OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth

OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais speaking during the launch of the group’s latest report in Brazil. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares
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Updated 25 September 2024
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OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth

OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth
  • 2045 demand forecast up 3m bpd from last year’s outlook
  • OPEC extends forecast to 2050, with demand at 120.1m bpd
  • OPEC sees no peak demand, unlike BP and IEA forecasts

LONDON/RIO DE JANEIRO: OPEC has raised its forecasts for world oil demand for the medium and long term in an annual outlook, citing growth led by India, Africa and the Middle East and a slower shift to electric vehicles and cleaner fuels.

In its 2024 World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday, the group sees demand growing for a longer period than other forecasters like BP and the International Energy Agency, which expect oil use to peak this decade.

“Future energy demand is found in the developing world due to increasing populations, middle class and urbanization,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais during the report’s launch in Brazil, a country with which the organization is seeking to form closer ties.

Al-Ghais’ speech in Rio de Janeiro was briefly disturbed by a protester from Greenpeace.

A longer period of rising consumption would be a boost for OPEC, whose 12 members depend on oil income. In support of its view, OPEC said it expected more push back on “ambitious” clean energy targets, and cited plans by several global carmakers to scale down electrification goals.

“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” Al-Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report.

“Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready.”

OPEC expects world oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels per day by 2045, around 2.9 million bpd higher than expected in last year’s report. The report rolled out its timeline to 2050 and expects demand to hit 120.1 million bpd by then.

That is far above other 2050 forecasts from the industry. BP projects oil use will peak in 2025 and decline to 75 million bpd in 2050. Exxon Mobil expects oil demand to stay above 100 million bpd through 2050, similar to today’s level.

OPEC has been calling for more oil industry investment and said the sector needs $17.4 trillion to be spent to 2050, compared with $14 trillion needed by 2045 estimated last year.

“All policymakers and stakeholders need to work together to ensure a long-term investment-friendly climate,” Al-Ghais wrote.




OPEC wants more investment in the oil industry. Shutterstock

Higher 2029 forecast than IEA

OPEC also raised its medium term demand forecasts, citing a stronger economic backdrop than last year as inflation pressure wanes and central banks start to lower interest rates.

World demand in 2028 will reach 111 million bpd, OPEC said, and 112.3 million bpd in 2029. The 2028 figure is up 800,000 bpd from last year’s prediction.

OPEC’s 2029 forecast is more than 6 million bpd higher than that of the IEA, which said in June demand will plateau in 2029 at 105.6 million bpd. The gap is larger than the combined output of OPEC members Kuwait and the UAE.

In 2020, OPEC made a shift when the pandemic hit oil demand, saying consumption would plateau in the late 2030s. It has begun raising forecasts again as oil use has recovered.

By 2050, there will be 2.9 billion vehicles on the road, up 1.2 billion from 2023, OPEC forecast. Despite electric vehicle growth, vehicles powered by a combustion engine will account for more than 70 percent of the global fleet in 2050, the report said.

“Electric vehicles are poised for a larger market share, but obstacles remain, such as electricity grids, battery manufacturing capacity and access to critical minerals,” it said.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, are cutting supply to support the market. The report sees OPEC+’s share of the oil market rising to 52 percent in 2050 from 49 percent in 2023 as US output peaks in 2030 and non-OPEC+ output does so in the early 2030s. 


Emaar EC finalizes $903m debt restructuring deal with Saudi banks

Emaar EC finalizes $903m debt restructuring deal with Saudi banks
Updated 17 sec ago
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Emaar EC finalizes $903m debt restructuring deal with Saudi banks

Emaar EC finalizes $903m debt restructuring deal with Saudi banks

RIYADH: Saudi developer Emaar, The Economic City has signed final agreements with four local banks to reschedule SR3.39 billion ($903 million) in existing debt and secure a new credit facility.

In a bourse filing, the company — the developer of King Abdullah Economic City — announced that it had secured the deals on April 27 with Alinma Bank, Saudi Awwal Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi, and Saudi National Bank. This follows a non-binding term sheet signed in September.

The agreement consolidates existing loans, extends repayment deadlines, and provides a new SR287.2 million credit facility. The rescheduled debt, previously due between 2021 and 2029, will now mature on Dec. 31, 2033, with repayments starting in 2029.

According to a statement, the restructured debt is split into two tranches, with the second potentially extending its maturity to 2036, while the new short-term facility must be repaid by mid-2026, subject to an optional one-year extension.

In its official statement on Tadawul, Emaar, The Economic City said: “This rescheduling comes as part of the company’s announced capital optimization plan, designed to stabilize the company’s financial and operational positions and optimize its capital structure to enhance its ability to move forward with its growth plans.”

To secure the deal, the company pledged real estate mortgages covering 150 percent of the rescheduled debt and 175 percent of the new facility, along with account security and promissory notes.

The restructuring is expected to enhance liquidity and reduce financing costs, aligning with Emaar, The Economic City’s long-term strategy. Saudi National Bank is classified as a related party due to its ties with the Public Investment Fund, a major shareholder in the company.

The developer has been undergoing financial restructuring to stabilize its operations amid widening losses. In the first nine months of 2024, the company reported a net loss of SR1.15 billion, driven by a 74 percent decline in revenue.

In March, the firm strengthened its financial position through a SR1 billion restructured loan agreement with PIF, a key component of its capital optimization strategy that provided extended repayment terms and enhanced liquidity.


Saudi Arabia’s real estate brokerage contracts surge 97% YoY in Q1

Saudi Arabia’s real estate brokerage contracts surge 97% YoY in Q1
Updated 30 min 22 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia’s real estate brokerage contracts surge 97% YoY in Q1

Saudi Arabia’s real estate brokerage contracts surge 97% YoY in Q1

RIYADH: More than 96,000 real estate brokerage contracts were documented in Saudi Arabia in the first quarter of 2025 — a 97 percent annual rise, according to new figures.

Released by the Kingdom’s Real Estate General Authority, the data indicated that this worked out at a rate of 44 per hour and 1,066 per day.

This brings the total number of contracts documented since the launch of the real estate brokerage system in 2023 to more than 1.4 million.

The statement highlighted that the almost double growth rate reflects “customer awareness and commitment to implementing real estate laws and regulations that regulate contractual relationships, preserve rights, and create a reliable and organized real estate environment.”

The recorded numbers correlate with the authority’s aim to enhance the real estate investment ecosystem by streamlining procedures, creating more opportunities for investors, and fostering a competitive sector through the provision of accurate, transparent data via the Saudi Real Estate Indicators.

They also align with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goal of increasing homeownership to 70 percent by 2030.

The figures further showed that during the first quarter of 2025 REGA issued over 7,875 licenses across various sectors, including brokerage and marketing, consulting and analysis, property and facility management, as well as auctions.

Over 105,000 licenses were granted for real estate advertising, along with the approval of 10 new electronic real estate platforms, raising the total number of licensed platforms to 71 since the real estate brokerage system was introduced.

“This contributes to achieving the efficiency and quality of real estate transactions within a regulated environment that ensures the preservation of rights and enhances the reliability of the sector,” the authority’s statement said.

During the first quarter of 2025, REGA also processed 1,745 real estate reports and conducted over 23,746 electronic scanning operations, utilizing digital monitoring tools to review online channels and real estate platforms.

Real estate brokerage is defined as facilitating real estate transactions between parties in exchange for a commission, including through electronic means such as websites, social media platforms, and other digital tools.

Established in 2017, REGA works on regulating, supervising, and advancing non-governmental real estate activities, with a core objective of attracting investment to the sector in line with its overarching strategic vision.

The Kingdom’s real estate sector continues to draw international attention, with high-net-worth individuals from nine Muslim-majority countries preparing to commit $2 billion toward property purchases in Makkah and Madinah, according to a report released by Knight Frank earlier this month.

The findings showed that 84 percent of global HNWIs surveyed expressed interest in acquiring property in Saudi Arabia — with a clear preference for its two holy cities.  

Nearly half, or 48 percent, of those respondents said they plan to use homes in Makkah as their main residence, pointing to a shift toward long-term occupancy rather than seasonal or purely investment-driven holdings.


Oil Updates — prices nudge higher amid economic uncertainty, OPEC+ supply fears

Oil Updates — prices nudge higher amid economic uncertainty, OPEC+ supply fears
Updated 28 April 2025
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Oil Updates — prices nudge higher amid economic uncertainty, OPEC+ supply fears

Oil Updates — prices nudge higher amid economic uncertainty, OPEC+ supply fears

NEW DELHI: Oil prices inched higher on Monday though remained dogged by uncertainty over trade talks between the US and China, clouding the outlook for global growth and fuel demand, while the prospect of OPEC+ raising supply cast more gloom.

Brent crude futures were up 4 cents, or 0.06 percent, at $66.91 a barrel, as of 11:12 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.09 cents, or 0.14 percent, to $63.11 a barrel.

Both benchmarks nudged higher for a third session.

“Absence of news is pushing oil prices modestly higher as traders are positioned short ahead of potential increased OPEC+ supply from the May 5 meeting and a significant production boost in the USA,” Michael McCarthy, chief executive officer of online trading platform Moomoo Australia.

Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to suggest that the group accelerates oil output hikes for a second consecutive month when they meet on May 5.

Expectations of oversupply and concerns about the impact of tariffs on the global economy caused Brent and WTI to fall by more than 1 percent last week.

The market has been rocked by conflicting signals from US President Donald Trump and Beijing over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that threatens to sap global growth.

“Market players will remain on the lookout for a thaw in the US-China trade war as an opportunity to buy,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

In the latest comment from Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday did not back Trump’s assertion that negotiations with China were under way. Earlier, Beijing denied any talks were taking place.

Many participants in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings said Trump’s administration was still conflicted in its demands from trading partners hit with his sweeping tariffs.

Investors are also watching nuclear talks between Iran and the United States in Oman which continue this week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he remained “extremely cautious” about the success of the negotiations.

In Iran, a powerful explosion at its biggest port of Bandar Abbas has killed at least 40, with more than 1,200 people injured, state media reported on Sunday.

On Sunday, top officials in the Trump administration pressed Russia and Ukraine to make headway on a peace deal following a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Vatican a day earlier.


Saudi Arabia to power data platforms with AI to drive Vision 2030 goals

Saudi Arabia to power data platforms with AI to drive Vision 2030 goals
Updated 27 April 2025
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Saudi Arabia to power data platforms with AI to drive Vision 2030 goals

Saudi Arabia to power data platforms with AI to drive Vision 2030 goals
  • Officials pledge major upgrades in statistical systems to enhance decision-making and global competitiveness

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia plans to enhance its data platforms, strengthen digital transformation, and use artificial intelligence and modern technologies to improve statistical operations and data accuracy, according to a minister.

In his opening remarks at the first Saudi Statistics Forum held from April 27–28 in Riyadh, Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Al-Ibrahim said the Kingdom aims to build a modern, accessible, and globally competitive data ecosystem to support decision-making aligned with Vision 2030.

“In the coming phase, we will continue to develop data platforms, strengthen the digital transformation journey, and leverage administrative data, artificial intelligence, and modern technologies to further improve statistical operations, enhance data accuracy, and facilitate easier access to information,” Al-Ibrahim said.

He added: “Today, Saudi Arabia stands as an international platform for showcasing achievements, sharing success stories with the global community, accelerating the pace of development, and maximizing positive impact both locally and internationally in the field of statistics.”

The minister emphasized that the country will continue to develop administrative data systems and adopt modern technologies to improve the accuracy and accessibility of information across sectors. 

The forum coincides with the 65th anniversary of establishing official statistical work in the Kingdom. This journey has witnessed the sector undergo transformative shifts toward higher quality and greater transparency. 

“Transparency is crucial in supporting evidence-based decisions, especially given international challenges that highlight the need to develop statistical systems, adopt high-performance standards, and enhance the speed and efficiency of decision-making,” Al-Ibrahim. 

He continued: “Today, many national and international statistical agencies and organizations are participating in this forum with the aim of transferring expertise, sharing pioneering experiences in statistical methodologies and best practices, and showcasing modern approaches to innovation and statistical development.”

The minister emphasized the crucial role of accurate, timely data in enabling evidence-based policymaking, particularly in the face of global challenges, and highlighted the need for resilient and agile statistical systems. 

“Saudi Arabia today stands as an international platform for showcasing achievements, sharing success stories, and accelerating positive impact both locally and globally in the field of statistics,” Al-Ibrahim added. 

The forum comes as Saudi Arabia prepares to host the Sixth UN World Data Forum in Riyadh in November 2026. 

During the event, Fahad Al-Dossari, president of GASTAT, reiterated the authority’s commitment to supporting decision-makers by continuously developing the statistical system to meet national and international standards. 

“Statistics are no longer merely supportive tools; today, they are at the heart of development work and a critical enabler of sustainable development, ensuring efficient spending, enhancing service quality, and supporting economic and social growth,” Al-Dossari said. 

He noted that the authority has recently launched a number of strategic initiatives aimed at achieving full digital transformation in statistical operations, including promoting statistical innovation, enhancing the use of AI technologies, analyzing big data, and updating methodologies to align with best global practices. 

As part of its efforts to meet rising demands for data in a rapidly evolving economy, GASTAT introduced around 39 new statistical products in 2023. 

These products aim to deliver greater detail, broaden sector coverage, and enhance regional statistics to better inform both public policies and private sector investments. 

Al-Dossari stressed that continuous collaboration between GASTAT and its partners in the government, private sector, and academic institutions is key to ensuring the success of Saudi Arabia’s broader data agenda. 

He also highlighted the importance of national surveys as critical tools for expanding statistical coverage and providing timely indicators. 

Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef speaks at the event. AN photo

During a panel discussion, the role of data as a foundation for industrial development and economic diversification was further emphasized by Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef.

“In the industrial sector, we cannot imagine that industry could thrive without infrastructure — whether in the form of industrial cities, energy supply, or other essential elements. Without this infrastructure, neither industry can grow nor investment be attracted,” Alkhorayef said 

The minister underlined that Saudi Vision 2030 targets specific sectors that require precise, regularly updated data, allowing investors to accurately assess market conditions, identify opportunities, and anticipate trends. 

Recognizing this, Saudi Arabia has taken proactive steps to institutionalize early technology adoption across sectors. 

“Today, there is a massive abundance of data, and the key question is how we can harness it to serve decision-making processes and reduce associated risks,” Alkhorayef said. 

He continued: “One of the risks we must be cautious about is relying on modern technologies without having accurate and trustworthy data sources, which can lead to misleading results despite the strength of the tools used.”

Therefore, here in the Kingdom, “we consider the early integration of technology as an essential part of all sectors.” 

As technology reshapes the world of statistics, the nation is positioning itself at the forefront of innovation in data management. 

Alkhorayef emphasized the growing global opportunity to harness AI and big data analytics to drive smarter decision-making. 

However, he warned that relying on modern technologies without ensuring the accuracy and reliability of data can lead to misleading outcomes. 

The Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority also plays a key role in regulating and accelerating the use of data technologies, striking a balance between strong legislative frameworks and rapid digital transformation efforts. 

“SDAIA combines regulation and ensuring the proper development of technologies with accelerating their use to serve our national goals, whether to achieve the objectives of Vision 2030 or to support investors in accessing data quickly and mitigating investment risks,” Alkhorayef said. 

He continued: “Thus, I believe the integrated system we see today positions the Kingdom as one of the best countries for attracting investments, thanks to the high level of reliability regarding opportunities and how to capitalize on them.” 

During the forum, GATSTAT signed memorandums of understanding with four countries, including the UAE’s  Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre, Qatar’s National Planning Council, Statistics Estonia, and Finland. 

The MoUs aim to foster cooperation and facilitate the exchange of expertise in the field of statistics.


Saudi Arabia, Qatar to clear Syria’s $15m World Bank debt

Saudi Arabia, Qatar to clear Syria’s $15m World Bank debt
Updated 27 April 2025
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Saudi Arabia, Qatar to clear Syria’s $15m World Bank debt

Saudi Arabia, Qatar to clear Syria’s $15m World Bank debt

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Qatar have agreed to jointly pay approximately $15 million to settle Syria’s arrears to the World Bank, a move set to unlock renewed development funding for the war-torn country.

The announcement came during the Syria Roundtable Meeting, held on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington from April 21 to 26, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The settlement will allow Syria to regain access to World Bank resources to support critical sectors and rebuild key institutions, the finance ministries of Saudi Arabia and Qatar said in a joint statement.

“This payment will enable the resumption of the World Bank Group’s support and activities for Syria, after an interruption that lasted for more than fourteen years,” the SPA report stated.

The renewed engagement will also facilitate technical assistance programs focused on capacity building and policy reforms to stimulate long-term economic growth.

Syria’s economy has been devastated by over a decade of civil war, with its gross domestic product contracting by 84 percent between 2010 and 2023, according to World Bank estimates. Inflation has soared, the currency has plummeted, and over 90 percent of Syrians now live below the poverty line.

International sanctions, particularly the US Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2020, have further isolated Syria from global financial systems, compounding its economic collapse.

Syria’s ties with the World Bank had frayed since the mid-1990s, when debt repayment disputes led to a suspension of support. The prolonged lack of access to international funding severely hampered reconstruction efforts during the conflict.

However, following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad in December and the formation of a transitional government, Syria has begun re-engaging with the global community.

During the Washington meetings, Saudi Arabia and Qatar urged international and regional financial institutions to swiftly resume and expand their development activities in Syria. They emphasized the need for a collective effort to help the Syrian people achieve a future marked by stability, dignity, and shared regional prosperity.