US tariffs: Trump imposes 10% levies on GCC countries; Syria, Iraq hit hard 

US tariffs: Trump imposes 10% levies on GCC countries; Syria, Iraq hit hard 
Tariffs have long been a cornerstone of Donald Trump’s economic strategy, rooted in his “America First” agenda. Shutterstock
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Updated 04 April 2025
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US tariffs: Trump imposes 10% levies on GCC countries; Syria, Iraq hit hard 

US tariffs: Trump imposes 10% levies on GCC countries; Syria, Iraq hit hard 
  • Egypt, Morocco, Lebanon, and Sudan received same 10 percent baseline as GCC
  • Concerns raised that even baseline tariff could have ripple effects across GCC supply chains

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council nations will face a 10 percent US tariff under Donald Trump’s new trade policy, aimed at addressing what he called long-standing unfair practices. 

While the GCC was spared the steepest penalties, other Arab nations were hit harder — with Syria and Iraq facing tariffs of 41 percent and 39 percent, respectively, followed by Libya at 31 percent, Algeria at 30 percent, Tunisia at 28 percent, and Jordan at 20 percent. 

Egypt, Morocco, Lebanon, and Sudan received the same 10 percent baseline as the GCC, reflecting their relatively stable trade ties with the US, particularly in oil and petrochemical exports.

While Trump’s tariffs are technically imposed on imports into the US, most GCC countries run trade deficits with the North American country, meaning they import more than they export.

As such, any rise in US prices due to tariffs on global goods could increase the cost of US-made or US-routed products being imported into the Gulf, especially in sectors like construction and electronics.

Hamza Dweik, head of trading at Saxo Bank, told Arab News: “Non-energy sectors in the GCC that are most vulnerable to the new tariffs include electronics, automobiles, construction, retail, and consumer goods.”

He added: “These industries rely heavily on imported goods, and the increased costs from tariffs could lead to higher prices for consumers and reduced competitiveness in the market.”

Dweik also cautioned that the region’s financial services sector may face challenges, as heightened global uncertainty could disrupt investment flows and impact regional financial markets.

Concerns have been raised that even a baseline tariff could have ripple effects across GCC supply chains, especially in metals, chemicals, and industrial sectors. 

Dweik said that global retaliation or trade spillovers are a possibility and could indirectly affect the Gulf economies.

“The uncertainty in policy and potential for rapid changes weigh heavily on global markets, including those in the GCC. The region’s focus should be on diversifying trade relationships and strengthening ties with unaffected regions to mitigate potential losses,” he added.

Oil exempt from tariffs 

In a notable relief for Gulf exporters, the White House has confirmed that oil and gas imports will be exempt from the new tariffs. The decision — which also applies to energy imports from Canada, Mexico, and Europe — is intended to avoid disrupting US energy markets and driving up fuel prices. 

For the GCC, this exemption protects the region’s most critical export sector, as oil and gas account for over 60 percent of Saudi Arabia’s exports to the US and remain a key pillar of Gulf-US trade. 

“Given the GCC’s reliance on oil exports, any global economic slowdown caused by trade tensions has the potential to negatively impact oil prices, putting extra strain on their economies,” said Dweik, adding: “The exemption helps mitigate some of these impacts, ensuring that the primary revenue stream for these countries remains relatively stable despite the broader trade disruptions.” 

Tariffs have long been a cornerstone of Donald Trump’s economic strategy, rooted in his “America First” agenda to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits. 

The president reignited this approach with sweeping new import duties, arguing that unfair trade practices have disadvantaged US workers for decades. 

Countries hit hardest by the tariff hikes — including China, the EU, Australia, and Japan — have sharply criticized the move, with several already imposing retaliatory duties on US goods. The sweeping measures have raised alarms globally, fueling concerns over rising protectionism, supply chain disruptions, and the risk of a broader trade war. 

While the GCC countries are not among the hardest hit, analysts have warned that the region’s exporters may still face rising costs, supply chain disruptions, and increased trade friction — particularly in sectors such as aluminum, petrochemicals, and industrial goods. 

GCC indirect risk from US tariffs 

According to a February analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence, countries including Saudi Arabia and the UAE — which maintain fixed exchange rates to the US dollar — are particularly vulnerable to tighter monetary conditions, as the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated to contain inflationary pressures stemming from trade disruptions. 

A stronger dollar could erode export competitiveness and weaken trade balances in these pegged economies. The report warns that sustained high US interest rates could also reduce portfolio inflows into emerging market debt, potentially triggering capital outflows and liquidity pressures — particularly in debt-stressed countries such as Egypt and Tunisia. 

Although Egypt’s position has improved through Gulf investments and an International Monetary Fund program, a prolonged US rate tightening cycle could undermine this recovery. 

Moreover, if oil prices fall amid global economic slowdowns, GCC oil exporters may be compelled to delay infrastructure spending, putting pressure on large-scale diversification programs.

Shipping giant Maersk has warned of the global ripple effects of the new US tariffs, cautioning that escalating trade tensions could disrupt supply chains and raise shipping costs worldwide. 

For the GCC region, which relies heavily on maritime trade for both oil and non-oil exports, such disruptions pose a notable risk. While Gulf oil exports to the US remain exempt, sectors like aluminum, petrochemicals, and industrial goods could be indirectly impacted by slower global demand and rising freight costs. 

Dweik noted that the GCC could potentially benefit from shifting global trade patterns — particularly if US tariffs remain focused on competitors in other regions.

Reaction of GCC equity market 

Regional equity markets in the GCC largely declined following the tariffs announcement, according to data from Bloomberg. 

Saudi Arabia’s main index, the Tadawul All-Share Index, fell by 72.78 points or 0.61 percent, while the parallel Nomu market dropped 0.77 percent at 12:20 p.m. Saudi time. The UAE saw the steepest declines, with the Abu Dhabi index sliding 2.86 percent and Dubai’s DFM index dropping 2.64 percent. 

Oman’s Muscat Stock Exchange MSX 30 Index lost 0.76 percent, Bahrain Bourse All Share Index fell 0.50 percent, and Jordan’s Amman Stock Exchange General Index declined by 1.70 percent. 

In contrast, Qatar emerged as an outlier, with all major indices showing positive movement. The Qatar Stock Exchange gained 0.46 percent, possibly reflecting investor confidence in the country’s diversified economic positioning and lower direct exposure to US trade policy risks. 

While oil exports from the region remain exempt from the new tariffs, market sentiment appears to have been weighed down by concerns over indirect impacts on key sectors such as metals, manufacturing, and industrial goods. The reaction underscores growing investor sensitivity to escalating global trade tensions and their potential spillover effects on regional economies. 

GCC actions to mitigate US tariff risks 

Although the latest US tariffs primarily target China, Mexico, and Canada, GCC exporters cannot afford to remain passive. With the US explicitly tying its trade policy to national security and reviewing all global trade deals under a “Fair and Reciprocal Plan,” Gulf-based businesses face increased exposure. 

According to PwC’s March trade advisory report, newly announced tariffs on aluminum and steel will apply across all countries — including the UAE, Bahrain, and Oman — overriding existing free trade agreements. The report also warns that duty drawbacks will no longer apply to these commodities, raising costs for GCC exporters and affecting competitiveness in the US market. 

PwC recommended that GCC companies urgently evaluate their exposure by modeling cost impacts, revisiting trade classifications, and leveraging tools like free trade zones and customs optimization strategies. 

Businesses should also strengthen trade compliance, invest in digital supply chain solutions, and explore market diversification to reduce US dependency. 

As the global trade environment shifts toward more protectionist policies, the report concludes that a “wait-and-see” approach is no longer viable for the region. 


Foreign currency sukuk issuance projected to reach $80bn in 2025

Foreign currency sukuk issuance projected to reach $80bn in 2025
Updated 08 July 2025
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Foreign currency sukuk issuance projected to reach $80bn in 2025

Foreign currency sukuk issuance projected to reach $80bn in 2025

RIYADH: The global sukuk market is poised to maintain its strength in 2025, with foreign currency-denominated issuances expected to reach between $70 billion and $80 billion, according to a new report by S&P Global.

In the first half of 2025, foreign currency sukuk issuances rose 8.94 percent year on year to $41.4 billion, driven by increased activity in the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia remained a key player, contributing 38.9 percent of the total market volume, as local banks continued to support Vision 2030-related initiatives.

Earlier this year, Fitch Ratings shared a similar outlook, forecasting that Saudi Arabia would remain a major driver of US dollar-denominated sukuk and debt issuance in 2025 and 2026. Banks in the Kingdom alone are expected to issue over $30 billion as institutions seek to diversify their funding sources.

The increase in global sukuk issuance came despite external headwinds, including new US tariffs and delayed interest rate cuts. S&P noted that issuers in core Islamic finance markets took advantage of brief periods of market stability to secure funding.

“We expect performance in the second half of the year to depend on the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East. However, since we don’t expect a full-scale regional war, we think the resilient foreign currency issuance trends observed in the first half will continue,” S&P Global said in the report.

“It will also be supported by the Fed’s expected reduction in interest rates. Therefore, we maintained our forecasts for foreign currency-denominated issuances to reach about $70 billion to $80 billion for the full year in 2025,” it added.

Foreign currency sukuk issuance had already climbed to $72.7 billion in 2024, a 29 percent increase from the previous year, supported by significant financing needs in Islamic finance hubs and fiscal pressures due to lower oil prices.

According to S&P, geopolitical tensions are not expected to significantly disrupt issuance this year. Instead, market activity will hinge on the direction of monetary policy, domestic liquidity conditions, and investment trends in key Islamic finance countries.

Local currency issuance

Despite the robust performance of foreign currency sukuk, total sukuk issuance globally fell 15 percent in the first half of 2025 to $101.3 billion. The decline was largely due to a steep drop in local currency sukuk, which fell to $59.8 billion from $81 billion a year earlier. Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE all reported weaker domestic issuance.

S&P attributed this to liquidity constraints in some markets and improved fiscal performance in others, reducing the need for domestic borrowing.

“For example, we have observed a significant drop in local currency issuances in Saudi Arabia, where banks’ liquidity is instead being channeled into financing Vision 2030. The drop was mainly underpinned by lower issuances from the government,” the agency said.

Shariah Standard 62

S&P also pointed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the implementation of Shariah Standard 62 by the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions .

In April, AAOIFI announced amendments to the draft standard following industry feedback but did not provide details or a timeline.

The proposed guidelines aim to harmonize key elements of the sukuk structure, including asset backing, ownership transfer, and trading rules.

“The implementation process following the amendment is also uncertain. This means that it is now very difficult to determine the implications of adopting the new standard on market performance,” S&P noted.

“The need to issue prior to the adoption of the standard may also abate since issuers and investors no longer perceive the disruption as imminent,” it added.

Fitch Ratings had earlier warned that the standard could significantly reshape the sukuk market and potentially increase fragmentation if adopted in its current form.

Sustainable sukuk

Sustainable sukuk issuance surged 27 percent in the first half of 2025 to $9.3 billion, up from $7.4 billion in the same period last year, according to S&P.

Banks, led by the Islamic Development Bank, accounted for nearly half of the total, followed by corporates from the GCC and Malaysia. These instruments fund environmentally friendly projects such as renewable energy and green infrastructure.

Saudi issuers dominated the market, accounting for over 60 percent of total sustainable sukuk issuance. S&P attributed this to the alignment of Islamic finance with sustainability principles, the central role of the Islamic Development Bank, and strong funding demand from local banks.

In January, Fitch projected that outstanding ESG sukuk globally would exceed $50 billion in 2025, with Saudi Arabia playing a leading role.

The total value of ESG-focused sukuk climbed 23 percent year on year to $45.2 billion in 2024, according to Fitch.

In February, Saudi Arabia also raised €2.25 billion ($2.36 billion) through a euro-denominated bond offering under its Global Medium-Term Note Program, including its first green tranche.


Saudi chocolate industry expands as Riyadh leads in manufacturing registrations

Saudi chocolate industry expands as Riyadh leads in manufacturing registrations
Updated 08 July 2025
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Saudi chocolate industry expands as Riyadh leads in manufacturing registrations

Saudi chocolate industry expands as Riyadh leads in manufacturing registrations

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s cocoa and chocolate manufacturing sector is seeing growing entrepreneurial interest, with the number of active commercial registrations reaching 3,532 by the end of June.

A report by the Ministry of Commerce revealed that the Riyadh region topped the list with 1,490 active commercial registrations, followed by the Makkah region with 909 and the Eastern Province with 416. Al-Qassim and Madinah ranked fourth and fifth with 213 and 149 filings, respectively.

The chocolate manufacturing landscape in the Kingdom has evolved considerably, establishing itself as the largest producer among Gulf Cooperation Council countries, according to a release by Mordor Intelligence, a market research firm specializing in data-driven industry insights.

“The industry has shown remarkable progress in adopting advanced manufacturing technologies and sustainable practices, particularly in response to increasing consumer demand for premium chocolate products,” the release highlighted.

The analysis, published in May, indicates that Saudi Arabia had over 1,000 chocolate-producing facilities in 2023, with Riyadh accounting for around 35 percent of these production sites.

It also notes that the country’s chocolate market is segmented by confectionery variants — dark, milk, and white chocolate — and by distribution channels, including convenience stores, online retail, supermarkets, and others.

The report highlighted that this strong manufacturing base enables the country to produce around 50 percent of its chocolate domestically, thereby reducing reliance on imports while maintaining high-quality standards.

The firm estimates the Saudi chocolate market size at $1.23 billion in 2025 and projects it to reach $1.53 billion by the end of the decade, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 4.5 percent during the forecast period from 2025 to 2030.

“The Saudi Arabia chocolate market is experiencing significant transformation driven by changing consumer demographics and preferences. With over half the population under 25 years old as of 2023, the market is heavily influenced by younger consumers who are increasingly health-conscious yet maintain strong chocolate consumption patterns,” the Mordor Intelligence study stated.

It added that this demographic shift has led to interesting consumption patterns, with “studies showing that two-thirds of Saudi children consume chocolate twice daily in 2023.”

The firm believes that consumer spending patterns in the Kingdom’s chocolate market reflect the country’s growing affluence and changing preferences.

“In 2023, the annual chocolate expenditure per person in Saudi Arabia reached $41, significantly higher than the Middle Eastern average of $4. This high per capita spending is particularly noteworthy given that over 66 percent of consumers in Saudi Arabia claimed they were willing to pay more for quality products in 2022,” the analysis said.

The study noted that the trend toward premiumization has prompted chocolate manufacturers in the Kingdom to introduce more sophisticated product lines and innovative flavor combinations.

According to Mordor Intelligence’s global chocolate market analysis, the industry is experiencing a notable shift in consumption patterns, particularly in established markets where sophisticated consumer preferences are driving product innovation.

“Europe stands as a testament to this trend, processing 35 percent of the world’s cacao and accounting for 45 percent of global chocolate consumption in 2022. Switzerland leads this consumption pattern with an impressive chocolate consumption per capita of 11 kg in 2022, setting benchmarks for premium chocolate consumption globally,” the firm said in its release.

It added that this high consumption rate has encouraged manufacturers to expand their premium product lines and experiment with new flavors and formulations.

The company further reported that global chocolate demand is rising, driven by increased per capita consumption and a strong gifting culture. It added that Europe leads consumption, accounting for nearly 48 percent of the market, with the UK and Switzerland having the highest per capita rates.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to 11,294

Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to 11,294
Updated 08 July 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to 11,294

Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to 11,294

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Tuesday, shedding 51.39 points, or 0.45 percent, to close at 11,294.07. 

The total trading turnover on the benchmark index reached SR5.32 billion ($1.42 billion), with 65 stocks advancing and 187 declining. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also edged down by 119.05 points to close at 27,343.79, while the MSCI Tadawul Index declined by 0.35 percent to 1,449.23. 

The best-performing stock on the main market was Arabian Centers Co., also known as Cenomi Centers, with its share price rising 7.60 percent to SR21.10. 

Arabian Drilling Co. also gained 5.66 percent to close at SR88.60, while Tourism Enterprise Co. climbed 5.49 percent to SR0.96. 

BAAN Holding Group Co. shares slipped 4.35 percent to SR2.42, ranking among the weaker performers of the day. 

On the announcement front, Alinma Bank launched a US dollar-denominated sukuk under its Trust Certificate Issuance Program, with the offering opening and closing on July 8, according to a Tadawul filing. 

The sukuk, which has a five-year maturity, requires a minimum subscription of $200,000, with increments in multiples of $1,000.

The bank noted that the sukuk will be listed on the International Securities Market of the London Stock Exchange, and issued in reliance on Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933. 

Following the announcement, Alinma Bank’s share price declined 0.74 percent to SR27. 

Meanwhile, Riyad Bank announced it had completed the issuance of US dollar-denominated Tier 2 trust certificates under its International Trust Certificate Issuance Program, with a total value of SR1.2 billion. 

According to a Tadawul statement, the bank issued 6,250 certificates, each with a nominal value of $200,000. These certificates will also be listed on the London Stock Exchange’s International Securities Market. 

Riyad Bank’s share price edged down 0.07 percent to close at SR28.88. 


Saudi Arabia, Kuwait forge AI partnership to advance governance, innovation


Saudi Arabia, Kuwait forge AI partnership to advance governance, innovation

Updated 08 July 2025
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Saudi Arabia, Kuwait forge AI partnership to advance governance, innovation


Saudi Arabia, Kuwait forge AI partnership to advance governance, innovation


JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have taken a significant step toward strengthening regional collaboration on artificial intelligence governance and innovation by forming a strategic partnership focused on advancing standards, research, and responsible development in the Artificial Intelligence of Things.

The Kingdom’s Artificial Intelligence Governance Association, which operates under the technical supervision of the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Kuwait’s Association of Artificial Intelligence of Things.

The agreement is aimed at enhancing cooperation on AI governance standards, promoting knowledge exchange, supporting scientific research, and driving innovation in the emerging AIoT sector.

A report by Boston Consulting Group published in April highlighted the Gulf region’s strategic prioritization of AI, noting that all GCC nations have launched national strategies to foster economic diversification and digital transformation.

The memorandum was signed by AIGA Chairwoman Dhabia bint Ahmed Al-Buainain and Sheikh Mohammed bin Ahmed Al-Sabah.

In a post on X, Al-Buainain said: “The agreement stems from a shared vision to enhance regional cooperation in artificial intelligence and its governance, and to build strategic partnerships that advance responsible and innovative AI policies and applications across the Gulf states.”

According to the BCG report, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are leading in infrastructure development and adoption, while Oman and Kuwait are working to expand their capabilities through global partnerships. However, the study pointed out that despite significant state-led investments, challenges remain in private sector funding, research output, and talent development, which hinder the region's ability to fully harness AI’s potential.

As reported by the Saudi Press Agency, the agreement marks AIGA’s first international memorandum of understanding, underscoring its intention to play a broader regional role in the responsible governance of advanced technologies.

The partnership highlights both associations’ commitment to supporting regional initiatives, strengthening governance frameworks, and fostering the exchange of expertise. It also aligns with national and regional objectives to develop knowledge-based economies fueled by emerging technologies.

In a statement, AIGA described the memorandum as a strategic move to deepen regional cooperation in AI governance. The signing ceremony was attended by senior officials from both organizations, along with representatives from SDAIA and AIGA.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Ahmed Al-Sabah, chairman of AAIOT, welcomed the agreement and described it as a “promising opportunity to exchange experiences and develop joint projects that serve the interests of our communities.”

He also emphasized that the deal supports efforts in both countries to advance AI capabilities according to the highest ethical and organizational standards.

AIGA underscored the importance of the memorandum, stating: “This agreement is particularly significant as it is the first international memorandum of understanding signed by the Artificial Intelligence Governance Association outside the Kingdom, representing a step toward expanding cooperation in the field of governance of responsible advanced technologies.”

The association added that the partnership aims to create new avenues for collaboration in setting AI governance standards, promoting research, and encouraging innovation in AIoT — all contributing to a more sustainable and ethically driven technological future.


Qatar’s international reserves rise 3.5% in June, topping $70bn


Qatar’s international reserves rise 3.5% in June, topping $70bn

Updated 08 July 2025
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Qatar’s international reserves rise 3.5% in June, topping $70bn


Qatar’s international reserves rise 3.5% in June, topping $70bn

  • Official reserve assets rose to 199.65 billion riyals
  • Gold holdings rose to 44.5 billion riyals

RIYADH: Qatar’s international reserves and foreign currency liquidity climbed 3.51 percent year on year in June to reach 258.88 billion Qatari riyals ($70.9 billion), according to data released by the Qatar Central Bank.

The reserves also edged up 0.29 percent from May, adding 744 million riyals during the month. The increase reflects the resilience of Qatar’s monetary framework amid global economic uncertainty.

Official reserve assets — which make up the core of the central bank’s holdings — rose to 199.65 billion riyals in June, marking a 4.46 percent annual increase and a 0.47 percent rise from the previous month.

The uptick was driven by higher gold reserves, stronger balances with foreign banks, and an improved reserve position with the International Monetary Fund.

Gold holdings rose to 44.5 billion riyals in June, slightly up from 44.3 billion in May. Special Drawing Rights deposits inched up to 5.26 billion riyals, while Qatar’s IMF reserve position grew by 81 million to 5.25 billion riyals.

Foreign bank balances jumped by 1.33 billion riyals to 17.75 billion, although the central bank’s holdings of foreign bonds and treasury bills dipped to 132.14 billion riyals, down 763 million from the month before.

In the wider Gulf region, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported relatively stable reserve positions.

The Saudi Central Bank posted official reserves of SR1.716 trillion ($457.7 billion) in June, slightly down from SR1.721 trillion in May but up from SR1.647 trillion in April. The total includes SR1.620 trillion in foreign currency reserves and SR81.33 billion in SDRs. The IMF reserve position stood at SR13.28 billion, while gold holdings remained unchanged at SR1.62 billion.

Kuwait’s reserves totaled 14.106 billion dinars ($46 billion) in May, compared to 14.633 billion dinars in April, according to the Central Bank of Kuwait. Foreign currency and deposits abroad accounted for 12.49 billion dinars, with SDR holdings at 1.33 billion. Gold reserves remained steady at 31.7 million dinars.

Qatar’s total international reserves comprise official reserve assets — including foreign bonds, deposits, gold, SDRs, and IMF balances — as well as other liquid foreign currency holdings.