Despite praise for Pakistan, future of US-Pakistan relations remains uncertain

In his address to Congress, President Donald Trump recently praised Pakistan for helping the US capture the mastermind of the Kabul airport attack of August 2021 that killed several American soldiers. It was such big news that the US president made the announcement himself. The words of acknowledgement from the mercurial American president kindled some hope in Islamabad that its estranged relationship with Washington could be reset. Some four years ago, following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, ties between the two erstwhile allies went cold. 

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Trump’s word of thanks was a signal of renewed ties between Islamabad and Washington. After all, the idea that President Trump would praise Pakistan publicly was unthinkable just a few days ago. 

In fact, there had been some anxiety in Islamabad over an anticipated call from the US president for the release of former prime minister Imran Khan. Instead came public applause for the Pakistani government. 

Notwithstanding the optimism generated by the general success of the counter-terrorism cooperation, the future of US-Pakistan relations remains uncertain. With Trump’s America-first policy and a changing geo-strategic landscape, relations with Islamabad are not a priority for Washington at the moment. 

Increasing cooperation between the two countries on fighting terrorism has certainly helped melt the ice. Despite a souring of relations, contacts between security agencies remain active. The activities of transglobal militant groups in Afghanistan are major concerns for both countries. 

There is a need to build a relationship with the US beyond counterterrorism and Afghanistan, which of course would remain priorities.

Zahid Hussain

Soon after Trump’s praise, his key cabinet members including the US National Security Adviser, the Defense Secretary and the CIA Director appeared on different American TV channels and acknowledged Pakistan’s role. Such was the impact of Pakistan’s cooperation that the US National Security Adviser spoke to the Pakistani Foreign Minister after a long gap of three years. There was a complete change in the environment. 

But reports of a possible travel ban by the Trump administration on Pakistani nationals have clouded the prospect of normalization of relations between the two countries. The travel ban for Pakistan, along with Afghanistan, has reportedly been initiated based on a government review of countries’ security and vetting risks and is set to take effect as soon as next week. Any such steps could make things much more difficult moving forward. It will widen the trust gap between the two countries making it harder for Pakistan to cooperate with Washington.

With the end of America’s two-decade long war in Afghanistan in 2021, post 9/11 US-Pakistan relations came full circle. Inevitably, the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan has a huge impact on regional geopolitics. Historically, the engagement between Washington and Islamabad has been narrowly framed, dictated either by short-term security interests or the imperative to deal with a common challenge. It’s now needed to break out of this pattern in order to reset relations. 

There is a need to build a relationship with the US beyond counterterrorism and Afghanistan, which of course would remain priorities. The changing regional geopolitics have created a new alignment of forces. The growing strategic alliance between the US and India and the China-Pakistan axis reflect these emerging geopolitics. Pakistan’s growing strategic relations with China and escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing too cast shadows over future US-Pak relations. 

For Pakistan, the United States remains an important trading and economic partner. America is Pakistan’s largest export market and major source of foreign remittances. The United States has been one of the top investors in Pakistan over the last two decades. Pakistan has a growing technology sector that could be developed with US support. Pakistan also needs US support to achieve economic stability. 

But a re-setting of the relationship will certainly not be easy. It will be difficult to maintain even a transactional relationship in an environment of distrust. To break the ice, the two countries should start meaningful dialogue at the senior political level to draw a framework for a new relationship. 

Surely, Islamabad must cooperate with the US in achieving peace in Afghanistan but it’s not in Pakistan’s interest to become part of any new US ‘game’ in the region. The use of Pakistani soil for America’s post-withdrawal counter-insurgency strategy could suck the country into yet another conflict.

We certainly need to have a broad-based relationship with the US but should not get pulled into any new ‘game’ on America’s behalf. The resetting of our relationship with America will certainly not be easy. Pakistan needs to be extremely clear about its interests and priorities when negotiating the terms of the relationship.

- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Center and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.  X: @hidhussain