Lebanon cannot be saved while it is controlled by Hezbollah

I have always been puzzled by Lebanese political talk shows. These shows go on for hours and hours, with the same guests — politicians and analysts — discussing the hot topic of the week. In reality, the hot topic is the same, as nothing really changes in the dynamic of Lebanon, and so they end up repeating the same analysis over and over again. They have talked for so long that they have stopped looking at the changes the world around them is going through.
There is a mix of denial, narcissism and nostalgia in Lebanese political media content. Regardless of their political affiliation, all the guests still assume Lebanon is the No. 1 priority of regional, global and world leaders. They keep expecting a miraculous outside intervention to come and end the political deadlock and catastrophic humanitarian situation the country faces. And so, every time world or regional leaders meet, they assume they will be discussing Lebanon as a matter of urgency. It is as if Emmanuel Macron will rush off his plane after landing in Scotland for the COP26 climate change meetings and run to Joe Biden and tell him, out of breath, “we must find a solution for Lebanon.” Even worse is that the Lebanese political media still thinks that France and the US can bring about a solution for the country.
Similarly, when it comes to regional affairs, everything in Lebanon is framed under the optics of regional rivalry. And the media goes on to ask stupid questions, such as will the Gulf states accept so and so for minister? It is all a complete delusion. Today, as relations with the Gulf states are at their worst, the Lebanese media asks why. What has changed?
This requires a two-part answer. The first is that the Gulf states did not change, Lebanon did. Lebanon has become Hezbollah. Full stop. Hence, all its activities toward the Arab neighborhood are malign. It is not necessary to go through these activities once again, as we all know them. The second point is that the world is changing at a fast pace and the Gulf states are focused on their own domestic progress. For the Gulf states, the so-called confrontation with Iran has become obsolete. It weighs nothing. In short, the Houthis’ drones and missiles, which are being intercepted almost daily by the Arab coalition air defenses, do not threaten the future of the Gulf states — but new digital and data competition does. So the Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, are focusing their resources on this new future.
What most fail to comprehend is that Lebanon has lost its strategic and geopolitical value. After the collapse of the strongmen regimes of the 1980s, followed by years of collapse in Syria, a Lebanese collapse no longer worries the world on a security level. The French president has put forward an initiative for Lebanon, but I am not convinced he is now sure it is achievable, simply because things on the ground look different than in a meeting room in Paris. On the ground, Lebanon is now Hezbollah and there is no way to change this through discussions. Analysts keep repeating that, if Lebanon is abandoned, then it will fall even further into the hands of the Iranians. My answer is: “More than now? How?” Hezbollah already controls everything in the country, including the military, security and politics — what more is there? And did you look at Lebanon’s backyard? Who is in Syria and calling the shots? The Italian military or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps?
And so the other point is that, although Macron’s Lebanese initiative holds a humanitarian view, there is also a will to keep framing the approach through the same old archaic view the Lebanese media still conveys. France, bringing the US along, has a 1980s approach to the balance of power in the region, and it will not work. Moreover, the Gulf Cooperation Council has rejected being solely defined by confrontation with Iran. It has chosen to be defined by what it achieves for the people of the Gulf, not by conflict. It seems some Western analysts and Lebanese media voices have not yet understood this.

On the ground, Lebanon is now Hezbollah and there is no way to change this through discussions.

Khaled Abou Zahr

They still want the region to be deadlocked in the 1980s with extortion and confrontation: A region where progress is forbidden and entertainment outlawed. It is as if they would prefer to see the IRGC model of repression and darkness spread throughout the region, rather than the model of peaceful coexistence and positive exchanges the GCC is focusing on today. It is, nevertheless, something the Lebanese who live and work in the Gulf understand and would like for their own country. Lebanon deserves this positive development. But it is just not possible if Hezbollah is the state. In the same way, any foreign support will be wasted unless Lebanon is free.
And so the thought that the Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, will throw resources out of the window and eternally and continuously bail out Lebanon or any other problem in the region is no longer valid. Lebanon cannot mend relations with others before it mends itself. This means it must stop framing things as regional geopolitical issues and start facing the domestic danger, which is Hezbollah. The latest events have proven that the country is fully under its control. More than regional relations, the Lebanese will soon see their country disappear under this oppression if nothing is done.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.