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LONDON: In the Damascus suburb of Ashrafiyat Sahnaya, the sounds of prayer bells and muezzins used to blend peacefully into the rhythm of daily life. Here, families from Syria’s diverse communities — Sunni, Druze, Christian, and Alawite — shared neighbors’ bread and exchanged Eid and Christmas greetings with equal sincerity. But that culture of mutual respect, already strained by more than a decade of civil war, is now on the brink of disappearing altogether.

A small audio clip uploaded online in late April was all it took to set off a chain of disruptive events. Within days, Syria’s fragile social compact broke down in places thought to be stable. Violent clashes erupted between armed groups and civilians. Security forces, once seen as protectors in these moments of tension, were either absent or accused of collusion. Entire neighborhoods were transformed into battlefields.

For observers of Syria’s long and bloodied path since 2011, the resurgence of sectarian strife in recent months is a warning less about the past than about the road ahead. With a transitional government led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa trying to navigate a volatile political landscape, and with major world powers distracted by other crises, some of Syria’s minorities are wondering where they belong in the nation’s future.

The message of these regional analysts can be summed up thus: The Syrian government must be willing to listen to its citizens and open the door to political change — not military solutions or rule by militias. It must embrace and engage the country’s diverse ethnic and religious communities and commit to political inclusion.

The latest wave of unrest began on April 26 when the audio clip — whose authenticity remains unverified — circulated across messaging platforms. The man accused of criticizing Prophet Muhammad in the voice recording was Marwan Kiwan, a respected Druze scholar known for his initiatives in interfaith dialogue. Kiwan quickly issued a video denial, saying: “Whoever made this is evil and wants to incite strife between components of the Syrian people.” His words did little to contain the rage.

The Druze, a small religious community that makes up about 3 percent of Syria’s population, have long walked a delicate line between asserting autonomy and pledging loyalty to the state. But by April 28, fighting had broken out in Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya — suburbs once considered models of coexistence — between militants and local Druze groups.

The violence quickly spread south, to villages in Suweida — Syria’s Druze heartland — such as Ira, Rasas and Al-Soura Al-Kubra. At least 100 people were killed over the course of a week. Mortar shelling and heavy machine-gun fire struck residential areas. On Thursday, Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hajari condemned the violence as an “unjustifiable genocidal campaign” against his community. He called for international intervention to help restore peace. By Friday, May 2, at least 100 people, including civilians, were reportedly dead.

Other Druze religious figures took a more conciliatory tone. In a joint statement, they affirmed the community’s “commitment to a country that includes all Syrians, a nation that is free of strife,” the Associated Press news agency reported. They also urged the government to secure the vital Suweida-Damascus highway, a critical lifeline increasingly targeted by militants.

The authorities issued statements blaming the violence on “outlaw groups,” while local activists and human rights monitors accused pro-government militias of targeting Druze neighborhoods.

Amid the chaos, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that his government had carried out airstrikes near the presidential palace in Damascus on May 2 to “send a message” following the attacks on Syria’s Druze population. For many Syrians, this only added to the confusion — and to the perception that sectarian politics had become a tool for foreign manipulation.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, dismissed Israel’s posturing. “Israel has threatened the regime of Al-Sharaa by landing a few warning bombs, but it cannot protect the Druze,” he told Arab News. Worse, he added, the overtures could backfire. “Israel’s intervention on behalf of the Druze compromises them in the minds of many Syrians, who now accuse them of treason.”

Ghassan Ibrahim, founder of the Global Arab Network, went further in his criticism of Israel’s role. “Israel doesn’t care about the Syrian Druze,” he said. “It focuses on the Druze within its borders and projects a false message that it wants to help the community in Syria, rather than offering meaningful support.”

In a statement on Friday, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria said continued Israeli airstrikes could cause greater civilian harm and fragmentation.

While the situation “remains fluid,” it noted that a tentative agreement had reportedly been reached between leaders in Suweida and authorities in Damascus. Still, it stressed the government’s obligation to protect all civilians within its jurisdiction.

The commission also pointed to earlier violence in Syria’s coastal areas in March as evidence of the country’s fragile security and the urgent need for de-escalation.

Regional analysts echoed the commission’s concerns, warning that foreign interference and deepening internal divisions jeopardize chances of long-term peace. Many urged the government to double down on reconciliation and called on the international community to support inclusive, Syrian-led solutions.

For Ibrahim, the true path to peace lies not in foreign intervention but in inclusive, homegrown governance. “The less negative external involvement we have, the better it is for Syrians to sit down and talk,” he said. “That process still requires support, including engagement with the UN and other organizations, to help Syrians find a path toward political compromise.”

He emphasized that stabilizing the country requires sidelining armed groups and initiating a credible national dialogue. “This needs support from Arab states, neighboring countries, the international community — and even Israel, which must halt its involvement in the conflict,” he told Arab News.

Ibrahim urged the new government to break with extremist allies and pursue political reform. “The Syrian government must be willing to listen to its citizens and open the door to political change — not military solutions or rule by militias,” he said. “It must reach out to minorities and embrace Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious fabric.”

He also called on the government to engage with Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious communities and commit to political inclusion. “Syria has always been home to different communities, and it must remain that way,” he said, stressing that a more inclusive approach could “unlock reconstruction aid, ease sanctions, and rebuild trust in state institutions.”

Such measures, according to Ibrahim, would not only incentivize reform but also reassure minorities that the international community remains committed to their protection.

“Western governments would prefer a Syria that aligns with the West rather than fall under extremist influence again,” he said. “At the moment, it doesn’t appear that global powers are paying much attention to Syria — there is no real road map, guidance or incentives being offered. Syria today is being treated like Afghanistan after the withdrawal from Kabul — largely abandoned.”

Landis, the US academic, believes Western leverage over Syria remains limited. “The only leverage that the West has is sanctions, which are a double-edged sword; they hurt the people even more than the government,” he said.

Though many sanctions were eased in 2025, the US State Department reiterated in April that any further relief would require a verifiable crackdown on terrorism, disarmament of chemical weapons, and the protection of minorities.

Landis blamed the government for not hesitating “to call for a general mobilization to send irresponsible militias to go kill Alawites on the coast, where some 1,700, mostly unarmed civilians, were murdered,” adding: “Now, the Defense (Ministry) Forces have attacked the Druze, with no serious effort to stop the mobilization against them.”

Within Syria’s civil society, some analysts believe small, symbolic actions could yet help ensure accountability and rebuild trust. Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, pointed to one viral video in which an armed fighter is seen forcibly shaving a Druze man’s moustache — an act widely viewed as a cultural insult.

“A gesture as simple as identifying that individual, ensuring they apologize publicly, and bringing them before a court could send a powerful message,” he said. “These symbolic steps matter.”

He noted that various actors had committed abuses, including attacks on government security personnel. “That’s completely unacceptable,” he told Arab News.

According to Shaar, the broader goal should be to foster a sense of equal protection under the law for all Syrians. “That feeling has not been consistently present,” he said, emphasizing that the state “sets the tone for justice and accountability.”

Camille Otrakji, a Syrian analyst and longtime observer of the regime’s internal dynamics, believes the government is caught between contradictory pressures. “A significant gap — in values, priorities, and trust — persists between the government’s conservative base and a broader segment of Syrians, including ethnic and religious minorities as well as many Arabs, who favor a more inclusive and less ideological vision for the country,” he said.

Otrakji said while the government had acted to contain sectarian tensions, “the recurring unrest has deepened doubts — both inside Syria and abroad — about the government’s ability to maintain a stable and inclusive order.”

According to him, both sides of the political divide — government and opposition — are lobbying Western powers, with the regime portraying itself as a stabilizing force and its critics warning of ideological extremism within the ruling bloc.

“For Western policymakers, the path forward remains deeply uncertain,” he told Arab News. “Some argue that, however imperfect, the Al-Sharaa government represents the only viable vehicle for preserving a measure of stability in post-Assad Syria.

“Others see in the current leadership signs of deeper fragmentation and are preparing for the possibility of yet another period of disruptive — and potentially violent — transition.”

History has shown that sectarian wounds, once opened, do not heal easily. Iraq and Lebanon offer cautionary tales of what happens when multi-ethnic societies are left to drift without strong civic foundations. Syria’s challenge is arguably greater: It must not only contain current unrest but also address the grievances of millions of citizens displaced, detained or bereaved over five decades of Assad dynasty rule.

Syria has historically been a place where multiple religions and cultures coexisted — not always perfectly, but with dignity. That memory is still alive in millions of Syrian hearts. Unsurprisingly, many voices are emerging, calling for a tolerant vision that goes beyond sect or party. It is a vision rooted in Syria’s pluralistic past and projected into an as yet unknown future.