RIYADH: As Syria navigates a precarious path away from the decades-long rule of the Assad dynasty, Ghassan Ibrahim, a London-based Syria analyst, says cautious optimism defines the moment.

Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” the Arab News current affairs show that dives deep into regional developments with leading policymakers and analysts, Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa.

“Yes, I’m optimistic, but cautiously optimistic,” he said. “The situation in Syria is not that easy. President Bashar Assad, when he left, literally made sure that all the institutions in Syria were not functioning. He stayed in power until the last day. And after that, when he left, literally, he left the country on its knees.”

Four months into a new political chapter, Syria’s fledgling government faces enormous hurdles: institutional collapse, brain drain, poverty, insecurity and a sanctions regime that continues to paralyze the economy.

“There is big hope,” Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen, “but the question is: Where will they bring all these resources from, to make them function as in any other government around the world?”

The economic picture is bleak. Over 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, and basic infrastructure has either collapsed or is running at a fraction of capacity. Ibrahim said the country’s rich natural resources — oil, gas, and minerals — remain largely idle. And a mass exodus of skilled professionals and entrepreneurs over the last 14 years has left a human capital vacuum.

“Literally, there is not any good environment to tell to the people come back — especially the talented ones, especially the investors, and as well, the people who can participate in the new reform,” he said.

Yet Ibrahim insists that the absence of large-scale sectarian violence after Assad’s fall is in itself a major achievement. “No one was thinking that Syria will end up after Assad leaves without a huge sectarian war,” he said.

Though there have been some flare-ups — most notably a wave of killings in the western coastal region in early March — Ibrahim said the response has so far avoided mass escalation.

“If we look at the full picture, it’s something promising, but requires a lot of work,” he added.

President Al-Sharaa’s first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, and soon to the UAE, are not just symbolic, says Ibrahim — they are strategic.

“He tried to relocate Syria within a new alliance — an alliance of modernity, stability and open-minded policies,” he said, noting the president’s praise for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

Al-Sharaa’s upcoming visit to the UAE, he added, could prove essential in Syria’s reintegration with the region. “Syria needs now friends and brothers to help them, to lead, to guide them,” said Ibrahim. “The UAE is able through its wide network internationally to open the door, to reintroduce the new Syria to the world.”

He also said the visits send a reassuring message that Syria does not wish to destabilize the region. “Syria will be productive and active and be part of this kind of alliance between the regional powers,” he added.

On the horizon is a visit to Turkiye, a former adversary now positioned as a “typical friend,” in Ibrahim’s words. But the relationship is more complicated. While ties with Ankara could help stabilize Syria’s north and resolve Kurdish tensions, Ibrahim warned that Turkish involvement risks aggravating fears in Israel and reintroducing regional rivalries into Syrian soil.

“We’ve noticed the involvement of Turkiye has caused two troubles somehow: With the Kurdish internally and with Israel,” he said.

The prospect of renewed conflict with Israel looms large. Southern Syria has seen a spike in Israeli airstrikes targeting what it says are weapons depots and military infrastructure. But Ibrahim said the new Syrian leadership is avoiding provocation.

“They are trying to, well, calculate the risk. They don’t want to behave like a militia. They want to be a state,” he said. “We’d rather leave some — there is some, I think, second-track diplomacy open now between Syria and Israel.”

According to Ibrahim, there is growing recognition in Damascus that stability with Israel is preferable to brinkmanship. “Israel, in the end of the day, will understand it’s not to their advantage to partition the country,” he added.

Iran, by contrast, remains a destabilizing force, he warned. “They invested the most in this war and they lost the biggest loss in this war. So, they won’t leave Syria to be a stable state without working on destabilizing it,” Ibrahim said.

He accused Tehran of supporting militias in Syria’s coastal regions and pushing for partition along sectarian lines, but added that its influence is waning. “They did not leave any good legacy behind them in Syria to let the Syrians feel they are welcome,” he said.

As Damascus distances itself from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ibrahim said the new government is signaling that it wants a reset. “Why don’t they stop exporting their revolution? Then the Syrians may consider normalization with Iran,” he added.

But without the lifting of US and European sanctions, Syria’s future remains hostage to its past.

“The sanctions at this moment are out of context,” said Ibrahim. While once meant to isolate the Assad regime, they now, in his view, cripple the new administration’s ability to govern.

“So, the sanctions now are literally just hurting ordinary Syrian people,” he said. “If the West wants to see Syria a normal state running in a normal manner without showing any kind of hostility, they have to help. And the way to help is literally lift the sanctions.”

He said that unless sanctions are lifted, growing popular frustration may spark unrest. “If they don’t see improvements soon, they will go to the streets and we will end up with another crisis this year,” he said.

The killings in Latakia and Tartous — reportedly sparked by loyalists of the former regime — exposed how fragile the situation remains.

“It was unjustified, it was some kind of war crime, it was not acceptable,” Ibrahim said. He defended President Al-Sharaa’s early policy of clemency toward Assad loyalists, but acknowledged that it may have inadvertently fueled revenge killings.

“There was an intention that if all Syrians want to close that chapter, they don’t want to go back to that moment of sectarian war,” he said. But the strategy also allowed hostile elements to regroup.

Even the composition of the new cabinet has drawn criticism, with some ethnic and religious minorities saying they were not consulted. Ibrahim said President Al-Sharaa is trying to walk a tightrope.

“Is it wrong to choose loyalists from different backgrounds as much as possible? Probably, this is not the ideal transitional government,” he said. “He wants a kind of unity in his government.”

Asked about reports that Turkiye is negotiating a defense pact that would place air defense systems in Syria, Ibrahim said Damascus has voiced its concerns directly.

“The Syrians don’t want to let their country be in a box — like a mailbox, with both sides sending messages through the Syrians,” he said.

According to Ibrahim, Syria is attempting to broker peace between Turkiye and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. A deal may even be in the works, potentially sponsored by the US.

“He does not want to enter in a proxy war on behalf of Turkiye to fight with the Syrian Democratic Forces,” Ibrahim said of Al-Sharaa. “And we may hear in the coming months some kind of like de-escalation agreement.”

While Syria seeks Western engagement, it is not abandoning ties with Moscow. Ibrahim called Russia a pragmatic partner that has kept channels open to both the former regime and the opposition.

“Probably, Russia may play a very vital role in striking a deal with Israel because the Russians have good relations with the Israelis,” he added.

Finally, Ibrahim addressed remarks by a former provincial governor in Syria to a Wall Street Journal reporter, warning that continued Israeli aggression could attract “holy warriors” from around the world.

“It’s probably the message was taken out of its context,” Ibrahim said. “There is a clear message from Damascus to around the world: Syria will not be a hub to attack any country, including Israel.”

Ibrahim pointed to Al-Sharaa’s use of the term “Israeli state” — a break from the Assad-era lexicon — as a sign of a new posture. “The Syrians look at normalization with Israel as an advantage for Syria and advantage for everyone,” he said.

Looking to the future, Ibrahim said: “All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development — free trade, a Syria open for normalization with every normal country or normal state around the world, including Israel.”