The latest flurry of Gaza ceasefire talks — the back-and-forth over now-familiar sticking points and appeals from around the world — obscures a grim truth about the monthslong efforts to end the Israel-Hamas war and free scores of hostages.
Any deal requires the signatures of two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
They are sworn enemies, notoriously tough negotiators and know that the outcome of the talks will profoundly shape their legacies. In Sinwar’s case, it could mean life or death.
Both have strong incentives to end the war. But they may also think they stand to gain by holding out a bit longer, and that war is preferable to a deal that falls short of their demands.
Here’s a look at the two leaders and the constraints they face.
What does Netanyahu want?
Netanyahu has promised “total victory” over Hamas and the return of all the hostages held in Gaza — goals that many believe are incompatible.
He has come under tremendous pressure from the hostages’ families and much of the Israeli public to make a deal to bring them home, even if it leaves a battered Hamas intact. The United States, which has provided key military aid and diplomatic support to Israel, is also pushing for such a deal.
But Netanyahu’s governing coalition relies on far-right ministers who want to permanently reoccupy Gaza and have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much. That would force early elections that could drive him from power at a time when he is on trial for corruption.
It would also hasten a broader reckoning over the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attack in which Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in southern Israel, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 others — on Netanyahu’s watch. Netanyahu has rejected calls for a government investigation until the war is over.
The longer the war drags on, the more likely Israel is to achieve something that looks like victory — the killing of Sinwar, the rescue of more hostages — and the longer Netanyahu has to repair his political standing and reshape his legacy. But it also comes with risks as the number of soldiers killed in action rises nearly every day and Israel becomes increasingly isolated because of the suffering it has inflicted on Palestinians.
Netanyahu has clashed with his own defense minister over the endgame. Israeli media is filled with reports quoting unnamed senior security officials expressing frustration with Netanyahu, especially his demand for lasting control over two strategic corridors in Gaza. Some have gone so far as to accuse him of sabotaging the talks.
Both Israel and Hamas say they have accepted different versions of an evolving US-backed ceasefire proposal in principle, while suggesting changes and accusing the other of making unacceptable demands.
Yohanan Plesner, head of the Israel Democracy Institute, a local think tank, acknowledged the anger directed at Netanyahu in the local press and among segments of Israeli society but said Sinwar bore most of the blame for the impasse because he had shown little interest in compromising.
“If we saw Sinwar was serious about getting a deal, that would force Israel and Netanyahu to expose their cards,” Plesner said. The current situation is “almost like negotiating with oneself.”
What does Sinwar want?
Sinwar wants to end the war — but only on his terms.
Israel’s offensive has killed over 40,000 people, according to local health officials, displaced 90 percent of Gaza’s population and destroyed its main cities. Hamas has lost thousands of fighters and much of its militant infrastructure.
Sinwar’s only bargaining chips are the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza, around a third of whom are believed to be dead. And he needs much more than a temporary pause in the fighting if he hopes to salvage anything resembling victory from the Oct. 7 attack that he helped mastermind.
That begins with assurances that Israel won’t resume the war once some or all of the hostages are freed. He also needs Israel to withdraw from all of Gaza to ensure that the lasting impact of the Oct. 7 attack is not a permanent reoccupation of the territory. The release of high-profile Palestinian prisoners as part of a deal is a sacred cause for Sinwar, who was himself a long-serving prisoner freed in an exchange. And he needs assurances that Palestinians will be able to return to their homes and rebuild them.
“Sinwar is very much concerned with bringing negotiations to a conclusion, whether with regard to a ceasefire or an exchange of prisoners, because in both cases, Sinwar will have come out as the winner,” said Nabih Awada, a Lebanese political analyst and former militant who spent years in an Israeli prison with Sinwar.
There are risks for Sinwar in drawing the talks out: More hostages are likely to die or be rescued as the war grinds on. Death, destruction and hardship in Gaza will continue, and could stoke Palestinian discontent with Hamas, with political implications down the line.
Sinwar himself, who sits atop Israel’s most-wanted list, could be killed at any time. But given the centrality of martyrdom in Hamas’ history and ideology, he may feel that outcome is inevitable — and preferable to a deal that looks like defeat.
Can any external pressure help?
Egypt and Qatar have served as key mediators with Hamas, but their influence is limited.
Any pressure exerted on Hamas’ exiled leadership is unlikely to have much impact on Sinwar, who was appointed the overall head of Hamas after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Sinwar is believed to have spent most of the past 10 months living in tunnels under Gaza, and it is unclear how much contact he has with the outside world.
The United States has provided crucial military support for Israel throughout the conflict and has shielded it from international calls for a ceasefire. Earlier this year, President Joe Biden paused a shipment of hundreds of 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) bombs to pressure Israel not to invade the southern city of Rafah — which it did anyway.
US election politics could also blunt American pressure. Biden has shown little inclination to pressure Netanyahu, and Vice President Kamala Harris has offered no concrete policy changes. Donald Trump has urged Israel to finish up its offensive but would likely be even more accommodating to Netanyahu, as he was during his presidency.
Any US arms embargo is even less likely when Israel faces a potential retaliatory strike from Iran over the killing of Haniyeh. Instead, the United States has poured military assets into the region, taking some of the pressure off Israel.
Sinwar might have hoped that the targeted killings of Haniyeh and a top Hezbollah commander last month would widen the war. But that appears less likely, with both Israel and Hezbollah applying the brakes following a heavy exchange of fire over the weekend.
The ceasefire talks have continued through it all, punctuated by fleeting moments of optimism.
The mediators have spent recent weeks trying to hammer out a bridging proposal with Netanyahu, but it’s still a work in progress. It has not yet been submitted to Sinwar.
Two sworn enemies hold the key to ending the war in Gaza. Does either man want a deal?
https://arab.news/wtr4x
Two sworn enemies hold the key to ending the war in Gaza. Does either man want a deal?
- Any deal requires the signatures of two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
- They are sworn enemies, notoriously tough negotiators and know that the outcome of the talks will profoundly shape their legacies
Lebanon aims to lure back wealthy Gulf tourists to jumpstart its war-torn economy
- Lebanon’s new political leaders sense an opportunity to revitalize the economy once again with help from wealthy neighbors
BEIRUT: Fireworks lit up the night sky over Beirut’s famous St. Georges Hotel as hit songs from the 1960s and 70s filled the air in a courtyard overlooking the Mediterranean Sea.
The retro-themed event was hosted last month by Lebanon’s Tourism Ministry to promote the upcoming summer season and perhaps recapture some of the good vibes from an era viewed as a golden one for the country. In the years before a civil war began in 1975, Lebanon was the go-to destination for wealthy tourists from neighboring Gulf countries seeking beaches in summer, snow-capped mountains in winter and urban nightlife year-round.
In the decade after the war, tourists from Gulf countries – and crucially, Saudi Arabia – came back, and so did Lebanon’s economy. But by the early 2000s, as the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah gained power, Lebanon’s relations with Gulf countries began to sour. Tourism gradually dried up, starving its economy of billions of dollars in annual spending.
Now, after last year’s bruising war with Israel, Hezbollah is much weaker and Lebanon’s new political leaders sense an opportunity to revitalize the economy once again with help from wealthy neighbors. They aim to disarm Hezbollah and rekindle ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, which in recent years have prohibited their citizens from visiting Lebanon or importing its products.
“Tourism is a big catalyst, and so it’s very important that the bans get lifted,” said Laura Khazen Lahoud, the country’s tourism minister.
On the highway leading to the Beirut airport, once-ubiquitous banners touting Hezbollah’s leadership have been replaced with commercial billboards and posters that read “a new era for Lebanon.” In the center of Beirut, and especially in neighborhoods that hope to attract tourists, political posters are coming down, and police and army patrols are on the rise.
There are signs of thawing relations with some Gulf neighbors. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have lifted yearslong travel bans.
All eyes are now on Saudi Arabia, a regional political and economic powerhouse, to see if it will follow suit, according to Lahoud and other Lebanese officials. A key sticking point is security, these officials say. Although a ceasefire with Israel has been in place since November, near-daily airstrikes have continued in southern and eastern Lebanon, where Hezbollah over the years had built its political base and powerful military arsenal.
Tourism as a diplomatic and economic bridge
As vital as tourism is — it accounted for almost 20 percent of Lebanon’s economy before it tanked in 2019 — the country’s leaders say it is just one piece of a larger puzzle they are trying to put back together.
Lebanon’s agricultural and industrial sectors are in shambles, suffering a major blow in 2021, when Saudi Arabia banned their exports after accusing Hezbollah of smuggling drugs into Riyadh. Years of economic dysfunction have left the country’s once-thriving middle class in a state of desperation.
The World Bank says poverty nearly tripled in Lebanon over the past decade, affecting close to half its population of nearly 6 million. To make matters worse, inflation is soaring, with the Lebanese pound losing 90 percent of its value, and many families lost their savings when banks collapsed.
Tourism is seen by Lebanon’s leaders as the best way to kickstart the reconciliation needed with Gulf countries — and only then can they move on to exports and other economic growth opportunities.
“It’s the thing that makes most sense, because that’s all Lebanon can sell now,” said Sami Zoughaib, research manager at The Policy Initiative, a Beirut-based think tank.
With summer still weeks away, flights to Lebanon are already packed with expats and locals from countries that overturned their travel bans, and hotels say bookings have been brisk.
At the event hosted last month by the tourism ministry, the owner of the St. Georges Hotel, Fady El-Khoury, beamed. The hotel, owned by his father in its heyday, has acutely felt Lebanon’s ups and downs over the decades, closing and reopening multiple times because of wars. “I have a feeling that the country is coming back after 50 years,” he said.
On a recent weekend, as people crammed the beaches of the northern city of Batroun, and jet skis whizzed along the Mediterranean, local business people sounded optimistic that the country was on the right path.
“We are happy, and everyone here is happy,” said Jad Nasr, co-owner of a private beach club. “After years of being boycotted by the Arabs and our brothers in the Gulf, we expect this year for us to always be full.”
Still, tourism is not a panacea for Lebanon’s economy, which for decades has suffered from rampant corruption and waste.
Lebanon has been in talks with the International Monetary Fund for years over a recovery plan that would include billions in loans and require the country to combat corruption, restructure its banks, and bring improvements to a range of public services, including electricity and water.
Without those and other reforms, Lebanon’s wealthy neighbors will lack confidence to invest there, experts said. A tourism boom alone would serve as a “morphine shot that would only temporarily ease the pain” rather than stop the deepening poverty in Lebanon, Zoughaib said.
The tourism minister, Lahoud, agreed, saying a long-term process has only just begun.
“But we’re talking about subjects we never talked about before,” she said. “And I think the whole country has realized that war doesn’t serve anyone, and that we really need our economy to be back and flourish again.”
US mulls giving millions to controversial Gaza aid foundation, sources say
- The plan has met resistance from some US officials concerned with the deadly shootings of Palestinians near aid distribution sites and the competence of the GHF, the two sources said
WASHINGTON: The State Department is weighing giving $500 million to the new foundation providing aid to war-shattered Gaza, according to two knowledgeable sources and two former US officials, a move that would involve the US more deeply in a controversial aid effort that has been beset by violence and chaos.
The sources and former US officials, all of whom requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said that money for Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) would come from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is being folded into the US State Department.
The plan has met resistance from some US officials concerned with the deadly shootings of Palestinians near aid distribution sites and the competence of the GHF, the two sources said.
The GHF, which has been fiercely criticized by humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations, for an alleged lack of neutrality, began distributing aid last week amid warnings that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli aid blockade, which was lifted on May 19 when limited deliveries were allowed to resume.
The foundation has seen senior personnel quit and had to pause handouts twice this week after crowds overwhelmed its distribution hubs.
The State Department and GHF did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Reuters has been unable to establish who is currently funding the GHF operations, which began in Gaza last week. The GHF uses private US security and logistics companies to transport aid into Gaza for distribution at so-called secure distribution sites.
On Thursday, Reuters reported that a Chicago-based private equity firm, McNally Capital, has an “economic interest” in the for-profit US contractor overseeing the logistics and security of GHF’s aid distribution hubs in the enclave.
While US President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel say they don’t finance the GHF operation, both have been pressing the United Nations and international aid groups to work with it.
The US and Israel argue that aid distributed by a long-established UN aid network was diverted to Hamas. Hamas has denied that.
USAID has been all but dismantled. Some 80 percent of its programs have been canceled and its staff face termination as part of President Donald Trump’s drive to align US foreign policy with his “America First” agenda.
One source with knowledge of the matter and one former senior official said the proposal to give the $500 million to GHF has been championed by acting deputy USAID Administrator Ken Jackson, who has helped oversee the agency’s dismemberment.
The source said that Israel requested the funds to underwrite GHF’s operations for 180 days.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The two sources said that some US officials have concerns with the plan because of the overcrowding that has affected the aid distribution hubs run by GHF’s contractor, and violence nearby.
Those officials also want well-established non-governmental organizations experienced in running aid operations in Gaza and elsewhere to be involved in the operation if the State Department approves the funds for GHF, a position that Israel likely will oppose, the sources said.
Gaza hospital officials have said more than 80 people had been shot dead and hundreds wounded near GHF’s distribution points between June 1-3.
Since launching its operation, the GHF has opened three hubs, but over the past two days, only two of them have been functioning.
Witnesses blamed Israeli soldiers for the killings. The Israeli military said it fired warning shots on two days, while on Tuesday it said soldiers had fired at Palestinian “suspects” advancing toward their positions.
Activist boat says rescues migrants en route to Gaza
- The Madleen has “a 12-member crew of peaceful activists” headed for Gaza “with the aim of breaking the blockade of Palestine by the state of Israel,” the March to Gaza Greece group said
ATHENS: A vessel organized by an international activist coalition to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza has rescued several migrants from the sea near Crete, a support group in Greece said on Friday.
The Madleen, launched by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, said it had received a distress signal from a boat in the Mediterranean, forcing it to change course off the coast of Crete.
The Madleen has “a 12-member crew of peaceful activists” headed for Gaza “with the aim of breaking the blockade of Palestine by the state of Israel,” the March to Gaza Greece group said.
“Upon arrival (at the scene), it discovered that the boat was sinking with approximately 30-35 people aboard.”
At that point, the Madleen was approached by a ship that initially identified itself as Egyptian.
“The activists aboard the Madleen quickly realized that this was a false identification and that the ship was, in fact, a Libyan coast guard vessel,” they said.
“Libya is not considered a safe country and for this reason some of the refugees jumped into the sea to avoid being returned there.
“The Madleen rescued four Sudanese individuals who had jumped into the water and brought them aboard.”
After several hours of calls for assistance, a Frontex vessel eventually picked up the rescued individuals, the group said, referring to the European Union’s border and coast guard agency.
The Madleen sailed from Sicily on Sunday.
Those on board include climate activist Greta Thunberg.
The Freedom Flotilla Coalition, launched in 2010, is a non-violent international movement supporting Palestinians.
It combines humanitarian aid with political protest against the Israeli blockade of Gaza.
Israel has come under increasing international criticism over the critical humanitarian situation in the occupied Palestinian territory.
It blocked all aid into Gaza on March 2. The United Nations warned on May 30 that the entire population of more than two million was at risk of famine.
Fighters from Palestinian group Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
A total of 1,218 people died, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
The militants abducted 251 hostages, 55 of whom remain in Gaza, including 32 the Israeli military says are dead.
Since October 2023, Israel’s retaliatory war on Hamas-run Gaza has killed 54,677 people there, mostly civilians, according to the Gaza health ministry.
The United Nations deems the health ministry figures to be reliable.
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
Iraq frees Australian, Egyptian engineers after four years, but keeps travel ban
- Both men were sentenced to five years in prison and fined $12 million, the working group said
BAGHDAD: Iraq has released an Australian mechanical engineer and his Egyptian colleague who were detained for more than four years over a dispute with the central bank, authorities said Friday, though the two remain barred from leaving the country.
Robert Pether and Khalid Radwan were working for an engineering company contracted to oversee the construction of the bank’s new Baghdad headquarters, according to a United Nations report, when they were arrested in April 2021.
A report from a working group for the UN Human Rights Council said the arrests stemmed from a contractual dispute over “alleged failure to execute certain payments.”
Both men were sentenced to five years in prison and fined $12 million, the working group said.
A security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that Pether, in his fifties, was released “due to his poor health.”
Australian media have previously reported that the family suspected Pether had developed lung cancer in prison and that he had undergone surgery for skin cancer.
A second Iraqi official confirmed the release of Radwan, adding that he was not allowed to leave the country until a “final decision” was made regarding his case.
Australia’s ABC broadcaster quoted the country’s foreign minister, Penny Wong, as welcoming the release and saying the Australian government had raised the issue with Iraqi authorities more than 200 times.
Simon Harris, foreign minister for Ireland, where Pether’s family lives, posted on X: “This evening, I have been informed of the release on bail of Robert Pether, whose imprisonment in Iraq has been a case of great concern.
“This is very welcome news in what has been a long and distressing saga for Robert’s wife, three children and his wider family and friends.”
Speaking to Irish national broadcaster RTE, Pether’s wife, Desree Pether, said her husband was “not well at all” and “really needs to just come home so he can get the proper medical care he needs.”
“He’s completely unrecognizable. It’s a shock to the system to see how far he has declined,” she said.
Syrian leader makes first visit to cradle of country’s uprising
- SANA published footage showing a cheering crowd greeting Sharaa
- Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab visited Daraa’s historic Omari mosque during the trip
DAMASCUS: Syrian Arab Republic’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa on Friday visited the southern city of Daraa, the cradle of the country’s uprising, for the first time since ousting longtime ruler Bashar Assad almost six months ago.
State news agency SANA published footage showing a cheering crowd greeting Sharaa, who was seen waving and shaking hands with people during the visit, which came on the Muslim holiday of Eid Al-Adha.
Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab visited Daraa’s historic Omari mosque during the trip, the presidency said in a statement, releasing images of the visit showing the leader among the crowd.
SANA also said he met with local civil and military officials, as well as a delegation from the Christian minority.
Provincial governor Anwar Al-Zoabi said in a statement that the visit was “an important milestone in the course of national recovery.”
In 2011, young boys who had scrawled graffiti against Assad were detained in Daraa, sparking nationwide protests.
After the war erupted following the brutal repression of protests, rebels seized control of Daraa and hung on until 2018, when the city returned to Assad under a deal mediated by Russia that allowed former fighters to keep their light weapons.
On December 6, as Sharaa’s Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) led a lightning offensive on Damascus from the country’s northwest, a coalition of armed groups from Daraa province was formed to help oust Assad, who was toppled two days later.
The province was plagued by unrest in recent years.
