Attempt on PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s life shows destructive effect of pro-Iran factions on Iraqi state

The influence of Iran on its neighbor was felt in 2019, when pro-Shiite militia demonstrators attacked the US Green Zone compound. (AFP)
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Updated 17 November 2021
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Attempt on PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s life shows destructive effect of pro-Iran factions on Iraqi state

  • Iraq’s pro-Iran groups accused Al-Kadhimi of fraud after faring badly in the October parliamentary election
  • The November 7 drone attack on the PM’s residence is seen by many analysts as a warning from the groups

IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: In the early hours of Nov. 7, three quadcopter drones armed with explosives detonated inside the grounds of the official residence of Iraq’s prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, injuring seven members of his security detail.

Al-Kadhimi, who escaped with only light injuries, promptly released a statement appealing for calm. The question as to who was behind the attack, however, remained unanswered and open to speculation.

Topping the list of likely conspirators are fighters affiliated with Iraq’s vast network of Iran-backed Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi militias, also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Established in 2014 during the war against Daesh, these groups have since morphed into something of a fifth column within the Iraqi state, officially absorbed into the state security apparatus, but largely operating under their own chain of command.

They have carried out similar drone attacks in recent months, targeting US troops stationed in Iraq and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region with the aim of forcing their withdrawal.

If Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi was indeed responsible for the attempt on Al-Kadhimi’s life, it raises the question: Did Iran sanction the attack?

Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, believes the identity of the culprit or culprits behind the attack on Al-Kadhimi’s residence is murky by design, giving the Iran-backed militias the luxury of plausible deniability.

“Iran’s militia network, especially in Iraq over the last few years, has worked to create various splinter groups to claim responsibility for some of their more politically sensitive attacks,” Orton told Arab News.

“It isn’t clear whether these groups actually exist beyond social media — at most, they are cells answerable to preexisting Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-run militias.”

The IRGC and its extraterritorial Quds Force exert tight control over their Iraqi militia proxies, their personnel, training, finances and access to weaponry, including explosive-laden drones, and demand total ideological loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Such a brazen attack “does not proceed if Tehran does not want it to,” said Orton. “Again, exactly how this came about — whether it was an order from IRGC Quds Force leader Esmail Qaani or a Qaani non-veto of a militia initiative — we will probably never know.”




Security forces inspect the aftermath of a drone strike on the prime minister's residence. (AFP)

Then there is the question of whether the militias actually intended to assassinate Al-Kadhimi or simply wanted to intimidate him and send a message.

In May 2020, militiamen encircled Al-Kadhimi’s residence in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone in an apparent attempt to apply pressure on him. That was most likely because Al-Kadhimi has consistently sought to strengthen Iraqi state institutions, curtail the power of these militias, and restore genuine Iraqi sovereignty since he assumed office.

Orton, however, has little doubt the attackers were out to kill Al-Kadhimi on Nov. 7. “There has been a lot of analysis suggesting that this was a warning to Al-Kadhimi, rather than an attempt to assassinate him, but this strikes me as too clever by half,” he told Arab News.




If Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi was indeed responsible for the attempt on Al-Kadhimi’s life, it raises the question: Did Iran sanction the attack?

“Al-Kadhimi was injured in the attack and it strains credulity to believe that the IRGC agents who did this had calculated it to injure seven of his bodyguards and wound the prime minister, but kill nobody.”

The timing of the attack was also hardly coincidental. In October, Iraq held parliamentary elections, which had been a core demand of the popular grassroots protest movement that began in October 2019 against rampant corruption, unemployment and Iranian influence.

Several of Tehran’s consulates and missions across the country were torched by Iraq’s young protesters, who have increasingly come to view Iran as a foreign occupying power. Iran-backed militias responded by killing hundreds of demonstrators.

The protest movement nevertheless succeeded in forcing then-prime minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi to step down, clearing the way for new elections. However, the Oct. 10 ballot saw the country’s lowest ever turnout at just 41 percent.




The IRGC and its extraterritorial Quds Force exert tight control over their Iraqi militia proxies. (AFP)

Iran-backed political factions fared poorly. The Fatah Alliance won a paltry 17 seats, a substantial loss compared to the 48 they secured in 2018. Al-Sadr’s alliance, Sayirun, meanwhile, increased its share, taking 73 of the parliament’s 329 seats.

Given the desire of Al-Sadr and his supporters to reduce foreign influence in Iraq, the result came as a blow to Iran’s regional strategy. Insisting that the election had been rigged, militia supporters came out in strength to demand a manual recount.

Qais Al-Khazali, leader of the Iran-backed Asaib Ahl Al-Haq militia, joined the protests against the result the night before the drone attack on the prime minister’s residence, during which he accused Al-Kadhimi of orchestrating the “fraudulent” election results.

“The timing is surely related to the aftermath of the election,” said Orton. “The attacks on people close to Al-Kadhimi, particularly senior officers, a number of whom were murdered, began months ago, when the militias could see Al-Kadhimi forging a coalition against them ahead of the elections.”
 

Orton believes that Al-Kadhimi will stay the course in his efforts to cement the authority of the Iraqi state. “The prime minister is likely to continue his policy of trying to rein in the militias through legal instruments, whether it’s indictments for attacks on demonstrators or corruption,” he said.

But, as the Nov. 7 attack shows, Al-Kadhimi’s success is not necessarily guaranteed. “If Iran feels seriously threatened in Iraq, it has tools beyond a no-confidence motion in parliament to change the Iraqi prime minister,” Orton said.

Not everyone is convinced that the perpetrators intended to kill Al-Kadhimi, or that the message was intended solely for him.

“Certain Iran-backed militias with connections to both Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq were trying to send Al-Kadhimi a message to back off,” Nicholas Heras, senior analyst and program head for State Resilience and Fragility in the Human Security Unit at the Newlines Institute, told Arab News.

“But they’re also trying to signal more widely, to Al-Sadr, that they can choose violence if they are frozen out of the political spoils in Iraq.”

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Al-Sadr has burnished his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist by repeatedly calling for militias in the country to be disarmed and for their weapons to be handed over to state security forces.

“This attack likely occurred with the knowledge of Iran, but Iran likely tried to discourage it, and the attack happened anyway,” Heras said.




Al-Kadhimi has consistently sought to strengthen Iraqi state institutions, curtail the power of these militias

The question now is how Al-Kadhimi ought to respond to the attack. “Al-Kadhimi’s next move is fraught with peril,” said Heras. “He can escalate and take on these militias head-on and risk a civil conflict within the Iraqi Shiite community.

“But if he backs down and does not respond, he creates a bad precedent of tacit acceptance of this behavior that could establish a norm in Iraq for years to come.

“Therefore, Al-Kadhimi is most likely to go the route of police action, with arrests and trials.”

Twitter: @pauliddon


UN’s top anti-racism body calls for immediate Gaza aid access

Updated 09 May 2025
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UN’s top anti-racism body calls for immediate Gaza aid access

  • Civilian population ‘at imminent risk of famine, disease and death,’ statement warns
  • Israel has blocked humanitarian aid entering Gaza since March in bid to ‘pressurize Hamas’

NEW YORK CITY: The UN’s top anti-racism body has called for immediate humanitarian access to Gaza in a bid to avoid “catastrophic consequences” for its civilian population.

The statement by the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination — comprised of independent experts — came hours after the World Central Kitchen charity said it was forced to end operations in Gaza due to a lack of food.

It also follows a commitment by Israel to “conquer” almost all of the enclave, as well as disputes involving Israel, the UN and US over the appropriate way to deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians there.

The CERD committee is convening in Geneva for its latest session, ending today.

Gaza’s civilian population, “especially vulnerable groups such as children, women, the elderly and persons with disabilities,” are “at imminent risk of famine, disease and death,” the committee said.

The warning follows an earlier appeal by the World Food Programme, the UN’s food agency, which said that almost all food aid operations in Gaza had collapsed.

Late last month, the agency announced that the entirety of its food reserves in the enclave had been depleted.

Since March, Israel has blocked humanitarian aid into Gaza in a bid to build pressure on Hamas, which still holds Israeli hostages.

Tom Fletcher, the UN’s emergency relief coordinator, said last week: “Two months ago, the Israeli authorities took a deliberate decision to block all aid to Gaza and halt our efforts to save survivors of their military offensive.

“They have been bracingly honest that this policy is to pressurize Hamas.”

Expanded military operations by Israel in Gaza over the past two months “have dramatically worsened the humanitarian crisis and severely endangered the civilian population,” Friday’s CERD statement said.

The committee called on Israel to “lift all barriers to humanitarian access, allow the immediate and unimpeded entry of humanitarian aid, and cease all actions obstructing the provision of essential services to the civilian population in Gaza.”

The statement also highlighted worsening conditions across the Occupied Palestinian Territories, including in East Jerusalem, where Israel closed six UNRWA schools this week.

Philippe Lazzarini, the Palestinian refugee agency’s chief, reacted with fury over the move, describing it as an “assault on children.”

The CERD statement called on all UN states to “cooperate to bring an end to the violations that are taking place and to prevent war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, including by ceasing any military assistance.”


UN committee warns of ‘another Nakba’ in Palestinian territories

Updated 09 May 2025
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UN committee warns of ‘another Nakba’ in Palestinian territories

  • During the 1948 war, around 760,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes in what became known as “the Nakba”

GENEVA: The world could be witnessing “another Nakba” expulsion of Palestinians, a United Nations committee warned Friday, accusing Israel of “ethnic cleansing” and saying it was inflicting “unimaginable suffering” on Palestinians.

For Palestinians, any forced displacement evokes memories of the “Nakba,” or catastrophe — the mass displacement in the war that accompanied to Israel’s creation in 1948.

“Israel continues to inflict unimaginable suffering on the people living under its occupation, whilst rapidly expanding confiscation of land as part of its wider colonial aspirations,” warned a UN committee tasked with probing Israeli practices affecting Palestinian rights.

“What we are witnessing could very well be another Nakba,” it said, after concluding an annual mission to Amman.

During the 1948 war, around 760,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes in what became known as “the Nakba.”

The descendants of some 160,000 Palestinians who managed to remain in what became Israel presently make about 20 percent of its population.

The UN Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices Affecting the Human Rights of the Palestinian People and Other Arabs of the Occupied Territories was established by the UN General Assembly in December 1968.

The committee is currently composed of the Sri Lankan, Malaysian and Senegalese ambassadors to the UN in New York.

“What the world is witnessing could very well be a second Nakba. The goal of wider colonial expansion is clearly the priority of the government of Israel,” they said in their report.

“Security operations are used as a smokescreen for rapid land grabbing, mass displacement, dispossession, demolitions, forced evictions and ethnic cleansing, in order to replace the Palestinian communities with Jewish settlers.”


Iran, US to resume nuclear talks on Sunday after postponement

Updated 09 May 2025
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Iran, US to resume nuclear talks on Sunday after postponement

  • Fourth round of indirect negotiations, initially set for May 3 in Rome, postponed due to ‘logistical reasons’

DUBAI: Iran has agreed to hold a fourth round of nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday in Oman, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said on Friday, adding that the negotiations were advancing.

US President Donald Trump, who withdrew Washington from a 2015 deal between Tehran and world powers meant to curb its nuclear activity, has threatened to bomb Iran if no new deal is reached to resolve the long unresolved dispute.

Western countries say Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran accelerated after the US walkout from the now moribund 2015 accord, is geared toward producing weapons, whereas Iran insists it is purely for civilian purposes.

“The negotiations are moving forward, and naturally, the further we go, the more consultations and reviews are needed,” Aragchi said in remarks carried by Iranian state media.

“The delegations require more time to examine the issues that are raised. But what is important is that we are on a forward-moving path and gradually entering into the details.”

The fourth round of indirect negotiations, initially scheduled for May 3 in Rome, was postponed, with mediator Oman citing “logistical reasons.”

Aragchi said a planned visit to Qatar and Saudi Arabia on Saturday was in line with “continuous consultations” with neighboring countries to “address their concerns and mutual interests” about the nuclear issue. 


No milk, no diapers: US aid cuts hit Syrian refugees in Lebanon

Updated 09 May 2025
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No milk, no diapers: US aid cuts hit Syrian refugees in Lebanon

  • Merhi and her family are among the millions of people affected by Trump’s decision to freeze USAID funding to humanitarian programs
  • Since the freeze, the UNHCR and WFP have had to limit the amount of aid they provide

BEIRUT: Amal Al-Merhi’s twin 10-month-old daughters often go without milk or diapers.

She feeds them a mix of cornstarch and water, because milk is too expensive. Instead of diapers, Merhi ties plastic bags around her babies’ waists.

The effect of their poverty is clear, she said.

“If you see one of the twins, you would not believe she is 10-months-old,” Merhi said in a phone interview. “She is so small and soft.”

The 20-year-old Syrian mother lives in a tent with her family of five in an informal camp in Bar Elias in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

She fled Syria’s civil war in 2013 and has been relying on cash assistance from the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR to get by.

But that has ended.

Merhi and her family are among the millions of people affected by US President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze USAID funding to humanitarian programs.

Since the freeze, the UNHCR and the World Food Program (WFP) have had to limit the amount of aid they provide to some of the world’s most vulnerable people in countries from Lebanon to Chad and Ukraine.

In February, the WFP was forced to cut the number of Syrian refugees receiving cash assistance to 660,000 from 830,000, meaning the organization is reaching 76 percent of the people it planned to target, a spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, the WFP’s shock responsive safety net that supports Lebanese citizens cut its beneficiaries to 40,000 from 162,000 people, the spokesperson added.

The UNHCR has been forced to reduce all aspects of its operations in Lebanon, said Ivo Freijsen, UNHCR’s country representative, in an interview.

The agency cut 347,000 people from the UNHCR component of a WFP-UNHCR joint program as of April, a spokesperson said. Every family had been receiving $45 monthly from UNHCR, they added.

The group can support 206,000 Syrian refugees until June, when funds will dry up, they also said.

“We need to be very honest to everyone that the UNHCR of the past that could be totally on top of issues in a very expedient manner with lots of quality and resources — that is no longer the case,” Freijsen said. “We regret that sincerely.”

BAD TO WORSE
By the end of March, the UNHCR had enough money to cover only 17 percent of its planned global operations, and the budget for Lebanon is only 14 percent funded.

Lebanon is home to the largest refugee population per capita in the world.

Roughly 1.5 million Syrians, half of whom are formally registered with the UNHCR, live alongside some 4 million Lebanese.

Islamist-led rebels ousted former Syrian leader Bashar Assad in December, installing their own government and security forces. Since then there have been outbreaks of deadly sectarian violence, and fears among minorities are rising.

In March, hundreds of Syrians fled to Lebanon after killings targeted the minority Alawite sect.

Lebanon has been in the grips of unyielding crises since its economy imploded in 2019. The war between Israel and armed group Hezbollah is expected to wipe billions of dollars from the national wealth as well, the United Nations has said.

Economic malaise has meant fewer jobs for everyone, including Syrian refugees.

“My husband works one day and then sits at home for 10,” Merhi said. “We need help. I just want milk and diapers for my kids.”

DANGEROUS CHOICES
The UNHCR has been struggling with funding cuts for years, but the current cuts are “much more rapid and sizeable” and uncertainty prevails, said Freijsen.

“A lot of other questions are still to be answered, like, what will be the priorities? What will still be funded?” Freijsen asked.

Syrian refugees and vulnerable communities in Lebanon might be forced to make risky or dangerous choices, he said.

Some may take out loans. Already about 80 percent of Syrian refugees are in debt to pay for rent, groceries and medical bills, Freijsen said. Children may also be forced to work.

“Women may be forced into commercial sex work,” he added.

Issa Idris, a 50-year-old father of three, has not received any cash assistance from UNHCR since February and has been forced to take on debt to buy food.

“They cut us off with no warning,” he said.

He now owes a total of $3,750, used to pay for food, rent and medicine, and he has no idea how he will pay it back.

He cannot work because of an injury, but his 18-year-old son sometimes finds work as a day laborer.

“We are lucky. We have someone who can work. Many do not,” he said.

Merhi too has fallen into debt. The local grocer is refusing to lend her any more money, and last month power was cut until the family paid the utility bill

She and her husband collect and sell scrap metal to buy food.

“We are adults. We can eat anything,” she said, her voice breaking. “The kids cannot. It is not their fault.”


Kurdish PKK says held ‘successful’ meeting on disbanding

Updated 09 May 2025
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Kurdish PKK says held ‘successful’ meeting on disbanding

  • The PKK will share “full and detailed information with regard to the outcome of this congress very soon,” it said
  • In February, Ocalan urged his fighters to disarm and disband

ISTANBUL: The outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) held a “successful” meeting this week with a view to disarming and dissolving, the Kurdish agency ANF, which is close to the armed movement, announced on Friday.
The meeting resulted in “decisions of historic importance concerning the PKK’s activities, based on the call” of founder Abdullah Ocalan, who called on the movement in February to dissolve.
The congress, which was held between Monday and Wednesday, took place in the “Media Defense Zones” — a term used by the movement to designate the Kandil mountains of northern Iraq where the PKK military command is located, the agency reported.
The PKK will share “full and detailed information with regard to the outcome of this congress very soon,” it said.
In February, Ocalan urged his fighters to disarm and disband, ending a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.
In his historic call — which took the form of a letter — Ocalan urged the PKK to hold a congress to formalize the decision.
Two days later, the PKK announced a ceasefire, saying it was ready to convene a congress but said “for this to happen, a suitable secure environment must be created,” insisting it would only succeed if Ocalan were to “personally direct and lead it.”
The PKK leadership is holed up in Kurdish-majority mountainous northern Iraq where Turkish forces have staged multiple air strikes in recent years, targeting the group which is also blacklisted by Washington and Brussels.