Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

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Updated 11 November 2024
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Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

  • Former US ambassador and current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond
  • Robert Ford appeared on the “Frankly Speaking” show as Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepared to take the reins of power

DUBAI: Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House after a resounding victory in the Nov. 5 election is set to reshape America’s foreign policy. Since it comes at a time of unprecedented tension and uncertainty in the Middle East, regional actors are closely watching for signs of how a new Republican administration might wield influence and power.

In a wide-ranging interview, Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Arab region experience, outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond, indicating that it is important to set expectations for what can be achieved. 

Middle East conflicts, especially those in Gaza and Lebanon, have dominated the international conversation since a deadly Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year sparked a devastating Israeli military retaliation. “With respect to President-elect Trump’s promises to end wars, I don’t think he can end a war in a day,” Ford said on “Frankly Speaking,” the weekly Arab News current affairs show.

“I don’t think he can end a war in a week, but he can push for negotiations on the Ukraine war. And with respect to the war in Gaza and the war in Lebanon, he has an ability to influence events. (But) I am not sure he will use that ability.”

Ford noted that there is little support within the Republican Party for a two-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, making it unlikely that the incoming Trump administration will pressure Israel on this issue. 




Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Middle East experience, outlined to Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen his expectations for the Middle East and beyond following the election of Donald Trump as US President. (AN Photo)

“The American Republican Party, in particular, has evinced little support for the establishment of a Palestinian state over the past 15 years. There is no (faction) in the Republican Party exerting pressure for that,” he said. 

In fact, he pointed out, “there are many in the Republican Party who back harder line Israeli politicians who reject the establishment of a Palestinian state.” 

In the current political climate, when there is strong Arab-Islamic unity over the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the consequent high civilian death toll, recognition of a Palestinian state has become a matter of priority for regional actors. Saudi Arabia has been leading efforts to boost international cooperation to reach a two-state solution. In September, the Kingdom’s government formed a global alliance to lead efforts aimed at establishing a Palestinian state.

Ford, who is a current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that any push for progress on this issue will likely come from Gulf leaders. “The only people who will have influence with President Trump personally on this are in fact leaders in the Gulf. And if they make Palestine a priority, perhaps he will reconsider, and I emphasize the word ‘perhaps’,” he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is keen on normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, but the Kingdom has made it very clear that normalization will be off the table unless it sees the recognition of a Palestinian state.

“The first thing is I would imagine that the incoming Trump administration will ask the Saudi government whether or not it is still insistent on a Palestinian state — or at least concrete measures toward a Palestinian state — as part of a package deal involving a US-Saudi defense agreement,” Ford told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“I think the Trump people would rather not have any kind of Saudi conditionality regarding Palestine as part of that agreement, because, in large part, the Israelis won’t accept it.” 

The US has long been the largest arms supplier to Israel. Last year, after Israel began its assault on Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups, it asked the US for $10 billion in emergency military aid, according to a New York Times report. The Council on Foreign Relations, an independent US-based think tank, estimates that the US has provided at least $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel since last October.

Trump has reportedly told Netanyahu that he wants the war in Gaza, which so far has claimed more than 43,400 Palestinian lives, most of them civilians, to finish by the time he takes office in January. Does that mean a Trump administration will put pressure on the Israeli leader to wrap up the war?




Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Wednesday, Nov. 6. (AP)

Ford ruled out the possibility of a reduction in US supply of weapons to Israel. “It’s extremely unlikely that, especially in 2025, President Trump and his team will impose an arms embargo on Israel,” he said. 

Ford expects Trump’s well-known disdain for foreign aid to affect US assistance for Israel in the long term, but without the use of reductions as a threat. 

“I do think that President Trump does not particularly like foreign aid. He views foreign aid as an expenditure of American money and resources that he would rather keep in the US,” he said. 

“So, over the long term, and I stress the word ‘long term,’ I could imagine that President Trump might look for ways to begin to reduce the annual American assistance to Israel, which is over $4 billion in total. 

“But I don’t think he would do that in a way that is used as a threat against Israel. It’s much more likely it would be part of a Trump measure to reduce foreign aid to a lot of countries, not only Israel.”

The Middle East’s second major conflict, between Israel and Hezbollah, has been raging for 13 months now in Lebanon, taking a toll of 3,000 lives, including combatants, and displacing 1.2 million people from the country’s south. In Israel, 72 people, including 30 soldiers, have been killed by Hezbollah attacks and 60,000 people have been displaced during the same period.

The war shows no signs of ending: Israel says it is carrying out new operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon and in parts of Syria, while Hezbollah continues to launch dozens of rockets into northern Israel.

Ford sees potential for early US involvement in discussions on Lebanon “fairly early in the administration,” adding that the engagement would begin through a family connection between Trump and Lebanon.

Although he does not think Lebanon is high on the incoming administration’s agenda, he finds “it is interesting that there is a family connection between President-elect Trump and Lebanon.”

“The husband of one of his daughters is connected to Lebanon, and his daughter’s father-in-law,” Ford, said referring to Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman whose son Michael married Tiffany Trump two years ago and who acted as a Trump emissary to the Arab American community during the election campaign.

“Because Trump operates very much with family, and we saw that in the first administration — first Trump administration — supposedly this Lebanese American gentleman, businessman, may be involved in some discussions.”

Ford also noted that “Israeli success against Hezbollah and against Iran has made the Hezbollah and Iranian side more flexible in their positions,” adding that “it might be easier to reach an agreement on ending the war in Lebanon than, for example, it will be in Gaza.” 

Moving on to Syria, Ford, who served as the US ambassador in Damascus from 2011 to 2014, said while the country “is very low on President Trump’s priority list,” Trump might pull the remaining American troops out.

The US is reported to have a military presence of approximately 900 personnel in eastern Syria and 2,500 in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh. The troops in Syria serve various purposes: helping prevent the resurgence of Daesh, supporting Washington’s Kurdish allies and containing the influence of Iran and Russia — both of which also have a military presence in Syria.

“I think it more likely than not that President Trump will withdraw the remaining American forces in Syria, which numbers somewhere around 1,000,” Ford said, adding that the president-elect might also “withdraw the American forces that are now in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh.” 

He added that Trump “may, perhaps, accept a bilateral relationship, military relationship with Iraq afterward,” but Syria remains “low on his priority list.”

Ford also thinks it is “impossible” for Syrian President Bashar Assad to abandon his alliance with Iran, against which the new Trump administration is expected to reapply “maximum pressure.” 

“The Iranians really saved him (Assad) from the Syrian armed opposition in 2013 and 2014 and 2015,” he said. “There is no alternative for President Assad to a continued close military relationship with Iran.”

He added: “I’m sure President Assad is uncomfortable with some of the things which Iran is doing in Syria and which are triggering substantial Israeli airstrikes. But to abandon Iran? No, that’s difficult for me to imagine.”

He said to expect the Syrian leader to trust Gulf Arab governments more than he would trust the Iranians would be “a big ask.”

When it comes to US policy toward Iran, Ford expects the new Trump administration to return to the “maximum pressure” policy. “For a long time, the Biden administration ignored Iranian sales of petroleum to Chinese companies. ... But the Trump administration is certainly going to take more aggressive action against Chinese companies that import Iranian oil and other countries,” he said.




Demonstration by the families of the hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Hamas militants during the Oct. 7 attacks, calling for action to release the hostages, outside the Israeli Prime Minister's residence in Azza (Gaza) Street in central Jerusalem last month. (AFP)

“It’s highly unlikely that the Trump administration is going to accept that Iraq imports and pays for Iranian energy products, such as electricity and natural gas.”

Ford sees the Trump team as split into two camps: the extreme conservatives, who want regime change in Tehran, and the isolationists, who oppose the US entering a war with Iran.

“There is a camp of extreme conservatives, many of whom actually do favor attempting regime change in Iran. They won’t use the words ‘regime change’ because the words have a bad air, a bad connotation in the US now, but they are, in effect, calling for regime change in Iran,” he said. 

“I should hasten to add that they don’t know what would replace the Islamic Republic in terms of a government.” 

According to Ford, the second camp “is a more, in some ways, isolationist camp. J.D. Vance, the vice president-elect, would be in this camp; so would American media personality Tucker Carlson, who’s a very strong Trump supporter and who has influence with Trump. 

“They do not want to send in the American military into a new war in the Middle East, and they don’t advocate for a war against Iran.”

Ford’s own sense of Trump, from his first administration and from recent statements, is that “he, too, is very cautious about sending the US military to fight Iran.”

Similarly, the Trump team is divided when it comes to the Ukraine war, according to Ford, so it will take some time “for Trump himself to make a definitive policy decision.”

“There are some, such as former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who are very firm supporters of the Ukrainian effort against Russia. Others, like Vance, are not.”

The second reality regarding Ukraine, Ford said, is that Trump himself is skeptical about the value of NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“I cannot imagine that he will be enthusiastic in any way about Ukraine joining NATO. That will at least address one of Moscow’s big concerns,” he said. “The third point I would make: The Americans may propose ideas. But the American ideas about, for example, an autonomous region in eastern Ukraine or freezing the battle lines.”

He added: “I’m not sure that (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky is going to be enthusiastic about accepting them. I’m not sure the Europeans will be enthusiastic about accepting them. And therefore, again, the negotiation process could take a long time.”

On who might advise Trump on Middle East policy after he moves into the White House in January, now that Jared Kushner, the former senior adviser and Trump’s son-in-law, has announced he does not plan to join the administration this time, Ford said Trump places a very high regard on loyalty to him personally.

“People such as Richard Grenell, who was his acting director of national intelligence, and Pompeo pass that kind of loyalty test,” he said. (On Sunday, Trump announced he would not ask Pompeo or former primary opponent Nikki Haley to join his second administration.)

“Trump’s agenda this time is massive change in the Washington federal departments among the employees. And he will trust loyalists … to implement those deep changes — the firing of thousands of employees,” Ford said. “We will see a very different kind of Trump foreign policy establishment by the time we arrive in the year 2026-2027.”

 

 

 


’Not a commodity’: UN staff rally over deep cuts

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’Not a commodity’: UN staff rally over deep cuts

Carrying signs reading “We stand for humanity” and “Protect the protectors,” protesters poured into the square in front of the UN European headquarters
“We’re supposed to stand for workers’ rights, so this is really tough,” Lena, an ILO staff member said

GENEVA: Hundreds of UN staff rallied in Geneva Thursday over deep funding cuts, especially from key donor the United States, which have led to mass-layoffs and threatened life-saving services around the world.
The demonstration, called by UN staff unions and associations, brought together workers from a wide range of Geneva-based agencies, along with their families and supporters under a blazing sun.
Carrying signs reading “UN staff are not a commodity,” “We stand for humanity,” “Stop firing UN staff now” and “Protect the protectors,” protesters poured into the square in front of the United Nations European headquarters.
“We’re supposed to stand for workers’ rights, so this is really tough,” Lena, a staff member at the International Labour Organization, told AFP, refusing to give her last name.
“You just feel helpless,” she said, standing next to her daughter sound asleep in a baby carriage with a sign reading “We stand for better jobs in the world” propped on top.
Humanitarian organizations worldwide have been reeling since US President Donald Trump returned to office in January, pushing an anti-refugee and anti-migrant agenda and immediately freezing most US foreign aid funding.
The United States has traditionally been by far the top donor to a number of agencies, which have been left scrambling to fill sudden and gaping budget gaps.
A number of agencies have already signalled the dire consequences as austerity measures take hold across the UN system.
According to UN staff unions, the UN refugee agency is preparing to cut up to 30 percent of its staff worldwide, while the International Organization for Migration has said it will need to lay off more than 6,000 staff members, or over a third of its workforce.
The World Food Programme is meanwhile preparing to cut between 25 and 30 percent of its global workforce.
Thousands of jobs are also being cut at the UN humanitarian agency OCHA, the World Health Organization and UNAIDS, with many more hanging in the balance, the staff unions said.
They also noted that nearly one in 10 jobs were being eliminated at the ILO, while the UN children’s agency UNICEF is facing a projected 20-percent budget cut.
“So many people are afraid of losing their jobs,” said Elodie Saban, who works at the main UN Geneva office.
“People who work for the UN are often asked to make extreme sacrifices. It is outrageous to see how they are being treated.”
Ian Richards, head of the UN office in Geneva staff union, stressed in a statement that “our colleagues have worked in some of the most dangerous, difficult and isolated locations in the world.”
“They couldn’t choose when or where they moved. They have sacrificed their personal and family lives, and in some cases paid the ultimate price, to help those in need,” he said, decrying that now “many are being let go without any social or financial support from their employers.”
Lena agreed, pointing out that some workers “are here for 20 years, and then it is basically: ‘goodbye’, you’re gone in two months.”
She highlighted that international UN staff are not granted unemployment benefits in the countries they work in, and their residence permits expire within a month of losing their employment.
Even worse, perhaps, would be the impact on operations in the field where the UN’s humanitarian agencies provide life-saving aid to millions of people, while an agency like the ILO battles against things like child labor, Lena said.
“Now, we just have to tell people we have worked with for years, ‘sorry’.”

Bangladesh holds mass political rallies in anticipation of first vote since Hasina ouster

People gather at a May Day rally organized by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in Dhaka on May 1, 2025. (BNP)
Updated 5 min 9 sec ago
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Bangladesh holds mass political rallies in anticipation of first vote since Hasina ouster

  • Thousands of people gathered for a May Day rally organized by Bangladesh Nationalist Party
  • Chief of Bangladesh’s interim administration earlier said election could take place end of 2025

DHAKA: Three days of mass rallies began in Bangladesh on Thursday as political parties seek to drum up support ahead of the anticipated first vote since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last year.

The country’s interim government, headed by Nobel prize winner Prof. Muhammad Yunus, has been implementing a series of reforms. And preparing for elections since taking charge in August, after Hasina fled Dhaka amid student-led protests that called for her resignation.

Yunus has said that Bangladesh could hold elections by the end of 2025 or in the first half of 2026, provided that electoral reforms take place first.

As thousands of people gathered in Dhaka for a May Day rally organized by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party on Thursday, its leaders seek to highlight the rights of Bangladeshis to a free and fair election.

The BNP’s Vice Chairman Shamsuzzaman Dudu told Arab News: “People were deprived of their voting rights in the last three general elections due to a fraudulent environment.

“Considering the present context, people are optimistic that they would get the chance to exercise voting rights and eventually hand over power to their trusted political party.

“In this way, a democratic government will be reinstated in the country.”

He added: “These expectations and dreams of the countrymen will be represented through our mass demonstration today.”

“We want to see a Bangladesh, which is run through a democratic system, where people would be able to exercise and enjoy all of their due rights.”

The country’s largest Islamic political party, Jamaat-e-Islami, also held a rally on Thursday.

They will be followed on Friday by a mass demonstration organized by the National Citizens Party, which was formed by the students who spearheaded the youth-led protests that overthrew Hasina.

On Saturday, Hefazat-e-Islam, a powerful Islamic organization in the country, is also expected to hold a “grand rally.”

The series of political rallies are taking place a little over a year since Bangladesh’s last elections in January 2024, when Hasina won a fourth term in polls that were boycotted by the main opposition parties.

Following 15 years of uninterrupted rule, Hasina and her Awami League party had allegedly politicized key government institutions, including the Election Commission.

Bangladesh is going through a “transitional moment,” said NCP Joint Member Secretary Saleh Uddin Sifat, highlighting that the interim government’s ongoing work is crucial to secure a better future for the country.

“If we can’t reform or overhaul the other machineries of the state, like (the) judiciary, police, constitution etc., before the election, then the next government might also be an authoritarian one because of the existence of the authoritarian elements within the state machineries,” Sifat told Arab News.

Sifat is expecting a good turnout at the NCP rally on Friday, which will urge for reforms in various state institutions and demand justice for alleged crimes committed by members of the Awami League.

“We believe our next general election will not simply serve as a medium of transferring power,” he said. “Rather, it will pave the way for a permanent and effective reformation of the structural issues of the country.”


UK counter-terrorism unit probes rappers Kneecap but music stars back band

Updated 17 min 42 sec ago
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UK counter-terrorism unit probes rappers Kneecap but music stars back band

  • Since the row erupted Kneecap has had several concerts canceled, including one in southwest England and three in Germany
  • London’s Metropolitan Police said two videos had been “referred to the Counter Terrorism Internet Referral Unit for assessment by specialist officers”

LONDON: British counter-terrorism police Thursday launched an investigation into online videos of Irish rappers Kneecap after the band denied supporting Hamas and Hezbollah or inciting violence against UK politicians.
The announcement came as nearly 40 other groups and artists, among them Pulp, Paul Weller and Primal Scream, rallied around the band amid an escalating row about political messaging at its concerts.
Other artists offering their support are The Pogues, Massive Attack, Dexys and Thin Lizzy.
“As artists, we feel the need to register our opposition to any political repression of artistic freedom,” the group said in a joint statement.
They added there had been a “clear, concerted attempt to censor and ultimately deplatform.”


Since the row erupted Kneecap has had several concerts canceled, including one in southwest England and three in Germany.
London’s Metropolitan Police said two videos had been “referred to the Counter Terrorism Internet Referral Unit for assessment by specialist officers, who have determined there are grounds for further investigation into potential offenses linked to both videos.”
The investigation was “now being carried out by officers from the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command and inquiries remain ongoing at this time,” it added.
Kneecap on Monday apologized to the families of murdered British politicians and denied supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.
The damaging controversy began after police on Sunday said they were examining video footage.
One video appeared to show a band member shouting “up Hamas, up Hezbollah.”
Those groups, in Gaza and in Lebanon, are banned as terrorist organizations in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.
Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin had urged the band to clarify whether they supported the groups or not.
Video also emerged of the Belfast rap trio at a 2023 gig appearing to show one member saying: “The only good Tory is a dead Tory. Kill your local MP.”
The family of Conservative MP David Amess, who was fatally stabbed by an Daesh group follower in 2021, called for an apology from Kneecap.
In its denial issued late on Monday, Kneecap said video footage had been “deliberately taken out of context.
“Let us be unequivocal: we do not, and have never, supported Hamas or Hezbollah,” it said, adding the band would never “seek to incite violence against any MP or individual. Ever.”
“To the Amess and Cox families, we send our heartfelt apologies, we never intended to cause you hurt,” it said, also referring to Labour MP Jo Cox who was murdered in 2016 by a neo-Nazi sympathizer a week before the divisive Brexit referendum.
The war in Gaza followed an attack in Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s military response in Gaza has caused a humanitarian crisis and killed at least 52,243 people, mainly civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry.


UN chief issues plea over Sudan’s ‘relentless suffering’ in wake of civilian massacres

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres delivers a speech during a UN Security Council meeting.
Updated 29 min ago
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UN chief issues plea over Sudan’s ‘relentless suffering’ in wake of civilian massacres

  • Antonio Guterres says scale of needs to address ‘catastrophe’ is ‘overwhelming’
  • Civil war, now in its third year, has created the world’s largest hunger and displacement crisis

NEW YORK CITY: The UN secretary-general has sounded the alarm over the “increasingly catastrophic” situation in Sudan amid deadly battles and civilian massacres in Al-Fasher, a strategic city in the country’s southwest.

It came as UN rights chief Volker Turk said that the “horror unfolding” in Sudan “knows no bounds.”

At least 542 civilians have been killed in North Darfur State, of which Al-Fasher is the capital, in the past three weeks, the UN said on Thursday, warning that the true death toll was probably “much higher.”

Darfur has become a flashpoint in the deadly war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary.

Last month, the latter withdrew from Khartoum, the country’s capital, after an offensive by government forces.

The civil war that broke out in 2023 has killed tens of thousands of people and created the world’s largest hunger and displacement crisis.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in a statement on Wednesday, condemned the “appalling” situation in Sudan and highlighted deadly attacks on two refugee camps in Al-Fasher.
The massacres a fortnight ago at the famine-stricken Zamzam and Abu Shouk camps “reportedly killed hundreds of civilians, including humanitarian workers,” he said.

It comes as the Rapid Support Forces, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, seeks to capture the strategic city, the last major area in the region outside its control.

More than 400,000 people are believed to have fled the Zamzam camp in April, Guterres said.
The secretary-general highlighted his “deep concern” over reports of “harassment, intimidation and arbitrary detention” of displaced people at checkpoints in the city.

The UN and its partners “are doing what they can” to urgently boost emergency aid to the Tawila area of North Darfur, he added.

Many of the displaced who fled Zamzam camp in the wake of the attacks traveled to Tawila, a town west of Al-Fashir.

Yet the scale of needs required by the displaced is “overwhelming,” Guterres said, and that “desperate people,” mostly women and children, are crossing the Sudanese border into Chad to seek safety.

The response to the “relentless suffering and destruction” in Sudan requires safe and unhindered humanitarian access to all necessary routes in the country, he said.

The UN chief called on the warring parties to protect civilians in line with their obligations under international law.

Guterres renewed his appeal for an immediate end to hostilities and urged the international community to “act with urgency” to bring an end to the violence.

Turk, in his statement on Thursday, highlighted “the ominous warning by the RSF of ‘bloodshed’ ahead of imminent battles with the Sudanese Armed Forces and their associated armed movements.”

The UN rights chief described as “extremely disturbing” reports of extrajudicial executions in Khartoum State.

“Horrific videos circulating on social media show at least 30 men in civilian clothing being rounded up and executed by armed men in RSF uniforms in Al-Salha in southern Omdurman.”

Turk said he had “personally alerted” the leadership of both the RSF and SAF in a bid to highlight the “catastrophic human rights consequences” of the civil war.

“These harrowing consequences are a daily, lived reality for millions of Sudanese. It is well past time for this conflict to stop.”


Measles jumps borders in North America with outbreaks in Canada, Mexico and US

Updated 34 min 23 sec ago
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Measles jumps borders in North America with outbreaks in Canada, Mexico and US

  • North America’s three biggest measles outbreaks continue to balloon, with more than 2,500 known cases
  • Mexican and US officials also say the genetic strains of measles spreading in Canada match the other large outbreaks

NEW MEXICO: Dr. Hector Ocaranza knew El Paso would see measles the moment it began spreading in West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
Highways connect his border city with the epicenter of Texas’ massive outbreak, which is up to 663 cases. They’re the same roads used by thousands of families and commercial truckers who cross into Mexico and back each day.
“Diseases know no borders,” said Ocaranza, El Paso’s top public health doctor, “so as people are mobile, they’re going to be coming and receiving medical attention in El Paso but they may be living in Juarez.” It took a couple of months, but El Paso now has the highest measles case count in the state outside of West Texas with 38. Neighboring Ciudad Juarez has 14 cases as of Monday.
North America’s three biggest measles outbreaks continue to balloon, with more than 2,500 known cases; three people have died in the US and one in Mexico. It started in the fall in Ontario, Canada; then took off in late January in Texas and New Mexico; and has rapidly spread in Chihuahua state, which is up to 786 cases since mid-February.
These outbreaks are in areas with a notable population of certain Mennonite Christian communities who trace their migration over generations from Canada to Mexico to Seminole, Texas. Chihuahua health officials trace their first case to an 8-year-old Mennonite child who visited family in Seminole, got sick and spread the virus at school. And Ontario officials say their outbreak started at a large gathering in New Brunswick involving Mennonite communities.
Mexican and US officials also say the genetic strains of measles spreading in Canada match the other large outbreaks.
“This virus was imported, traveling country to country,” said Leticia Ruíz, director of prevention and disease control in Chihuahua.
North and South American countries have struggled to maintain the 95 percent measles vaccination rate needed to prevent outbreaks, said Dr. Jarbas Barbosa, director of the Pan American Health Organization. And a recent World Health Organization report said measles activity in the Americas region is up elevenfold from the same time last year and that the risk level is “high” compared to the rest of the world’s “moderate” level.
Measles cases have been confirmed in six of the region’s countries — Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Canada, the United States and Mexico — and investigating the disease’s spread is labor-intensive and pricey. The response to each measles case in the US costs an estimated $30,000 to $50,000, according to Dr. David Sugerman, a US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientist.
Measles at the US-Mexico border

The cases in Ciudad Juarez have no direct connection to the Mennonite settlement in Chihuahua, said Rogelio Covarrubias, a health official in the border city. The first measles case in El Paso was in a child at Fort Bliss, Ocaranza said.
More than half of El Paso’s cases are in adults, which is unusually high, and three people have been hospitalized. The health department is holding vaccination clinics in malls and parks and says hundreds have gotten a shot. The vaccines are free — no questions asked, no matter which side of the border you live on.
Communication about measles between the two health departments is “informal” but “very good,” Ocaranza said. Covarrubias said his team was alerted last week to a case of someone who became sick in El Paso and returned home to Juarez.
“There is constant concern in Ciudad Juarez … because we have travelers that pass through from across the world,” Covarrubias said. “With a possible case of measles without taking precautions, many, many people could be infected.”
Measles at the US-Canada border
Michigan health officials said the outbreak of four cases in Montcalm County are linked to Ontario.
The state’s chief medical executive, Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, expects to see more cases. Michigan has a 95 percent vaccination rate for measles, mumps and rubella, but it hides weak spots — counties with 70 percent vaccination rates and individual schools where just 30 percent of kids vaccinated.
“If we think about measles as a forest fire, we’ve got these burning embers that are floating in the air right now,” Bagdasarian said. “Whether those embers result in another wildfire just depends on where they land.”
In Canada, six out of 10 provinces have reported measles cases. Alberta has the second-most with 83 as of April 12, according to government data.
Case counts in Ontario reached 1,020 as of Wednesday, mostly in the southwest part that borders Michigan. In one of the hardest-hit regions, Chatham-Kent Public Health officials announced a public exposure at a Mennonite church on Easter Sunday.
“It sometimes feels like we’re just behind, always trying to catch up to measles,” Dr. Sarah Wilson, a public health physician for Public Health Ontario. “It’s always moving somewhere.”