Ties with Gulf countries have become a key focus of India’s foreign policy over the past 10 years, the latest report by the Council for Strategic and Defence Research shows, highlighting New Delhi’s special focus on Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Headquartered in the Indian capital, the CSDR is a think tank specializing in research on geopolitics, foreign policy, and military strategy. Its report published last month, “From Trees to Forests: The Evolution of India-Middle East Ties post 2014,” highlights India’s investment in bilateral relations with Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which are independent of larger global frameworks.

The effort to strengthen the connection started before Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, but it has gained momentum with his frequent visits to the six-member bloc comprising Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.

“In the last 10 years, India has substantiated this effort by filling crucial gaps in political, economic, and military contact with key states, with a special focus on Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” Bashir Ali Abbas, senior research associate at CSDR and the report’s author, told Arab News.

“In the last 10 years, the Middle East has also emerged as a strategic space for India, with new defense relationships, and economic visions which also fit with the Gulf’s own focus on economic diversification.”

While India’s relations with the Gulf region span centuries, it currently has the largest concentration of the Indian diaspora — about 9.7 million people.

“And India’s top oil suppliers at any point in time inevitably are at least three Gulf states. This alone necessitates that India pay close attention to the region,” Abbas said.

“In India, policy makers and official decision-making institutions have updated their understanding of the region, but more importantly its changing nature. This evolved understanding has enabled the rise of new strategic partnerships, and PM Narendra Modi is the only Indian PM to have officially visited all six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.”

By 2018, the GCC became India’s largest regional trading bloc, with an annual trade value of $104 billion in FY2017-2018. The volume that year surpassed India-ASEAN trade of $81 billion, and India-EU trade — $102 billion.

Currently, it is even higher, with the Indian government estimating it at $162 billion in FY2023-24.

In 2019, India became only the fourth state to establish a Strategic Partnership Council with Saudi Arabia, following Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to New Delhi.

During the Kingdom’s presidency of the Group of 20 largest economies in 2020, the two countries started to forge partnerships and bilateral programs that saw further development as India took the G20 presidency in 2023.

Over the past four years, the countries have since also engaged in a series of bilateral navy, air force and army exercises.

“Today, India sees Saudi Arabia as a strategic partner, with political and economic ties robust enough to also substantial cooperation in defense and security,” Abbas said.

“Given both India’s own Viksit Bharat 2047 development vision and (the crown prince’s) Vision 2030, India and Saudi Arabia are now driven by shared economic and strategic goals.”

With the UAE, India signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in 2022, following which their bilateral trade grew to $85 billion in just over a year. The number of multi-sectoral memoranda of understanding between Indian and Emirati public and private entities has since reached over 80, according to the CSDR report.

“India also sought to reframe other bilateral relationships where fresh opportunities had arisen,” it said, adding that New Delhi was “closing the Gulf circle,” with strategic partnerships signed with Kuwait during Modi’s visit in 2024, and with Qatar during Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani’s state trip to New Delhi in early 2025.

The relations “will certainly see a positive trajectory in the near and distant future — especially if it is backed up by greater avenues of intellectual contact,” Abbas said.

“Greater intellectual contact and an evolved popular understanding will enhance the strategic relationships between India and its Arab partners, through the injection of more ideas, perspectives, and actors who can work as champions for closer ties.”

ROME: Italians headed to the polls Monday on the second and final day of referendums that would make it easier for children born in Italy to foreigners to obtain citizenship, and on providing more job protections. But partial data showed a low turnout, well below the required 50 percent plus one threshold, risking to invalidate the vote.

Campaigners for the change in the citizenship law say it will help second-generation Italians born in the country to non- European Union parents better integrate into a culture they already see as theirs.

Partial data from Italy’s Interior Ministry published at 2100 GMT on Sunday showed that national turnout stood at 22.7 percent, just over half of the 41 percent registered at the same time of the day in the latest comparable referendum held in 2011. The polling stations close later Monday at 1300 GMT.

The new rules, if passed, could affect about 2.5 million foreign nationals who still struggle to be recognized as citizens.

The measures were proposed by Italy’s main union and left-wing opposition parties. Premier Giorgia Meloni showed up at the polls on Sunday evening but didn’t cast a ballot — an action widely criticized by the left as antidemocratic, since it won’t contribute to reaching the necessary threshold to make the vote valid.

“While some members of her ruling coalition have openly called for abstention, Meloni has opted for a more subtle approach,” said analyst Wolfango Piccoli of the Teneo consultancy based in London. ”It’s yet another example of her trademark fence-sitting.’’

Rights at stake

Supporters say this reform would bring Italy’s citizenship law in line with many other European countries, promoting greater social integration for long-term residents. It would also allow faster access to civil and political rights, such as the right to vote, eligibility for public employment and freedom of movement within the EU.

“The real drama is that neither people who will vote ‘yes’ nor those who intend to vote ‘no’ or abstain have an idea of what (an) ordeal children born from foreigners have to face in this country to obtain a residence permit,” said Selam Tesfaye, an activist and campaigner with the Milan-based human rights group Il Cantiere.

Activists and opposition parties also denounced the lack of public debate on the measures, accusing the governing center-right coalition of trying to dampen interest in sensitive issues that directly impact immigrants and workers.

In May, Italy’s AGCOM communications authority lodged a complaint against RAI state television and other broadcasters over a lack of adequate and balanced coverage.

Opinion polls published in mid-May showed that only 46 percent of Italians were aware of the issues driving the referendums. Turnout projections were even weaker for a vote scheduled for the first weekend of Italy’s school holidays, at around 35 percent of around 50 million electors, well below the required quorum.

“Many believe that the referendum institution should be reviewed in light of the high levels of abstention (that) emerged in recent elections and the turnout threshold should be lowered,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and pollster at YouTrend.

Some analysts note, however, that the center-left opposition could claim a victory even if the referendum fails on condition that the turnout surpasses the 12.3 million voters who backed the winning center-right coalition in the 2022 general election.