deaths. As mostly students were killed and injured, the attacks were termed attempts to disrupt educational activities and extinguish the hopes of young Afghans for the future.  

Though both attacks were claimed by the Daesh Khorasan chapter, some government officials led by first Vice President Amrullah Saleh insisted these were carried out by Taliban. After having promptly issued statements denying Taliban involvement and even condemning the attacks, the accusations against the group contributed further to the deep mistrust between the two sides. 

Questions are being asked about whether rival Afghans can be trusted to work together for peace after having fought each other for years. 

Despite his defeat in the US election, Trump seems determined in line with his announcements to continue withdrawing troops from Afghanistan until the end of his term in January 2021. By firing defence secretary Mark Esper and replacing him with Christopher Miller, Trump gave an indication of his withdrawal plans as Miller shares his views and has recently said it’s time to bring American troops home. There are reports that almost half of US troops will be pulled out by Jan. 15 to leave only 2,500 in Afghanistan. 

Many Afghans, mostly supporters of President Ashraf Ghani’s government, are attaching hopes to Biden to make Taliban accountable for their violence and to take back concessions granted by Trump to the group. 

As for Biden, he said during his election campaign that he would withdraw US troops but was not averse to keeping some counter-terrorism forces in Afghanistan. This may not be acceptable to Taliban who want full implementation of the Doha agreement which called for a complete withdrawal of all foreign forces by May 2021.  

Biden also seems to have no real interest in committing to defend the Afghan government forever. 

In an interview, he was quoted as saying the US would bear “zero responsibility” in case Taliban captured power after the withdrawal of US troops because his primary responsibility as president would be to protect America’s national interest.

–  Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998.

Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1