Indians head to the polls in world’s biggest election

Voters queue up to cast their ballot outside a polling station during the first phase of voting for the India’s general election, in Dugeli village of Dantewada district of Chhattisgarh state on April 19, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 19 April 2024
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Indians head to the polls in world’s biggest election

  • Polling takes place in phases over the next six weeks, with results expected on June 4
  • Over 968 million people are registered to vote, with 168.6 million casting ballots on Friday

NEW DELHI: Indian voters headed to the polls on Friday for the first phase of the world’s biggest general election, in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is aiming for a rare third consecutive term.

More than 968 million people are registered to vote, with polling taking place over the next six weeks, as results are expected on June 4.

After April 19, the other voting dates will be April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1, with some states completing the process on a single day, and others having it spread out in several phases.

Friday’s polling was held in 21 states and union territories, including the most populous ones such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra, as well as smaller northeastern states and the northern Himalayan territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

In Kashmir, this is the first election since its special autonomous status and statehood were scrapped through the Indian government’s controversial constitutional amendment in 2019.

Chief Election Commissioner of India Rajiv Kumar told reporters on Friday that 168.6 million people were expected to cast their ballots on Friday.

“The preparations started, actually, two years back. Wide range of preparations … It’s a tremendous exercise,” he said.

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More than 2,600 political parties are registered in the marathon election and 543 contested seats in the lower house of Parliament. The party or coalition that wins at least 272 is going to form the government.

Modi is targeting 400 seats for the National Democratic Alliance led by his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, which has been in power since 2014.

He is challenged by an alliance of two dozen opposition parties — the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, led by the Congress Party, which has ruled the country for close to 45 years since its independence in 1947.

The key leader of the opposition coalition is Rahul Gandhi — the son of Rajiv Gandhi, a grandson of Indira Gandhi, and a great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, all of whom served as prime ministers of India.

While the opposition is trying to appeal to Indian youth with promises to tackle unemployment, free education and medical facilities, the BJP has deployed the same tactics as in previous polls — by mobilizing voters through majoritarian Hindu sentiment, despite constitutional provisions that make it a secular state.

Opinion polls show Modi as frontrunner, with 48 percent of respondents in the most recent survey released by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies last week naming him as their choice for the prime minister. Gandhi was second, preferred by 27 percent.

“Modi has created an image of a powerful leader, a leader who is not only popular in India but outside too. He has also created an image of not pandering to Muslim communities in India … This image of a leader who does not appease the Muslim sentiments appeals to the Hindu masses. Politics of polarization helps Modi to build an image and aura among a large section of the Hindu voters,” Prof. Venkat Narayan, political analyst and commentator, told Arab News.

“Then the use of social media and the mainstream media is also there to create an image and broaden Modi’s appeal. The media plays a great role in creating this image, they are soft towards Modi and do not ask critical questions.”

If Modi wins the election, he will become the second prime minister, after Nehru, to succeed in three consecutive polls.

“Modi is leading in the polls as he has created an image of doing a lot for different sections of the society. Besides, he projects himself as squeaky clean. People also think that as he has no children, he has no reason to be corrupt or be on the take,” Sanjay Kapoor, analyst and editor of the English-language political magazine Hardnews, told Arab News.

“There are other reasons for his popularity, which include adroit use of media and social media that control all criticism against him. Then there are issues of raising India’s global profile and pursuing an independent foreign policy.”

FUTURE FOREIGN POLICY

Whoever wins the election, the foreign policy direction is likely to remain broadly unchanged, except for India’s orientation toward Israel and Palestine.

Support for Palestine and Palestinian statehood was once an integral part of India’s foreign policy, but in recent years, under Modi’s rule, New Delhi has become closer to Tel Aviv, despite civil society protests breaking out across the country against Israel’s deadly war on Gaza.

“If the INDIA alliance comes to power, then we may see a change in our policy towards Israel and Palestine. The INDIA alliance is sympathetic to Palestinians,” Kapoor said.

“We expect that the INDIA alliance will also restore ties with neighbors like Pakistan, (and) revive SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation).”

The member states of SAARC — a regional intergovernmental organization and geopolitical union of states in South Asia — are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

The last biennial SAARC summit was hosted by Nepal in 2014. Pakistan was to host the summit in 2016, but it was stalled after India refused to participate, following an attack on an Indian army camp in Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-based militants.

VOTERS’ CONCERNS

According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies survey, unemployment emerged as the top concern for 27 percent of respondents.

Some 62 percent also said it has been more difficult to find a job in the last five years — during Modi’s second term in office.

“The biggest concern remains inflation and unemployment. The possibility of getting a job decreases if you study more. People are forced to leave India in search of jobs. Some have even gone as far as Russia and Israel,” Kapoor said. “The situation is really dismal.”

Rising prices and inflation were also a major issue — the top concern for 23 percent of the people surveyed by the CSDS.

“Women and the middle class are concerned about the rising prices. Modi is trying to divert attention from these main issues by talking about religion and temples,” said Shashi Shekhar Singh, associate professor at Satyawati College at the University of Delhi.

The CSDS pre-poll also revealed that despite the ruling party’s narrative promoting Hindu nationalist dominance to establish a majoritarian state in India, only 11 percent of respondents saw India as solely for Hindus.

But there were fears the reality on the ground could change if the BJP tried to amend India’s liberal and democratic constitution.

“Indian secularism and the very idea of a plural democracy is at stake,” Singh said.

“There is a fear that if the BJP comes to power with the thumping majority, the liberal and secular democracy will breathe its last. The BJP might lead the nation further down the path of a Hindu majoritarian state.”


Suspected gunshots near Israeli embassy in Stockholm prompt police cordon

Updated 2 sec ago
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Suspected gunshots near Israeli embassy in Stockholm prompt police cordon

STOCKHOLM: Swedish police have detained several people and cordoned off a large area in Stockholm after a patrol heard suspected gunshots, they said on Friday, with the Israeli embassy located in the closed-off area.
“A police patrol at Strandvagen in Stockholm heard bangs and suspected there had been a shooting,” police said on their website, adding that the affected area lay between the capital’s Djurgarden Bridge, its Nobel Park and the Oscar Church.
Several people have been detained and an investigation has been launched into suspected serious weapons crime, they added.

‘Hindu nation’: Religion trumps caste in India vote

Updated 21 min 7 sec ago
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‘Hindu nation’: Religion trumps caste in India vote

  • Modi’s strategy of appealing to pan-Hindu unity has reaped political dividends
  • Modi government accused of marginalizing country’s 200-million-plus Muslims

AGRA, India: Born at the bottom of the Hindu faith’s rigid caste system, voters like Anil Sonkar will determine whether Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns to power next month.

More than two-thirds of India’s 1.4 billion people are estimated to be on the lower rungs of a millennia-old social hierarchy that divides Hindus by function and social standing.

Politicians of all stripes have courted lower caste Indians with affirmative action programs, job guarantees and special subsidies to mitigate long-standing discrimination and disadvantage.

But Modi’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has established itself as India’s dominant political force with a different pitch: think of your religion first, and caste second.

“There are no economic opportunities and business has never been so bad for me,” said Sonkar, a 55-year-old fishmonger and a member of the Dalit castes, once disparagingly known as “untouchables.”

“But under this government, we feel safe and proud as Hindus,” he told AFP in the tourist city of Agra, home of the Taj Mahal. “That is why, despite everything, I voted for Modi.”

Modi’s party is expected to easily win this year’s national election once it concludes in June, in large part due to his government’s positioning of the Hindu faith at the center of its politics.

His government has been accused in turn of marginalizing the country’s 200-million-plus Muslims, leaving many among them fearful for their futures in India.

But its strategy of appealing to pan-Hindu unity, and directing the faith’s internal frictions outwards, has reaped political dividends.

“The BJP’s base among the marginalized has grown over every election since 2014,” political scientist and author Sudha Pai told AFP.

The party, she added, had successfully forged a new pan-Hindu political coalition by showing respect to the “cultural symbols, icons and history” of low-caste voters, and in the process furthering its goal of building a “Hindu nation.”

Caste remains a crucial determinant of one’s station in life at birth, with higher castes the beneficiaries of ingrained cultural privileges, lower castes suffering entrenched discrimination, and a rigid divide between both.

Modi himself belongs to a low caste, but the elite worlds of politics, business and culture are largely dominated by high-caste Indians.

Less than six percent of Indians married outside their caste, according to the country’s most recent census in 2011.

Modi’s political coalition has managed to bridge this internal divide by trumpeting a vision of a resurgent and assertive Hindu faith.

The prime minister began the year by inaugurating a grand temple to the Hindu deity Ram, built on the site of a centuries-old mosque razed by Hindu zealots decades earlier.

Construction of the temple fulfilled a long-standing demand of Hindu activists and was widely celebrated by Hindu voters, whatever their caste group.

Modi’s rise also coincided with the declining fortunes of caste-based political parties that had dominated politics for decades in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state with more people than Nigeria and its most important electoral battleground.

Many in the state accused these parties of directing welfare programs and other benefits of political power to their own caste groups, a situation they say changed when Modi came to power and made them available for all disadvantaged voters.

“The soles of my slippers wore off as I ran around trying to get a card for free rations,” homemaker Munni Devi, 62, told AFP at a BJP campaign rally over the din of frenzied drum beats and music.

“But Modi gave me one immediately after coming to power,” she told AFP.

The BJP has been able to unite a broad array of caste groups into a single bloc of support, but caste discrimination remains a fact of life both in politics and society at large.

Despite Modi’s own low-caste origins, the senior ranks of his ministry, party and civil service remain overwhelmingly dominated by upper-caste functionaries.

“Our lawmaker is from our caste and from the BJP,” said farmer Patiram Kushwaha, a Modi supporter reconsidering his allegiance.

“He cannot do anything for us because those sitting at the top don’t listen to him.”

More than two dozen opposition parties in this year’s poll have campaigned on a joint pledge to address the structural causes of discrimination by staging a caste-based national census and redirecting resources to the most disadvantaged.

Analysts nonetheless expect Modi to triumph convincingly over the opposition bloc, but Neelanjan Sircar, of the Center for Policy Research think-tank in New Delhi, said the BJP faced a monumental challenge in holding its coalition together over the long term.

“This balancing act of keeping together groups which don’t really get along with each other is extremely tough in the long run,” he told AFP. “At some point, you have to face the demons of those contradictions.”


UN reports improved prospects for the world economy and forecasts 2.7 percent growth in 2024

Updated 17 May 2024
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UN reports improved prospects for the world economy and forecasts 2.7 percent growth in 2024

  • The mid-2024 report says the world economy is now projected to grow by 2.7 percent this year and by 2.8 percent in 2025

UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations reported improved prospects for the world economy since its January forecast on Thursday, pointing to a better outlook in the United States and several large emerging economies including Brazil, India and Russia.

According to its mid-2024 report, the world economy is now projected to grow by 2.7 percent this year – up from the 2.4 percent forecast in its January report – and by 2.8 percent in 2025. A 2.7 percent growth rate would equal growth in 2023, but still be lower than the 3 percent growth rate before the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020.
“Our prognosis is one of guarded optimism, but with important caveats,” Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the UN’s Economic Analysis and Policy Division, told a news conference launching the report.
The report pointed to interest rates that are higher for longer periods, debt repayment challenges, continuing geopolitical tensions and climate risks especially for the world’s poorest countries and small island nations.
Mukherjee said inflation, which is down from its 2023 peak, is both “a symptom of the underlying fragility” of the global economy where it still lurks, “but also a cause for concern in its own right.”
“We’ve seen that in some countries inflation continues to be high,” he said. “Globally, energy and food prices are inching upward in recent months, but I think a bit more insidious even is the persistence of inflation above the 2 percent central bank target in many developed countries.”

The UN forecast for 2024 is lower than those of both the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
In mid-April, the IMF forecast that the world economy would continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023. And the OECD in early May forecast 3.1 percent growth in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.,
The latest UN estimates foresee 2.3 percent growth in the United States in 2024, up from 1.4 percent forecast at the start of the year, and a small increase for China from 4.7 percent in January to 4.8 percent. for the year.
Despite climate risks, the report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs forecasts improved economic growth from 2.4 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent in 2024 for the small developing island nations primary due to a rebound in tourism.
On a negative note, the report projects that economic growth in Africa will be 3.3 percent, down from 3.5 percent forecast at the beginning of 2024. It cited weak prospects in the continent’s largest economies – Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa – along with seven African countries “in debt distress” and 13 others at “high risk of debt distress.”
Mukherjee said the lower forecast for Africa “is particularly worrying because Africa is home to about 430 million (people) living in extreme poverty and close to 40 percent share of the global undernourished population” and “two-thirds of the high inflation countries listed in our update are also in Africa.”
For developing countries, he said, the situation isn’t “as dire” but an important concern is the continuing fall and sharp decline in investment growth.


Japan, US move ahead in co-developing hypersonic weapons interceptor as regional threats grow

Updated 17 May 2024
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Japan, US move ahead in co-developing hypersonic weapons interceptor as regional threats grow

TOKYO: Japan and the United States on Wednesday signed an arrangement to jointly develop a new type of missile defense system as the allies seek to defend against the growing threat of hypersonic weapons, which are possessed by China and Russia and being tested by North Korea.
The project was initially agreed between Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Joe Biden at their summit last August and reaffirmed between the leaders during Kishida’s April visit to Washington. The Glide Phase Interceptor is planned for deployment by the mid-2030s.
Wednesday’s agreement determines the allocation of responsibility and decision-making process, a first major step in the project, Japanese defense ministry officials said. They hope to decide on Japanese contractors and start the development process by March 2025.
Hypersonic weapons are designed to exceed Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound, posing a threat to regional missile-defense systems with their speed and maneuverability. Developing interceptors of them is a challenge.

Japan’s defense ministry called it a “pressing issue” and noted that hypersonic weapons in the region have dramatically improved in recent years.
Under the arrangement, Japan is responsible for developing a part at the interceptor’s tip that separates in space to destroy the incoming warhead, as well as its rocket motors, officials said.
Japan has earmarked 75.7 billion yen ($490 million) for initial development and testing of the interceptor, according to the defense ministry.
The cost includes making components for the two companies, Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman, that are developing the weapon in a competition led by the US Missile Defense Agency. One will be chosen for the project.
The MDA has estimated the cost to develop the hypersonic missile interceptor will exceed $3 billion, including Japan’s share of $1 billion.
The interceptors will be deployed on Aegis-class destroyers, like the ship-to-air Standard Missile-3 that Japan previously co-developed with the United States.
Japan has been accelerating its miliary buildup as it stresses the need to fortify its deterrence against growing threats. Japan has also significantly eased its weapons export policy to allow co-developed lethal weapons to third countries.
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This story has been corrected to say GPI stands for Glide Phase Interceptor, not Glide Sphere Interceptor.
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Follow AP’s Asia-Pacific news at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific


Using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine must align with law, Japan says

Updated 17 May 2024
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Using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine must align with law, Japan says

TOKYO: Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday it is important that discussions will be aligned with international law when asked about a US proposal for using the interest derived from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine.
“Japan plans to join the discussions at the upcoming Group of Seven meeting from this basic standpoint,” Suzuki said.