Oil Updates — prices remain near 4-month highs as Russia sanctions weighed

Brent futures slipped 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $80.73 a barrel by 7:00 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
Short Url
Updated 14 January 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — prices remain near 4-month highs as Russia sanctions weighed

LONDON: Oil prices eased on Tuesday but remained near four-month highs as the impact of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil remained the market’s key focus.

Brent futures slipped 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $80.73 a barrel by 7:00 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 18 cents, or 0.2 percent to $78.64 a barrel.

Prices jumped 2 percent on Monday after the US Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that trade oil as part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers.

“Headlines surrounding Russia oil sanctions have been the dominant driver for oil prices over the past week, and combined with resilient US economic data, the tighter supply-demand dynamics have been seeing some momentum,” said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

“Prices are taking a slight breather today. With prices rising fast and furious by close to 10 percent since the start of the year, it does prompt some profit-taking as event risks around upcoming US inflation data releases loom.”

The US producer price index will be released later in the day, with consumer price index data on Wednesday.

The stakes are high for Wednesday’s figures, where any rise in core inflation greater than the forecast 0.2 percent would threaten to close the door on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

Lower interest rates typically help in stimulating economic growth, which could prop up oil demand.

“The recent rally to a three-month high does signal an improvement in sentiment, but while broad bearish pressures have eased for the time being, a stronger catalyst is still needed to fuel a sustained broader uptrend,” IG’s Yeap added.

While analysts were still expecting a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, the actual physical impact could be less.

“These sanctions have the potential to take as much as 700k b/d of supply off the market, which would erase the surplus that we are expecting for this year. However, the actual reduction in flows will likely be less, as Russia and buyers find ways around these sanctions – clearly there will be more strain on non-sanctioned vessels within the shadow fleet,” ING analysts said in a note.

Meanwhile, demand uncertainty from major buyer China could blunt the impact of the tighter supply. China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.

“New sanctions on Russian tankers are expected to impact crude supply to China and India, though key players in these countries are still assessing the legal situation and possible workarounds,” said Sparta Commodities’ Philip Jones-Lux. 


Egypt’s exports to Lebanon up 43.8% across 2024: CAPMAS

Updated 9 sec ago
Follow

Egypt’s exports to Lebanon up 43.8% across 2024: CAPMAS

RIYADH: The value of Egyptian exports to Lebanon saw a 43.8 percent year-on-year surge in 2024 to reach $762.8 million, according to new figures.

Data from Egypt’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics also showed that imports from the Middle Eastern country declined by 2.3 percent, totaling $237.7 million during the same period.

These shifts in trade come amid broader economic trends. The region’s gross domestic product grew by 1.8 percent in 2024, reaching $3.6 trillion despite ongoing challenges, according to a March report by the Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation, or Dhaman.

Looking ahead, this economic momentum appears set to continue. Moody’s projects 2.9 percent growth for the region in 2025, up from 2.1 percent in 2024, while maintaining a stable outlook for the region’s sovereign credit fundamentals over the next 12 months.

The newly released CAPMAS report revealed there was “an increase in the value of trade exchange between Egypt and Lebanon, reaching $1 billion in 2024, compared to $774 million in 2023, an increase of 29.3 percent.”

The main export groups of goods to Lebanon during 2024 included fuels, mineral oils, and distillation products worth $215 million, iron and iron products worth $65 million, and cement worth $55 million.

The value of fruits and vegetable exports stood at $48 million, while sugar and sugar products were worth $41 million. 

As for the main import groups of goods from Lebanon during the same year, they entailed iron and iron products worth $118 million, fruits and vegetables worth $72 million, and electrical appliances and equipment worth $22 million.

The value of plastics imports stood at $4 million, while dyeing and coating extracts were also worth $4 million.

The CAPMAS data also shed light on how the value of Lebanese investments in Egypt amounted to $51.2 million during the fiscal year 2023/2024, compared to $51.4 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023.

Egyptian investments in Lebanon amounted to $9.7 million during the fiscal year 2023/2024, compared to $7.9 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023.

“The value of remittances from Egyptians working in Lebanon amounted to $42.9 million during the fiscal year 2023/2024, compared to $38.1 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023, while the value of remittances from Lebanese working in Egypt amounted to $3.5 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023, compared to $3.7 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023,” the CAPMAS report added.

According to estimates, the number of Egyptians residing in Lebanon reached 11,300 by the end of 2023, the report concluded.


Invest Qatar launches $1bn incentive program to accelerate investment

Updated 25 min 42 sec ago
Follow

Invest Qatar launches $1bn incentive program to accelerate investment

  • Move was announced during the 5th Qatar Economic Forum
  • Program offers financial packages for local and international investors covering up to 40% of expenses

DUBAI: Investment promotion agency Invest Qatar has launched a $1 billion program aimed at accelerating investment inflows and boosting diversification of the Qatari economy, it said on Wednesday.
Announced during the 5th Qatar Economic Forum, the program offers financial packages for local and international investors covering up to 40 percent of expenses such as setup costs, construction, leases and staff for a five-year period.
It said the first phase of the program will offer four off-the-shelf packages designed to stimulate fresh investment, support the expansion and digitization of existing facilities, create high-skilled employment, and promote knowledge transfer.
The Advanced Industries Package targets high-value, technology-intensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, automotive, and electronics.
The Logistics Package encourages investments in infrastructure, automation and advanced logistics services, while the Technology Package seeks to develop the digital economy through support for cybersecurity, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and data-driven innovation.
The Lusail financial services package aims to advance fintech, insurance, asset and wealth management, while incentivising firms to establish offices in Lusail, the country’s main financial district.


Kuwait sovereign wealth fund head says investors reduce US exposure at their ‘own risk’

Updated 39 min 11 sec ago
Follow

Kuwait sovereign wealth fund head says investors reduce US exposure at their ‘own risk’

DOHA: The head of the Kuwait Investment Authority, which manages almost $1 trillion in assets, said the sovereign wealth fund is committed to investing in the US and that investors cut allocations to US assets at their own risk.
Some global investors have ditched US assets in recent weeks on fears that US President Donald Trump’s overhaul of global trade may hurt the US economy, and could cause deeper long-term damage.
The trend looks set to continue, given that a record number of managers have said they plan to keep cutting their exposure to US assets, according to BofA research.

Kuwait has been investing in the US market for a “long time” and that “won’t change,” KIA Managing Director Sheikh Saoud Salem Abdulaziz Al-Sabah said at an investment conference in the Qatari capital on Wednesday.
“I would say it very bluntly, underweight America at your own risk,” he said.
Last week, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating by one notch, citing concerns about the nation’s growing $36 trillion debt pile, which could make investors more cautious and drive up borrowing costs across the economy.
“They (investors) are merely looking at equity markets, but they’re not taking into fact the US has the largest fixed income market, the US has the largest private equity market, the real estate market, infrastructure and credit,” Al-Sabah said.
“I think the US has the breadth and depth to sustain its exceptionalism and it has the rule of law as well,” he said.


Jewelry spending up 13% in Saudi Arabia as weekly POS stays above $3.2bn: SAMA

Updated 21 May 2025
Follow

Jewelry spending up 13% in Saudi Arabia as weekly POS stays above $3.2bn: SAMA

RIYADH: Jewelry spending in Saudi Arabia rose by 13.2 percent between May 11 and 17 compared to the previous week, adding SR330.4 million ($88 million) to point-of-sale transactions during this period. 

The latest data from Saudi Arabia’s central bank, SAMA, revealed that it was one of only two sectors to record growth during the period, with education also posting an increase of 1.4 percent to SR164.6 million. 

The Kingdom’s overall POS transactions saw a 5.5 percent dip to SR12.3 billion in the seven-day period, driven by decreased spending across most of the sectors. 

Hotels spending saw the biggest drop, dipping by 18.1 percent to SR218.2 million. Clothing and footwear expenditure followed, falling by 10.4 percent to SR688.2 million, while recreation and culture saw a 9.3 percent decrease, totaling SR229.4 million. 

The smallest expenditure drop was in spending on construction and building material and gas stations, down by 1.7 percent each to SR330.1 million and SR929.7 million, respectively. 

The health sector declined by 4.8 percent to SR790.1 million, while public utilities dropped 4.3 percent to SR47 million. 

Electronics followed the trend, dropping 4.5 percent to SR1653.8 million, and furniture edging down by 3.7 percent to SR261.8 million. 

The telecommunication sector dropped by 5.5 percent in transaction value to SR98.3 million. Food and beverage spending decreased by 4.7 percent to SR1.8 billion, accounting for the largest share of the week’s POS. 

Restaurants and cafes accounted for the second-biggest share at SR1.7 billion, followed by miscellaneous goods and services at SR1.5 billion. 

The top three categories accounted for 41.1 percent of the week’s total spending, amounting to SR5 billion. 

Geographically, Riyadh dominated POS transactions, with expenditure in the capital reaching SR4.5 billion — a 3.4 percent decrease from the previous week. 

Jeddah followed with a 7 percent dip to SR1.7 billion, while Dammam ranked third, down 5.7 percent to SR640.5 million. 

Makkah saw the biggest decrease, inching down 20.6 percent to SR393.3 million, followed by Abha with a 9.7 percent downtick to SR153.5 million. 

In transaction volume, Hail recorded 3.7 million deals, down 2 percent, while Tabuk reached 4.7 million transactions, up by 0.2 percent. 


Oil Updates — crude gains as reports Israel may attack Iran raise supply worries

Updated 21 May 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — crude gains as reports Israel may attack Iran raise supply worries

  • US intelligence suggests Israel plans to strike Iran, CNN says
  • US-Iran nuclear talks show little progress, impacting oil market

SINGAPORE: Oil prices gained more than 1 percent on Wednesday after reports of Israel preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities raised fears that a conflict could upset supply availability in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent futures for July rose 68 cents, or 1.04 percent, to $66.06 a barrel, by 9:30 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for July climbed 70 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $62.73.

New intelligence obtained by the US suggests that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing multiple US officials familiar with the matter.

It was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision, CNN added, citing the officials.

“Such an escalation would not only put Iranian supply at risk, but also in large parts of the broader region,” said ING commodities strategists on Wednesday.

Iran is the third-largest producer among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and an Israeli attack could upset flows from the country.

There are also concerns Iran could retaliate by blocking oil tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz choke point in the Gulf, through which Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE export crude oil and fuel.

The US and Iran have held several rounds of talks this year over Iran’s nuclear program, with US President Donald Trump reviving a campaign of stronger sanctions on Iranian crude exports to compel them to give up their nuclear aspirations.

Despite the discussions, US officials and the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made comments on Tuesday indicating both sides remain far from a resolution.

“There are indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which, if successful, could give the market further upside. However, these talks appear to be running out of steam,” the ING analysts said.

Still, there were some signs of improving crude supply. US crude oil stocks rose last week while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks in the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer, rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended May 16, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

Investors are looking ahead to government US oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday.

Also, Kazakhstan’s oil production has risen by 2 percent in May, an industry source said on Tuesday, an increase that defies pressure from OPEC+ on the country to reduce its output.