A new era of US-Middle East grand strategy

Some view US President Donald Trump as the pioneer of transactional relationships. That may be partially true, but in reality, a series of transactional deals can lay the foundation for a new and enduring strategic vision. The era of the US focusing on meaningless idealism, at least in its Middle East policy, is over. And even if a future Democratic administration eventually takes power, that shift will be hard to reverse.

The golden rule for any government should be simple: Serve the national interest. Yet, the concern with previous US administrations was that they often appeared to willingly make decisions that ran directly against America’s core interests, especially in the Middle East. Some of this could be chalked up to incompetence or ignorance. But the greater fear is that it was intentional, driven by the rise of global far-left agendas that harbored resentment toward their own country’s history, conduct, and identity.

We have witnessed grievance politics, “woke” ideology, and an all-out war against family values, faith, and basic common sense — a new radical version of postmodernism that perhaps deserves to be called the “post-common-sense era.”

Despite fierce criticism, the Trump administration arguably saved the US — and by extension the broader Western world — from falling into that abyss. It did so by enacting dramatic course corrections to stabilize America’s future trajectory.

Now, four months into his second term, Trump is doubling down on this approach, particularly in the Middle East.

In regional policy, the US leader has remained clear-eyed, and impatient with rigid bureaucracy. He wants real, immediate change, not decades of incremental steps that often lead nowhere. One major obstacle to US interests in the region has long been the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the US has maintained strong relations with most Middle Eastern countries, the potential for deeper, more beneficial partnerships has been limited by this unresolved dispute, which fueled widespread distrust and resentment across the region.

Trump now has a chance to deliver one of the most historic achievements of the 21st century: finally ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — not by endless negotiations that lead nowhere, but by pushing both sides toward a lasting peace. Such a breakthrough would not only strengthen US interests and regional stability, but also would deal a devastating blow to the extremists and radicals who have always thrived on chaos and hatred.

Trump wants real, immediate change, not decades of incremental steps that often lead nowhere. 

Salman Al-Ansari

This would also be a service to Israeli citizens, liberating them from the dangerous self-destructive policies of their own extreme leadership.

Trump understands the language of prosperity. And prosperity cannot happen without security. He knows that for economic growth to flourish, peace must prevail.

He will likely mobilize his network of right-wing American Jewish officials and business leaders to apply real pressure on the Israeli government — pressure that previous administrations hesitated to use. For years, some factions within Israel have exploited American goodwill without offering meaningful concessions in return.

During his first term, Trump gave Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unprecedented political support: He recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, endorsed Israeli settlements, brokered the Abraham Accords, and delivered major financial and military aid. No US president had done more.

Yet Netanyahu responded with four major problems: no flexibility on Gaza, constant pressure to push the US into a war with Iran, reckless military adventures in Syria, and alleged interference in US political affairs. From Trump’s perspective, the Israeli leader took everything and gave nothing meaningful back.

Trump has now seen Netanyahu’s true face, without filters. He also now clearly understands Saudi Arabia’s longstanding position regarding the importance of resolving the Palestinian issue for lasting regional peace.

The US president is unlikely to view Netanyahu as an asset anymore. Rather, he will see him as a free rider — a liability Washington can no longer afford if it is serious about an “America First” foreign policy. That does not mean the US will abandon Israel; quite the opposite. True friendship means helping Israel avoid its own self-destruction and securing a future where it can peacefully coexist with its neighbors.

Trump now has a golden opportunity to shift the longstanding dynamic of the US taking dictation from Israel on Middle Eastern affairs. Instead, he can reestablish an independent American foreign policy that serves American interests first. And, as history often shows, what is good for America tends to be good for the wider world as well.

If a figure as bold as Trump cannot redirect this relationship, it is unlikely that any future American president can.

As a historical reflection, many believe the US replaced Britain as the world’s leading power immediately after the Second World War. But the true turning point came in 1956, during the Suez crisis, when the US forced Britain, France, and Israel to halt their aggression against Egypt. That moment redefined global perceptions of power.

If the US still aspires to reclaim that kind of moral and strategic credibility, it must be willing to remind its allies, including Israel, of the natural order of partnership. In the end, that will not only protect American interests, but also safeguard Israel’s future by saving it from the dangerous path charted by leaders like Netanyahu.

• Salman Al-Ansari is a geopolitical analyst who is a frequent guest on the BBC, CNN and France 24. In 2021, he was ranked as the most influential political pundit in the Middle East and North Africa by Arab News. X: @Salansar1