Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

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Updated 11 November 2024
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Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

  • Former US ambassador and current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond
  • Robert Ford appeared on the “Frankly Speaking” show as Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepared to take the reins of power

DUBAI: Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House after a resounding victory in the Nov. 5 election is set to reshape America’s foreign policy. Since it comes at a time of unprecedented tension and uncertainty in the Middle East, regional actors are closely watching for signs of how a new Republican administration might wield influence and power.

In a wide-ranging interview, Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Arab region experience, outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond, indicating that it is important to set expectations for what can be achieved. 

Middle East conflicts, especially those in Gaza and Lebanon, have dominated the international conversation since a deadly Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year sparked a devastating Israeli military retaliation. “With respect to President-elect Trump’s promises to end wars, I don’t think he can end a war in a day,” Ford said on “Frankly Speaking,” the weekly Arab News current affairs show.

“I don’t think he can end a war in a week, but he can push for negotiations on the Ukraine war. And with respect to the war in Gaza and the war in Lebanon, he has an ability to influence events. (But) I am not sure he will use that ability.”

Ford noted that there is little support within the Republican Party for a two-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, making it unlikely that the incoming Trump administration will pressure Israel on this issue. 




Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Middle East experience, outlined to Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen his expectations for the Middle East and beyond following the election of Donald Trump as US President. (AN Photo)

“The American Republican Party, in particular, has evinced little support for the establishment of a Palestinian state over the past 15 years. There is no (faction) in the Republican Party exerting pressure for that,” he said. 

In fact, he pointed out, “there are many in the Republican Party who back harder line Israeli politicians who reject the establishment of a Palestinian state.” 

In the current political climate, when there is strong Arab-Islamic unity over the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the consequent high civilian death toll, recognition of a Palestinian state has become a matter of priority for regional actors. Saudi Arabia has been leading efforts to boost international cooperation to reach a two-state solution. In September, the Kingdom’s government formed a global alliance to lead efforts aimed at establishing a Palestinian state.

Ford, who is a current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that any push for progress on this issue will likely come from Gulf leaders. “The only people who will have influence with President Trump personally on this are in fact leaders in the Gulf. And if they make Palestine a priority, perhaps he will reconsider, and I emphasize the word ‘perhaps’,” he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is keen on normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, but the Kingdom has made it very clear that normalization will be off the table unless it sees the recognition of a Palestinian state.

“The first thing is I would imagine that the incoming Trump administration will ask the Saudi government whether or not it is still insistent on a Palestinian state — or at least concrete measures toward a Palestinian state — as part of a package deal involving a US-Saudi defense agreement,” Ford told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“I think the Trump people would rather not have any kind of Saudi conditionality regarding Palestine as part of that agreement, because, in large part, the Israelis won’t accept it.” 

The US has long been the largest arms supplier to Israel. Last year, after Israel began its assault on Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups, it asked the US for $10 billion in emergency military aid, according to a New York Times report. The Council on Foreign Relations, an independent US-based think tank, estimates that the US has provided at least $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel since last October.

Trump has reportedly told Netanyahu that he wants the war in Gaza, which so far has claimed more than 43,400 Palestinian lives, most of them civilians, to finish by the time he takes office in January. Does that mean a Trump administration will put pressure on the Israeli leader to wrap up the war?




Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Wednesday, Nov. 6. (AP)

Ford ruled out the possibility of a reduction in US supply of weapons to Israel. “It’s extremely unlikely that, especially in 2025, President Trump and his team will impose an arms embargo on Israel,” he said. 

Ford expects Trump’s well-known disdain for foreign aid to affect US assistance for Israel in the long term, but without the use of reductions as a threat. 

“I do think that President Trump does not particularly like foreign aid. He views foreign aid as an expenditure of American money and resources that he would rather keep in the US,” he said. 

“So, over the long term, and I stress the word ‘long term,’ I could imagine that President Trump might look for ways to begin to reduce the annual American assistance to Israel, which is over $4 billion in total. 

“But I don’t think he would do that in a way that is used as a threat against Israel. It’s much more likely it would be part of a Trump measure to reduce foreign aid to a lot of countries, not only Israel.”

The Middle East’s second major conflict, between Israel and Hezbollah, has been raging for 13 months now in Lebanon, taking a toll of 3,000 lives, including combatants, and displacing 1.2 million people from the country’s south. In Israel, 72 people, including 30 soldiers, have been killed by Hezbollah attacks and 60,000 people have been displaced during the same period.

The war shows no signs of ending: Israel says it is carrying out new operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon and in parts of Syria, while Hezbollah continues to launch dozens of rockets into northern Israel.

Ford sees potential for early US involvement in discussions on Lebanon “fairly early in the administration,” adding that the engagement would begin through a family connection between Trump and Lebanon.

Although he does not think Lebanon is high on the incoming administration’s agenda, he finds “it is interesting that there is a family connection between President-elect Trump and Lebanon.”

“The husband of one of his daughters is connected to Lebanon, and his daughter’s father-in-law,” Ford, said referring to Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman whose son Michael married Tiffany Trump two years ago and who acted as a Trump emissary to the Arab American community during the election campaign.

“Because Trump operates very much with family, and we saw that in the first administration — first Trump administration — supposedly this Lebanese American gentleman, businessman, may be involved in some discussions.”

Ford also noted that “Israeli success against Hezbollah and against Iran has made the Hezbollah and Iranian side more flexible in their positions,” adding that “it might be easier to reach an agreement on ending the war in Lebanon than, for example, it will be in Gaza.” 

Moving on to Syria, Ford, who served as the US ambassador in Damascus from 2011 to 2014, said while the country “is very low on President Trump’s priority list,” Trump might pull the remaining American troops out.

The US is reported to have a military presence of approximately 900 personnel in eastern Syria and 2,500 in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh. The troops in Syria serve various purposes: helping prevent the resurgence of Daesh, supporting Washington’s Kurdish allies and containing the influence of Iran and Russia — both of which also have a military presence in Syria.

“I think it more likely than not that President Trump will withdraw the remaining American forces in Syria, which numbers somewhere around 1,000,” Ford said, adding that the president-elect might also “withdraw the American forces that are now in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh.” 

He added that Trump “may, perhaps, accept a bilateral relationship, military relationship with Iraq afterward,” but Syria remains “low on his priority list.”

Ford also thinks it is “impossible” for Syrian President Bashar Assad to abandon his alliance with Iran, against which the new Trump administration is expected to reapply “maximum pressure.” 

“The Iranians really saved him (Assad) from the Syrian armed opposition in 2013 and 2014 and 2015,” he said. “There is no alternative for President Assad to a continued close military relationship with Iran.”

He added: “I’m sure President Assad is uncomfortable with some of the things which Iran is doing in Syria and which are triggering substantial Israeli airstrikes. But to abandon Iran? No, that’s difficult for me to imagine.”

He said to expect the Syrian leader to trust Gulf Arab governments more than he would trust the Iranians would be “a big ask.”

When it comes to US policy toward Iran, Ford expects the new Trump administration to return to the “maximum pressure” policy. “For a long time, the Biden administration ignored Iranian sales of petroleum to Chinese companies. ... But the Trump administration is certainly going to take more aggressive action against Chinese companies that import Iranian oil and other countries,” he said.




Demonstration by the families of the hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Hamas militants during the Oct. 7 attacks, calling for action to release the hostages, outside the Israeli Prime Minister's residence in Azza (Gaza) Street in central Jerusalem last month. (AFP)

“It’s highly unlikely that the Trump administration is going to accept that Iraq imports and pays for Iranian energy products, such as electricity and natural gas.”

Ford sees the Trump team as split into two camps: the extreme conservatives, who want regime change in Tehran, and the isolationists, who oppose the US entering a war with Iran.

“There is a camp of extreme conservatives, many of whom actually do favor attempting regime change in Iran. They won’t use the words ‘regime change’ because the words have a bad air, a bad connotation in the US now, but they are, in effect, calling for regime change in Iran,” he said. 

“I should hasten to add that they don’t know what would replace the Islamic Republic in terms of a government.” 

According to Ford, the second camp “is a more, in some ways, isolationist camp. J.D. Vance, the vice president-elect, would be in this camp; so would American media personality Tucker Carlson, who’s a very strong Trump supporter and who has influence with Trump. 

“They do not want to send in the American military into a new war in the Middle East, and they don’t advocate for a war against Iran.”

Ford’s own sense of Trump, from his first administration and from recent statements, is that “he, too, is very cautious about sending the US military to fight Iran.”

Similarly, the Trump team is divided when it comes to the Ukraine war, according to Ford, so it will take some time “for Trump himself to make a definitive policy decision.”

“There are some, such as former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who are very firm supporters of the Ukrainian effort against Russia. Others, like Vance, are not.”

The second reality regarding Ukraine, Ford said, is that Trump himself is skeptical about the value of NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“I cannot imagine that he will be enthusiastic in any way about Ukraine joining NATO. That will at least address one of Moscow’s big concerns,” he said. “The third point I would make: The Americans may propose ideas. But the American ideas about, for example, an autonomous region in eastern Ukraine or freezing the battle lines.”

He added: “I’m not sure that (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky is going to be enthusiastic about accepting them. I’m not sure the Europeans will be enthusiastic about accepting them. And therefore, again, the negotiation process could take a long time.”

On who might advise Trump on Middle East policy after he moves into the White House in January, now that Jared Kushner, the former senior adviser and Trump’s son-in-law, has announced he does not plan to join the administration this time, Ford said Trump places a very high regard on loyalty to him personally.

“People such as Richard Grenell, who was his acting director of national intelligence, and Pompeo pass that kind of loyalty test,” he said. (On Sunday, Trump announced he would not ask Pompeo or former primary opponent Nikki Haley to join his second administration.)

“Trump’s agenda this time is massive change in the Washington federal departments among the employees. And he will trust loyalists … to implement those deep changes — the firing of thousands of employees,” Ford said. “We will see a very different kind of Trump foreign policy establishment by the time we arrive in the year 2026-2027.”

 

 

 


Building fire kills 17, injures others in southern India

Updated 2 sec ago
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Building fire kills 17, injures others in southern India

  • Fires are common in India, where building laws and safety norms are often flouted by builders and residents
HYDERABAD, India: At least 17 people were killed and several injured in a fire that broke out at a building near the historic Charminar monument in southern Hyderabad city, officials said Sunday.
Several people were found unconscious and rushed to various hospitals, according to local media. They said the building housed a jewelry store at ground level and residential space above.
“The accident happened due to a short circuit and many people have died,” federal minister and Bharatiya Janata Party leader G Kishan Reddy told reporters at the site of the accident.
Director general of Telangana fire services Y Nagi Reddy told reporters that 21 people were in the three-story building when the fire started on the ground floor early on Sunday.
“17 people, who were shifted to the hospital in an unconscious state, could not survive. The staircase was very narrow, which made escape difficult. There was only one exit, and the fire had blocked it,” he said.
The fire was brought under control.
Prime minister Narendra Modi announced financial compensation for the victims’ families and said in a post on X that he was “deeply anguished by the loss of lives.”
Fires are common in India, where building laws and safety norms are often flouted by builders and residents.

PM seeks election win as Portugal campaigning ends

Updated 18 May 2025
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PM seeks election win as Portugal campaigning ends

LISBON: Portugal’s general election campaign ends on Friday for a vote that Prime Minister Luis Montenegro is expected to win, but with no guarantee he can form a more stable government.
Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition is tipped to win 34 percent of the ballot, ahead of the Socialist Party (PS) on 26 percent, according to a poll by the Portuguese Catholic University published by local media on Friday.
The upstart far-right Chega (“Enough“) party could take 19 percent of the vote — almost the same as it did in March 2024 elections — to consolidate its position as Portugal’s third political force and kingmaker.
Montenegro, as a result, risks finding himself again at the head of a minority government, caught between the PS, in power from 2015 to 2024, and Chega, with which he has refused to govern.
“People are fed up with elections, people want stability,” the premier, a 52-year-old lawyer, said during a final rally in Lisbon as he urged voters to give him a stronger mandate this time around.
Sunday’s early election will be Portugal’s third in just over three years.
It was called in March after Montenegro lost a confidence vote in parliament following accusations against him of conflicts of interest stemming from his consulting firm’s business.
As such, “staying in power would already be a good result” for the prime minister, who took a “calculated risk” in the hope of strengthening his parliamentary seat, political commentator Paula Espirito Santo told AFP.
Opinion polls appear to indicate an AD majority is unlikely but Montenegro could win the support of the Liberal Initiative party, which is predicted to secure 6.4 percent of the vote.


The PS candidate, Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, has accused Montenegro of having engineered the elections “to avoid explaining himself” about his consultancy firm to a parliamentary inquiry.
“We need a change, a prudent one that will guarantee the political stability which Luis Montenegro can no longer provide,” the Socialist candidate said at a final Lisbon rally on Friday.
Faced with the risk of persistent instability, analysts and voters criticized a political class out of touch with voters who are unenthused by the prospect of another ballot.
“I’ve really had enough of all these political games. They don’t do anything for us,” said Maria Pereira, a 53-year-old saleswoman in a working-class district of Lisbon.
“Normally I vote for the small parties but this time I’m not going to waste my time going to vote.”
But Paula Tomas, a 52-year-old dentist, said Montenegro had won her confidence.
“He has the ability to get things done, but he needs time,” she said at an AD rally, waving a white-and-orange ruling party flag.
Under the Socialist Party, Portugal became one of Europe’s most open countries, but Montenegro’s government has since strengthened immigration policy.
Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreigners living in Portugal quadrupled, reaching about 15 percent of the total population.
Immigration and suspicions about the prime minister might be fertile ground for the far right.
But Chega has also faced embarrassment, including claims that one of its lawmakers in the Azores stole luggage from airport carousels.
Its campaign was interrupted on Tuesday and Thursday when its president, 42-year-old former football commentator Andre Ventura, fell ill while campaigning and was rushed to hospital both times.
He was resting and will not longer appear at the party’s final rally. Instead he released a video message where he once again called for “an end to corruption and uncontrolled immigration.”
All political campaigning has to stop at midnight (2300 GMT Friday) before Sunday’s poll.


World Health Organization looks ahead to life without the US

Updated 18 May 2025
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World Health Organization looks ahead to life without the US

LONDON/GENEVA: Hundreds of officials from the World Health Organization will join donors and diplomats in Geneva from Monday with one question dominating their thoughts — how to cope with crises from mpox to cholera without their main funder, the United States.
The annual assembly, with its week of sessions, votes and policy decisions, usually showcases the scale of the UN agency set up to tackle disease outbreaks, approve vaccines and support health systems worldwide.
This year — since US President Donald Trump started the year-long process to leave the WHO with an executive order on his first day in office in January — the main theme is scaling down.
“Our goal is to focus on the high-value stuff,” Daniel Thornton, the WHO’s director of coordinated resource mobilization, told Reuters.
Just what that “high-value stuff” will be is up for discussion. Health officials have said the WHO’s work in providing guidelines for countries on new vaccines and treatments for conditions from obesity to HIV will remain a priority.
One WHO slideshow for the event, shared with donors and seen by Reuters, suggested work on approving new medicines and responding to outbreaks would be protected, while training programs and offices in wealthier countries could be closed.
The United States had provided around 18 percent of the WHO’s funding. “We’ve got to make do with what we have,” said one Western diplomat who asked not to be named.
Staff have been getting ready — cutting managers and budgets — ever since Trump’s January announcement in a rush of directives and aid cuts that have disrupted a string of multilateral pacts and initiatives.
The year-long delay, mandated under US law, means the US is still a WHO member — its flag still flies outside the Geneva HQ — until its official departure date on January 21, 2026.
Trump — who accused the WHO of mishandling COVID, which it denies — muddied the waters days after his statement by saying he might consider rejoining the agency if its staff “clean it up.”
But global health envoys say there has since been little sign of a change of heart. So the WHO is planning for life with a $600 million hole in the budget for this year and cuts of 21 percent over the next two-year period.

CHINA TAKES LEAD
As the United States prepares to exit, China is set to become the biggest provider of state fees — one of the WHO’s main streams of funding alongside donations.
China’s contribution will rise from just over 15 percent to 20 percent of the total state fee pot under an overhaul of the funding system agreed in 2022.
“We have to adapt ourselves to multilateral organizations without the Americans. Life goes on,” Chen Xu, China’s ambassador to Geneva, told reporters last month.
Others have suggested this might be a time for an even broader overhaul, rather than continuity under a reshuffled hierarchy of backers.
“Does WHO need all its committees? Does it need to be publishing thousands of publications each year?” said Anil Soni, chief executive of the WHO Foundation, an independent fund-raising body for the agency.
He said the changes had prompted a re-examination of the agency’s operations, including whether it should be focussed on details like purchasing petrol during emergencies.
There was also the urgent need to make sure key projects do not collapse during the immediate cash crisis. That meant going to donors with particular interests in those areas, including pharmaceutical companies and philanthropic groups, Soni said.
The ELMA Foundation, which focuses on children’s health in Africa with offices in the US, South Africa and Uganda, has already recently stepped in with $2 million for the Global Measles and Rubella Laboratory Network known as Gremlin — more than 700 labs which track infectious disease threats, he added.
Other business at the assembly includes the rubber-stamping a historic agreement on how to handle future pandemics and drumming up more cash from donors at an investment round.
But the focus will remain on funding under the new world order. In the run up to the event, a WHO manager sent an email to staff asking them to volunteer, without extra pay, as ushers.


Poles vote for a new president as security concerns loom large

Updated 18 May 2025
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Poles vote for a new president as security concerns loom large

WARSAW: Poles are voting Sunday in a presidential election at a time of heightened security concerns stemming from the ongoing war in neighboring Ukraine and growing worry that the US commitment to Europe’s security could be weakening under President Donald Trump.
The top two front-runners are Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal allied with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian with no prior political experience who is supported by the national conservative Law and Justice party.
Recent opinion polls show Trzaskowski with around 30 percent support and Nawrocki in the mid-20s. A second round between the two is widely expected to take place on June 1.
The election is also a test of the strength of other forces, including the far right.
Sławomir Mentzen, a hard-right candidate who blends populist MAGA rhetoric with libertarian economics and a critical stance toward the European Union, has been polling in third place.
Ten other candidates are also on the ballot. With such a crowded field and a requirement that a candidate receive more than 50 percent of the vote to win outright, a second round seemed all but inevitable.
Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. (0500GMT) and close at 9 p.m. (1900GMT). Exit polls will be released when voting ends, with results expected by Tuesday, possibly Monday.
Polish authorities have reported attempts at foreign interference during the campaign, including denial-of-service attacks targeting parties in Tusk’s coalition on Friday and allegations by a state research institute that political ads on Facebook were funded from abroad.
Although Poland’s prime minister and parliament hold primary authority over domestic policy, the presidency carries substantial power. The president serves as commander of the armed forces, plays a role in foreign and security policy, and can veto legislation.
The conservative outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, has repeatedly used that power over more than the past year to hamper Tusk’s agenda, for example blocking ambassadorial nominations and using his veto power to resist reversing judicial and media changes made during Law and Justice’s time in power from 2015 to late 2023.
A Trzaskowski victory could be expected to end such a standoff. He has pledged to support reforms to the courts and public media, both of which critics say were politicized under Law and Justice. Tusk’s opponents say he has also politicized public media.
Nawrocki, who leads a state historical institute, has positioned himself as a defender of conservative values and national sovereignty.


Indian space agency’s satellite mission fails due to technical issue in launch vehicle

Updated 18 May 2025
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Indian space agency’s satellite mission fails due to technical issue in launch vehicle

  • The EOS-09 Earth observation satellite took off on board the PSLV-C61 launch vehicle from the Sriharikota space center in southern India on Sunday morning

NEW DELHI: The Indian space agency’s mission to launch into orbit a new Earth observation satellite failed after the launch vehicle encountered a technical issue during the third stage of flight, officials said Sunday.
The EOS-09 Earth observation satellite took off on board the PSLV-C61 launch vehicle from the Sriharikota space center in southern India on Sunday morning.
“During the third stage ... there was a fall in the chamber pressure of the motor case, and the mission could not be accomplished,” said V. Narayanan, chief of the Indian Space Research Organization.
Active in space research since the 1960s, India has launched satellites for itself and other countries, and successfully put one in orbit around Mars in 2014.
After a failed attempt to land on the moon in 2019, India became the first country to land a spacecraft near the moon’s south pole in 2023 in a historic voyage to uncharted territory that scientists believe could hold reserves of frozen water. The mission was dubbed as a technological triumph for the world’s most populous nation.